Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Vol:3 2009-03-29
407
408
38 BT
12 BT
667
511
TWh
185279
141946
GWYr
21151
16204
Electricity
Potential
GWe-Yr
Billion kWh
Year
Total Energy
Requirement
7614
5833
@ GDP
Growth
rate
61000 T
28.9
3699
7992
1207616
913
11730
8
328
42231
225000 T
150
GWe
100
GWe
13622
3783886
43195
0
155502
6.0
1679
192
69
92
33
Non2.9
803
Conventional
Renewables
Source: Sudhinder Thakur and Sekar, 2005
Energy
Required
at Bus Bar
@ GDP
Growth
rate
Installed
Capacity
Required
(GW)
@ GDP
Growth
rate
@ GDP
Growth
rate
8%
9%
8%
9%
8%
9%
8%
2003-04
633
633
592
592
89
89
131
131
2006-07
761
774
712
724
107
109
153
155
2011-12
1097
1167
1026
1091
158
168
220
233
2016-17
1524
1687
1425
1577
226
250
306
337
2021-22
2118
2438
1980
2280
323
372
425
488
2026-27
2866
3423
2680
3201
437
522
575
685
2031-32
3880
4806
3628
4493
592
733
778
960
409
Projected
Peak
Demand
(GW)
9%
410
600000
B. Inter-scenario Comparison
The comparative analysis of the key results across all the
scenarios is presented in this section. It also provides a deeper
insight into the variations in the final electricity consumption
under alternative sets of assumptions. In the business-as-usual
scenario the electricity consumption increased by 6.2 times
over the study period where as in low growth scenario and
high growth scenario the electricity consumption increased by
4.4 and 9 times respectively.
Coal_pp
Gas_pp
Oil_pp
Hydro_pp
Nuclear_pp
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
2030
2020
Year
Business-asLow Growth
usual
600000
2010
High Growth
Scenario
Wind_pp
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
2030
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Nuclear
TABLE III
CUMULATIVE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
(2005-2035)
Scenario
Cumulative CO2 emissions
(million tones)
Business-as-usual
11151
Low growth
7473
High Growth
16409
High Nuclear
10135
Aggressive Renewables
10755
Wind
100%
80%
60%
VI. CONCLUSIONS
40%
20%
0%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
411
REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
[6]
[7]
[8]
412