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CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................2
I.
Introduction ..............................................................................................................3
II.
Objectives ................................................................................................................5
III.
Scope .......................................................................................................................7
IV.
V.
VI.
VII. A Practical Example: The Case Of a Natural Gas Liquid Extraction Project ..........15
VIII. Conclusions............................................................................................................32
IX.
References Cited....................................................................................................32
X.
Bibliography............................................................................................................33
Page 1
ABSTRACT
Prevailing wisdom indicates that the economic value of a capital project is defined at
the front end and must be assured through its EPC phase. Value has been
traditionally measured in terms of expected financial returns on the associated capital
investment; todays concept, however, goes deeper into the roots of value to include
plant supply reliability and availability, cost competitiveness and client satisfaction.
In order to achieve the expected level of project value at the front end it is necessary
to measure the impact of the different options of equipment configuration and
specification on the net present value of the CAPEX, OPEX and revenue cashflows
over the total life cycle. Performing these analyses, with the necessary efficiency and
accuracy, demands however the use of proven computerized modeling and
simulation techniques designed to readily answer these questions through
appropriate performance indicators.
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the validity and benefits of using a
Virtual Plant computer model throughout the projects conceptual development and
FEED phases in order to simulate and quantify the impact of the different design,
engineering and procurement options on the end project value.
Page 2
I.
Introduction
Capital projects represent the tangible version of a business idea when it
requires depreciable capital goods, designed and engineered to process and
generate specific products to be sold for an expected profit. Given the
availability and cost of the required feedstock and the market and price for the
end products, the success of a capital venture depends on the capacity of the
process facility to adequately deliver products on time, volume, specification and
cost, in order to generate the expected shareholder value.
Sound analysis, on the other hand, supports prevailing wisdom in that the
economic value of a capital project is defined at the front end and must be
assured through its EPC phase. Value has been traditionally measured in terms
of expected financial returns on the associated capital investment; todays
concept of value, however, goes deeper into its own roots to include plant
supply reliability and availability, cost competitiveness and client satisfaction.
To be able to achieve the desired level of project value at the front end it is
necessary to measure the impact of the different options of equipment
configuration and specification on the net present value of the CAPEX, OPEX
and revenue cashflows over the total life cycle. Performing these analyses, with
the necessary efficiency and accuracy, demands however the use of proven
computerized modeling and simulation techniques designed to readily answer
these questions through appropriate performance indicators.
The authors objective is to demonstrate the validity and benefits of using a
Virtual Plant throughout the conceptual development and FEED phases in
order to simulate and quantify the impact of the different design, engineering
and procurement options on the end project value. A Virtual Plant is a
computerized mathematical model of the plant and equipment system, designed
to answer specific questions regarding the systems ability to adequately fulfill
the requirements of the demand through simulation techniques.
Page 3
In order to achieve this purpose the authors will use the CAPITAL PROJECT
SIMULATION MODEL, CAPSIM, developed by their technical financial
consulting firm. CAPSIM is a comprehensive financial model that inserts the
Virtual Plant in the context of the CAPEX and OPEX environment that defines
and quantifies the capital and operating costs associated with the modeled
system. These three components of CAPSIM interact with each other thus
allowing the engineer to select the equipment configuration, specification and
procurement options that maximize project value over its total life cycle.
The methodology to be used in order to demonstrate the validity of the approach
is based on the application of the following ten steps to a particular project:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Complete and freeze basic engineering and perform comprehensive risk
analyses
In this paper the authors use a natural gas liquid extraction project as an
example to demonstrate the value enhancement capabilities of the proposed
approach.
XVII Gas Convention, AVPG, Caracas, Venezuela, May 23 - 25 th, 2006
Page 4
II.
Objectives
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the validity and benefits of using a
Virtual Plant computer model throughout the conceptual development and
FEED phases in order to simulate and quantify the impact of the different
design, engineering and procurement options on the end project value.
The proposed Virtual Plant approach constitutes a fundamental tool for this
purpose due to its capacity to model a specific plant and equipment system and
simulate its behavior over the projects life cycle. The systems mathematical
model is designed using process engineering information and defines the
functional relationship between equipment availability and the systems
production capacity; equipment availability is simulated using appropriate
reliability and maintainability probability density functions thus enabling the
model to process the performance indicators associated with the systems
production effectiveness and supply reliability and availability.
To achieve this objective the authors will use the CAPITAL PROJECT
SIMULATION MODEL, CAPSIM, a comprehensive financial computer model
that inserts the Virtual Plant model in the context of the CAPEX and OPEX
environment that defines and quantifies the capital and operating costs
associated with the modeled system, thus allowing the technical and economic
analysis and evaluation of design, engineering and procurement decisions over
the projects life cycle.
