Climatic Change (2010) 100:633644

DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9677-0

The 2007 dry spell in Luzon (Philippines): its cause,

impact and corresponding response measures
Graciano P. Yumul, Jr. Nathaniel A. Cruz
Carla B. Dimalanta Nathaniel T. Servando
Flaviana D. Hilario

Received: 22 February 2008 / Accepted: 28 July 2009 / Published online: 10 October 2009
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009

Abstract Climate change, involving both human-induced global warming and natural climate variability, has been called upon to explain the occurrences of weather
extremes with their associated natural hazards. The Philippines experienced a dry
spell in 2007 specifically in parts of Luzon which occurred during the rainy season.
On the other hand, areas in Mindanao, southern Philippines which were supposed
to be dry, were wet due to the non-migration of the inter-tropical convergence
zone northward. The 2007 dry spell in Luzon, northern Philippines affected the
agricultural, power, water and health sectors. The local effects of this weather
extreme have to be documented and studied to ensure that the appropriate response
measures are adopted should there be a recurrence. The building up of the database
on this weather extreme and related natural hazards will definitely help the country
cope with future similar events.
1 Introduction
The year 2007 saw the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) come
out with their assessment reports. The first report highlighted the science part,
of which one of the conclusions is that the increase in the greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere is anthropogenic (e.g. Karl and Trenberth 2003; Barnett et al. 2005;

G. P. Yumul, Jr.
Department of Science and Technology, Taguig City, Metro Manila, Philippines
G. P. Yumul, Jr. (B) C. B. Dimalanta
National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines,
Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
e-mail: gpyumul@dost.gov.ph, rwg@i-next.net
N. A. Cruz N. T. Servando F. D. Hilario
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
AdministrationDepartment of Science and Technology, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

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IPCC 2007a; Schar et al. 2007). This was primarily associated with energy use,
agricultural activities and, to a certain extent, urbanization and land use changes
(e.g. Ferguson and Beltrami 2006; Andersson et al. 2009). With this scenario, as
supported by global climate models and numerous published documents, the IPCC
has reported possible things that can occur on earth if nothing is done about climate
change, specifically human-induced global warming. Aside from reported changes
among the known weather extremes and climate variabilities with their associated
natural hazards (e.g. tropical cyclones, heatwaves, droughts, floods, El Nio Southern
Oscillation- and North Atlantic Oscillation-related extreme climate conditions), the
level of uncertainty related to these extremes has also been enhanced (e.g. Beniston
and Diaz 2004; Helmer and Hilhorst 2006; Anthes et al. 2006; Calanca 2007; Zhang
et al. 2007; Gergis and Fowler 2009; Helama et al. 2009). Although following different
lines of thought, the need to address these issues led to the forwarding of measures
that can lessen, if not totally eliminate, the adverse impact of climate change (Hansen
et al. 2005; Pielke et al. 2005; IPCC 2007b, c). These reports can be summarized as
follows: (a) technology is available to minimize the adverse effects of climate change
with the appropriate resources and finances to be spent, which is small, compared
to what can happen if nothing is done; (b) that everybody has to take ownership
of the issue, in the process, doing their share to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
among other activities; and (c) changing lifestyle to reflect climate change realities
(Brown et al. 2007; Yohe et al. 2008; Elzen and Hhne 2008). Archipelagic nations
are bound to be more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and
its associated weather extremes and natural hazards (e.g. sea level rise, increasing
temperature, resurgence of infectious diseases; anomalous precipitation) (e.g.
Emanuel 2005; Ueda and Hori 2006; Meheux et al. 2007; Yusuf and Francisco 2009;
Tseng et al. 2009).
The Philippines, with its unique geographic setting and being susceptible to a
lot of geological, meteorological and climatological hazards, has to look in depth
into the local scenario vis--vis the global and regional setting in terms of climate
change. This is important, if the Philippines is to reduce, if not totally eliminate,
the adverse impacts of climate change. As noted, what may be happening in one
part of the region (e.g. Southeast Asia), which is perceived to be related to humaninduced global warming, may not necessarily be happening in the country. It is in this
context that recording, characterizing, and analyzing any anomalous meteorological
and climatological event that transpires in the country is important. Aside from
understanding the natural hazard and its related impacts, the appropriate response
can be learned and improved resulting in the saving of lives and minimization of
property loss. In this paper, we present in Section 2 the weather-related events
that affected the country in 2006. A common denominator of these events is the
prevalence of water that resulted into flooding and landslides. The government, as
a result, put up plans and programs that were supposed to address the occurrence
of these water-induced hazards. Unfortunately, as shown in Section 3, the following
year was characterized by a dry spell. Characterization of the 2007 dry spell, the
factors that caused it, its related impacts and the measures implemented to respond
to this weather-related event are presented in this section. The 2007 dry spell is
anomalous in that droughts in the country are associated with El Nio events. The
2007 dry spell occurred during the rainy season. The major shift from too much water
(2006 setting) to a water-scarce (2007 situation) environment in a span of almost

