Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
11-19-13
Article Brief # 9
Section 2
Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
The article is from the Harvard Business Review, specifically sent to me from Dr.
Brokaw. The article is on the topic of forecasting, specifically giving tips on how to forecast
effectively; as the title of article implies. From reading through the article from author Paul
Saffo, he gives some useful insights into the concept of forecasting.
The article as the title implies, delivers the reader six different ideas/rules about how to
forecast and gives examples and explanations to justify them. For instance, the first rule of
advice is to define a cone of uncertainty, or to look at different possibilities to a situation and not
emphasize or invest too much thought into a single conception but have a wide cone of
possibilities for a situation. If trying to predict a situation, cast a wide net to catch many
possibilities versus a narrow one that only catches a few, so do not underestimate the improbable
but do not be too hung up on it either. This is because sometimes the supposed wild card or
outlier, while hard to quantify, will have the disproportionately large impact if it does occur. In
other words, do not dismiss the unlikely. The second rule the author mentions was to find an S
curve, or to know that change does not often follow a linear or straight-line pattern. That change
generally starts slow and incremental, but then all of a sudden explodes or increases dramatically,
and then eventually tapers off. In other words, besides using mathematic jargon, just because
something is not quite popular now or does not appear to be popular, may without warning all of
a sudden become popular under the right circumstances. The author mentions the example of the
internet to illustrate his point, which it had been in existence long before it reached mainstream
popularity and reached a peak until it started leveling off. The third rule the author suggests is to
embrace things that do not fit. Which really means do not underestimate the obscure or things
that appear unconventional at first glance because they very well could be popular or soon
become the new convention unexpectedly; mostly, do not get hung up on your preconceived
notions or a slave to your own initial conclusions about something. In addition, he emphasized to
mostly do not get mentally lazy and just follow what the mainstream of thought about what
something will be in the future, such as how computers in the past were predicted or forecasted
to be future tools to get work done versus to be sources of recreation. The fourth rule was to hold
strong opinions weakly, or to be flexible in thought about ones ideas. The way I interpreted this,
was to have an open mind about your viewpoints versus pigeonholing yourself into subscribing
to only one line of thought. In other words, a truly wise person knows that he knows nothing but
only what he thinks he knows. Therefore, having mental flexibility and understanding that the
reality you perceive is subjective and your particular perceptions could be wrong so do not be
foolish enough to think you are always going to be right; sort of like learning to detach yourself
from your emotions and really looking at what is happening without reflexive judgment. The
fifth rule is to look back twice as far as you look forward, or as the line, I plan to
unapologetically, steal from this author, which he probably took from someone else, is history
doesnt repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes. In other words, it means to look back at the past
because it can lead to some clues about what might happen in the future, the way I interpret this,
personally, is that human nature has not changed all that much deep down since the times of old.
A phrase similar to the aforementioned one that sticks with me is that more things change, the
more they stay the same. In other words, the human world will always be human, for example,
emotion always trumps logic, in the end. The sixth and final rule is no when to not forecast.
Which I think is a good rule to follow and is a show of humility on the authors part. No matter
what fancy mathematic principles someone might develop, for example, might be persuasive or
seductive at first glance, it is no sure sign that is will work; it could be one tedious form of
mental masturbation or waste of time. Much of the world is unpredictable as the author stresses
that forecasting is not predicting the future, therefore, it is good to keep in perspective that you
could be wrong and not be overzealous with your forecasting because the human environment
can be a lot like the weather, unpredictable.
The author from his perspective wants to show that he has researched history and show
that he competent in this specialty. If I had to guess, I imagine he is a consultant of some kind, so
writing this may lead him to have some new clientele. Alternatively, at the very least receiving
some prestige from getting an article published in the Harvard Business Review. Either way, I
imagine that his goal is accomplished.
The author wrote this article to try to enlighten his audience to show people some
possibly overlooked ideas when it comes to forecasting and what mistakes potentially could
occur. The author apparently wants to look intelligent and how that he knows what he is talking
about to a popular business publication such as the Harvard Business Review. In other words, if
the author has a book for example, it is an indirect way to find potential readers/buyers of his
product; in other words, he is advertising himself.
This pertains to Marketing management because of forecasting is an important element to
success. In other words, being able to take the advice of the author and become a better
forecaster for situations that may lead to a better outcome than if one did not have the knowledge
given in the article. In other words, being a better forecaster will lead to gaining stronger
intelligence or information about what the future holds and that should, without explanation, be
valuable. A metaphor, if one had the skills to forecast so well that it is similar that you had a real
versus imaginary divination tool; one could potentially use to accumulate great wealth or simply
be ahead of the competition. In other words, being good at forecasting can lead one to reap the
rewards of having extraordinary insights, however it is a tool and could be useless without
application of it.
The most relevant class that helped me understand the content of the article would have
to go to Marketing Management, not to be sycophantic. The honest truth is I do not entirely
recall which other classes I have taken that helped me understand the article, but nonetheless, I
understood the content. I think that after seven and a half years of undergraduate courses, one
can lose track of a specific class that helped me understand the content. Therefore, the real most
accurate answer would be an amalgamation of all the courses I have taken in my undergraduate
career.