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Tutorial 1

1.

The compact discs from a certain supplier are analyzed for scratch and
shock resistance. The results from 100 discs tested are summarized as
follows:
Scratch
Resistance
Hig
Low
h
30
10
22
8

High
Shock
Mediu
Resistanc
m
e
Low
25
5
Let A denote the event that a disc has high shock resistance, and B
denote the event that a disc has high scratch resistance. If sample is
selected at random, determine the following probabilities:
i. P(A)
ii. P(B)
iii. P(B)
iv. (AUB) v.
P(A B)
vi. P(AUB) vii. P ( A B )
viii. P ( B A)
Solution:
i. 0.4
ii. 0.77
iii. 0.23
iv. 0.87
v. 0.3
vi. 0.53
vii. 0.39
viii. 0.75
2.

A box contains 3 black and 4 while balls. Two balls are drawn at
random one at a time
without replacement.
i.
What is the probability that a second ball drawn is black?
ii.
What is the conditional probability that first ball drawn is black if
the second ball is known to be black?
Solution: (Use tree diagram)
i.
3/7
ii.
1/3
3. In a group of 22 players of Harimau Muda team, only 7 of them are
totally fit for the Asian game tournament and every person of the
remaining 15 players has either knee injury or flue fever or both.
However 8 of the players have knee injuries and 10 have flu fever. Let
A be the event of knee injuries and B be the event of flu fever. If one of
them selected randomly from this group, what is the probability that he
has
i.
both, knee injury and high flu fever?
ii.
knee injury only?
iii.
flu fever only?

iv.
not either knee injury or flu fever?
Solution: (Use Venn diagram)
i.
3/22
ii.
5/22
iii.
7/22
iv.
7/22
4.

An agricultural research establishment grows vegetables and grades


each one as either good or bad for taste, good or bad for its size, and
good or bad for its appearance. Overall, 78% of the vegetables have a
good taste. However, only 69% of the vegetables have both a good
taste and a good size. Also, 5% of the vegetables have a good taste
and a good appearance, but a bad size. Finally, 84% of the vegetables
have either a good size or a good appearance.
i.
If a vegetable has a good taste, what is the probability that it
also has a good size?
ii.
If a vegetable has a bad size and a bad appearance, what is the
probability that it has a good taste?
Solution: (Use Venn diagram)
i.
0.89
ii.
0.25

5.

Three machines M1, M2 and M3 produce identical items of their


respective output 5%, 4% and 3% of the items are faulty. On a
certain day, M1 has produced 25%, M2 has produced 30% and M3 has
produced 45% of the total output. An item selected at random is found
to be faulty. What are the chances that it was produced by M3?
Solution: (Use tree diagram)
P(M3 given F) = 0.36

6.

Suppose that a test for Influenza A, H1N1 disease has a very high
success rate: if a tested patient has the disease, the test accurately
reports this, a positive, 99% of the time, and if a tested patient does
not have the disease, the test accurately reports that, a negative,
95% of the time. Suppose also, however, that only 0.1% of the
population have that disease.
i.
What is the probability that the test returns a positive result?
ii.
If the patient has a positive, what is the probability that he has
the disease?
iii.
What is the probability of a false positive?
Solution: (Use tree diagram)
Let D be the event that the patient has the disease, and E is the event
that the test returns a positive result.

i.
ii.
iii.

P(E) = 0.05094
P(D given E) = 0.019
P( False positive) = 1 P(D given E) = 0.981
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