LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

Neglected farmers in developing countries

by:
Dwi Andreas Santosa
IPB
International NGO Forum on Indonesian Development 15th Conference,
Jakarta, October 27 – 28, 2008

LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL

NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE
CHANGE

Neglected farmers in developing

countries
Dwi Andreas Santosa
Department of Soil and Land Resources
Faculty of Agriculture
Bogor Agricultural University
Jl. Meranti, Kampus IPB Darmaga, BOGOR
E-mail: dsantosa@indo.net.id
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CARBON EMISSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change: product of capitalist and techno-scientific
socio-economic systems (Holloway, 1999)

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 WHAT THE NEGOTIATIONS FOR?

Lowering overall cost “Cap and Trade System”

5.2% below 1990, 2008-2012

0%
7% 8%
6%

8%

Overall Green House Purchase Credits from CDM

Gasses Emission projects in non-Annex I
Reduction Countries
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CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS

Negara Non-Annex I (negara Negara Annex I (negara industri),

berkembang), lokasi kegiatan proyek pembeli CER atau pemberi bantuan

CERs

Bantuan implementasi
proyek

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 THE NEGOTIATIONS
• US vocally against effective action on
climate change
– Reliance upon fossil fuel for its economy
• Europe: calling for stronger action
– More incentive to reduce dependency on
fossil fuel
• Developing countries?
– Concerned about their right to develop, to use
their resources, and seeking social justice and
equity 5
 BUSINESS INTERESTS
• “The Kyoto Protocol has been corrupted in
order to give TNCs – the main culprits
behind accelerating climate change – a
privileged status as implementers of the
market based “solution” (Green House
Market Mania, 2000)
• Strong push by big business lobbies and
related interests when environmental
regulation is attempted
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 POLICY STRATEGY
• Global Issues, February 14, 2007
– Step 1 Deny it: A lot of skepticisms initially
from US-based scientist
– Step 2 Fight it: “blame someone else for it”
– Step 3 Dilute it: extremely heavy concessions
on steps and measures to take
– Step 4 Delay it: delaying effective action or
attempting to derail effective action
– Step 5 and 6 Do it and market it: to ensure
they doesn’t lose its position of power 7
 CONVENTION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE
• All parties must formulate and implement
national or regional programs containing
measures to facilitate adequate adaptation
to climate change (Art. 4.1b)
• Abnormal changes in air temperature and
rainfall, increases in frequency and
intensity of drought and flood events
– Changes in spatial distribution of agro-
ecological zones, habitats, distribution pattern
of plant diseases and pests
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 CLIMATE CHANGE AND
AGRICULTURE
• Impact of climate change on agriculture, primary effects
– Plant productivity (warmer temperature, higher CO2
concentration)
– Plant heat stress
– Crop yields
– Geographical shifts in vegetation
– Introduction of new crops
– Crop-management change in response to climatic change
• Secondary effects
– Changes in land prices
– Changes in fertilizer use
• Have most significant impacts on small-scale farmers

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 DEVELOPING VS DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES
• The agricultural GDP in developed
countries would likely benefit from climate
change
• Developing countries would face decrease
of GDP in agriculture (Asia -4% and Africa
-2 to -9%, FAO, 2007)

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 FOOD PRODUCTION 2025
Population Consumption/ Demand Production Balance
Region 2025 Capita 2025 2025 2025
South Asia 2021 237 549.7 524.6 -25.1
East and
Southeast Asia 2387 338 1040.9 914.0 -126.9
Latin America 690 265 217.9 171.2 -46.7
Europe 799 634 506.5 619.4 112.9
North America 410 780 319.5 558.2 238.7
World 8039 363 3046.5 2977.7 -68.8

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 LAND AVAILABILITY FOR FOOD
Land for Food Population Land/
Country
(1000 ha) (2002) Capita (m2)
Argentina 33.700 37.074 9089.9
Australia 50.304 19.153 26264.3
Bangladesh 8.085 123.406 655.2
Brazil 58.865 171.796 3426.4
Canada 45.740 30.769 14865.6
China 143.625 1282.172 1120.2
India 161.750 1016.938 1590.6
Indonesia 1) 7.780 217.000 358.5
Thailand 31.839 60.925 5225.9
USA 175.209 285.003 6147.6
Vietnam 7.500 78.137 959.9
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Indonesia 2) 9.788 217.000 451.1
 INDONESIAN FARMERS
• 48 Percent of total population
– Land 0.36 hectare
– Most of them have less than 0.25 hectare
and no-land farmers
• Depends on seed, technologies
(fertilizers, pesticides etc), credit,
international trade
• Limit access on resources and
information (including global warming)
• No capability to adapt to climate change13
 WHAT WE CAN DO?
• Large reduction in adverse impacts from climate change
are possible when adaption is fully implemented
• “Major class of adaptations” (Reilly and
Schimmelpfennig, 1999)
– Seasonal changes and sowing dates
– Different variety or species
– Water supply and irrigation system
– Other inputs (fertilizers, tillage methods, soil
management etc)
– New crop varieties
– Forest fire management, agro-forestry (FAO, 2005)
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 CAPACITY BUILDING OF
FARMERS
• Need to build their resilience to cope with
climatic fluctuations
• Livelihood-based approach (FAO, 2007)
– Promote climate change adaptation process
at grass root level
– Small-scale farmers work on the basis of day-
to-day priorities rather than for longer-term
• Understanding current livelihood systems,
indigenous knowledge, adaptive capacity,
vulnerability
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THANK YOU

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