The Figure 1 is graphical description of the structure of the CAPSIM model.
Page 5
The three modules of CAPSIM interact with each other in order to generate the
fundamental performance indicators of project value from the standpoint of the
internal, external and financial strategic perspectives of the capital venture, at its
different stages of development throughout the life cycle.
The CAPEX cash flows are determined based on information obtained from the
appropriate class estimates and project execution schedules while the OPEX
cash flows are determined using the models own simulation results and
statistical operation and maintenance costs profiles.
Revenue cash flows and penalty costs can be calculated by associating
simulated production volumes and product price forecasts over the life cycle.
Page 6
III.
Scope
Given the availability and cost of the required feedstock and the market and
prices for the end products, the success of a capital venture depends
fundamentally on the capacity of the process facility to adequately meet demand
conditions at the right production cost. This paper will in consequence deal with
the root attributes that in essence define project value; that is, those associated
with plants ability to meet the adequate operation conditions set by the projects
business drivers.
These root attributes are defined in terms of internal and external performance
indicators that measure the plants capacity to reliably deliver products to clients
in the required volume and specification, and at adequate unit production costs.
The following are some of the root performance indicators that can be generated
by CAPSIM at the conceptual and FEED phases of a project:
1.
Page 7
2.
All these indicators are essential requirements to properly measure the financial
performance the project through appropriate indicators such as:
IV.
1.
2.
Page 8
Project Conceptualization
2.
Concept Development
3.
FEED
4.
Detailed engineering
5.
Procurement
6.
O&M
For the gas sector in particular we have used them in consulting engagements
at different stages of the value chain:
1.
2.
3.
4.
The following steps are required to design and simulate a Virtual Plant model
from existing process engineering data:
Page 9
1.
2.
3.
4.
Quantify plant production capacity for the different productive states of the
system
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Page 10
CAPSIM expands the scope of the Virtual Plant capabilities by adding to it the
capacity to incorporate the time value of money in the analyses and to generate
financial performance indicators. On the other hand, the insertion of the Virtual
Plant model in CAPSIM actually empowers the intrinsic capacities of the
traditional CAPEX/OPEX model by adding to it the ability to interact with the
plant itself.
The CAPEX capital cashflows are determined based on information obtained
from the appropriate class estimates and project execution schedules while the
OPEX expense cashflows are determined using the virtual models own
simulation results and statistical operation and maintenance costs profiles.
Revenue cashflows and penalty costs can be calculated by associating
simulated production volumes and product price forecasts over the life cycle.
By adequately structuring its PERFORMANCE, CAPEX and OPEX Modules,
CAPSIM is capable of generating all the internal, external and financial
performance indicators associated with the system being modeled.
CAPSIM has been used for projects in the gas industry mostly in the area of
analysis of procurement options.
The following information is required in order to structure the CAPEX Module of
CAPSIM:
1.
Installed capacity
2.
Equipment costs
3.
4.
5.
Page 11
1.
2.
3.
4.
Operating costs
VI.
Page 12
3.
4.
5.
Page 13
7.
8.
Page 14
If fulfillment is not validated, review and revise the bid analyses and
selection performed in step 7 and repeat the process until validation is
confirmed.
In case of selecting proposals from different manufactures, measure the
cost and benefits of equipment standardization.
9.
10. Complete and freeze basic engineering and perform comprehensive risk
analyses
VII. A Practical Example: The Case Of a Natural Gas Liquid Extraction Project
To illustrate the proposed process in this paper we will analyze the case of a
natural gas liquid extraction project proposed to supply the ethane requirements
of new ethylene plant.
The business idea
Presently there is a current of 950 MMSCFD of wet production associated gas
being used to provide fuel gas to an existing refinery and for transmission and
distribution of natural gas for domestic and industrial consumers.
The business idea is to extract the natural gas liquids by installing a new liquid
extraction facility on ethane extraction mode in order to sell 40.000 BPD of
ethane to a new ethylene plant.
The remaining NGL would be processed in an existing fractionation facility.
The residue gas produced by the new extraction facility would be used to satisfy
the requirements the refinery and the domestic and industrial clients.
Page 15
Page 16
Apply the ten steps process to design, engineer and procure project value
at the front end
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10. Complete and freeze basic engineering and perform comprehensive risk
analyses
Step 1 - Define plant adequate operation conditions
To operate adequately the new extraction plant must be able to deliver 40.000
BPD of ethane in specification at least 97.5 % of the time with a maximum
permissible interruption time of 36 hrs.
