An Analytical Report on

INDIAN POWER SECTOR: IMPLICATIONS OF THE

CURRENT FUEL CRISIS

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ABSTRACT
India is one of those few countries which are largely self-serving energy centres with minimum
import of power (about 23%). The Power Sector has always played an eminent role in shaping
the economy and has become the backbone of growth in the industrial and manufacturing
sectors. However, even after its massive impact, power sector itself, relies heavily on Thermal
source of production which uses Coal and Natural Gas as its raw material. The recent fuel
supply problems and price escalations have posed a severe challenge before the sector to meet
the exponentially growing demand and fulfil its stated objectives of providing reliable,
affordable and quality power for all by 2012. It will be interesting to see how India counters
these supply side challenges in the thermal fuel sources as it will decide the future shifts in the
operating domain of Power Sector industries. This report focuses on studying the current issues
faced by the Indian Power Sector in respect of the recent fuel crisis and its long term
implications on the power sector industries.
[174 words]

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CONTENTS
Overview. 4
Introduction to Sector. 5
Fuel Resources.6
Current Issues..7
Imported Coal based Projects..8
Projects having letter of assurance (LOA) but inadequate coal supply...8
Projects having coal-blocks in no-go areas..9
Recommendations..10
Conclusion..11
Endnotes.13
Exhibits...14
Exhibit -114
Exhibit 2..14
Exhibit 3..15
Exhibit 4..16
Exhibit 5..16
References..17

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OVERVIEW
A spectre of acute fuel shortage looms large on the Power Sector. About 40,000 MW of
operating and upcoming power capacity would be impacted. These words of Mr. Ashok
Khurana, Director General, Association of Power Producers (comprising seventeen vital power
producing companies of India), aptly sum up the current fuel crisis situation of India. It
canvasses the dual aspects of non-availability as well as the price hike component of the major
fuel sources comprising of coal and natural gas.
The Power sector is one of the critical components of the Indian economy and an important
ingredient needed to ensure stable growth in gross domestic product (GDP). However, the recent
escalations in fuel price accompanied by scanty supplies and frequent impediments in
environmental clearances have stalled its growth. All of this has come at a crunch time when
India is recovering from the inflationary pressures and consistently trying to push up the growth
rate in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. The demand for power has been consistently
rising with the economic expansion, for domestic as well as industrial consumption (Fig. 1).
India has already been found short (Fig. 2) of the demand quantity in terms of power generation
in spite of the increasing number of private players in the industry. These recent adverse
developments have succeeded in adding to the woes. Let us look into the causes and
repercussions of such developments and try to build a hypothesis of how the future stands for the
Power sector industries, through a detailed analysis of this sector in recent times.

Fig. 1 Distribution of Total Power Consumption

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Fig. 2 Demand Availability Gap

INTRODUCTION TO THE SECTOR

Since independence, the power sector has chiefly remained in the hands of central and state
governments. The Electricity Supply Act[1] (1948), made the Central and State Electricity
Boards (SEBs) as the sole licensees of for power generation, transmission and distribution.
However with the growth in population, the demand grew vigorously at an average rate of
12.3%. Consequently the performance of State Electricity Boards started to deteriorate with time
and they began running into huge losses (Exhibit-1). Thus the State allowed private players to
step in by issuing licenses, to bridge the deficit and bring operational efficiencies. Since then,
several major private sector players like TATA Power, Reliance Power, Adani Group, Torrent
Power, etc. have significantly contributed to meeting the demand shortfall (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3 Power Provider Segmentation

