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MONTHLY STRATONOMICS
January 2010
Contents Strategy comment
Stock market performance 2 For the year 2010 we believe investors should focus on two principal themes: the first is exposure to domestic recovery given that we
Market liquidity 7 forecast GDP to rebound strongly in 2010. We therefore advise investors to select stocks with direct exposure to a recovery in domestic
Market valuations 8 demand (banks, cyclical retailers, utilities, and automakers). We would however caution that, in our view, the recovery in investments will
Company earnings 12
likely be protracted, and hence for the time being we would steer clear of steelmakers, in particular long‐product makers. Second, we
Commodities 14
Currencies 16 believe investors should focus on companies with exposure to developing Asia in order to gain from the region's galloping economic
Interest rates/Risk indicators 17 growth, largely driven by China. We have identified three names which stand out as they derive a significant proportion of revenue from
The economy 19 Asia‐related business activities. These are Uralkali, with 53% of revenue from Asia, Silvinit (63%), and Norilsk Nickel (17%).
Macroeconomic tables 25 Chart of the month
2010 GDP growth forecast (%): Russia's GDP to grow 5.8% in 2010E The Russian economy posted a 9.9% YoY contraction in
Top picks under ATON coverage China
India 6.4
9.0 9M09, placing it in the unenviable position of being
Company Ticker Last price Mcap 2010 P/E Russia* 5.8 one of the hardest hit countries from the financial crisis
Turkey 3.7
($) ($mn) Thailand 3.7 that plunged the global economy into recession last
Taiwan 3.7
Uralkali URKA RU 4.2 8922 8.7 Korea 3.6 year. That said, we argue that a pronounced GDP
Brazil 3.5
Silvinit prefs SILVP RU 380 7252 9.5 Mexico 3.3 decline in 2009 will deliver a sharp recovery in 2010
Indonesia 3.2
Vozrozhdenie VZRZ RU 39.6 961 9.6 Malaysia 2.5 thanks to a base‐effect, with our estimate at 5.8%
Poland 2.2
Sberbank SBER RU 2.8 62953 10.9 Kazakhstan 2.0 growth. While we believe that a recovery is partially
MRSK Holding MRKH RU 0.1145 4855 5.7 South Africa 1.7
Argentina 1.5 priced in, we note that the current consensus
MRSK Urals MRKU RU 0.0084 734 5.0 Philippines 1.0
Hungary ‐0.9 (Bloomberg) forecast is for 3% GDP growth in 2010
Magnit MGNT LI 16.5 7340 18.2 Estonia ‐2.6
and, consequently, we expect further upside revisions
M.Video MVID RU 4.0 714 12.3
‐5 ‐3 ‐1 1 3 5 7 9 to be market supportive.
Sollers SVAV RU 14.7 504 Neg
Gaz GAZA RU 23.0 426 Neg Source: IMF, *Aton estimates
Data dashboard
Market indicators Last Period Change* Economic indicators Period Change vs Prev. Outlook Period Change vs Prev. Outlook
MICEX 1370 2009 121% GDP 3Q09 ‐8.9% Unemployment (level) Nov‐09 8.1%
RTS 1445 2009 129% Industrial production Nov‐09 1.5% International reserves Nov‐09 $447.8bn
RDX 1305 2009 105% Fixed investment Nov‐09 ‐14.8% Trade balance Nov‐09 $11.6bn
MSCI Russia 795 2009 100% Retail sales Nov‐09 ‐6.4% RUB/$, eop Dec‐09 30.24/$
* Change in 2009 Real disposable income Nov‐09 1.9% RUB/€, eop Dec‐09 43.39/€
CPI Dec‐09 8.8% Refinancing rate (level) Dec‐09 8.75%
Source: Rosstat, CBR, Aton estimates. Notes: YoY changes unless otherwise stated. Outlook refers to ATON forecast for next period. For exchange rates: upward arrow
indicates an apprecation; downward arrow indicates a depreciation.
Peter Westin, Chief Equity Strategist/Economist Inga Foksha, Equity Strategy/Economics
+7 (495) 777 6677 (ext. 2656) +7 (495) 777 6677 (ext. 2644)
peter.westin@aton.ru inga.foksha@aton.ru
MSCI Indices, 1M performance: Over the last month MSCI indices, 2009 performance: In 2009 MSCI Russia MSCI indices, Current index level vs 5Y average:
MSCI Russia (up 3%) has underperformed within the gained 100% and as such was the fourth best performing Compared to its 5Y average, the MSCI RU Index is
EM universe. emerging market. currently at the lowest level of any EM.
Brazil 121%
Turkey 20% Indonesia 121% Brazil 71%
Taiwan 9% India 101% Indonesia 66%
Korea 8% Russia 100% China 46%
Thailand 7% Turkey 92% India 45%
Indonesia 6% EM 28%
Taiwan 75% S.Africa 28%
S. Africa 5% MSCI EM
Argentina 4% 74% Turkey 27%
MSCI EM 4% Hungary 74% Mexico 23%
Thailand 70%
‐10% ‐5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% ‐20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
60% 60% 60
30% 30% 40
0% 0% 20
‐30% ‐30% 0
Jan‐09 Mar‐09 May‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐09 Mar‐09 May‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Dec‐07 Jun‐08 Dec‐08 Jun‐09 Dec‐09
2
MSCI Russia Energy Index relative to MSCI EM MSCI Russia Materials Index relative to MSCI EM MSCI Russia Financials Index relative to MSCI EM
Energy: In 2009 Russian Energy names performed in Materials: Russian Materials stocks outperformed Financials: MSCI Russia Financials outperformed
line with EM peers. their EM peers by 19% in 2009. their EM peers by 88%.
