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Nuclear
Targeting
and
War
in
Programs
Peace: A Quantitative
http://jcr.sagepub.com
?)SAGE
Empirical Analysis,
1941-2000
Matthew
Fuhrmann
and Sarah
E. Kreps
Abstract
When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear
weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively littlescholarly
research has considered when and why countries target nuclear programs. The
authors argue that states are likelyto attack or consider attacking nuclear facilities
when they are highly threatened by a particular country's acquisition of nuclear
weapons. Three factors increase the salience of the proliferation threat: (I) prior
violent militarized conflict; (2) the presence of a highlyautocratic proliferator; and
(3) divergent foreign policy interests. The authors test these propositions using
statistical analysis and a new data set on all instanceswhen countries have struck
or seriously considered strikingother states' nuclear infrastructurebetween 1941
and 2000. The findings lend support for the theory and very littlesupport for the
alternative explanations. States are not deterred from attacking nuclear programs
by the prospect of a military retaliation and concerns about international condem
nation do not appear to influence the willingness to strike. Ultimately, states are
willing to accept substantial costs inattacking ifthey believe that a particular country's
acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significantthreat to their security.
1
Department
Department
Author:
Corresponding
Matthew Fuhrmann, University of South Carolina,
817 Henderson
SC, USA
St., Columbia,
Email: Fuhrmann@mailbox.sc.edu
SC 29208, USA
832
Resolution54(6)
JournalofConflict
Keywords
nuclear proliferation,war, preventive strikes,Osiraq
Introduction
In 1942, British commandos launched an attack against a suspected nuclear facility,
targeting theNorsk-Hydro heavy water plant inGerman-occupied Norway. This raid
represents the firstuse ofmilitary force to hinder nuclear proliferation, but itwas not
the only time thata nuclear program was targeted in the twentiethcentury.New data
collected for this article reveal thatfifteen separate attacks against nuclear facilities
occurred between 1942 and 2000 and attacks were seriously considered on fiftysep
arate occasions during thisperiod.1 Israeli air strikes against a Syrian reactor known
as al-Kibar in September 2007 and continued talk of attacks against Iranian nuclear
facilities indicate that some countries continue to view military force as a viable
instrumentof nonproliferation.
Why do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructurein nonnuclear
weapon
(e.g., Levy 1987; Reiter 1995), but this research tends not to consider attacks against
nuclear
programs
in particular.
The
extant
nuclear
proliferation
literature
focuses
on
why states build nuclear weapons (e.g., Sagan 1996/1997; Singh and Way 2004;
Hymans 2006; Solingen 2007; Jo and Gartzke 2007; Fuhrmann 2009b; Kroenig
2009b) and the links between bomb possession and international conflict behavior
(e.g., Schelling 1966; Asal and Beardsley 2007; Gartzke and Jo 2009; Horowitz
2009; Rauchhaus 2009). Studies that examine strikes against nuclear facilities tend
to examine the consequences of attacks (e.g., Reiter 2006; Kreps and Fuhrmann
2010) rather than attacking states' motivations for using military force.
Existing research does, however, offer some clues as towhy statesmight resort to
force. Proliferation pessimists (e.g., Sagan 1994; Feaver 1997; see also Sagan and
Waltz
2003) argue that proliferation increases the likelihood that one state will
attack nuclear facilities in another state to prevent it from acquiring nuclear
weapons. Related research examines U.S. options for dealing with states that act
indefiance of thenonproliferation regime and cites theuse of force as one
possibility
for a risk-acceptant state committed to stopping proliferation (Feaver and Niou
1996). Other studies have sought to explain why states attacked or considered attack
ing nuclear facilities in particular cases. For example, scholars identify Israel's
decision to attack Iraq's Osirak facility in 1981 as a case inwhich Israel struck rather
than tolerate proliferation in its neighborhood (e.g., Feldman 1982; Snyder 1983;
Perlmutter,Handel, and Bar-Joseph 2003; Reiter 2005); other scholars reference the
United States' considered use of preemptive force against China's nuclear program
Fuhrmann
833
and Kreps
in the early 1960s as a case inwhich Washington chose not to strikebecause of the
possibility of destabilization inAsia (e.g., Burr and Richelson 2000/2001; Goldstein
2006).
These studiesmake important contributions, but none can account for empirical
puzzles across the historical record of attacks. For example, they cannot fully
explain cross-national variation in states' willingness to attack nuclear infrastruc
ture, such as why Iran, Israel, and theUnited States have launched attacks against
or
Iraqi nuclear facilities but other countries with similar opportunities did not, why
Israel attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria but not inLibya or Pakistan. More
over, to our knowledge, no research has used large analysis to systematically analyze
both positive and negative cases, that is, both cases where forcewas used as well as
where itwas considered as an option but ultimately dismissed.2
In this article, we argue that countries are likely to attack or consider attacking
nuclear programs when they are highly threatened by a proliferator's acquisition
of the bomb. Three hypotheses stem from this argument: (1) violent conflict
increases the probability of targeting; (2) the likelihood of targetingdeclines as the
proliferator becomes more democratic; and (3) foreign policy similarity reduces the
probability targeting.Using statistical analysis and an original data set of attacks and
considered attacks against nuclear programs, we find considerable support for the
hypotheses. We also show that the relationship between prior violent conflict and
attacks against nuclear facilities is interestinglynuanced; conflict is statistically
related to strikeswhen the proliferating state is highly authoritarian but unrelated
to this outcome when the proliferator is a developed democracy.
