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75%
25%
Sepsis Deal
Diabetes Deal
60%
40%
95%
5%
Up-fornt
Milestones
Royalty Rate
Annual Sales
Value
Solutions
First Alternative:
Wait for Six Months
Probability
Value
Firm Value
VC
Expected Value
Ownership
Weighted EV
Value-capital round
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$249,800,000.00
44%
$111,022,222.22
Weighted Expected Value
Alternative A ( Wait Six Months)
Deal = Success
Probability
75%
Weighted EV
$325,000,000
Expected Value $271,505,555.56
Second Alternative
Venture - capital
Probability
Value
Venture Capital
Expected Value
Expected Value
Deal = Success
Sepsis
Diabetes
60%
40%
$179,300,000.0
$624,800,000.0
$10,000,000
$10,000,000
$347,500,000.0
Firm Value
VC
Expected Value
Alternative B (Venture-capital)
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
Probability
Expected Value
Total EV
Ownership
Wtd EV
Deal = Success
Deal = Failure
75%
25%
$347,500,000.0
$259,800,000.0
$260,625,000.0
$64,950,000.0
60%
$195,345,000.00
Third Alternative
Angel Round
Probability
Value
Venture Capital
Expected Value
Expected Value
Deal = Success
Sepsis
Diabetes
60%
40%
$163,000,000.0
$568,000,000.0
$2,000,000
$2,000,000
$323,000,000.0
Firm Value
VC
Expected Value
Alternative C (Angel round)
$17,500,000
$2,000,000
Probability
Expected Value
Total EV
Ownership
Wtd EV
Deal = Success
75%
$323,000,000.0
$242,250,000.0
90%
$277,487,179.49
60%
$163,000,000
Diabetes
40%
$568,000,000.00
$325,000,000.00
100%
$325,000,000
ected Value
Wait Six Months)
Deal = Failure
25%
$111,022,222.22
Probability
Value
Venture Capital
Expected Value
Expected Value
Deal = Failure
Diabetes Deal 1 year later
Success
Failure
95%
5%
$284,000,000.0
$0.0
$10,000,000
$10,000,000
$259,800,000.0
Probability
Value
Venture Capital
Expected Value
d Value
(Angel round)
Deal = Failure
25%
$267,800,000.0
$66,950,000.0
$277,487,179.49
Expected Value
Deal = Failure
Diabetes Deal 1 year later
Success
Failure
95%
5%
$284,000,000.0
$0.0
$2,000,000
$2,000,000
$267,800,000.0
Purinex,Inc
Decision tree Analysis
Appendix 1
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Wtd. EV
Probability
Value
75%
$325,000,000
A
Firm value
Wtd. Exp. Value
$25,000,000
$271,505,555.56
deal= failure
Probability
WTD EV
Diabetes
Probability
Value
25%
$111,022,222.22
Down roun
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Value
B
Firm Value
Ownership
Wtd. Exp. Value
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$347,500,000.00
deal= failure
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$259,800,000.00
$15,000,000
60%
$195,345,000.00
Diabetes
Probability
Value
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Value
C
Firm Value
Ownership
Wtd. Exp. Value
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$323,000,000.00
Diabetes
Probability
Value
$17,500,000
90%
$277,487,179.49
deal= failure
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$267,800,000.00
60%
$163,000,000
Diabetes-deal
40%
$568,000,000
Down round
VC round
VC
value
Probability
Value
95%
$284,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000diabetes- no deal
Probability
Value
5%
0
60%
$179,300,000
Diabetes-deal
40%
$624,800,000
Probability
Value
95%
$284,000,000
diabetes- no deal
Probability
Value
5%
0
60%
$163,000,000
Diabetes-deal
40%
$568,000,000
Probability
Value
diabetes- no deal
Probability
Value
95%
$284,000,000
5%
0
Purinex,Inc
Decision tree Analysis
Appendix 1
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$325,000,000
$25,000,000
$271,505,555.56
Diabetes
Probability
Value
A
Firm value
Wtd. Exp. Value
Probability
Value
deal= failure
Probability
WTD EV
25%
$111,022,222.22
Down round
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Value
B
Firm Value
Ownership
$15,000,000
60%
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$347,500,000.00
Diabetes
Probability
Value
$195,345,000.00
deal= failure
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$259,800,000.00
Sepsis
deal= success
Probability
Value
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$323,000,000.00
Diabetes
Firm Value
Ownership
Wtd. Exp. Value
$17,500,000
90%
$277,487,179.49
Probability
Value
deal= failure
Probability
Wtd. EV
75%
$267,800,000.00
Sepsis
60%
$163,000,000
Diabetes-deal
Diabetes
40%
$568,000,000
Down round
VC round
VC
value
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
Probability
Value
95%
$284,000,000
diabetes- no deal
Probability
Value
5%
0
60%
$179,300,000
Diabetes
40%
$624,800,000
Diabetes-deal
Probability
95%
Value
$284,000,000
diabetes- no deal
Sepsis
Probability
Value
5%
0
60%
$163,000,000
Diabetes-deal
Diabetes
40%
$568,000,000
Probability
Value
diabetes- no deal
Probability
Value
95%
$284,000,000
5%
0