1.1 1.4 2.0
1.3 1.8
1.2 1.6
1.0
1.1 1.4
0.8 0.8
3
MSCI Russia: 1M performance by sector (%) MSCI Russia: 3M performance by sector (%) MSCI Russia: 2009 performance by sector (%)
‐10% 0% 10% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
0.2 0.3
0.4 0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
‐0.2 0
0.0 ‐0.4 ‐0.1
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Jun‐06 Dec‐06 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Aug‐08 Feb‐09 Sep‐09
4
MICEX performance, 1M (%) RTS performance, 1M (%)
FEES
URKA
RTKM
OPIN
SVAV
SNGS
MAGN
PHST
PMTL
NLMK
NMTP
SBER
AFLT
ESMO
URSI
BANE
NNSI
ENCO
SPTL
TRNFP
RTKM
RBCI
URKA
PMTL
OGKE
TATN3
LKOH
HYDR
PLZL
MTSI
SNGSP
VTBR
RASP
CHMF
MSNG
AFLT
URSI
VTEL
SBERP
SBERP
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
RDX performance, 1M (%)
ATAD
NLMK
PLZL
NVTK
LKOD
SGGD
HYDR
ROSN
MNOD
VTBR
SSA
EVR
OGZD
SVST
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
5
MICEX performance, 2009 (%) RTS performance, 2009 (%)
SNGS
GAZP
LKOH
HYDR
AFLT
MTSI
OGKE
VTBR
PLZL
NLMK
TRNFP
MSNG
NOTK
SBER03
OGKC
MAGN
RASP
VTEL
SBERP
OPIN
RTKM
SCON
IRGZ
SNGS
NMTP
GAZP
AFLT
LKOH
HYDR
SBER
ENCO
MGNT
ESMO
RASP
AFKS
NNSI
BANE
OGKC
TRNFP
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
RDX performance, 2009 (%)
0%
SGGD
OGZD
LKOD
VTBR
ROSN
MNOD
PLZL
URKA
ATAD
NLMK
EVR
NVTK
SVST
SSA
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
6
MICEX liquidity ($mn): Liquidity on the MICEX has recovered from its recent low at end‐
RTS liquidity ($mn): Liquidity on the RTS in 2H09 only slightly improved on 1H09 and
2008 / beginning of 2009, with an average daily traded volume of $1.8bn over the past 10
remains well below its pre‐crisis level. (Note: data is for RTS Classica Index)
months.
6,000 120
5,000 100
Ave. value = $2,197 Ave. value = $1,828 Ave. value = $44
4,000 80
3,000 60
Ave. value = $856 Ave. value = $13
2,000 40 Ave. value = $11
1,000 20
MARKET LIQUIDITY
0 0
Jan‐08 Mar‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09
Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 31 Dec 2009
RDX liquidity ($mn): While the liquidity in GDRs, represented here by the RDX Index,
has recovered somewhat from its recent low, liquidity remains well short of its pre‐crisis
level.
5,000
4,000
Ave. value = $1,664
3,000
2,000 Ave. value = $854
Ave. value = $586 mn
1,000
0
Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jun‐08 Sep‐08 Dec‐08 Mar‐09 Jun‐09 Sep‐09 Dec‐09
Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 31 Dec 2009
7
EV/EBITDA 2010E: Russia also looks attractive on
12M FWD P/E: With a 12M FWD P/E of 9.1x, Russia P/BV 2010E: The same is true for 2010E P/BV ratios,
EV/EBITDA ratios, with a multiple of 5.1x, again the
has the lowest P/E ratio in the EM universe. with MSCI Russia's aggregate ratio at 1.1x.
lowest in the EM universe.
India 18.4 Indonesi 3.4 Argenti 26.5
Taiwan 17.5 India 3.2 India 10.0
Mexico 15.0 Argenti 2.6 Hungary 9.3
Indonesia 14.9 Mexico 2.6 Poland 8.5
Poland 14.8 China 2.3
Brazil 2.1 S.Africa 8.1
China 14.4 EM 7.6
Brazil 13.1 Czech 2.1
Taiwan 2.0 Turkey 7.6
S.Africa 11.9
Hungary 11.8 EM 1.9 Mexico 7.3
Thailand 11.6 Thailand 1.7 Indonesi 6.7
Czech 11.2 Turkey 1.7 Brazil 6.7
Argentina 10.5 S.Africa 1.6 China 6.5
Poland 1.5
MARKET VALUATIONS
EM 10.5 Thailand 6.4
Korea 1.4
Korea 10.5 Czech 5.2
Hungary 1.3
Turkey 10.3 Russia 5.1
Russia 1.1
Russia 9.1
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 5 10 15 20
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
P/CF 2010E: In addition, Russia has one of the lowest 2010E price/cash flow ratios Dividend yield 2010E: With one of the smallest expected dividend yields (2.4%) Russia
(5.8x) in the emerging market space. remains a limited dividend play.
Czech 6.4
Taiwan 10.5 Poland 4.2
Czech 10.3 Argenti 4.2
India 10.1 Thailand 4.1
China 9.3 Taiwan 3.9
Mexico 8.5 S.Africa 3.9
EM 8.3 Turkey 3.6
Brazil 8.1 Hungary 3.5
Thailand 5.9 Indonesi 3.4
Argentina 5.9 Brazil 3.1
Russia 5.8 China 3.0
S.Africa 5.5 EM 2.9
Turkey 5.4 Mexico 2.4
Korea 5.3 Russia 2.4
Poland 4.1 Korea 1.7
Hungary 3.3 India 1.2
0 3 6 9 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
8
Valuation and earnings matrix for selected emerging markets
12M FWD P/E P/BV 2010E P/BV 2011E (x) EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA P/CF 2010E (x) EPS growth EPS growth Current index
(x) (x) 2010E (x) 2011E (x) 2009E* 2010E* level vs 5Y ave.