The statistical analysis offersvery littlesupport for alternative explanations. Con
trary to the existing literatureon this topic (e.g., Feaver and Niou 1996; Goldstein
2006; Levy 2008), we find that fears of provoking a military response from thepro
are not particularly
liferating state and concerns about international condemnation
salient in deterring attacks against nuclear programs. The findings also show that
the bomb
operational feasibility and the proliferator's progress toward developing
have little effect on the targetingof nuclear programs. States are ultimately willing
to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's
to
acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat their security.
This article proceeds by defining attacks and considered attacks against nuclear
facilities in non-nuclear weapon states and discussing the new data set. Next, we
or
nuclear pro
develop our argument on when statesmay target consider targeting
We
then
it.
from
flow
that
three
testable
and
present our
hypotheses
grams
identifying
the
statistical
and
discuss
test
to
these
findings. The
hypotheses
empirical strategy
of our study.
contributions
and
assesses
the
conclusion
policy
empirical, theoretical,
Definitions
of Cases
834
Resolution54(6)
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action; (2) consideration of an attack; and (3) an actual attack. Studying raids against
nuclear programs in thisway is appropriate because it is consistent with how states
decide to use force. States thatultimately resort tomilitary force begin by consider
ingwhether it is a viable option and by making preparations to engage in it. Some
For the purposes of this study, attacking statesmust intend to thwart the target's
ability to build nuclear weapons; we are not interested in cases where states used
force to reverse proliferation after a country had assembled at least one nuclear
weapon. Once a country acquires nuclear weapons, decisions to attack nuclear pro
grams are fundamentally altered because it is possible for nuclear weapons to be
used in retaliation against the attacking state (Feaver and Niou 1996). Thus, we
exclude U.S. responses to the Soviet nuclear program in the 1950s because attacks
were considered afterMoscow had already acquired nuclear weapons. We also
eration
concern.
As noted above, states can take steps toward using forcewithout actually attack
ing.We identifythree actions thatconstitute serious consideration of attacks against
nuclear programs.5 The first is if a leader or cabinet-level official
gives political
authorization touse military force but nuclear facilities are not attacked. This ismost
Fuhrmann
835
and Kreps
authorized air strikes against Pakistan's main uranium enrichment plant at Kahuta
but later reversed thisdecision (Franz and Collins 2007). It is also possible foropera
tional constraints to stymie the effective use ofmilitary force. Egypt, for example,
planned to strikean Israeli nuclear facility in the 1967 Six Day War butwas defeated
militarily before it could execute the raid (Ginor and Remez 2007).
The second action that constitutes serious consideration of military force is a
request for cooperation from another country in attacking a third state's nuclear
facilities. Such an overture typically occurs when one statewould like to attack a
proliferatorbut requires logistical support from another country to execute an effec
tivemilitary operation. For instance, between 1979 and 1987, Israel requested coop
eration from India in attacking Pakistani nuclear facilities because operational
success depended on the use of bases in India for launching and refueling (Ganguly
and Hagerty 2005). Countries may also request cooperation from another state to
blunt the potential consequences of attacks. The United States requested assistance
from the Soviet Union in attacking Chinese nuclear installations during the early
involvementwould deter a violent
1960s because Washington hoped thatMoscow's
of East-West relations
the
further
deterioration
and
limit
from
response
Peking
stateA would approach
it
In
that
is
Richelson
and
short,
unlikely
2000/2001).
(Burr
stateB regarding joint strikes against stateC unless stateA had a serious interest in
time (Albright 1994). Contrast this case with Taiwan's response toChina's nuclear
program in the early 1960s, which is coded as a case of considered force on thebasis
of this criterion.Not only did Taiwanese officials discuss the possibility of raiding
Beijing's key nuclear facilities but at least one senior official privately advocated for
military action. During a visit toWashington in September 1963, General Chiang
for strikes against nuclear Chinese
Kai-shek's son?lobbied
Ching-kuo?Chiang
nuclear facilities in private meetings with U.S. officials, including President John
F. Kennedy and National Security Advisor McGeorge Bundy (Richelson and Burr
2000/2001).
836
Resolution54(6)
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There are a few strategic reasons why leaders might use bellicose rhetoricwithout
having any intentionof acting. They might hope to influence thebehavior of thepro
liferatingcountry.Harsh rhetoricmay be nothing more than an attempt to curtail a
state's nuclear weapons ambitions or deter itfrom acting aggressively.6 Threats to
use military forcemight also be intended to influence thirdparty states. InAugust
2007, French President Nicolas Sarkozy made veiled threats against Iran's nuclear
program but this was an attempt to highlight the urgent need for a diplomatic
solution not an expression of genuine French interest in attacking Tehran. Finally,
Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) that includes detailed informationon states' nuclear
weapons programs. We also consulted existing literatures on preventive attacks
(e.g., Reiter 2006) and nuclear proliferation (e.g., Sagan and Waltz 2003), which
sometimes include lists of cases where forcewas considered and/orused. Historical
studies of states' nuclear programs (e.g., Perkovich 1999) were also useful because
they typically discuss how other countries responded to each instance of proliferation.
