American Airlines Group

Fundamental
(Information derived from financial statements below and outside sources):
1. Does not hedge fuel costs.
2. $2.5 billion in tailwinds expected in 2015.
3. $6 million saved in aircraft fuel and related taxes from the 6 months ended June
30, 2013 to the 6 months ended June 30, 2014.
4. $22 million saved in regional expenses (fuel) from the 6 months ended June 30,
2013 to the 6 months ended June 30, 2014.
5. Average fuel price with taxes decreased from $3.06 per gallon to $3.02 per gallon
from the 6 months ended June 30, 2014 to the 3 months ended June 30, 2014.

Technical:

As you can see between Nov. 10-17, the 30-day moving average diverges from
the 60-day and 90-day moving averages. This divergence means that the 60-day
and 90-day moving averages should follow the 30-days movement over the
following months. In other words, AALs price should level at higher 60-day and
90-day moving averages in the coming months.

 A potential price target for the next 2 months is $51.11 (assuming the 60-day and
90-day moving averages converge to the 30-day moving average).

CORN (ETF)
Fundamental
(Information derived from USDA projections below and outside sources):

Corn supplies in the market may drop due an increase in railway transportation
costs ($1-$1.40 per bushel) and to a jam in railway transportation resulting from a
bumper crop and a crude oil glut last year (2014). The best indicator of this
situation is the performance of railway transportation companies in 2014:
Canadian Pacific Railways stock appreciated about 28% in 2014.
CSX Corporations stock appreciated 28% in 2014.
Norfolk Southern Corporations stock appreciated about 19% in 2014.

Corn for ethanol production is expected to increase by 16 million bushels.

Total corn usage is expected to increase by 124 million bushels.
Corn demand per day is expected to increase by 400,000 bushels.
The increased corn supply in the market will incentivize farmers to store corn on
farm and in elevators, which will likely drive a premium in the market until late
February or early March, when corn is generally liquidated to pay for spring
planting. Also, the increased grains supply in the market has driven commercial
storage space rents higher.
Corn prices will slightly increase over the course of 2015, as a 16 million ton
YOY increase in US production balances out a combined production cutback of 8
percent from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. This will result in an 8 percent drop

in corn production, to 21 million tons. The base case outlook projects a 1 % (10
million ton) YOY increase in global corn use.
Goldman projects Corn prices at 3.75 cents/bushel at the end of 2015, up from 3
cents/bushel at the end of 2014.

Technical:

Similar to AAL, CORNs 30-day moving average indicates a higher price than the
60-day and 90-day moving averages. An expected price for the next 2 months is
$26.80.