Russia 9.1 1.1 1.0 5.1 4.2 5.8 ‐45% 36% ‐7%
Argentina 10.5 2.6 2.4 26.5 23.7 5.9 ‐66% 14% 2%
MARKET VALUATIONS
Czech 11.2 2.1 2.0 5.2 5.0 10.3 4% ‐2% 12%
Turkey 10.3 1.7 1.5 7.6 6.3 5.4 ‐3% 10% 27%
S.Africa 11.9 1.6 1.2 8.1 6.6 5.5 ‐21% 14% 28%
Brazil 13.1 2.1 1.9 6.7 5.8 8.1 ‐6% 22% 71%
Poland 14.8 1.5 1.4 8.5 7.3 4.1 ‐34% 14% ‐4%
Mexico 15.0 2.6 2.3 7.3 6.4 8.5 8% 17% 23%
EM 10.5 1.9 1.7 7.6 6.6 8.3 ‐10% 27% 28%
Korea 10.5 1.4 1.3 N/A N/A 5.3 25% 33% 16%
China 14.4 2.3 2.0 6.5 5.6 9.3 ‐1% 22% 46%
India 18.4 3.2 2.8 10.0 8.0 10.1 ‐4% ‐2% 45%
Taiwan 17.5 2.0 1.9 N/A N/A 10.5 ‐25% 71% 10%
Thailand 11.6 1.7 1.5 6.4 5.5 N/A ‐9% 13% 19%
Hungary 11.8 1.3 1.2 9.3 6.9 3.3 ‐39% 15% ‐2%
Indonesia 14.9 3.4 2.9 6.7 5.8 1.7 2% 13% 66%
* Note that for EPS growth, dark red shading refers to the highest number and dark grey the lowest
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010, except Current index level vs 5Y ave. which is 31 Dec 2009
Lowest ratios
Mid‐range
Highest ratios
9
12M FWD P/E; current vs six months ago: Over the 12M FWD P/E: Relative to MSCI EM and World 12M FWD P/E discount/premium vs EM and
past six months Russia's P/E has re‐rated across the indices, Russia is looking increasingly attractive on World: Russia trades at a 14% discount to EM
board, with the market agreggate P/E rising 71%. 12M FWD P/E ratios. (Energy 28%, Materials 6%, Telecoms 14%).
12M FWD P/E 12m FWD P/E 6 M AGO Russia EM World Russia vs EM Russia vs World
20 12
HEALTH CARE 14 15%
14 HEALTH CARE 0%
12
15 TELECOMS
10 12 TELECOMS ‐14%
‐14%
15
10 CONS STAPLES 18 CONS STAPLES 55%
23 27%
18 ‐21%
5 MATERIALS 15 MATERIALS
14 ‐6%
13 ‐45%
ENERGY 10
MARKET VALUATIONS
7 ENERGY ‐28%
0
15 ‐38%
HEALTH
MARKET
MATERIALS
ENERGY
STAPLES
TELECOMS
MARKET Aggr. 11
CARE
CONS
MARKET Aggr.
Aggr.
9 ‐14%
P/BV: Discount/premium vs EM and World
P/BV 2009 vs 2010E: The market currently expects a Financials stocks 2010E P/BV: Russian Financials
marginal expanion of book value in 2010. currently look expensive on 2010E P/BV multiples.
3 World 1.2
UTILITIES ‐62%
‐36%
‐43%
MARKET Aggr. ‐41%
2
EM 1.9 ENERGY ‐54%
‐43%
1
FINANCIALS 28%
14%
0 MATERIALS ‐7%
Russia 2.1 1%
MATERIALS
FINANCIALS
TELECOMS
MARKET
ENERGY
UTILITIES
Aggr.
TELECOMS 66%
25%
10
MSCI Russia vs EM and World indices, EV/EBITDA 2010E MSCI Russia, EV/EBITDA 2010E vs 2011E
2010 2011
Russia EM World 10
8.8
5.4 8.0
TELECOMS 5.0 8
8.8 6.9
7.6 5.8
MATERIALS 7.8
6.9 6 5.1
4.1 4.4 4.2
MARKET Aggr. 7.6 11.9 3.7
5.1 4
5.1 2.8
ENERGY 5.6
MARKET VALUATIONS
4.4 2
7.3
UTILITIES 6.7
4.1 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 UTILITIES ENERGY MARKET Aggr. MATERIALS TELECOMS
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
MSCI Russia vs EM and World indices, P/CF 2010E MSCI Russia P/CF, 2010E vs 2011E
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
11
MSCI Russia and EM 12M FWD EPS (Jan 2008=100) MSCI Russia Energy and EM Energy 12M FWD EPS MSCI Russia Materials and EM Materials 12M
(Jan 2008=100) FWD EPS (Jan 2008=100)
COMPANY EARNINGS
70 70 70
60
50 50 50
Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
40 50 0
Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
12
Earnings growth, 2009 (%): The consensus (IBES) earnings outlook for FY09 is for a Earnings growth, 2010E (%): In a sharp contrast, the consensus (IBES) expects a
contraction of 45% ‐ one of the most negative outlooks in the EM space. rebound in earings with 34% aggregate growth
COMPANY EARNINGS
Poland ‐34% Poland 13%
Hungary ‐39% Turkey 10%
Russia ‐45% India ‐2%
Argentina ‐66% Czech ‐2%
‐80% ‐60% ‐40% ‐20% 0% 20% ‐5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
13
Oil price (Brent $/barrel) Gold price and inventories Nickel price and inventories
COMMODITIES
0
200 0 200 0
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
0
1,200 0 1,200 0
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
14
Platinum price and inventories Palladium price and inventories Silver price and inventories
20 130,000
2,500 10,000
1,800 900
8,000 120,000
2,000 15
1,300 1,500 600 6,000 110,000
10
1,000 4,000 100,000
800 300
2,000 5 90,000
500
COMMODITIES
300 0 0 0 0 80,000
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
Baltic Dry Index and HSBC Global Steel Index Selected Reuters commodity indices
Baltic Dry Index (lsc) CRB Spot metals
CRB Spot all commodities (rsc)
12,200 Global Steel HSBC Index (rsc) 1,500 CRB Raw Industrials 550
10,200 1,300 900
1,100 450
8,200 750
900
6,200 600
700 350
4,200
500 450
2,200 250
300
300
200 100
150 150
‐1,800 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 ‐100
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Dec 2009
15
Official RUB/USD and RUB/EUR exchange rates Real RUB/USD and RUB/EUR exchange rates (Dec 97=100)
45
130
40
35 110
30
90
25
20 70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CURRENCIES
Source: CBR Source: CBR, Aton estimates
1M change in major EM and frontier market currencies (%) 12M change in major EM and frontier market currencies (%)
‐5% ‐4% ‐3% ‐2% ‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% ‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20%
Source: CBR, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010 Source: CBR, Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
16
Monetary policy rates; levels and change from pre‐crisis Key rate difference with US Fed Funds Rates (%): Policy rate in BRIC (%): The CBR is currently the
peak (%): Together with Brazil, Russia currently has the Russia and Brazil also see the biggest differentiantial only central bank in the BRIC to remain in easing
highest interest rate in the EM space. vs the Fed Funds rate. mode.