Whenever possible, we consulted primary sources such as declassified national
security documents dealing with internaldeliberations in the attacking country.
Fuhrmann
Table
837
and Kreps
I.
Cases
Where
States
Considered
1941-2000
Attacking
Target State
State
Attacking
Nuclear
Facilities,
Years Attacked
Israel1967
Egypt
IndiaPakistan
Iran
1982,
Iraq 1980
Iran
Iraq
Norway
Pakistan
Germany
India1984
South Korea
North
Soviet Union
1984,
1986-1987
1980
1984-1988
1979, 1981
1984-1988
Israel
Iraq
IsraelPakistan
1977-1981
1979, 1982-1984,
1941-1944
Korea
1991,
1986-1987
1942-1944
1993-1994
Israel 1967
Soviet Union
South Africa
Taiwan
China 1963
United Kingdom
Germany
1941-1945
United
States
China
1961,
United
States
Germany
1942-1945
UnitedKingdom
United States
United
or Attacked
States
1976
1998
Iraq
Iraq
North
1942-1945
1998
1963-1964
Korea
1943, 1945
1991, 1993, 1998
1994
states. Of
the states
nuclear
weapons,
12 percent
were
attacked at some point and each country thatwas targeted experienced multiple
attacks against its facilities. The dyads and years where forcewas used or considered
are listed in table 1.We provide more detailed informationon all of these cases, cod
ing rules, and the sources we consulted in three online appendices.7
Theory
and Hypotheses
One of the reasons why proliferation is threatening is because it thought to raise the
risk of nuclear war (e.g., Jervis 1989; Sagan andWaltz 2003). This remains a pre
valent concern despite thewell-known military and normative costs associated with
thefirstuse of nuclear weapons (e.g., Betts 1987; Tannenwald 2007). Another rea
Resolution54(6)
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838
These consequences do not imply that states will rush to target suspected
proliferators. One reason is that there are costs associated with attacking nuclear
facilities. Perhaps most troublesome for the attacking state is the possibility that the
targetcountrywould respondmilitarily by launching air strikes against nuclear facil
itiesor other strategic sites in the attacking state.The result could be a protractedwar.
U.S. policy makers certainly recognized thispossibility when discussing raids against
Chinese nuclear complexes during the 1960s (see Burr and Richelson 2000/2001).
According to Secretary of State Dean Rusk: "The [Chinese] reactionwould be violent
and would result essentially in the employment of theirprincipal weapon, theirenor
be more concerned about proliferation than others (see Kroenig 2009a). Whether a
statewill fear proliferation enough to consider military force depends on itsbilateral
relationship with the proliferator as well as the institutional characteristics of the
country attempting to build nuclear weapons.
ViolentMilitarized Conflict
Violent militarized conflict is the factormost likely to influence states' perceptions
of whether the proliferating country will use nuclear weapons and whether
Fuhrmann
839
and Kreps
proliferation will
weapons program
perceive that it is
cials were aware
during the conflict, state B might fear that the bomb, if acquired, would be used
against it to resolve the issues at the heart of the dispute. For example, theUnited
States and Britain recognized the need to attack key German nuclear installations
because Germany's nuclear weapons program was intended to produce a bomb for
Goertz 2000). Israel might have opposed Syria's acquisition of nuclear weapons, for
instance, because the conflict-prone relationship over the last thirtyyears raises the
prospect of futuredisputes where potential economic, political, or diplomatic influ
ence over Damascus would be especially valuable. If Syria were to build nuclear
weapons, Israel's ability to exercise this leverage might be reduced. The preceding
logic leads to the firsthypothesis:
Hypothesis
1: States
are more
likely
to attack
or consider
attacking
the nuclear
conflict.
Proliferator's
Regime Type
The proliferating state's regime type also affectswhether itmight resort to offensive
behavior such as the use of the bomb. Scholars have argued thatdemocratic norms
and institutionsconstrain leaders and are associated with a high degree of transpar
ency (e.g., Russett 1993; Dixon 1994; Bueno deMesquita et al. 1999; Schultz 1999).
Since non-democratic leaders are less accountable to domestic constituencies, they
may be more inclined to threaten stateswith nuclear weapons, sell weapon technol
ogy to other states or non-state actors, or actually use nuclear bombs against an
adversary despite the "nuclear taboo" (Tannenwald 2007). When states fear that
these types of activities are possible and lack reassurance to the contrarybecause the
suspected proliferator's decision making is opaque, they aremore likely to use force
to prevent proliferation. For example, U.S. National Security Advisor Brent
Scowcroft stated thatSaddam Hussein's "notoriously mercurial" behavior provided
840
Resolution54(6)
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additional incentives to end the Iraqi nuclear program during the 1990-1991 Persian
Gulf War (Bush and Scowcroft 1998, 306-307).
