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Article history:
Received 29 July 2008
Received in revised form
23 January 2009
Accepted 22 March 2009
Available online 9 May 2009
Predicting tunnel boring machine (TBM) performance is a crucial issue for the accomplishment of a
mechanical tunnel project, excavating via full face tunneling machine. Many models and equations have
previously been introduced to estimate TBM performance based on properties of both rock and machine
employing various statistical analysis techniques. However, considering the nature of the problem, it is
relatively difcult to estimate tunnel boring machine performance by linear prediction models. Articial
neural networks (ANNs) and non-linear multiple regression models have great potential for establishing
such prediction models. The purpose of the present study is the construction of non-linear multivariable
prediction models to estimate TBM performance as a function of rock properties. For this purpose, rock
properties and machine data were collected from recently completed TBM tunnel project in the City of
New York, USA and consequently the database was established to develop performance prediction
models utilizing the ANN and the non-linear multiple regression methods. This paper presents the
results of study into the application of the non-linear prediction approaches providing the acceptable
precise performance estimations.
& 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Articial neural networks
Non-linear multiple regression
Rock properties
TBM prognosis
Tunneling
1. Introduction
Non-linear and complex problems are encountered frequently
during the application of geotechnical projects. One of these
complex problems is the prediction of tunnel boring machine
(TBM) performance. Various performance estimation models have
been used for the selection and the optimization of tunnel boring
machines and excavators since the rst mechanical tunnel project
was constructed. Estimation of machine performance for any type
of mechanical excavators can be employed to reduce the risks
related to high capital costs typical to excavation operations.
Predicting the TBM performance requires the estimation of the
rate of penetration (ROP), the ratio of excavated distance to the
operating time during continuous excavation phase, and advance
rate (AR), the ratio of both mined and supported actual distance to
the total time. In fact, most of the TBM performance prediction
models deal with estimating the rate of penetration. The
performance analysis of the machines and the development of
precise prediction models have been the ultimate goal and are still
under development for many researchers (Tarkoy, 1975; Ozdemir,
Corresponding author.
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Fig. 2. Distribution of rock types along the tunnel based on the eld study (Yagiz,
2002; Merguerian and Ozdemir, 2003).
Table 1
Basic descriptive statistics for the established dataseta.
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Median
Standard
deviation
Variance
a
UCS
BTS
DPW
Alpha
(MPa)
BI
(brittleness)
(kN/mm)
(MPa)
Measured
(ROP)
(m/h)
(m)
(deg)
199.7
118.3
150.1
142.1
22.2
11.4
6.7
9.5
9.8
0.9
58.0
24.9
34.6
31.2
8.5
2.00
0.05
1.02
0.80
0.64
89.0
2.0
44.7
45.0
23.3
3.07
1.27
2.04
2.03
0.36
492.4
0.8
71.5
0.42
541.9
0.13
Fig. 1. The location map of the constructed tunnel (no. 3, stage 2 from shaft 16b to
19B, not-to-scale).
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Table 2
Correlation coefcients of the simple regressions between the ROP and the
independent variables (number of data: 151).
UCS
BTS
BI
DPW
a
a
Linear
Power
Logarithmic
Exponential
0.26
0.09
0.58a
0.47a
0.22
0.23
0.09
0.55a
0.44a
0.40a
0.25
0.10
0.58a
0.44a
0.35
0.24
0.09
0.55a
0.46a
0.26
Table 3
Correlation coefcients of the relations among the independent variables.
UCS
BTS
BI
DPW
a angle
UCS
BTS
BI
DPW
a angle
1.000
0.280
1.000
0.630
0.121
1.000
0.116
0.113
0.154
1.000
0.089
0.023
0.193
0.026
1.000
(1)
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Table 4
Non-linear multivariable regression equations obtained from the randomly selected model development datasets.
Dataset
Regression equation
0.82
0.81
0.82
0.80
0.82
(2)
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(3)
Table 6
Total rank values of the models obtained from ve randomly selected datasets.
Method
Model
Total rank
ANN
1
2
3
4
5
25
15
20
22
14
NLMR
1
2
3
4
5
23
22
24
21
18
Table 5
Prediction performance indices of each model and their rank values.
Method
Model
RMSE
VAF
Rating for r
Rank value
ANN
Train
Train
Train
Train
Train
0.066
0.074
0.064
0.074
0.071
89.234
85.541
89.650
86.090
87.573
0.95
0.93
0.95
0.93
0.94
4
2
5
2
3
4
1
5
2
3
5
3
5
3
4
13
6
15
7
10
0.104
0.150
0.177
0.080
0.178
69.188
50.352
14.105
86.640
16.924
0.85
0.77
0.64
0.93
0.66
4
3
2
5
1
4
3
1
5
2
4
3
2
5
1
12
9
5
15
4
0.116
0.115
0.114
0.168
0.115
66.850
64.980
67.650
34.910
67.100
0.82
0.81
0.82
0.80
0.82
3
4
5
2
4
3
2
5
1
4
5
4
5
3
5
11
10
15
6
13
0.115
0.120
0.119
0.115
0.121
63.050
66.620
61.500
71.420
59.100
0.81
0.85
0.79
0.85
0.77
5
3
4
5
2
3
4
2
5
1
4
5
3
5
2
12
12
9
15
5
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
NLMR
1
2
3
4
5
Train
Train
Train
Train
Train
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
RMSE: root mean square error; VAF: values account for; r: coefcient of cross-correlation.
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Fig. 4. (a) Cross-correlation graph of the ANN model using dataset 1; (b) Crosscorrelation graph of the non-linear multivariable regression model using dataset 3.
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Saffet Yagiz was born on April 1, 1969, in Kirikkale, Turkey. He received his B.Sc.
degree from the Geological Engineering Department of Ankara University in 1992,
Turkey. He received his M.Sc. degree from the Geological Engineering Department
of Missouri Technical University in 1997, and then his Ph.D. degree in 2002, from
the Mining and Earth Systems Engineering Department of Colorado School of
Mines in the USA. He is currently assistant professor in the Applied Geology
Division of Geological Engineering Department of Pamukkale University. His
research interests are the interaction of tunnel boring machines and rock mass,
engineering rock mechanics, tunnel geology and excavation.
Candan Gokceoglu was born on July 25, 1966, in Ardahan, Turkey. He received his
B.Sc. degree from the Hydrogeological Engineering Department of Hacettepe
University in 1989. He received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees from the Geological
Engineering Department of the same university in 1993 and 1997, respectively. He
is currently an associate professor in the Applied Geology Division of Geological
Engineering Department of Hacettepe University. He is Vice President of Turkish
Fuzzy System Association. His areas of interest are landslides, rock mechanics and
fuzzy system applications.
Ebru Sezer was born on December 25, 1974, in Ankara, Turkey. She received her
B.Sc. degree from the Computer Engineering Department of Hacettepe University
in 1996. She received her M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees from the Computer Engineering
Department of the same university in 1999 and 2006, respectively. She is currently
associated lecturer in the Computer Engineering Department of Hacettepe
University. Her areas of interest are semantic web technologies and fuzzy system
applications.
Serdar Iplikci was born on June 14, 1970, in Denizli, Turkey. He received his B.Sc.
degree from the Electronics and Communication Engineering Department of
Technical University of Istanbul in 1991. He received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees
from the Systems and Control Engineering Department and the Electrical and
Electronics Engineering Department of the Bogazici University in 1999 and 2002,
respectively. He is currently an associate professor in the Control Division of
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Department of Pamukkale University. His
areas of interest are machine learning, intelligent control and nonlinear dynamics.