In India, the power sector mostly relies on Thermal power plants for demand fulfillment since
coal is in abundance and provides cheap production. Thermal power plants account for nearly
65% of total electricity produced per annum. Hydroelectric power plants, one of the major
renewable sources account for only 22% whereas nuclear energy caters to 3% of demand.
Thermal power itself depends heavily upon the availability of Coal (86%) and natural gas (13%).
Recently, the Private players have also expanded their portfolio in the thermal power division
and have thus become heavily dependent upon the availability of domestic and imported coal.
Apart from these, several industries have come up with their own plants for fulfilling indigenous
energy requirements. Coal (47.1%) and Natural Gas (17%) form a major part of these so called
captive plants[2] also. This captive power capacity supplies one-third of the total industrial
electricity demand and is increasing at a healthy rate of 57% when compared to an average of
41% in the case of public sector capacity. Nuclear power sources are anticipated to attain
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significant onus in power generation in the due course of time but currently and for some years
in future, it will remain in its infancy. In such a scenario, it is not possible for India to run away
from the insecurities of the thermal power plants and hence, a possible solution needs to be
quickly determined.
FUEL RESOURCES
By virtue of its geography, India has been gifted with coal reserves. India holds the sixth largest
reserves of indigenous coal in the world accounting for 6.7% of total global availability. It has
more than 58 billion tonnes of indigenous coal and produces nearly 490 tonnes of hard coking
coal. However, this is insufficient to fulfill the current demand qualitatively as well as
quantitatively (Exhibit2). Indian coal contains a large amount of ash (15% - 45%) and hence
offers a low efficiency of 34%. India imports coal from Indonesia and Australia (around 25% of
total coal demand) which have superior varieties of coal, having high calorific value of
5800kcal/kg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_coal_equivalent). In India, the coal reserves are
mostly found in the states of Orissa, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and
Andhra Pradesh. The production of Coal is largely controlled by Coal India Limited (CIL) with
82 % share in the coal market. This monopoly has failed to keep abreast with the demand for
indigenous coal (Exhibit-3). It has resulted in shifting the supply side dynamics towards import
of coal for the ultra mega-power projects (UMPP) coming up on the east and west coasts.
Natural gas started featuring in production post 1990 era and currently accounts for nearly 13%
of total thermal power production. Currently, India produces 65 bcm (billion cubic metres) of
natural gas. This demanded is expected to escalate to the levels of 120 bcm by year 2030 and the
rate of its use for electricity generation is also expected to increase to 19 bcm per year. The
natural gas reserves in India are mainly confined to the off-shore Mumbai-Cambay basin along
with the recent explorations at the Krishna-Godavari basin. Methane and Shale gas have also
been found to be of fair economic value but their potential reserves still need to be assessed
properly. Besides indigenous gas supply India also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) through
its two importing terminals on the west coast. Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) is also
coming up with a renewable liquefied natural gas (RLNG) terminal to provide uninterrupted gas
supply. Two more import terminals are in the pipeline (Fig. 4).

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Fig. 4 A diagram depicting the contribution of different sources to total power

CURRENT ISSUES
The year 2011 saw an outstanding performance by the Indian power sector. The domain of
conventional power generation had a capacity addition of around 12,160 MW, which, though
below its target, was still the highest recorded for any year so far. The sector also witnessed
increased participation by the private companies who increased their stake to 23% of the total
installed capacity. The high point of the year was the low price discovery in several new Ultra
Mega Power Projects (UMPP) through competitive bidding. Some examples are the Sasan,
Mundra and Krishnapatnam UMPPs whose price was fixed at Rs. 1.19, Rs 2.26 and Rs. 2.33 per
unit respectively. However, in spite of such milestones the outlook for the future is quite
disheartening.
This is caused by an acute fuel crisis which is the result of uncertainty in the supply of domestic
coal, imported coal as well as natural gas. A direct implication is the high escalation of costs
which have made many of the new projects economically infeasible. Projects such as JSW
Energys Ratnagiri and Adani Powers Mundra plant are finding it increasingly prohibitive to
supply power at the committed rate. The problem is further compounded by the financial crunch
being faced by the state run distribution companies. Indeed if the concerns of the power sector
are not immediately addressed, the Governments dream of Power for All By 2012 has very
bleak chances of being fulfilled.