Israel's raid on Osiraq is also revealing. Israel decided to attack Iraq's nuclear
program in 1981 largely because itperceived that the Iraqi bomb would eventually
be used against it (e.g., Feldman 1982; Snyder 1983; Perlmutter et al. 2003). Israeli
officials emphasized that the threatof an Iraqi bomb was magnified because Saddam
Hussein's regime was dictatorial, unpredictable, and lacked transparency regarding
and intentions (Feldman 1982). Defense Minister Ariel Sharon
cannot afford the introduction of the nuclear weapon [in Iraq].
"Israel
proclaimed,
For us, it is not a question of balance of terrorbut a question of survival" (Snyder
1983, 583).
capabilities
ForeignPolicySimilarity
The likelihood that stateswill feel threatenedby a proliferator could also be contin
gent on the congruence of theirforeign policy interests.Even if states do not believe
thatnuclear weapons would be used inwar, theymay also be sufficiently threatened
to consider attacking if theybelieve that theirfuturebargaining leverage will be con
strained (Levy 2008). U.S. decision making on possible attacks against China during
the early 1960s illustrates thatfears about the loss of political leverage can influence
a country's willingness to attack. State Department officials argued in July 1963 that
a Chinese nuclear capability was unlikely tobe "used as an umbrella for aggression"
but stillworried thata Chinese bomb would weaken U.S. leverage (Burr and Richel
son 2000/2001, 76). According to declassified documents, "Communist China will
try ... to use itsnuclear capability toweaken thewill ofAsian countries ... to put
political pressure on theU.S. military presence in the area; and to obtain support for
Chinese claims to status as a world power" (United States 1964).
A statemight notworry about losing leverage with states that share foreign policy
interestsbecause future disagreements, tensions, or crises are relatively unlikely.
However, states with divergent interests can expect to disagree over contentious
issues. Therefore, if stateA and stateB have dissimilar interestsand stateB acquires
nuclear weapons, stateA would lose leverage and be less able to advance its future
interests.Under such circumstances, stateA might be willing touse military force to
prevent state B from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Hypothesis 3: States are more likely to attack or consider attacking the nuclear
programs of states thathave dissimilar foreign policy interests.
Fuhrmann
Table
2.
841
and Kreps
Dates
of Nuclear Weapon
Programs
for Non-Nuclear
States,
Weapon
Years
Country
1983-2000
1968- 1990
1956-1973
1953- 1990
1955-1964
1946-1960
1941- 1945
1954- 1988
1984-2000
1976-2003
1949-1971
1943-1945
1965-2003
1959-1978
1970-2000
1972-1987
1985- 1990
1969- 1979
1943-1949
1945- 1969
1946-1970
1967-1977; 1987-1988
1947- 1952
1942- 1945
1954-1965; 1974-1988
Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
France
Germany
India
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Japan
Korea,
North
Korea,
South
Libya
Pakistan
Romania
South Africa
Soviet Union
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
United
United
1941-2000
Kingdom
States
Yugoslavia
The end dates indicate that the state either acquired nuclear weapons
(in the cases of China,
France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, South Africa, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the
United States) or ended their nuclear weapons programs. Coding is based on the measure of Singh and
Way
(2004) whether a country is at least "exploring" nuclear weapons. Dates prior to 1945 are taken
from Jo and Gartzke (2007).
Note:
Research
Design
We
above, we use two dependent variables (see appendices A-C for furtherdetails).
Attack is a dummy variable that is coded 1 ifa state attacked a proliferating country
Resolution54(6)
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842
inyear tand 0 otherwise. Considered attack is a dummy variable that is coded 1 ifa
state seriously considered attacking a proliferating country inyear tand 0 otherwise.
IndependentVariables
Three independent variables are used to test our hypotheses. As a measure of
whether states in a dyad are involved inviolent militarized conflictwe create violent
conflict,which is a dichotomous variable that equals 1 if they are involved in an
? 1
involving the use of
ongoing militarized interstate dispute (MID) in year t
force.11We consult theCorrelates ofWar (COW) data (Ghosn, Palmer, and Bremer
2004) to code thismeasure.12 To code the target state's regime type,we rely on data
from thePolity IV project (Marshall and Jaggers 2007). We include target's polity,
?
which measures the target's Polity score in year t
l.13 Finally, as a measure of
foreign policy similarity,we use the S-score of Signorino and Ritter (1999), which
measures
in year
l.15
ControlVariables
We control for other factors that could affect attacks and considered attacks against
nuclear programs. One of themost prominent arguments (e.g., Feaver and Niou
1996; Levy 2008) is thatcountries aremore willing to attack nuclear programs when
they expect a limitedmilitary response and avoid such attacks when they expect a
massive response. We include two variables to control for this argument. Target's
power measures the capabilities of the target state based on thewidely used COW
Fuhrmann
843
and Kreps
is a count of the number of years the nuclear weapons program has been
active.We also measure a state's progress toward developing nuclear weapons using
data on bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation agreements compiled by Fuhrmann
which
We
sider years
and no attack
years?that
count
the number
of years
that pass
in between
considered attacks and attacks, respectively, along with three cubic splines.
Method
We firstexplore cross-tabulations of attacks and considered attacks against the three
independent variables relevant to our argument. This simple analysis is useful
because it sheds light on the strengthand subtlety of underlying relationships.