Russia ‐4.3 8.8
Brasil ‐5.0 Russia 8.5 20
8.8 Brasil 8.5
S.Africa ‐5.0 7.0 18
‐4.0 Turkey 6.8
Kazakhstan 7.0 Hungary 6.8 16
Turkey ‐10.3 6.5 S.Africa 6.3 Brazil
‐5.3 14
Hungary
China Kazakhsta
Bulgaria Indonesia 1300
Brasil Russia ‐948.9
Kazakhstan Philippines
Korea Turkey 1100
Turkey
Russia 164.5 Estonia
Mexico South
Estonia Korea 900
Argentina Bulgaria
Croatia Croatia
Poland Mexico 700
Indonesia Malaysia
Czech Republic Thailand
South Africa Hungary 500
Philippines Brasil
Thailand Poland
Malaysia Czech 300
China 164.5
0 50 100 150 200
‐1500 ‐1200 ‐900 ‐600 ‐300 0 100
Aug‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09
17
Russia 30‐Y Eurobond spread (bpts) MosPrime Rates
Cost of equity (bpts): Russia 5Y CDS spread x RTS
Index excess volatility over S&P 500 volatility
MosPrime rate O/N, % MosPrime Rate 3M,%
1,400
1,800 30
1,200
1,500 25
1,000
REPO rate, Overnight
RUB SWAP O/N, % REPO Rate O/N,%
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Aug‐08 Dec‐08 Apr‐09 Aug‐09 Dec‐09
Source: Bloomberg, 13 Jan 2010
18
Quarterly GDP real growth rate (% YoY): In 3Q09 BRIC GDP growth (% YoY): Within the BRIC
Nominal GDP (RUBbn): Russia's nominal GDP equalled
Russian GDP shrank by 8.9%, an improvement on a quartet Russia saw the largest GDP decline in
RUB10.5trn in 3Q09.
10.9% contraction in 2Q09. 9M09.
‐3 7,000
‐5%
6,000
‐10% ‐8
5,000
THE ECONOMY
‐15% ‐13 4,000
1Q00 4Q01 3Q03 2Q05 1Q07 4Q08 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
GDP real growth rate in 9M09 (% YoY): With a 9.9% contraction in GDP in 9M09 Russia 2010 GDP growth estimate (%): We suggest that Russian GDP may outperform in 2010
is one of the worst affected economies from the recession. (+5.8%) vs its peers, although mainly due to a base effect.
China China
India 6.7 7.6 India 6.4
9
Indonesia 4.2 Russia* 5.8
Korea 2.0 Turkey 3.7
Poland 1.2 Thailand 3.7
Malaysia 0.9 Taiwan 3.7
Philippines 0.7 Korea 3.6
Taiwan 0.7 Brazil 3.5
Brazil 0.5 Mexico 3.3
Argentina 0.3 Indonesia 3.2
South ‐0.9 Malaysia 2.5
Thailand ‐1.2 Poland 2.2
Mexico ‐1.3 Kazakhstan 2.0
Kazakhstan ‐1.7 South Africa 1.7
Hungary ‐7.1 Argentina 1.5
Turkey ‐8.6 Philippines 0.972
Russia ‐9.9 Hungary ‐0.9
Estonia ‐15.6 Estonia ‐2.6
Source: Rosstat, Bloomberg Source: IMF, *Aton estimates
19
Industrial production and Fixed investment (% YoY): Structure of inductrial production (% YoY): Mining PMI: The service PMI remains comfortably above
A visible recovery in IP and fixed investment. In Nov 09 and basic services resumed positive growth in Nov 09. 50 (expansion) while the manufacturing PMI
IP returned to positive YoY growth. posted a reading below 50 in Dec 09.
Industrial Production Fixed Investment Mining Manufacturing Basic Services 65
25% 60
25%
Services
55
15% 15%
Manufacturing
50
5% 5%
45
‐5% ‐5%
40
‐15% ‐15% 35
THE ECONOMY
‐25% ‐25% 30
'00 '01 '03 '04 '06 '07 '09 '02 '03 '05 '06 '08 '09 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09
10% 15%
15
9%
5% 10
8%
7%
‐5% 5
6%
5% ‐15% 0
'00 '01 '03 '04 '06 '07 '09 '00 '01 '03 '04 '06 '07 '09 1Q95 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09
20
Federal Budget (%/GDP): Despite a recovery in the oil price a hike in spending, related Federal Budget balance and Reserve+Wellbeing Funds (%/GDP): Oil price rebound
to fiscal stimulus efforts, means that the budget balance remains in the red (‐5.1% of halts depletion of fiscal funds. In Nov 09 the combined Reserve and National Wellbeing
GDP in Nov 09). Funds equalled 12.1% of GDP.