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2 years had tested the resiliency of the country in dealing with extreme weather
events. The section on the discussion centered on what remedial measures were done
to address the dry spell. It is hoped that with this information, occurrence of future
dry spells can be predicted and, as a result, preparedness measures can be put in place
at once. This set of information forms part of the disaster management database of
the Philippines which ultimately can help the country in addressing climate change.
We hope that this can be useful in other places that would be similarly situated
vis--vis the Philippines.
2 2006 Meteorological events in the Philippines
Some of the meteorologicalclimatological events in 2006 were anomalous and are
deemed important to be understood if the occurrence of the 2007 dry spell in the
country is to be fully appreciated. The Philippines is so exposed to multiple hydrometeorological hazards that a substantial portion of its annual national budget is
spent in the repair and rehabilitation of devastated communities. Although the
resiliency of both the community and individuals with respect to these multiple
natural hazards are very high, the vulnerability to these hazards is taking its toll.
Development plans and programs are not fully implemented or are not put to
completion due to the depletion of resources and substantial time the community
has to spend to respond and even prepare for these hazards.
The major events in 2006 include: (a) A La Nia during late 2005 to first quarter
of 2006; (b) Occurrence of two tropical cyclones inside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility in August; and (c) An El Nio event that started in the last quarter
of 2006 and persisted until the first quarter of 2007 (Yumul et al. 2008). What
made these events anomalous and what hazards and risks resulted from them? The
2006 La Nia event started late. Instead of developing in the latter part of 2005
and having its waning stage in the early part of 2006, the 2006 La Nia started in
January 2006. This was not a full blown La Nia since its duration was less than
five consecutive months (World Meteorological Organization 2006). As such, the
Philippines during the months of January to March 2006 was characterized by heavy
rains especially along its eastern seaboard. This resulted in a lot of flooding, mass
wasting and the February 2006 Guinsaugon landslide in Southern Leyte that caused
the burying of one village and almost 900 deaths (Fig. 1). In August 2006, two tropical
cyclones, tropical depression Inday (international name Bopha) and tropical storm
Juan (international name Saomai), were in the Philippine Sea inside the Philippine
Area of Responsibility. The last time this type of occurrence happened was in 1990.
With two tropical cyclones inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it enhanced
the southwest monsoon resulting in heavy rains, high waves and strong winds at
sea along the western seaboard. This led to flooding and landslides in the Visayas
and Mindanao. During the peak of the southwest monsoon, an oil carrier, the M/T
Solar 1, sank that led to the worst oil spill in the country (Fig. 2). The last quarter of
2006 saw the development of an El Nio event. El Nio events in the Philippines are
usually associated with less rain and a relatively dry condition (Lyon and Camargo
2009). However, this El Nio was a very wet one for the Philippines. Three super
typhoons (>215 kph), Paeng (international name Cimaron), Queenie (international
name Chebi), and Reming (international name Durian), made landfall in the country

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Fig. 1 a Guinsaugon (white dot) is situated in Southern Leyte which is bisected by the trace of the
Philippine Fault Zone (white dashed line). b The trace of the segment of the Philippine Fault Zone
(white dashed line) that traverses Leyte Island is evident in Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte as seen from
this photo taken in April 2003. c A huge portion of the mountain cascaded downward and buried a
barrio which claimed almost 900 lives. Inset shows the location of Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte
(boxed area). Photos by C.B. Dimalanta and N.A. Cruz

Fig. 2 Index map shows the location of the Guimaras island (boxed area) (source: Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data from the United States Geological Survey EROS Data
Center 2007). Envisat image using an Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) taken on
August 25, 2006 showing the extent of the oil spill from the sunken M/T Solar 1 vessel (image from
European Space Agency 2007, http://earth.esa.int)