Then, we turn to statistical analysis to determine whether the bivariate relation
shipswe identifyhold up once we account for confounding variables. The phenom
ena we are studying?attacks and considered attacks against nuclear programs?are
rare occurrences. Since standard techniques such as logit or probit generate biased
coefficients when applied to rare events, we use rare events logit, an estimator
Resolution54(6)
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844
Table
3.
Tabulations
Cross
of
Independent
Attacks, 1941-2000
A. Violent
Variables
against
No
Attack
No
Yes
X2-
B. Target's
Conflict
Yes
4,821
(99.73%)
13
499
(.27%)
(5.13%)
Yes
No
Attack
(94.87%)
27
No
Yes
%2
127.60; p: <
4,832
(99.96%)
2
510
(.04%)
(3.04%)
.0001
Attack
No
Yes
%2=
C.
18.92; p: <
.0001
Low
High
2,965
(98.8%)
2,355
(99.83%)
(1.2%)
(.17%)
Polity
Attack
No
36 4 Yes
%2=
14.20; p <
Low
High
2,983
(99.4%)
18
2,359
(99.94%)
0
(.60%)
(0.0%)
.0001
Considered
X2
(96.96%)
16
Polity
Polity
Considered
and
Conflict
Conflict
Considered
Attacks
Considered
Attack
Low
High
No
2,073
3,247
Yes
(98.9%)
23
(99.48%)
17
(1.1%)
(.52%)
5.73; p:.0\7
Similarity
Attack
Low
High
No
2,082
3,260
Yes
(99.33%)
14
(99.88%)
4
(.67%)
(.12%)
11.3-4; p: <
.001
by dyad to control for heteroskedastic error variance. All independent variables are
lagged one year behind thedependent variable to control forpossible simultaneitybias.
Results
Table 3 displays simple cross-tabulations of the independent variables against con
sidered attacks and attacks on nuclear programs.21 The table reveals preliminary
support in favor of the threehypotheses and indicates that the relationships between
the independent variables and attacks are probabilistic, not deterministic. This
simple analysis also underscores
occurrences.
Fuhrmann
845
and Kreps
Table 3A reveals that while attacks and considered attacks are much more
common when preceded by violent conflict,not all conflicts lead to strikes.Roughly
5 percent (27) of the dyad years preceded by conflict experience considered attacks
while only .27 percent (13) of dyad years preceded by peace face considered strikes.
Likewise, attacks occurred in about 3 percent (16) of the dyad years preceded by
conflict and only .04 percent (2) of the dyad years not preceded by conflict. This
reveals that almost all raids against nuclear programs occur following violent
militarized conflict.However, even themost extreme form of violent conflict,war,
does not always produce attacks against nuclear programs. For instance, nuclear pro
grams were not targeted during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 or during the 1962
Sino-Indian War. This raises questions about the relationship between war and
attacks against nuclear facilities, which we explore furtherbelow.
polity score experienced attacks. Table 3C reveals strong empirical support for the
proposition that foreign policy divergence affects decisions to attack nuclear pro
grams. Of the dyad years including stateswith dissimilar foreign policy interests,
attackswere considered in 1.1 percent (23) versus .52percent (17) of the dyad years
including stateswith similar interests.Similarly, the vastmajority (14 of 18) of dyad
years where an attack occurred included states with dissimilar foreign policy
interests.
The next step is to determine whether the relationships suggested by table 3 hold
when controlling for the factors thought to influence attacks against nuclear pro
grams. Table 4 displays the initial results of themultivariate statistical analysis.22
Models 1-3 use considered attack as the dependent variable.23 Model 1 is a baseline
model thatonly includes the threevariables testing thehypotheses and the controls
for temporal dependence. Model 2 is a fullmodel that includes all of the explanatory
and control variables. Model 3 excludes variables that are determinants of violent
conflict24Models 4-6 mirror models 1-3 except that theyuse attack as the depen
dent variable. Table 4 also lists the substantive effects produced by each of the sta
tistically significant variables using a program developed by Tomz, King, and Zeng
(1999). To interpretsubstantive effects,we compute the relative risk for each signif
icant variable. The relative risk refers to the probability of an event in the treatment
(continued)
16.21
7.06
0.94
52.11
0.70
0.98
5.19
0.56
Relative
(6)
DV:
1.09
Risk:
3.694***
1.08
0.31
0.636
2.972***
(1.022)
DV:
ks
0.53
(0.053)
Relative
(0.897) (0.635)-0.052 (0.050)
-0.097*
Risk:
-0.035 3.990**
7.197**
(1.596)
16.738**
0.254
(1.184)
(0.043) (3.361)-0.185
(0.084)-0.064
(0.539)-0.101
(1.006)-0.089
(7.366) (0.054)
(0.098) (0.661)
-1.486**
2.845***
Consider
Attack
Consider
Attack
(1.030)
3.395***
-1.466**
(0.109) (0.579)
-0.131
Attacks
and
Considered
against
2.478***
Nuclear
Programs,
1941-2000
1.793***
0.039
(0.599) (0.453) (0.029) (0.021)
-0.865*
-0.067***
(0.579)
1.917***
(0.602) (0.035) (0.443)
-0.060*-0.826*
6.718*
-1.184**
0.062
1.643***
-0.980***
(0.295)
7.381**
(0.032)
(3.853)-0.003
(0.027) (0.572) (0.549) (0.039)-0.050
(0.403)
2.447*** -0.088***
0.462
(3.589) (0.761)-0.876***
(0.306)
(0.290)
(0.609) (0.032)
-0.734*
-0.883***
Violent
conflict
Explanatory
variables
polity Foreign
Target's
power
policy
ratio
Target'sPower
56
similarity
Controls
No
years
consider
Attacker's
power
Post-cold
war Program
years
Contiguity
Nuclear
assistance
Article
000'
Attack
Relative
Risk:
Consider
Relative
Risk:
-0.698*
0.005
(6)
DV: Attack (0.390) (0.017)
-0.011
-7.430***
(2.075)
-0.002
0.006
(0.016) (0.012) (0.003)
-0.503 -0.009
Attack
5,360
5,360
(1.326)
Note:
Robust
standard
errors
in
parentheses;
*significant
at
10
percent;
significant
5**
percent;
at ***
significant
at
Ipercent.