Revenues Spending Balance Deficit Reserve Fund+Wellbeing Fund
40% 30%
30% 20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
‐10%
‐10%
THE ECONOMY
‐20% ‐20%
2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Ministry of Finance, Rosstat Source: Ministry of Finance, Rosstat
Gross and net FDI ($bn): Over the last two reported quarters Russia has seen an Current account balance (%/GDP): The current account surplus reached 3.6% of GDP in
increase in inward FDI. In 3Q09, it amounted to $12bn, down 29% YoY. 9M09 (4.4% of GDP in 3Q09, down 50% YoY).
Gross FDI Net FDI 25
25
20 20
15
10 15
5
10
0
‐5 5
‐10
‐15 0
1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
Source: CBR Source: CBR
21
External debt/GDP (%): Russia's external debt External debt/Export revenue (%): Equally, the International reserves vs total external short‐term
situation is undemanding with total debt equal to 35% debt level when set against export revenues debt (%): Russia's total external short‐term debt is
of GDP and government debt only 2% of GDP. remains low. covered eight times by its international reserves.
General Government General Government
50% 200%
800%
40% 160%
600%
30% 120%
400%
20% 80%
200%
10% 40%
THE ECONOMY
0% 0% 0%
1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
25 150%
40
20 120%
30
15 90%
20
10 60%
10
5 30%
0
0 0%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
22
Monetary aggregates M2, M0, YoY (%): M2 showed YoY growth of M2 and M0 minus YoY GDP growth (%):
M2/GDP (%, 3M Ave.): Russia's monetisation of the
slight positive YoY growth in Nov 09 while M0 is still in M2 is again growing slightly faster than GDP, with Russia
economy remains low at just above 30% (at Nov 09).
decline. creaping back into excess liquidity territory.
M2 M0 M2 GR‐GDP GR M0 GR‐GDP GR M2/GDP
M2/GDP
60%
65% 40%
40% 35%
55%
45% 20% 30%
35% 0% 25%
25% 20%
‐20%
15% 15%
‐40%
5% 10%
‐5% ‐60% 5%
‐15%
THE ECONOMY
‐80% 0%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
M2 velocity (GDP/M2): Velocity of M2 has been rising PPI and oil price (% YoY): The recent uptick in
Inflation, (% YoY): CPI has fallen amid contracting
recently, caused by rouble volatility and a sharper producer price inflation appears related to the oil
demand, reaching 8.8% by Dec 09. PPI has risen lately…
drop in GDP relative to money supply. price recovery.
Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Urals (lsc) PPI (rsc)
10
100% 40%
9 30% 80%
8 30%
20% 60%
7 20%
40%
6 10%
20% 10%
5
0% 0%
4 0%
‐20%
3 ‐10% ‐10%
‐40%
2
‐20% ‐60% ‐20%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
23
Loan/deposit ratio (%): The aggregate loan/deposit Loans, Deposits in roubles (% YoY): Deposits grew Loans, Deposits in dollars (% YoY): In dollar terms
ratio has been declining as the rise in deposits has 19.5% in Nov 09 while the slowdown in credit growth the growth in deposits was less pronounced and
outpaced credit growth. was halted. credits are still declining.
120% Total Deposits RUB, YoY Total Loans RUB, YoY Total Deposits, $ YoY Total Loans, $YoY
60%
70%
50%
110%
40% 50%
30% 30%
100%
20%
10%
90% 10%
0% ‐10%
THE ECONOMY
80% ‐10% ‐30%
2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
0% ‐10% 0%
Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
24
Key economic indicators (monthly)
KEY INDICATORS Jul‐08 Aug‐08 Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 Dec‐08 Jan‐09 Feb‐09 Mar‐09 Apr‐09 May‐09 Jun‐09 Jul‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09 Oct‐09 Nov‐09
Nominal GDP (RUBbn) 3,745 3,838 4,160 3,911 3,763 4,070 2,512 2,759 3,007 3,085 3,150 3,151 3,480 3,440 3,749 3,620 3,463
Industrial output growth, (%) 3.6% 2.9% 4.7% 3.9% ‐0.6% ‐6.1% ‐11.7% ‐13.2% ‐14.3% ‐14.6% ‐15.9% ‐15.4% ‐13.3% ‐11.8% ‐11.0% ‐11.1% ‐6.4%
Fixed investment (%) 10.7% 10.1% 14.3% 5.3% ‐0.9% ‐7.5% ‐16.0% ‐14.8% ‐16.1% ‐17.4% ‐24.5% ‐20.6% ‐18.9% ‐19.4% ‐18.6% ‐17.9% ‐14.8%
Real retail sales (%) 15.5% 14.6% 14.8% 12.9% 8.5% 5.3% 4.5% ‐1.4% ‐3.0% ‐4.5% ‐5.6% ‐6.5% ‐8.2% ‐9.6% ‐9.7% ‐8.4% ‐6.4%
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Real disposable income (%) 6.0% 8.3% ‐0.7% ‐1.3% ‐5.8% ‐11.3% ‐5.6% 1.3% 4.1% 1.9% 4.4% 2.9% ‐2.3% ‐8.5% 2.4% 9.9% 1.9%
Real wage (%) 13.6% 12.1% 11.4% 9.7% 4.9% 1.8% 1.9% ‐2.4% ‐1.8% ‐4.3% ‐4.3% ‐3.3% ‐5.4% ‐5.2% ‐4.9% ‐3.5% ‐0.7%
Average wage ($/month) 285.4 280.8 285.2 282.5 279.4 275.0 262.7 268.0 260.2 263.9 262.5 267.9 270.0 266.2 271.2 272.6 277.4
Uneployment, (% ILO) 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 6.6% 7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.5% 9.2% 8.8% 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.6% 7.7% 8.1%
