Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Weyerhaeuser Company
May 29, 2009
Forward Looking Statement
This presentation contains statements concerning the company’s future results and performance that are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on various assumptions and may not be accurate because of risks and uncertainties surrounding these assumptions. Factors listed
below, as well as other factors, may cause actual results to differ significantly from these forward-looking statements. There is no guarantee that any of the events anticipated by these
forward-looking statements will occur. If any of the events occur, there is no guarantee what effect they will have on company operations or financial condition. The company will not
update these forward-looking statements after the date of this presentation.
Some forward-looking statements discuss the company’s plans, strategies and intentions. They use words such as “expects,” “may,” “will,” “believes,” “should,” “approximately,”
“anticipates,” “estimates,” and “plans.” In addition, these words may use the positive or negative or other variations of those terms.
We make forward-looking statements regarding the company’s expectations during the second quarter of 2009, including the company’s markets, the effect of facility closures and cost
control measures in the wood products segment, fee timber harvests and log prices, demand and pricing for our wood products, decreases in raw material costs for our wood products
segment, increased expenses for annual planned maintenance in the Cellulose Fiber segment, the effect of potential alternative fuel mixture tax credits, demand and prices for pulp, home
sale closings and prices, earnings and performance of our business segments, capital expenditures and the timing of debt repayments. Major risks, uncertainties and assumptions that
affect the company’s businesses and may cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements, include, but are not limited to:
• the effect of general economic conditions, including the level of interest rates, availability of financing for home mortgages, strength of the U.S. dollar, employment rates
and housing starts;
• market demand for the company’s products, which is related to the strength of the various U.S. business segments and economic conditions;
• the successful execution of internal performance plans, including restructurings and cost reduction initiatives;
• the restructuring of the company’s business support functions;
• performance of the company’s manufacturing operations, including maintenance requirements;
• raw material prices;
• energy prices;
• transportation costs;
• performance of pension fund investments and related derivatives;
• contributions to pension plans
• the effect of timing of retirements and changes in the market price of company stock on charges for stock-based compensation;
• the level of competition from domestic and foreign producers;
• the effect of forestry, land use, environmental and other governmental regulations;
• legal proceedings;
• projected tax rates and IRS audit outcomes;
• changes in accounting principles;
• the effect of weather;
• loss from fires, floods, windstorms, hurricanes, pest infestation and other natural disasters; and
• other factors described under “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on Form 10-K or periodic reports.
The company is a large exporter and is affected by changes in economic activity in Europe and Asia, particularly Japan and China. It also is affected by changes in currency exchange
rates, particularly the relative value of the U.S. dollar to the euro and the Canadian dollar. Restrictions on international trade or tariffs imposed on imports also may affect the company.
Today’s presenters
VP – Chief Economist
Economic setting for 2009
• Aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are crucial to arrest the downward spiral
Decline in home prices triggered financial crisis
12
-4
-8
-12
-16
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QMDHO26N Source: Nat'l Assn of Realtors
Dramatic shift in available credit and tougher standards
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
-200
-400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Quarterly
QMDIR07A Source: FRB
Fed taking actions to stabilize financial system
4
3-month
Commercial Paper
2
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Quarterly
QMDIR52A Source: FRB
Aggressive action to stabilize financial system
2.5
Other
2.0 Mortgage Backed
Securities
Central Bank
1.5 Swaps
Net Portfolio LLC
0.0
Fall 2007 December 2008 April 2009
• Aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are crucial to arrest the downward spiral
• Dramatic drop in consumer spending has hit U.S. and global economies
200
-200
-400
-600
-800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Monthly
MMDOT02E Source: BLS
Consumer confidence near record low
120
80
40
2009 YTD
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Annual
AMDOT42C Source: The Conference Board
Serious drop in consumer spending
Total
-4
Excl. Autos
-8
-12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QMDOT26A Source: Census
Leads consumer to defer some purchases
0
1990 1995 2000 2006 2008 2009
Annual
AMDOT32E Source: BEA, *Weyerhaeuser
Economic setting for 2009
• Aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are crucial to arrest the downward spiral
• Dramatic drop in consumer spending has hit U.S. and global economies
-1
-2
-3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual
AMIOT03A Source: Global Insight
Net exports were helping, until late 2008
15 Exports
10
-5
Imports
-10
-15
-20
-25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QMDGA06C Source: BEA
Economic setting for 2009
• Aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are crucial to arrest the downward spiral
• Dramatic drop in consumer spending has hit U.S. and global economies
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fiscal Year Source: Congressional Budget Office,
AMDGA07G
President's Projected Budget
Signs recession will end this year
Forecast*
4
-2
-4
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Annual
AMDGA01A Source: BEA, *Weyerhaeuser
Key Messages - Cellulose Fibers
5 Rest of
World
4
Rest of
3 Asia
Japan
2
Europe
1
N.A.
0
2000 2008 2012
Annual
APLOTG02C Source: Starr, Weyerhaeuser CF Busines
U.S. South primary source of fluff
5 Capacity
Europe
4
3
Fluff Southern
Pulp U.S.