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Fig. 3 a A cargo van rests on top of the roof of a house in Bicol after the onslaught of Reming
(international name Durian) which caused the remobilization of lahar deposits on the slopes
of Mayon Volcano. b Sections of some roads in the Bicol region show scouring caused by the
lahars. Inset shows the tracklines of the three supertyphoons which entered the Philippine Area of
Responsibility during the last quarter of the year. Photos by G.P. Yumul Jr

during the period October to December 2006. This resulted to tremendous loss of
lives and destruction of property specifically during the passage of super typhoon
Reming (Fig. 3). The wet condition in an El Nio setting continued up to the first
quarter of 2007. With the unusually wet condition that prevailed in 2006, most of the
plans and programs put up by both the national and local government units are in
congruence with an anticipated wet 2007 setting. Thus, the 2007 dry spell, occurring
during the rainy season, saw most of the people less prepared during its onset.

3 2007 Dry spell and wet spell events: causes and impacts
The 20062007 El Nio event started to diminish during the month of March 2007,
followed by a transition period and ultimately La Nia begun to develop in August
2007 (Climate Prediction CenterNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
2007). In May 2007, with the southwest monsoon being the dominant system for
Luzon and the Visayas, the start of the rainy season was declared in the Philippines.
This was arrived at following the criteria set by the national meteorological agency
(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Department of Science and Technology [PAGASADOST]) of the Philippines. The
criteria would include five stations along the western seaboard receiving 25 mm of
total rainfall for five consecutive days with 3 days of continuous rains. Furthermore,
the prevailing wind should be southwest.

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However, during the first week of June, there was a monsoon break which
unusually persisted for several weeks that resulted in a 2 month dry spell in Luzon.
Following the PAGASADOST standard, an area is experiencing or susceptible
to a dry spell if the rain is less than 40% and 80%, respectively, with respect to
the climatological normal (Fig. 4). For purposes of discussion in this paper, areas
that have less than 80% rain for two consecutive months are considered to have
undergone a dry spell. The 2007 dry spell which occurred mostly in Luzon happened
during the supposed peak of the rainy season or the southwest monsoon season,
which is anomalous. Although there is no demonstrable correlation between Luzon
rainfall and local sea surface temperature (SST), the SST in June and July, which is
normally rainy season in northern Philippines, (SST based on data from the National
Center for Environmental Prediction) was relatively warm which could have induced
convection and produced more rain (Jose et al. 2000). Higher SST, at a first order of
approximation, has been associated with higher prevalence of tropical cyclones and
voluminous precipitation (Yang and Lau 1998; Emanuel 2003; Webster et al. 2005;
Trenberth and Shea 2006; Mann and Emanuel 2006; Vecchi and Soden 2007). In spite
of this, why did the dry spell happen?
The period from June to the first week of August 2007 was characterized by the
presence of a high pressure ridge whose axis is directly extending across central
and northern Luzon (Fig. 5). Previous observational studies (e.g. Asuncion 1973),
indicate that during this period the mean position of the high pressure ridge is
relatively displaced eastward and north of Luzon. The presence of the high pressure
ridge, which is associated with good weather, resulted in: (a) the suppression of tropical cyclone formation in the Philippine Sea (Fig. 5); (b) weak southwest monsoon
activity; and (c) the non-migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ)

Fig. 4 In June 2007, areas in Luzon specifically in the western side received less than 80% of
rainfall with respect to the climatological normal. Nearly the entire Luzon island received less than
80% of rainfall as of July 2007 making it susceptible to a dry spell. Northern Luzon, with less than
40% of rainfall, was experiencing a dry spell based on the DOST-PAGASA standard. By August
2007, some areas in Northern Luzon started receiving >120% rainfall and a large part of Luzon
received between 80120% rainfall with respect to the climatological normal. Curved lines represent
provincial boundaries (Source: Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch, DOST-PAGASA 2007)

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Fig. 5 Left Map showing the ridge of high pressure area in the Philippine Sea from June to the first
week of August 2007. This is believed to have been responsible for the dry spell in Luzon and the
unusual wet spell in Mindanao during this time of the year. Solid lines correspond to mean height
of high pressure in meters (modified from NOAA). Area enclosed in broken line is the Philippine
Area of Responsibility. Inset shows the areas (e.g. Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cordillera
Administrative Region [CAR] and Laguna) which were hardest hit by the absence of rains