Step 2 - Design the Process Technology Model
Figure 3 shows the PT model to be simulated in order to identify critical
equipment functions.
Page 17
Extraction Train 1
Turboexpansion
Charge
pumping
Demethanization
Reflux
pumping
Propane
compression
Deethanization
Ethane
compression
Extraction Train 2
Hot oil
pumping
Turboexpansion
Charge
pumping
Demethanization
Residue gas
compression
Reflux
pumping
Deethanization
Page 18
Table I shows the RAM parameters applied to each equipment function in order
to simulate the results presented in Figure 4.
Compressors
1,100.00
10.00
Turbo expanders
2,150.00
8.00
Pumps
1,500.00
6.00
Vessels
20,000.00
40.00
In this paper the Weibull distribution will be used for all reliability and
maintainability simulations, using values of the shape parameter, equal to 1.00
and 2.50 respectively.
Step 4 - Select configuration arrangements for each critical equipment
function
Table II shows the process design operating conditions for each one of the
different compressor equipment functions to be configured.
Propane
Residue gas
Flow (MMSCFD)
68
190
800
45
36
122
415
62
500
Discharge pressure(psig)
780
250
1,300
Service
Page 19
Page 20
Figures 5, 6 and 7 show the results of the configuration analysis for the different
compressor equipment functions. The performance indicators to be used for
selection of configurations are Production Effectiveness and Mean Production
Loss per Interruption due to their direct impact on ethane production.
The results presented in the above mentioned figures indicate that for all
equipment functions the best configuration arrangement is 3x50%. In the next
step these configurations will be validated by inserting them into the model in
order to generate the required simulation results at the plant level.
Table III shows the input data used in order to model, simulate and evaluate the
indicated configurations for each equipment function using electric motor driven
centrifugal compressors.
Page 21
Propane
Residue gas
2 x 60%
3 x 50%
2 x 60%
3 x 50%
2 x 60%
3 x 50%
Equipment cost
MMUS$
5.04
6.83
12.23
16.56
10.43
13.04
Construction costs
MMUS$
15.12
20.48
36.68
49.68
31.29
39.11
TOTAL CAPEX
MMUS$
20.16
27.30
48.91
66.23
41.71
52.14
US$/yr
290,155
424,023
313,413
451,493
315,305
438,780
US$/yr
193,437
282,682
208,942
300,996
210,203
292,520
TOTAL OPEX
US$/yr
483,592
706,704
522,355
752,489
525,508
731,301
US$
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
US$
19,500
16,250
24,300
20,250
24,480
17,850
US$
117,000
100,750
178,200
148,500
183,600
127,500
hrs
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
hrs
10
10
10
10
10
10
hrs
40,000
40,000
40,000
40,000
40,000
40,000
hrs
19.5
16.25
24.3
20.25
24.48
17.85
hrs
80,000
80,000
80,000
80,000
80,000
80,000
hrs
117
100.75
178.2
148.5
183.6
127.5
Operation costs
RAM parameters
Page 22
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Page 26
10
Complete
and
freeze
basic
engineering
and
perform
Page 27
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Page 31
VIII. Conclusions
The discussion regarding project investment strategies has traditionally spun
heavily around the costs and benefits of investing in equipment reliability and
maintainability. Between those who preach that the benefits are there and those
who think that the numbers are not sufficiently substantiated to support the
lobbying effort for the extra capital required.
We believe that the missing links thus far have been the resources and
capabilities to assess the impact that investment decisions at the equipment
level have on the end financial results of the capital venture.
What we have presented in this paper is precisely an approach that allows the
analysts to not only evaluate the stand alone behavior of an equipment system
but, more importantly, to measure its impact on the fulfillment of the plant
performance and service quality indicators that are at the root of end project
value.
It is our conclusion that the proposed procedure and its practical application
show the strength and validity of the use of a Virtual Plant approach to design,
engineer and procure project value at the front end. It also shows the
importance of performing these analyses before equipment early procurement
efforts are otherwise initiated.
We cannot, on the other hand, overemphasize the importance of assuring the
resulting project value throughout the intensive time and cost dominated EPC
phase of the project. That is, if the shareholders want to receive the plant they
bet their money on.
IX.
References Cited
1.
Page 32
X.
Bibliography
1.
2.
3.
Nio, L.E. and Nio M., Modeling and Simulation of Capital Projects: How
to assure successful investments in the energy sector, Venezuelan
Association of Gas Processors, AVPG, XVI International Gas Convention,
Caracas, Venezuela, May 2004
4.
Page 33