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CLIMATE CHANGE
Peter B. Reich
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more solidly based on data than previous simple approximations. On page 838, Mahecha
et al. (2) assess how ecosystem respiration
(R) is related to temperature over short (weekto-month) and long (annual) time scales, and
nd a potentially important but difcult-tointerpret relationship.
Beer et al. focus on quantifying GPP
locally and globally. They use general relationships between GPP and several drivers,
such as temperature, rainfall, and biome type,
to characterize and estimate GPP at 352 sites.
Then, they use ve approaches to extrapolate to global estimates; these include three
statistical models, estimating GPP indirectly
from data on catchment water ux, and modeling GPP from satellite-based estimates of
light interception by vegetation. They make
an important advance by better quantifying
(i) global GPP and the uncertainty surrounding this estimate; (ii) spatial patterns of GPP
(how much comes from tropical or boreal forests or from other biomes); and (iii) controls
on GPP, such as by rainfall and temperature.
Beer et al. note that each of the five
approaches includes simplifying assumptions and large uncertainties. They produced
estimates of global GPP that vary from 105
to 130 Pg C year1, with a 95% probability
that the value lies between 102 and 135 Pg C
year1. This is an advance, yet it shows how
far we still are from an accurate estimate of
global GPP. The 33 Pg C year1 difference
between the low and high values, for instance,
is roughly four times the annual CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning.
Mahecha et al. address the other half of
the land-atmosphere CO2 ux. Unlike GPP,
PERSPECTIVES
which represents a single proabundance, and food supply of soil
Increases apparent R sensitivity to temperature
cess (photosynthesis) involving
microbes can also result in a low Q10
Reduces apparent R sensitivity to temperature
a single tissue (leaves), R repreat the week-to-month scale.
Apparent R sensitivity switches from increased to decreased
sents the aggregate CO2 ux from
Regardless of the difficulty of
Apparent R sensitivity can either be increased or decreased
the metabolic activities of myriad
interpreting the processes underlyVegetation composition community change
organisms. The players include
ing these numbers, the ndings are
plants, their mutualists (mycorimportant. Beer et al.s value for
rhizal fungi), and decomposers
GPP is our best and most broadMicrobial community change (composition, abundance)
(soil microorganisms). Each has
based estimate, despite its uncercellular processes that respond
tainty. Mahecha et al.s results are
Physiochemical protection of soil organic matter
almost instantaneously to temimportant because they suggest
perature changes (3, 4). However,
that, at week-to-month scales, Rs
Litter pools
the relationship of R to temperarelationship to temperature conGPP (substrate for plant, microbial respiration)
ture over longer periods (weeks,
verges at a Q10 of 1.4 across many
months, and seasons) is influvaried ecosystems. Their work also
Soil decomposer temperature acclimation ?
enced by many factors, including
reduces fears that respiration uxes
the availability of chemical submay increase strongly with temperMycorrhizal fungi temperature acclimation
strates, environmental conditions,
ature, accelerating climate change
changes in microbe abundance
(413). They also add to studies
Plant temperature acclimation
and community composition, and
indicating that simple assumptions
physiological mechanisms for
about respiration-temperature relaMoisture stress
adjusting to shifting temperatures
tions can lead to problematic modEnzyme reaction
(213) (see the gure).
els (413). It is not yet clear, howMahecha et al. used data
ever, whether and how their nd0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
from 60 sites to characterize how
ings can be used in climate models.
R depends on temperature over
What is also not yet clear is how
Second Minute
Hour Day Month Year
time. They used a dividing line
GPP or R will respond to rising
Time
of 3 months to distinguish fast Complex inuences. Land plant and microbe respiration of CO into the atmo- CO2 and to changing temperatures
2
(high-frequency) from slow (low- sphere can be increased (yellow) or reduced (red) by a wide range
of processes or rainfall. Such forecasting will
frequency) processes. They show that enhance or limit metabolic processes, operate over varying time scales, require understanding and maththat high-frequency (week-to- and go beyond direct temperature effects on physiology [expanded from (16)]. ematically describing how biologimonth) processes result in a 40% The numbers on the arrow represent time on a logarithmic scale.
cal processes will respond to novel
average proportional increase in
environmental conditions outside of
R for every 10C increase in temperature, or sensitivity to temperature than can be attrib- the current observational universea chala Q10 value of 1.4. This value was similar uted to direct temperature effects on respi- lenging task indeed. Given the urgent need to
across all sites. In contrast, when assessed ration kinetics. They report, moreover, that quantify and predict future land-atmosphere
conventionally over a year, R increased by an the week-to-month scale sensitivity is stable uxes, however, we need rapid advances in
average of 130% per 10C increase, or a Q10 across sites varying in mean temperature, such understanding in the decade ahead.
of 2.3 (2). For context, the short-term (near- whereas annual sensitivity varies markedly
References
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online 5 July 2010 (10.1126/science.1189587).
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Why is the week-to-month Q10 lower
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10.1126/science.1194353
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www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 329 13 AUGUST 2010
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