2
Demand
Annual
APLOTG12B Source: Starr, Weyerhaeuser
Excess inventory dampens prices
60 Softwood
Hardwood
55
50
45
40
35
30 Tight
25
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Monthly
MPLOTG82B Source: PPPC
Fluff pulp prices held up better
Pulp Prices
Fluff vs. NBSK, Delivered Northern Europe
$/Metric Ton
1000
Fluff X = Q1
900 NBSK
800
700
600
500
400
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Annual
APLOTP59D Source: RISI
Softwood capacity declining
11
Softwood Hardwood
9
-1
-3
-5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual
Source: PPPC, *Weyerhaeuser
APLOTG51G
Expect dollar decline to continue
0.9
1.1
1.3
(5/14)
1.5
1.7
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Quarterly
QMIEU09A Source: WSJ, *Weyerhaeuser
Summary - Cellulose Fibers
Papergrade
~0.4MM Tons
Operations Towel/Tissue
6 Manufacturing Facilities
35% - Europe
~0.2MM Tons
Specialty
Flint River, GA
Pt Wentworth, GA 35% - North
Columbus, MS Textiles
New Bern, NC
Rolls
America
Filter Media
Bales
30% - Asia, South
Absorbents America
1 “Converting”Plant ~1.3MM Tons
Columbus, MS ( “CMF”)
Diapers
Wipes
Cash cost of goods sold in 2008
Packaging,
Supplies & Other
7%
Energy
8% Fiber
31%
Labor Cost
10%
Maintenance
14%
Chemicals
14%
Freight 16%
Addressing the short-term, positioning for the long-term
VP – Chief Economist
Key messages – housing industry
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly
QMDHO06D Source: Census, *Weyerhaeuser
Foreclosure rate remains high
1.20
(Percent, Seasonally Adjusted)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Quarterly Source: Mortgage Bankers
QMDIR25A Ass'n of America
High vacant stock of units for sale
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QMDHO98B Source: Census
Affordability is now at record levels
180
2009 Q1
160
140
120
100
80
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Annual
AMDIR06C Source: Nat'l Assn of Realtors
All WRECO regions are below 2002 levels
150
120
90
60
30
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly
QMDHO65G Source: Bureau of Census
Housing prices down 65% from peak
600
500
400
300
Q1
200
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Annual
AMDHO103E Source: CAR
Housing affordability at record levels
40
30
20
10
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Annual
AMDHO63G Source: California Assn of Realtors, *Weyerhaeu
At current prices, houses are selling
600
500
400
300
200
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Quarterly
QMDHO51D Source: California Assn of Realtors
Summary - housing
• Another challenging year in 2009, but most of house price decline is behind us
• Varies by region
• Geographic diversity
• Customer satisfaction
Located in diverse and high-growth geographies
Unique brands with distinctive value propositions
High levels of customer satisfaction
Willingness to Refer
100
96
Percent
92
88
84
2007 2008 Q1 2009
Independent, third party research companies survey our customers
and ask if they would refer the builder to a friend or family member
Creating value through entitling and developing land
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Specific Plan or
Zone Change
Development Agreement
Citizen
Input
Tentative Map
Resource
Permits
Improvement
Plans
Final Map
WRECO residential lot position
Number of lots owned as of 3/31/09
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
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Total lots owned – 44,000; an additional 72,000 lots are controlled via option agreements
WRECO residential lots – dollars invested
Investment as of 3/31/09
$1,200
$1,000
Consolidated Totals ($ M illions)
Historic Cost * $2,500
$800 Impairments to historic cost -$900
Current book value of residential lots $1,600
$ Millions
$600
$400
Balance Sheet Classification ($M illions)
Real estate in process of development
$200 and for sale $700
Land being processed for development $1,200
$0 Less: Completed & in process home
inventory, and commercial acreage -$300
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* Historic cost includes land purchase price, entitlement and development costs, taxes, and capitalized interest
WRECO residential lots – California by sub-markets
Investment as of 3/31/09
$400
Totals ($ Millions)
Historic Cost* $1,100
$300
Impairments to historic cost -$300
Current book value of residential lots $800
$ Millions
$200
$100
$0
Inland Empire LA/Ventura Northern California San Diego
* Historic cost includes land purchase price , entitlement and development costs, taxes, and capitalized interest
Managing through the cycle
• Adjusted staffing
• 40% reduction since Q1 2008
• Additional 20% reduction by year end
Q1 April
30
140
120 25
100
20
Percent
Units
80
15
60
40 10
20 5
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009
Addressing the short-term, positioning for the long-term
VP – Chief Economist
Key messages – Wood Products markets
• Prices should rebound to cover cash operating costs for an average mill
• For lumber, need to see prices cover Canadian mill costs
• Canadian dollar is a major issue for both the lumber and OSB price outlook
Severity compared to earlier cycles
75
Capacity
65
55
45
Demand
35
25
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Annual
AWDNALGD01L Source: RISI, *Weyerhaeuser
All regions curtailed output, but bigger hit for Canada
60
Canada
40
20 U.S.
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly
QWDNALGP02A Source: National Forest Products Assn, COFI
Prices fell below cash cost to force closures
400
300
Cash Cost +
200
Export Tax
April
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QWDCLP08A Source: Random Lengths, RISI
Another anomaly: Douglas Fir below Spruce
40
30
20
10
2009 YTD
0
-10
-20
-30
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Annual
AWDWLPS02E Source: Random Lengths
In nominal dollars, prices back to 1982 levels
400
350
300
250
200
100
50
0
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Annual
AWDWLP08H Source: Random Lengths
But adjusted for inflation — 1935?