PRICES
CPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 14.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.3% 13.8% 13.3% 13.4% 13.9% 14.0% 13.2% 12.3% 11.9% 12.0% 11.6% 10.7% 9.7% 9.1%
CPI growth (% average) 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
PPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 33.5% 31.5% 25.6% 17.5% 4.4% ‐7.0% ‐11.6% ‐7.7% ‐5.7% ‐7.6% ‐10.2% ‐12.5% ‐15.5% ‐14.7% ‐9.2% ‐3.6% 4.7%
PPI growth (% average) 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3%
TRADE
Exports ($ n) 47.3 45.7 43.8 39.1 30.3 28.6 17.9 18.6 20.9 21.3 22.7 24.5 26.3 27.1 29.2 30.4 31.1
Imports ($bn) 28.6 27.1 27.2 27.5 21.9 24.0 10.5 13.4 14.5 14.7 13.8 15.4 16.1 15.6 17.6 19.2 19.4
Trade balance ($bn) 18.7 18.6 16.6 11.6 8.5 4.6 7.5 5.2 6.4 6.5 8.9 9.2 10.2 11.5 11.6 11.2 11.6
Oil price ($/bbl, Urals Med, aop) 130.4 111.4 97.8 71.3 51.7 40.2 43.9 42.8 45.4 49.6 57.4 68.3 64.7 71.9 67.6 72.9 76.3
FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues, (RUBbn) 1,306.1 727.7 751.2 937.1 570.6 610.7 772.0 448.3 512.4 488.8 420.0 526.9 633.6 622.4 683.6 673.2 658.7
Revenues, (%/GDP) 34.9% 19.0% 18.1% 24.0% 15.2% 15.0% 30.7% 16.2% 17.0% 15.8% 13.3% 16.7% 18.2% 18.1% 18.2% 18.6% 19.0%
Expenditures (RUBbn) 562.3 499.4 536.9 715.2 842.8 1,414.4 395.5 692.3 674.6 810.8 544.7 803.9 805.0 881.3 882.9 827.2 933.0
Expenditures (%/GDP) 15.0% 13.0% 12.9% 18.3% 22.4% 34.8% 15.7% 25.1% 22.4% 26.3% 17.3% 25.5% 23.1% 25.6% 23.5% 22.9% 26.9%
Fiscal balance (%/GDP) 19.9% 5.9% 5.2% 5.7% ‐7.2% ‐19.7% 15.0% ‐8.8% ‐5.4% ‐10.4% ‐4.0% ‐2.7% ‐6.3% ‐5.8% ‐5.8% ‐4.9% ‐5.1%
MONETARY INDICATORS
Gross international reserves ($bn) 162.3 174.5 189.6 197.4 209.0 225.1 221.8 220.2 206.8 193.1 190.8 184.4 179.6 176.4 168.2 170.6 168.0
M0 (RUBbn eop) 3,807 3,887 3,904 3,962 3,793 3,795 3,313 3,302 3,278 3,410 3,462 3,523 3,550 3,507 3,486 3,567 3,600
M0 growth (%) 23.3% 22.6% 21.2% 21.6% 12.4% 2.5% ‐4.4% ‐5.3% ‐5.7% ‐5.3% ‐5.3% ‐5.4% ‐6.8% ‐9.8% ‐10.7% ‐10.0% ‐5.1%
M2 (RUBbn eop) 14,210 14,530 14,375 13,520 13,226 13,493 11,991 12,021 12,112 12,339 12,861 13,161 13,121 13,305 13,650 13,875 14,224
M2 growth (%) 30.1% 30.2% 25.1% 18.4% 8.7% 1.7% ‐7.2% ‐8.1% ‐9.5% ‐7.6% ‐6.3% ‐7.6% ‐7.7% ‐8.4% ‐5.0% 2.6% 7.5%
M2/GDP (% average) 31.6% 31.5% 28.8% 28.8% 29.3% 27.6% 39.8% 36.3% 33.6% 33.3% 34.0% 34.8% 31.4% 32.2% 30.3% 31.9% 34.2%
EXCHANGE RATES
RUB/$ (eop) 23.5 24.6 25.3 26.5 27.6 29.4 35.4 35.7 34.0 33.3 31.0 31.3 31.8 31.6 30.1 29.0 29.8
RUB/$ (aop) 23.4 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.1 31.5 35.8 34.7 33.6 32.1 31.1 31.5 31.7 30.9 29.5 28.9
RUB/€ (eop) 36.5 36.2 36.4 35.0 35.7 41.4 45.7 45.4 44.9 43.8 43.4 43.8 44.7 45.3 44.0 43.1 44.4
R/€ (aop) 36.8 36.3 36.3 35.3 34.7 37.9 42.4 45.7 45.3 44.3 43.6 43.5 44.4 45.1 44.9 43.6 43.1
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/$ (%) 18.7% 14.0% 8.4% 2.6% ‐0.7% ‐5.4% ‐21.6% ‐23.2% ‐20.8% ‐18.9% ‐12.8% ‐14.9% ‐15.5% ‐11.8% ‐5.9% 0.4% ‐0.7%
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/€, (%) 5.5% 7.2% 8.0% 12.5% 12.5% ‐3.3% ‐11.1% ‐9.6% ‐6.5% ‐5.3% ‐4.8% ‐5.6% ‐7.8% ‐10.6% ‐8.2% ‐10.6% ‐12.5%
Source:Rosstat, CBR, Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg
Key economic indicators (quarterly)
KEY INDICATORS 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
Nominal GDP (RUBbn) 5,812 6,390 7,299 7,403 6,750 7,765 8,905 9,692 8,891 10,193 11,640 10,944 8,483 9,326 10,490
Real GDP growth, (%) 6.6% 7.6% 7.8% 8.5% 7.5% 8.0% 7.7% 9.0% 8.7% 7.5% 6.0% 1.2% ‐9.8% ‐10.9% ‐8.9%
Industrial output growth, (%) 4.2% 5.8% 6.7% 7.9% 7.0% 6.7% 7.3% 4.9% 5.7% 6.9% 3.8% ‐1.0% ‐13.0% ‐15.3% ‐12.0%
Fixed investment (%) 9.9% 14.7% 16.2% 20.2% 23.2% 23.7% 23.5% 19.6% 23.4% 21.8% 12.0% 5.0% ‐12.2% ‐18.8% ‐20.0%
Real retail sales (%) 12.2% 12.6% 15.3% 15.2% 15.0% 15.3% 16.5% 16.6% 17.3% 15.6% 15.0% 11.7% 3.0% ‐4.3% ‐8.0%
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Real disposable income (%) 12.3% 12.7% 16.3% 13.2% 12.8% 10.8% 11.4% 12.9% 9.9% 6.6% 5.0% ‐2.2% ‐4.3% 3.0% ‐1.3%
Real wage (%) 11.6% 12.3% 15.0% 14.7% 17.0% 17.7% 14.6% 14.9% 14.5% 13.2% 12.3% 8.4% 0.8% ‐3.4% ‐4.7%
Average wage ($/month) 334 382 409 459 452 503 529 639 636 718 726 695 515 573 596
Uneployment, (% ILO) 7.8% 7.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.7% 5.7% 5.9% 7.1% 9.1% 8.5% 7.9%
PRICES
CPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 10.6% 9.0% 9.4% 9.0% 7.4% 8.5% 9.3% 11.9% 13.3% 15.2% 15.1% 13.3% 14.0% 11.9% 10.7%
PPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 14.2% 12.6% 4.9% 5.1% 13.1% 12.1% 25.1% 26.6% 27.6% 25.6% ‐7.0% ‐5.7% ‐12.5% ‐9.2% 0.0%