Relative
risk
calculations
are
based
0.007
(0.423)
(0.017)
(0.013)
(0.004)
-0.642 -0.011
-0.002
-5.726***
-4.230***
5,444
(3)
DV:
0.010*
(0.009)
(0.006)-0.001
(0.001) (0.641)
-0.020**
Consider
DV:
(2)
5,444
(0.014)-0.001
DV:
(4)
(1.103)
(0.004) -6.046***
Consider
-0.018**
0.009*
5,360
(0.001)
(0.009) (0.005)-0.001
-5.188***
(1.539)
(l)DV:
Consider
5,360
0.010*
(0.006)-0.001
(0.002) (0.674)
(0.009)
-0.019**
-4.018***
(continued)
4
Table
No
attack
years
Spline
I
Spline
2
3
Spline
2and
models
5.
on
Constant
Observations
848
Resolution54(6)
JournalofConflict
conflict is statistically and negatively related to both attacks and considered attacks.
Substantively, the relative risk of violent conflict is 7.06 for considered attacks and
16.21 for attacks. This means thatmilitarized conflict increases the likelihood of
having a considered attack by 606 percent and an actual attack by 1,521 percent. The
lattereffect is extraordinarily large,which makes sense when one considers that 89
percent of attacks against nuclear programs were preceded by violent conflict. Table
4 also indicates that there is a statistically significant relationship between target's
polity and considered attacks in the negative direction, suggesting that states are
more likely to seriously think about striking less democratic proliferators.26 The
relationship between the target's regime type and considered attacks is also substan
tively strong; increases in this independent variable lower the probability of a con
sidered raid by about 44 percent. Note, however, that target's polity is statistically
insignificant across models 4-6, indicating that there is not a significant relationship
between actual attacks and theproliferator's regime type.Below, we explore the rea
sons for this finding in greater detail.
The coefficient on the variable measuring foreign policy similarity is negative
and statistically significant in each model. The relationship between foreign policy
similarity and both stages of targetingnuclear programs is also substantively strong.
Increases in this independent variable reduce the probability of a considered attack
within a dyad by 30 percent and the lower the likelihood of an attack by 55 percent.
These results lend furthersupport to the argument that states attack nuclear programs
when theyworry about the loss of political leverage.
The control variables shed interesting lighton attacks against nuclear programs.
We find some evidence that contradicts the argument that states refrain from attack
ing nuclear programs because theyworry about therisk of retaliation. Strong states
are actually more likely to be attacked thanweak states. The relative risk of target's
power is .98,which means that increasing thevalue of thisvariable from itsmean to
its 75th percentile decreases the likelihood of an attack by 2 percent. Power ratio is
statisticallyunrelated to both considered attacks and attacks. The results likewise do
not offermuch support in favor of the argument that international norms influence
the targetingof nuclear programs. Article 56 is positive and statistically significant
across all models, indicating that states were more likely to attack and consider
influence considered attacks until the collapse of the bipolar international system.
There is not a statistically significant relationship between the end of the cold war
and actual attacks against nuclear facilities.
A proliferator's progress toward developing the bomb does not appear to be sali
ent in explaining the targeting of nuclear programs. Program years is
statistically
unrelated to both attacks and considered attacks.Nuclear assistance is negative and
Fuhrmann
849
and Kreps
model 5. The interaction term is negative and highly statistically significant inboth
models, suggesting that the effect of conflict on attacks against nuclear programs
declines as the target state becomes more democratic. However, it is difficult to
properly interpretthese results solely on the basis of the informationpresented in
table 5.We follow the advice of Brambor, Clark, and Golder (2006) and plot the
marginal effect of violent conflict along with the 95 percent confidence interval
as target's polity increases.
Resolution54(6)
JournalofConflict
850
Table
5.