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In the words of Mr. Anil Sardana, managing director of Tata Power Co. Ltd, Indias largest
independent power producer by capacity, The acute shortage of domestic coal in the country
has become a major concern. It has led to apprehensions that the ambitious capacity addition
target of 90-100 gigawatts in the upcoming 12th Five-Year Plan period may not be met and also
cause avoidable stress on assets already built or committed by many private sector players. As
discussed before, coal contributes 55% to Indias Thermal power, and consequently the coal
based projects are the worst affected by escalating fuel costs and supply uncertainties. These
plants can be broadly classified into three categories.
Imported coal based projects: Many power projects are dependent on imported coal which is
of higher grade. Indonesia which is a major source recently introduced a new coal pricing
regulation which has led to increase in the landed price of fuel. The new policy stipulations state
that coal prices be benchmarked against a set of international and domestic indices[3].
Consequently all existing coal contracts would have to be modified. This implies that any long
term contracts based on discounts or flat pricing will no longer be honoured. This will directly
impact about 17000 MW of Indian projects (Exhibit-4). Another major source, Australia is
planning to levy carbon tax[4] which might be followed by other coal exporting countries also.
Projects having letter of assurance (LOA) but inadequate coal supply: Coal India Limited
(CIL), the biggest domestic producer of coal has provided LOAs to some operating projects, but
is yet to sign the fuel supply agreement[5] (FSA). In fact, CIL has not signed any FSAs since
April, 2009. During 2010-11, CIL set a target of 460.5 million tonnes but had a shortfall of
29.18 million tonnes. This has created a lot of discontent in the sector.
CIL is an instrument of the state and should honour its commitment, said Mr. Ashok Khurana,
director-general, APP. The factors behind the domestic supply shortage are mostly exogenous
such as the Naxalite problem in many coal rich states, and as such the prospects of increase in
output in the recent future do not look very encouraging. Some of the affected projects are forced
to operate at low plant load factors ( ratio of active power received by the plant to the total power
transmitted to the plant, also known as PLFs ) of 40-50% due to inadequate coal supply from
CIL, and are sourcing the additional requirement from the open market at high costs (Exhibit-4).