TRADE
Exports ($ n) 67.3 76.6 79.8 79.8 71.7 83.7 89.5 109.5 110.1 126.7 136.8 98.0 57.4 68.5 82.5
Imports ($bn) 30.9 38.8 42.6 52.0 42.8 52.8 58.3 69.6 60.2 75.4 82.9 73.3 38.4 43.9 49.3
Trade balance ($bn) 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5
Current account ($bn) 30,470 24,414 23,960 15,842 22,609 14,522 15,658 24,224 38,000 26,187 29,549 8,595 9,419 7,636 14,945
Current account ratio (%/GDP) 14.8 10.4 8.8 5.7 11.6 4.8 6.2 9.0 10.4 6.1 6.2 2.1 3.8 2.6 4.4
Oil price ($/bbl, Urals Med, aop) 58.3 64.9 65.8 55.9 54.6 65.1 72.1 85.8 93.4 118.0 113.2 54.4 44.0 58.4 204.1
FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues, (RUBbn) 1,399 1,539 1,623 1,718 1,422 1,824 1,842 2,694 1,933 2,438 2,785 2,118 1,733 1,436 0
Revenues, (%/GDP) 24.1% 24.1% 22.2% 23.2% 21.1% 23.5% 20.7% 27.8% 21.7% 23.9% 23.9% 19.4% 20.4% 15.4% 0.0%
Expenditures (RUBbn) 823 1,032 1,012 1,418 946 1,224 1,295 2,522 1,333 1,663 1,599 2,972 1,762 2,159 0
Expenditures (%/GDP) 14.2% 16.1% 13.9% 19.2% 14.0% 15.8% 14.5% 26.0% 15.0% 16.3% 13.7% 27.2% 20.8% 23.2% 0.0%
Fiscal balance (%/GDP) 9.9% 7.9% 8.4% 4.0% 7.1% 7.7% 6.1% 1.8% 6.7% 7.6% 10.2% ‐7.8% ‐0.4% ‐7.8% 0.0%
MONETARY INDICATORS
Gross international reserves ($bn) 1,677 1,800 1,931 2,067 2,207 1,731 1,894 2,049 2,190 2,347 2,647 2,709 2,812 2,921 3,027
M0 (RUBbn eop) 1,929 2,233 2,401 2,785 2,741 3,028 3,221 3,702 3,476 3,725 3,904 3,795 3,278 3,462 3,507
M0 growth (%) 30.2% 35.3% 37.9% 38.6% 42.1% 35.6% 34.2% 32.9% 26.8% 23.0% 21.2% 2.5% ‐5.7% ‐5.4% ‐10.7%
M2 (RUBbn eop) 6,169 7,091 7,751 8,996 9,413 10,858 11,494 13,272 13,383 14,245 14,375 13,493 12,112 12,861 13,305
M2 growth (%) 37.9% 43.9% 46.4% 48.8% 52.6% 53.1% 48.3% 47.5% 42.2% 31.2% 25.1% 1.7% ‐9.5% ‐7.6% ‐5.0%
M2/GDP (% average) 28.5% 25.7% 25.5% 28.5% 33.7% 35.7% 33.2% 31.2% 39.5% 33.6% 30.7% 29.0% 36.6% 34.1% 33.2%
EXCHANGE RATES
RUB/$ (eop) 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.0 24.6 23.5 23.5 25.3 29.4 34.0 31.3 30.1
RUB/$ (aop) 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.5 34.5 25.8 35.1 35.9 24.3 23.6 24.3 27.3 34.0 32.2 30.9
RUB/€ (eop) 33.5 34.0 34.0 34.7 34.7 34.7 35.4 35.9 37.1 36.9 36.4 41.4 44.9 43.8 44.0
R/€ (aop) 33.8 34.2 34.1 34.5 26.3 34.9 25.5 24.6 36.3 36.9 36.5 36.0 44.4 43.8 44.9
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/$ (%) 7.9% 2.6% 1.6% 3.1% 3.6% 2.0% 4.6% 4.0% 8.3% 2.5% ‐6.2% ‐9.0% ‐9.5% 9.9% 0.0%
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/€, (%) 6.7% ‐1.5% 1.0% ‐0.9% 2.9% 1.2% ‐0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 2.9% 3.3% ‐9.5% ‐2.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Source: Rosstat, CBR, Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg
Macroeconomic forecast
KEY INDICATORS 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
Nominal GDP (RUBbn) 13,243 17,048 21,625 26,904 33,112 41,668 38,899 46,475
GDP ($ n) 432 592 764 989 1,294 1,677 1,196 1,518
GDP per capita ($) 2,984 4,116 5,342 6,943 9,109 11,808 8,457 10,776
Real GDP growth, (%) 7.3 7.1 6.4 7.4 8.1 5.6 ‐7.7 5.8
Industrial output growth, (%) 8.9 8.0 5.1 6.3 6.4 2.6 ‐9.2 5.2
Fixed investment (%) 12.1 14.6 10.0 15.6 22.9 13.2 ‐14.5 5.0
Real retail sales (%) 8.8 12.1 12.8 13.9 16.0 14.0 ‐4.4 7.3
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Real disposable income (%) 15 11 12 13 12 3 ‐1 8
Real wage (%) 10.3 11.2 9.9 13.4 16.2 11.0 ‐2.8 7.0
Average wage ($/month) 180 237 302 396 531 694 575 731
Uneployment, (% ILO) 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.1 6.4 10.3 8.7
PRICES
CPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 12.0 11.7 10.9 9.0 11.9 13.3 8.8 8.0
PPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 13.0 28.9 18.2 4.9 25.1 ‐7.0 8.5 12.0
TRADE
Exports ($ n) 135.9 183.2 243.8 303.6 354.4 471.6 300.2 362.5
Imports ($bn) 76 97 125 164 223 292 208 264
Trade balance ($bn) 59.9 85.8 118.4 139.3 130.9 179.7 92.0 98.2
Current account ($bn) 35.4 58.6 84.6 94.7 77.0 102.3 46.0 58.9
Current account ratio (%/GDP) 8.2 9.9 11.1 9.6 5.9 6.1 3.8 3.9
Oil price ($/bbl, Urals Med, aop) 27 34 50 61 69 95 58 73
FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues, (%/GDP) 20 20 24 23 23 22 18 17
Expenditures (%/GDP) 17.8 15.8 16.3 15.9 18.1 18.2 25.7 21.1
Fiscal balance (%/GDP) 1.7 4.3 7.5 7.4 5.4 4.1 ‐7.6 ‐4.0
MONETARY INDICATORS
Gross international reserves ($bn) 77 125 182 304 479 427 377 398
M0 (RUBbn eop) 1,147 1,535 2,009 2,785 3,702 3,795 4,057 4,960
M0 growth (%) 50.3 33.8 30.9 38.6 32.9 2.5 6.9 22.2
M2 (RUBbn eop) 3,213 4,363 6,046 8,996 13,272 13,493 14,700 17,714
M2 growth (%) 50.5 35.8 38.6 48.8 47.5 1.7 8.9 20.5