Violent
1941-2000
Conflict,
Target's
Regime
Type,
and Attacks
against Nuclear
Programs,
(8)
(7)
Explanatory variables
Violent conflict
Target's polity
Violent Conflict)
x Target's
4.587*** (1.053)
0.509*** (0.028)
-0.650***
Polity
(0.125)
(0.094)
(0.664)
18.585**(7.445)
-0.032 (0.054)
4.369*** (1.643)
0.187 (0.537)
Target's power
Power ratio
Article 56
war
-0.095
Program years
assistance
Nuclear
Attacker's
-0.538***
-1.511**
Post-cold
3.767*** (0.957)
0.492*** (0.075)
(0.084)
-0.094**
Contiguity
No attack years
-0.644
Spline I
Spline2
Spline3
(0.396)
-0.010(0.017)
0.005 (0.014)
-0.001
Constant
(0.004)
-5.773***
(1.039)
5,444
Observations
Note: Robust standard errors
***
significant at I percent.
in parentheses;
(0.043)
6.938** (3.372)
-0.245 (1.196)
power
significant at
-0.484
(0.429)
-0.008
(0.016)
0.005 (0.012)
-0.002
(0.003)
-7.698***
(1.881)
5,360
Figure 1 is consistent with our theoretical expectations outlined above. The mar
ginal effect of violent conflict is largest when target's polity is at theminimum
value. The marginal effect begins to level off when the rescaled target's polity
approaches a value of 4, which is about the cut-point for an authoritarian regime.
When target's polity isgreater than 12 (denoted by thevertical dotted line infigure 1)
the confidence interval includes 0, indicating that the relationship between prior
violent conflict and attacks against nuclear programs is no longer statistically signif
icant. Thus, democracies are no more likely to be targeted inwar than in peace.
However, violent conflict amplifies the probability that an authoritarian proliferator
will be attacked. For some anocracies (with rescaled Polity scores between 6 and 13),
war has a statistically significant effect on the chance of being attacked but
substantively this relationship ismodest.
institutedresearch and coding rules (see appendices A-C) tomaximize the like
lihood thatwe identifiedall instances of considered attacks against nuclear programs
in the available historical record. Still, it is reasonable towonder whether we have
identified the true universe of cases. We were able to discover considered uses of
Fuhrmann
851
and Kreps
.1
.09
.08
.07
.06
.05
.04 -\
.03
.02 H
.01
0
-.01
i-r~
10
12
14
16
20
I. Marginal effect of war on attacks against nuclear facilities as target's polity score
Figure
line
1941-2000.
Note: Dotted
lines denote 95 percent confidence
increases,
interval; verticle
denotes
the confidence
interval includes zero.
point at which
force involving theUnited States and other democracies inpart because many of the
relevant national security documents have been declassified. We did not have this
same level of access for authoritarian countries (e.g., the Soviet Union), so it is pos
sible thatwe failed to discover all cases involving these states.29To explore whether
this systematically biased the findings we presented above, we reestimated models
1-3 in a sample thatonly included democratic attackers.30 This reduced our sample
size by about 50 percent but we are most confident in the completeness of our case
Resolution54(6)
JournalofConflict
852
Table
6.
Democratic
Attackers
and
Strikes
Considered
against
1941-2000
Target's
2.173*** (0.798)
-0.198**
polity
-0.180
(0.098)
1.556*(0.843)
-0.112*
-0.442
(0.526)
13.468(9.969)
Article 56
2.604** (1.149)
war
(0.039)
-0.418
Program years
assistance
Nuclear
power
Contiguity
No consider
Spline I
Spline2
Spline3
2.663*** (0.713)
(0.711)
-0.065*
Attacker's
(M)
(0.067)
Target's power
Power ratio
Post-cold
Programs,
(10)
(9)
Explanatory variables
Violent conflict
Nuclear
-I.I
years
16*** (0.406)
-0.030**
(0.013)
0.018** (0.008)
-0.003 (0.002)
Constant
-4.054***
(1.068)
0.006 (0.062)
-0.019 (0.045)
8.696* (4.582)
0.061 (0.957)
in parentheses;
1.858**(0.901)
-0.560
(0.794)
-0.011
(0.056)
-0.054*
(0.030)
-0.945**
(0.385)
-1.106***
-0.024**
(0.011)
-0.027**
0.014* (0.007)
-0.002
(0.002)
-5.313*
2424
Observations
(0.782)
significant at
(2.952)
2424
(0.389)
(0.012)
0.015* (0.008)
-0.002 (0.002)
-3.442***
(0.703)
2468
Conclusion
The empirical findings lend strong support for our argument that countries attack or
consider attacking nuclear programs when they are threatened by the target state's
acquisition of the bomb. Consistent with this argument, violent conflict is strongly
related to attacks and considered attacks against nuclear programs. Countries are
more likely to consider strikingauthoritarian regimes because leaders in these states
aremore likely to behave unpredictably. The target's regime type also conditions the
relationship between violent conflict and attacks against nuclear programs. Hostile
militarized disputes have a very large substantive effect on the likelihood of an
attack when the target is highly authoritarian, but the magnitude of this effect
declines as the targetbecomes more democratic. Violent conflict is statistically unre
lated to attacks when the target is a developed democracy. We also find thatforeign
policy similarity decreases the likelihood of attacks and considered attacks, although
the statistical significance of this relationship washes away when we only include
democratic attackers in our estimation sample.