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Projects having coal blocks in no-go areas: The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF)
in an earlier law had classified mines falling in forest zone into GO/NO-GO areas. Accordingly
all activities in no-go mines were prohibited. Many of the newly commissioned UMPPs have
been allocated captive mines in no-go areas and thus are faced with sourcing problems. This also
harms investor sentiment in the long run because of environmental issues. The law has since
been scrapped but the coal mines in no go areas are being released only on a case to case basis.
Recently six such coal mines were cleared (Exhibit-4). However, many such cases are stuck in
the bureaucratic maze.
At this point in time, Coal is by far the dominant fuel for the power sector, with Natural gas
contributing only 13% (about 18,000 MW). Even this source is facing shortages. Gas availability
in the KG D-6 block has dropped from 60 MMSCMD (million metric cubic metres per day) to
45 MMSCMD leading to a crisis for the existing gas-based power stations as well as those under
construction. Short term measures such as diversion of gas supply from non-core sectors to the
priority sectors which include fertilizers and power can only enable gas-based power plants to
operate at around 50-60 per cent PLF. The balance requirement is however, to be supplied by
blending with RLNG (revaporized liquefied natural gas) which is costlier. The state-owned Gas
Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) could provide the plants a lifeline by pooling indigenously
produced gas with RLNG and supplying at an average price rate.
The projects which have been commissioned recently are the hardest hit by the fuel crisis. These
projects were allocated to distributors by a competitive bidding process whose guidelines
stipulated that only certain costs could be passed on to the end user. The levellised tariff which
was quoted consisted of fixed and variable components, and only a portion of the variable costs
could be passed on. The bidding guidelines were formulated in 2006 when domestic fuel supply
was adequate and international pressures had not crept in, and consequently optimistic bidders
had quoted very aggressive tariffs having low variable fuel price component thereby exposing
them to high risk. On the other hand inadequate supply of fuel forces the plants to operate at low
PLFs which lead to inefficiencies and thereby under recovery of fixed cost components. Also
changes in the legal environment in coal supplying countries also adversely impacts the domestic
producers and this has not been remedied. According to Mr. Amit Kapur, partner, Jyoti Sagar
Associates,
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Fuel shortages in the domestic market are leading to a heavy dependence on imports.
Unfortunately, the UMPP bid and other documents do not appear to take into account the fact
that for these imports, Indian generators are dependent on the fuel supplier, which supply
through contracts that are governed by foreign laws. The risk of change in the law governing
supply and the terms of supply including price variations have been totally ignored. When fuel
constitutes 60-80 per cent of the cost of generation, no generator can sustain a 25-year supply
commitment if the law restricts supply or increases prices dramatically,
Thus, in the face of the current crisis distributors are increasingly demanding renegotiation of
past contracts. Even though under the Electricity Act, 2003 regulators have no mechanism to
propose changes in existing tariffs, the government is considering changes in the existing
contracts in order to allow fuel costs to be passed on. In this regard, I.C.P. Keshari, joint
secretary, Ministry of Power recently remarked, We are still compiling the changes
RECOMMENDATIONS
Coal being the primary fuel source, must be prioritized. The shortfall between supply and
demand is expected to grow from 89 million tonnes in 2010-11 to 137 million tonnes in 2011-12
reaching 240 million tonnes by 2016-17 (Exhibit-5). CIL which earlier used to commit to
supplying 90% of fuel requirements of the plants which signed FSAs, is currently only assuring
50% of the fuel requirement. Power plants have to resort to imported coal to meet this shortfall.
However thermal plants in India can only use up to 15% imported coal as part of their optimal
fuel mix. Consequently commitment is required from CIL to provide adequate supply of
domestic coal. About 10% of the coal produced is reserved for electronic auctions. This could be
reduced to about 5% to free up additional reserves for the power sector. The constraints facing
CIL need to be addressed with feasible solutions. In addition CIL should look at developing new
sources as well as restoring abandoned mines. The power plants can also offer tenders in the
open market to source any additional requirements from other agencies such as State Trading
Corporation of India.
Imports have to be properly channelized to protect against rising prices. CIL could play an
important role in this aspect by developing a system whereby the higher price of imported coal is
evenly allocated over all coal supplies. It could act as a channel for importing coal and then
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provide the fuel mix to the power companies at uniform prices. The burden of higher prices has
to be borne by both the distributor as well as the end consumer. The Ministry of Power has to
reevaluate the existing contracts and allow tariff revision to maintain profitability and prevent
exodus of distributors. Concrete steps must be taken to ensure equitable distribution of costs.
The problem of captive mines in forested areas is currently under the consideration of an
Empowered Group of Ministers (EGOM) and the MoEF. The process for granting clearance
must be expedited. Power plants which are already under operation should not be prevented from
functioning due to regulations which have recently come into effect. Instead a better approach
would be to promote afforestation drives to mitigate the damage caused, and ensure that in future
environmental concerns are properly addressed.
With regard to procurement of coal, various measures can be implemented to bring about cost
minimization. Transportation facilities such as roadways, rail routes and ports have to be
strengthened to remove inefficiencies in coal transit and reduce both transit time and costs. Other
infrastructure and bureaucratic bottlenecks have to be removed. Linkages between coal sources
and power plants can also be improved by proper allocation of captive mines and selecting
optimal locations for new projects.
Lastly steps must be taken to improve the financial health of the state run power distributors.
Currently many banks refuse to provide line of credit to these companies owing to the
uncertainties with regards to resources and cost of operations, as well as previously unpaid loans.
As a result they face difficulties in meeting their capital requirements. A radical debt
restructuring initiative is required to bring these companies back on track. The government could
also act as guarantor to promote confidence among the lenders. Thus there is a need for
coordinated action between the Ministry of Power, the Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank
of India, as the banking regulator, to put an end to the financial crisis and promote stability in the
long run.
CONCLUSION
The Indian economy is beginning to recover from the recessionary phase that has gripped the
entire world. The new era of GDP growth requires considerable investment in the power sector
which forms the backbone of the Indian economy. Historically India has been characterized by
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appreciable shortfall between the demand and available supply of power. In recent years several
ambitious projects have been commissioned by the government to fulfill its target of full power
sustainability. Consequently the power sector has witnessed accelerated growth capped by the
highest recorded capacity addition in the current fiscal year. However the spectre of uncertainty
in the supply of fuel as well as rising fuel costs looms large. A part of it can be attributed to the
heavy dependency of the sector on fossilized fuels such as coal and natural gas. Even though
India possesses sufficient amounts of coal reserves, lack of proper development as well as
utilization issues have led to growing dependency on imported sources. Rising prices in the
international market coupled with low returns from domestic suppliers like CIL have pushed
power suppliers into a corner. The problems are further compounded by the fixing of low tariffs
and the prevalent financial struggles of the state run power distributors.
Going forward it is essential for the government to bring about changes in the regulations which
facilitate better sharing of the cost burden among different stakeholders. Domestic supply of coal
needs to be augmented and agencies like CIL need to meet their targets to reduce shortfalls. A
structured system of pricing with regard to imported coal needs to be implemented. In the long
run better planning with regard to allocation of captive mines and prospective locations of new
projects would be highly beneficial. In conclusion, the Indian power sector is going to experience
a huge surge in the coming years and building the infrastructure to manage the surge is the need
of the hour.
[3135 words]