M2/GDP (% average) 19.3 21.4 22.9 26.4 32.5 32.8 33.4 33.4
EXCHANGE RATES
RUB/$ (eop) 29.5 27.7 28.8 26.3 24.6 29.4 31.3 30.0
RUB/$ (aop) 30.7 28.8 28.3 27.2 25.6 24.9 32.5 30.6
RUB/€ (eop) 36.8 37.8 34.2 34.7 35.9 41.4 44.0 43.7
R/€ (aop) 34.7 35.8 35.2 34.1 35.1 36.4 44.2 43.9
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/$ (%) 18.6 14.8 3.4 16.2 15.3 ‐5.4 3.8 10.5
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/€, (%) ‐1.3 6.3 20.0 5.4 4.8 ‐3.3 3.2 7.4
Source: Rosstat, CBR, Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, Aton estimates
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and interpreting market information.
Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views in the material constitute a judgment as at the date of the material. If the date of the material is not current, the views and contents may not reflect the analysts’ current thinking. The material has been produced
independently of the company and any ratings, forecasts, estimates and opinions reflect only the analyst’s personal view. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated therein are accurate and that the forecasts, estimates, opinions and views
contained therein are fair and reasonable, neither the analysts, the company, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, have verified the contents thereof unless disclosed otherwise below. Accordingly, neither the analysts, the company, nor any of its directors, officers or
employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents thereof, and no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in the material.
Neither the analysts, the company, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of the material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Each analyst and/or persons connected
with any of them may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the data or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. This material may not be relied upon by any of its recipients or any other person in making investment decisions with respect to
the company’s securities. The material does not constitute a valuation of the company’s business, assets or securities for the purposes of the legislation on valuation activities for the company’s country.
No part of his or her compensation was, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views in the material. Analysts’ compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit investor clients. Like all of
ATON LLC employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall ATON LLC profitability, which includes revenues from other business units within ATON LLC.
Each analyst or his or her affiliated company or other persons is or may be a member of underwriting group in a respect of proposed offering of the securities of the company. Each analyst may in the future participate in an offering of the company’s securities.
Investment ratings
Investment ratings are a function of ATONLINE LIMITED expectation of total return on equity (forecast price appreciation and dividend yield within the next 12 months, unless stated otherwise in the material).
The investment ratings may be determined by the following standard ranges:
Buy (expected total return of 15% or more);
Hold (expected total return of 0‐15%);
Sell (expected negative total return).
Standard ranges do not always apply to emerging markets securities and ratings may be assigned on the basis of the analyst’s knowledge of the securities. Investment ratings are determined at the time of initiation of coverage of a company of equity securities, or a change in
target price of any of the company’s equity securities. At other times, the expected total returns may fall outside of the range used at the time of setting a rating because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations will be permitted but will be subject to review
by Research Department Management. It may be necessary to temporarily place the investment rating “Under Review” during which period the previously stated investment rating may no longer reflect the analysts’ current thinking. For companies where ATONLINE LIMITED
has not expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage, to keep you informed, analysts may prepare material covering significant events or background information without an investment rating. Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your
personal investment objectives and should be made only after evaluating the security’s expected performance and risk.
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