600
400
200
2009 YTD
0
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Annual
AWDWLP08I Source: Random Lengths
Canadian lumber delivered costs eventually drive U.S. lumber
and log markets
Canadian Share of
U.S. Lumber Consumption
Percent
38
36
34
32
30
28
26 Jan/Feb
24
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Annual
AWDCNLGD01A Source: COFI, AF&PA
Different cost structure in Canadian lumber industry
• In Canada, labor and energy costs account for 75-85% of total lumber
costs
• Much higher delivered log prices due to harvest and haul costs
• Stumpage is formula driven
• In U.S., labor and energy costs account for only 40-50% of labor cost
• Stumpage prices reflect logistic advantage and species premiums
For average mill to breakeven, need $25/mbf price lift
Q3 April
2007 2008 2009
Cash Costs in C$** 253 227 201
Cash Costs in U.S.$** 236 218 165
*Random Lengths
**Based on RISI Survey – Average B.C. Mill
Expect C$ to hold or strengthen in 2009
0.70
0.80
0.90 (5/14)
1.00
1.10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Quarterly
QMICA09E Source: WSJ, *Weyerhaeuser
Drop in housing revealed structural change
10
U.S.
5
0
2002 2005 2007 2008 2009 Q1
Annual Source: RISI Capacity,
AWDPNIMP09E Weyerhaeuser demand estimates
Reason Canadian output has collapsed
25
20
Canada
15
10 U.S.
5
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Quarterly
QWDNAPGD02D Source: APA
Shift has kept prices below cash operating costs
400
300
Cash Cost for
Industry Average*
200
April
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Quarterly
QWDPNLP04C Source: Crow's, *RISI
Summary - Wood Products
• Very challenging for OSB and engineered lumber in 2009-10 given low
operating rates
Wood Products
Tom Gideon
Actions Impact
Lumber z Announced closure of 4 mills z Total capacity reduction of 1.2 bbf
z Announced shift reductions at 5 mills
OSB z All mills now operating at 5/2 z Total capacity reduced by 2.7bsf
z 550 msf since Jan
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009
VP – Chief Economist
Key messages - Timberlands
• Log prices in the West fell over 25% during the last two months
• Log prices in the South are also adjusting, but not as severely
600
500
400
April
300
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly Source: Log Lines
QTLP24A
Western production now below early 1990’s
11
Jan/Feb
5
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Quarterly
QWDUSLGP01H Source: WWPA
Southern log prices have held up better
450
400
350
300
250
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Quarterly
QTLP03D Source: Timber Mart-South
Timberland prices reflect long-term outlook
Mobile Homes
2.0 Replacements Multi-Family
and other Single-Family
Household Growth
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980s 1990s 2000-07
68
66
64
62
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Annual
AMDHO29K Source: Census, *Weyerhaeuser
Expect favorable single-family housing starts even if
ownership trends lower
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980s 1990s 2000-07 2008-10 2011-15
70 Trend
60
50
40
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Annual
AWDNALGD01A Source: RISI, *Weyerhaeuser
Reason lumber capacity expected to decline by 2015
Inventory
Adjustment
40
20
0
2005 Base AAC 2006-10 2015+
Annual Source: BCMOF
ATLG07C
Trend value for U.S. timber driven by Canadian costs
40
30
20
10
0
1976 1985 1995 2005 2008 2015
2008 2011-15*
In Canadian $/MBF
Net Wood Cost 121 189
Manufacturing 99 110
Margin 27 34
_______ ________
2011-15*
SPF 2X4 (MBF) $295-$310
Plus historic spread 25
Appreciation/Supply Scarcity
Biofuels
Carbon
Real Estate/HBU
XTLG19A
Summary - Timberlands
Thousands of Acres
Fee Long-term Total Fee and License
Ownership Lease Lease Arrangements
U.S. West 2,220 2,220
U.S. South 3,433 696 4,129
Canada 15,178
Uruguay 321 26 347
China 52
Total 5,974 722 6,696 15,230
Tree species
Other
9%
Logging
23%
Canadian
Operations
18%
International
Operations
Hauling &
3%
Roads
23%
Forestry
10%
Marketing/Handling
4% Export OSP
10%
Cash costs of production in 2008
U.S.
32% 33% 3% 20% 0% 12%
South
Sustainable harvest availability
20
15
10
0
2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018
Actual Estimated Availability
Deferring harvest in 2009
5
Millions of Cubic Meters
0
Q1 2008 Actual Harvest Q1 2009 Actual Harvest
Minerals