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ENDNOTES
1. The State Electricity Supply Act, 1948 provided the basis for the takeover of most
electricity generation and distribution by the State Electricity Boards constituted under
it. Its provisions mainly govern the constitution of the Central Electricity Authority, State
Electricity Boards, Generating Companies, Consultative Councils and local Advisory
Committees, their statutory powers and functions.
2. The Electricity Act, 2003 was passed to transform the power sector in India by inviting
participation of private players in the generation, transmission and distribution of
power.
3. A captive power plant (CPP) is any generating station set up by an organisation to meet
its own power requirement. The CPPs cater to the electricity requirement of industrial
units in a large scale. The captive power generation capacity in India is 19,509.49 MW
(Apr 2008).
4. The Indonesian government has, in an order, decided to link the price of coal exported
from the country with a benchmark based on international prices of coal. The new coal
price benchmark is an average of monthly prices from four coal indices that include the
Indonesian Coal-price Index or ICI, the Global coal Newcastle Index, the Newcastle
Export Index and the Platts-1 Index.
5. A carbon tax is an environmental tax levied on the carbon content of fuels. It is a form
of carbon pricing. Australia passed the carbon tax Act in 2011 and it will come into effect
in 2012, increasing the price of coal for the countries importing coal from Australia.
6. The Fuel Supply Agreement is a long-term pact between coal producers and consumers
aimed at ensuring a dedicated supply of fuel. Trigger level is the minimum assured level
of coal supply and off-take, failing which both the parties attract penalty.

EXHIBIT 1
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COMMERCIAL PROFIT/LOSS (-) OF SEBs WITH SUBSIDY

(Source: Power sector reform: A case study in restructuring)

EXHIBIT 2
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Year

Losses

92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00

(crores)
2723
2710
985
1165
4344
7089
12356
12492

Variation in Demand and Production of Coal in recent years (Source: InfralineEnergy)

Year
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112

460.5

457.082

Rate of
growth of
Production
(%)
6.1

497.29

492.757

7.8

532.33

532.042

572.37

533.076

0.2

554

118.914 (up to 06-11)

Annual
Target
(BE)

Actual Production

EXHIBIT 3
Short to Medium Term Demand for Coal for Power Generation
(Source: Report the expert committee on roadmap for coal sector reforms)

Year

Installed
Capacity
MW

Average
PLF
(%)

Power
Generati
on (BU)

Specific
Consumpti
on
(Kg/kwh)

60048
62748
64328
72728
74908
78098
88000
96500
104000

72.45
72.67
74.97
71.08
76.67
77.14
76.21
74.78
74.66

381.12
399.45
422.45
452.84
503.12
527.74
587.51
632.16
680.21

0.692
0.693
0.697
0.701
0.705
0.708
0.707
0.707
0.707

2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12

Coal
Demand
for
Power
Generati
on (Mt)

Adjustme
nt for
quality of
Imported
Coal (Mt)

263.9
276.99
294.37
317.3
354.75
373.74
415.97
446.94
480.91

0
0
5.26
8.5
17.26
18.39
24
28.58
31.28

EXHIBIT 4
List of affected imported coal based projects (Source: TATA POWER)
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Total
adjusted
requireme
nt for
import
coal
quality
(Mt)
269.1
285.19
302.11
321.8
352.49
371.35
409.37
438.36
471.63

No.
1
2
3
4
5

Name
Tata Power: Mundra UMPP
Adani Power: Mundra
Adani Power: Tiroda
Lanco Infratech: Udipi
JSW Energy: Ratnagiri

Capacity (MW)
4000.0
2460.0
1980.0
507.5
300.0

List of projects facing shortfall in supply from CIL

No.
Name
Requirement sourced
1
Lanco Infratech: Amarkantak I and II
65%
2
Reliance Power: Rosa
60%
Other impacted projects include: NTPC Farakka, KSK Wardha and Lanco Infratech Anpara.
List of projects having captive mines in no-go areas
No.
1
2

Name
NTPC: Dulanga
Orissa Power Generation Corporation: Bedabahal
UMPP
IFFCO: Chattisgarh

Capacity (MW)
1600
1320
2 x 660

EXHIBIT 5
Availability of Coal for Power Sector during 2010-11 (Source: InfralineEnergy)
2009-10

Source
Target
(MT)
CIL

2010-11

Receipt
(MT)

Target
(%)

(MT)

Growth in
Receipts

Receipts
(MT)

(%)

(%)

313

296.4

94.7

335

302

90.4

1.9

SCCL

30

33.4

111.3

31

32

103.2

(-)4.2

CAPTIVE

20

22.4

112

22

22

100

(-)1.8

25.7

20.8

80.1

35

21 (P)

60

388.7

373

96

423

377

89.1

1.1

IMPORT
Total

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