from Mindanao through Visayas to Luzon. During normal periods, the ITCZ in the
months of June and July should be hovering over Luzon and the Visayas which did
not happen in 2007. The ITCZ persisted over Mindanao resulting in flooding. All
of the above resulted in the abnormally low rainfall in Luzon and some parts of
Visayas and the wet spell in Mindanao. In Luzon, several provinces (e.g. Isabela,
Ilocos Norte and Sur, Laguna and the Cordillera Administrative Region) declared
states of calamity because of the absence of rain (Fig. 5). The planting season was
disrupted. Almost all dams (e.g. Binga, Ambuklao, Pantabangan, Magat, San Roque,
Angat) experienced lower water levels (Fig. 6). This threatened the water supply
to the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors in Luzon. Hydroelectric plants
were not operated because of the lack of water opening the possibility of power
shortages. Health concerns involving humans (e.g. viral conjunctivitis) and animals
(e.g. hog cholera) were prevalently reported by the local government units (LGUs),
the Philippine Department of Health (DOH) and Department of Agriculture (DA).
The doctors from the LGUs and DOH and the DA veterinarians attributed these
health concerns to the dry spell. Rain-fed paddies suffered due to the non-arrival
of rain and some were not planted at all. Rice and corn production drastically went
down. Of the total 1,299,692 ha of areas planted, 205,915 ha were affected as reported
by the DA by end-July 2007. The volume of production loss was 357,855 metric tons,
of which rice loss was 112,806 metric tons (76,222 metric tons from rain-fed fields
and 36,584 metric tons from irrigated systems) and corn loss was 245,049 metric tons
(Office of Civil Defense [OCD] 2007). On the other hand, in Mindanao, June and
July are normally dry months. These are the months when corn is planted as it would
not need much water. However, since the ITCZ did not leave Mindanao while Luzon
was suffering a dry spell, it resulted into a wet spell in Mindanao. Aside from affecting
agricultural production, flooding and mass wasting (e.g. landslides) were frequent
occurrences during the wet spell in Mindanao.

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Fig. 6 Left Map showing the location of the dams in Luzon which experienced low water levels
between the months of June to August 2007. Right Hydrograph for Angat shows that as of July 26,
2007, the reservoir water level was way below the flood season high water level. AMSL = above
mean sea level. (Source: Flood Forecasting Branch, DOST-PAGASA)

4 Discussion
Normally, summer in the Philippines starts in March, peaks in April with the latter
part of May characterized by rain. June would see the onset of the rainy season.
During the month of May 2007, the southwest monsoon started to bring rains to the
country. Then all of a sudden, the rain stopped in June 2007. The power and water
sectors, especially involving the hydroelectric plants and dam operations, noted the
drastic lowering in water level among the dams in Luzon. With the presence of the
high pressure ridge and with a weakened southwest monsoon, the PAGASADOST
by early July presented to the Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council
(NDCC) the possibility that the country might be hit by a drought. The NDCC is a
cabinet-level, policy-making body made up of secretaries (ministers) and chaired by
the President of the Republic of the Philippines. With the information presented
to the President and the cabinet, instructions were given by the President to the
different departments to lessen the negative impact of the purported drought that
may hit the country.
As stated, with the June to July 2007 dry spell in the Philippines, the agricultural, power, and water sectors were adversely affected. The volume of agricultural
production loss was substantial since the planting schedule was disrupted. In order
to address and reduce the negative impacts of the dry spell to agriculture, the DA
instituted several stopgap measures amounting to almost US$6.0 million. Quick turn
around, certified rice and corn seeds for the next planting season were distributed
to the farmers by July 2007. Fertilizers were provided to ensure bigger harvest.
Repair of irrigation systems was done to ensure that the limited amount of water
being released by the dams reached the fields. Small water impounding projects were
supported. Shallow tube wells were provided together with small farm tractors, flat
bed driers (in anticipation of sudden rains) and other farm equipment to ensure