Our findings are generally unsupportive of the competing explanations. Contrary
to theview that states aremore likely to attackweak proliferators because the oppor
tunities for retaliation are reduced, we find that,on average, risks of retaliation are
not salient in explaining either attacks or considered attacks. Rather, states are
Fuhrmann
853
and Kreps
news is that states are rarely sufficiently threatened to seriously consider attacking
a nuclear program. It often takes war or other forms of severe militarized conflict
to triggerattacks and these events occur relatively infrequently.Nonetheless, peace
time attacks are possible if states believe thata proliferating countrywill not behave
as a responsible nuclear power (e.g., nuclear weapons might be used). This is an
important insightfor states and internationalorganizations thathave interests in con
Notes
were seriouslyconsidered involveeighteendifferent
1. The fiftycases where strikes
dyads;
some
dyads
experienced
considered
attacks
inmultiple
years.
2. There has been somepolicy analysis on positive and negative cases (e.g.,Ramberg 2006).
3. Relevant
infrastructure
fuel fabrication,
uranium
includes
nuclear
enrichment,
power
and
or plutonium
research
reactors
reprocessing.
This
and
facilities
definition
for
is sim
ilar toReiter's (2006, 29) definitionbut differsin two respects: (1) we do not include
854
attacks
actors
nonstate
against
(2) we
and
Resolution54(6)
JournalofConflict
uses
exclude
of force
nuclear
that delayed
contributed
directly
5.
In addition
if an actual
installations.
of nuclear
here, we
discussed
assume
considered
strike occurred
in our data
7. Appendix
A provides
set.
of each
short descriptions
nuclear
ered attacking
or consid
states attacked
instance where
and
facilities
relied on
in coding
these cases.
lists sources we
or considered
attacked
programs
criteria. Appendix
consulted
nuclear
attacking
because
our coding
that states
any evidence
facilities.
a problem
in studies
and we
relations
of international
encourage
further
likely have
in the absence
occurred
of third-party action.
The most
likely
in the absence
this case
coded
9. We
include
of United
as missing
and
States
relevant
only politically
involvement.
We
are substantively
the results
attackers
because
we
replicate models
3 and 4 with
similar.
are not interested
in states
that
10.We primarilyuse the "explore" data of Singh andWay since statescould be attacked
even ifthereis theslightestsuspicion thattheyare using nuclearweapons. For theperiod
prior to 1945,we relyon thedata of Jo and Gartzke.
on the MID
11. Based
data,
this includes
"use
of force"
and
"war."
14.We use thismeasure because it can be problematic to infer states' foreign policy
interestsbased solely on their alliance commitments (Signorino and Ritter 1999).
Note,
however,
that states
have
never
considered
a military ally.
15. We
use
16. We
thank an anonymous
the unweighted
regional
reviewer
attacking
the nuclear
S-scores.
for this insight.
program
of
17. Nuclear
in place
authorize
agreements
cooperation
or knowledge
from one
state to another
in virtually
all cases
technology,
materials,
before
for "peaceful
such
purposes."
materials,
technology,
They
are required
See Fuhrmann
to be
(2009a,
2009b).
18. Nuclear
both civilian
and military
and know-how
applications.
For more
in nature, meaning
they have
in international
duces
21.
we
results
of attacks
probit or ordered
Using
logit pro
similar.
and considered
attacks
listed here
nuclear
a politically
case
the Israel-Pakistan
program. Additionally,
it is not considered
here because
included
relevant
dyad. Note,
is not
however,
that
sample.
variables
as
coded
1 for values
continuous
above
variables
the mean
are broken
down
below
into dichotomous
the mean.
of the results
interpretation
considered
involving
els of statistical
attacks, foreign
significance.
As we
is very
policy
similar.
similarity
discuss
below,
In some model
specifications
conventional
for hypothesis
lev
3 is the least
robust.
23. Some dyads experienced a considered attack inmore thanone year (see table 1). To
explore how sensitive the findingsare to the inclusionofmultiple consideration-years
within a dyad,we replicatemodels 1-3with a recoded dependentvariable;we code the
1 and
first consideration
subsequent
considerations
The
missing.
results
are similar
to
noteworthy
els of statistical
our findings
dyad. Note,
torical
exception
significance
are mildly
however,
record where
inmodel
sensitive
2, as the p value
to the inclusion
does
not achieve
increases
of multiple
lev
conventional
to .19. This
considerations
suggests
that
in the same
of the his
occasions
paribus.
Dummy
variables
are increased
from 0 to 1.
a democracy
a nondemocracy
and 0 otherwise.
Substi
Resolution54(6)
856 JournalofConflict
For ease
28.
we
rescale
target's
some
cases
involving
of presentation,
that we
29. Note
identified
lack of declassified
sidered
nuclear
are defined
polity
sample
are democracies.
0 and 20.
between
authoritarian
not make
does
documents
strikes against
30. Democracies
in our estimation
of the proliferators
35 percent
27. Roughly
attackers,
that the
indicating
on con
to find information
it impossible
programs.
as states with
a Polity
score of at least 7.
31. To further
explorewhether this is the case,we replicatedmodels 1-3while substituting
alternate measures
are generally
other results
we
32. When
of S-score
alternate measures
The
score).
drop power
of statistical
of Signorino
and Ritter
with
consistent
ratio from
regional
insignificant, while
the
in table 4.
those reported
the model,
the weighted
e.g.,
(1999;
of the S-score
target's power
achieves
conventional
levels
significance.
Note
Authors'
of Conflicting
Interests
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