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efficient planting operations. For the power sector, the months of June to August
every year see the downtime of all government diesel, oil, coal, natural gas and, to a
certain extent, geothermal power plants for maintenance purposes. This can be done
because the power requirement of the country is taken care of by the hydroelectric
plants since June to August is the rainy season. With the dry spell, no hydroelectric
plant was operated as its turbine might get damaged due to the very low water
level. Instead, the downtime and maintenance of the coal, oil, diesel, natural gas
and geothermal plants were postponed and all of these plants were operated fully.
Additional importation of coal was done to ensure enough supply of fuel. With
the recognition of the dry spell by July and the decision to continue utilizing the
fossil fuel-driven power plants, power outages and blackouts were averted. In terms
of water utilization, limited water rationing was implemented by the Department
of Agriculture, through the Bureau of Soils and Water Management, and the
Department of Environment and Natural Resources, through the National Water
Resources Office, to stretch the amount of water in the different dams of central
to northern Luzon. Domestic use was given priority over industrial and agricultural
usages. Private water concessionaires supported the move. Water conservation was
advocated and practiced. Both the public and private sectors came up with measures
to help in water conservation. Fortunately, when water rationing was to start in
Metropolitan Manila the rains started to fall. During the dry spell, cloud seeding
was also initiated targeting the dams and the rain-fed rice fields. Although still
very controversial in terms of its effectiveness, this weather modification activity is
believed to have helped alleviate the water shortage in Luzon, to a certain extent, as
rains were reported in areas affected by the dry spell. During the dry spell, people
were kept informed of what was happening and what the National Government and
the corresponding local government units were doing to address the problem. The
media was an effective partner in communicating and bringing the news to the public.
The National Disaster Coordinating Council gave daily media briefing regarding
the weather condition, the level of water in the different dams of Luzon and the
different measures taken up by the Government. The daily updates were supplied
by the different departments that were involved in reducing the negative impacts
of the dry spell. The media, in return, ensured that these messages reached and were
understood by the public. This is another event that showed that the disaster response
capacity, capability and protocol of the country involving the public, private and
media sectors work. All of the decisions made and actions taken by each department
were documented to ensure that lessons learned will not be forgotten.
Is this part of human-induced global warming? This is a common question that the
policy makers, media practitioners and the ordinary people asked during the 2007 dry
spell. In the context of the Philippine setting covering the period 1951 to 2006, the
following have been noted: (a) there is an increasing trend of average temperature
in the country; (b) there is no trend in terms of rainfall; and (c) there is also no trend
in terms of tropical cyclone intensity, duration or frequency (e.g. Goldenberg et al.
2001; Emanuel 2005, 2006). Considering the short span of recorded time available in
the country and the ambivalent meteorologicalclimatological data and information,
it is difficult to conclude that the dry spell is directly related to human-induced global
warming. More studies have to be done to determine if there is any dry spell return
period and, if so, if there is a tendency to increase in terms of frequency, duration
and intensity. One significant thing that becomes apparent is the recognition of a

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lag time after an El Nio or a La Nia event ends and the occurrence of weather
extremes that can still be attributed to them (Lyon et al. 2006). As an example, when
the November 2005 to March 2006 La Nia ended which was followed by the 2006
2007 El Nio, a typhoon (Milenyo [international name Xangsane]) hit Metropolitan
Manila bringing it to a standstill. This was followed by three super typhoons. The
occurrence of very strong tropical cyclones in an El Nio setting can actually be an
aftermath, and for that matter, correlatable with the recently ended La Nia event.
The same can be said for the 20062007 El Nio event. When El Nio ended followed
by neutral conditions in April to July 2007, the rainy season set in during the month
of May in the Philippines. Sea surface temperature surrounding the Philippines was
warm and conducive for rain formation. Again, instead of having rains, what Luzon
actually experienced was the presence of a high pressure ridge that resulted in a
dry spell. Whether this dry spell was an aftermath or not of the just ended El Nio
is something to look into. What these events indicate is that the termination of an
El Nio or La Nia event is not similar to switching a light on and off. There may
be related weather extreme events associated with a completed climatological event
which can come out late and occurring within a newly initiated event. Whether this
will be the norm in the future or something that is transient will have to be monitored
and studied.

5 Conclusions
The dry spell that occurred in Luzon, Philippines occurred during the rainy season
and when the sea surface temperature surrounding the country was warm. This
was caused by the presence of a high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard of
northern Luzon. This resulted into fewer tropical cyclones being formed, a weakened
southwest monsoon and the blocking of the northward migration of the ITCZ. The
dry spell could be a lagged event that can be related to the terminated 20062007
El Nio event. Whether this will be the norm or not in the future will have to be
monitored. The early recognition of the dry spell signatures reduced the adverse
impacts related to the agricultural, power, water and health sectors.
Acknowledgements We appreciate the support extended by the Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council, Office of Civil Defense-Department of National Defense, the DOST-Philippine
Council for Industry and Energy Research and Development, Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the various local government units that we have worked with. We are also grateful
for the discussions and help extended by E.O. Cayanan, S.R. Espinueva, R.D. de Guzman and P.D.
Nilo. Comments, suggestions, and questions raised by two anonymous reviewers, which significantly
improved the paper, are also acknowledged with thanks.

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