AnAgingEuropeinDecline

byArthurC.Brooks
NewYorkTimesEditorial
IvefallenandIcantgetup.Thesewords,shoutedbyanelderlywoman,weremadefamousina
medicalalertdeviceadinthe1990s.In2015,theymightbeEuropescatchphrase.
AstheUnitedStateseconomyslowlyrecovers,analystsacrossthepoliticalspectrumseelittletocheer
themfromEurope.Theoptimistsseetheregionseconomygrowingbyjust1percentin2015;many
othersfearthatatriplediprecessionisintheoffing.Germanyiswidelyviewedasahealthycountry
whoseprosperityhelpscompensateforEuropesweakness,yetoverthepasttwoquartersforwhichwe
have data, it has experienced no net growth at all. Predictions of decadelong deflation, low
productivityandhighunemploymentarebecomingconventionalwisdom.
WhatdoestheContinentneed?Mosteconomistsandpunditsfocusonmonetaryandfiscalpolicy,as
wellaslabormarketreform.Getthepolicyleversandeconomicincentivesright,andtheContinent
mightescapethevortexofdecline,right?
Probablynot.Asimportantasgoodeconomicpoliciesare,theywillnotfixEuropescoreproblems,
whicharedemographic,noteconomic.ThiswasthepointmadeinaspeechtotheEuropeanParliament
inNovemberbynoneotherthanPopeFrancis.Asthepontiffputit,Inmanyquartersweencountera
generalimpressionofwearinessandaging,ofaEuropewhichisnowagrandmother,nolongerfertile
andvibrant.
Butwait,itgetsworse:GrandmaEuropeisnotmerelygrowingold.Sheisalsogettingdotty.Sheis,as
thepopesadlyexplainedinanearlierspeechtoaconferenceofbishops,wearywithdisorientation.
Some readers might regret the popes use oflanguage we love our grandmothers, weary with
disorientationornot.ButasmyAmericanEnterpriseInstitutecolleagueNicholasEberstadtshowsin
hisresearch,thepopesanalysisisfundamentallysound.
Startwithage.AccordingtotheUnitedStatesCensusBureausInternationalDatabase,nearlyonein
fiveWesternEuropeanswas65yearsoldorolderin2014.Thisishardenoughtoendure,giventhe
countriesearlyretirementagesandpayasyougopensionsystems.Butby2030,thiswillhaverisen
tooneinfour.Ifhistoryisanyguide,agingelectorateswilldirectlargerandlargerportionsofgross
domesticproducttoretirementbenefitsandinvestlessinopportunityforfuturegenerations.
Next,lookatfertility.AccordingtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,the
lasttimethecountriesoftheEuropeanUnionwerereproducingatreplacementlevels(thatis,slightly
morethantwochildrenperwoman)wasthemid1970s.In2014,theaveragenumberofchildrenper
womanwasabout1.6.Thatsupahairfromthenadirin2001,buthasbeenfallingagainformorethan
halfadecade.Imagineaworldwheremanypeoplehavenosisters,brothers,cousins,auntsoruncles.
ThatswhereEuropeisheadinginthecomingdecades.Onthebrightside,atleasttherewillbefewer
Christmaspresentstobuy.
Therearesomeexceptions.Francehasrisentoexactlytwochildrenperwomanin2012,from1.95in
1980,anincreaselargelyattributedtoasystemofgovernmentpaymentstoparents,notachangeinthe
cultureoffamilylife.Isthereanythingmoredystopianthanthenotionthatpopulationdeclinecanbe
slowedonlywhenstatesbribetheircitizenstoreproduce?
Finally,consideremployment.LastSeptember,theUnitedStateslaborforceparticipationratethe
percentageofadultswhoareeitherworkingorlookingforworkreacheda36yearlowofjust62.7
percent.Yetasbadasthatis,theUnitedStateslooksdecentcomparedwithmostofEurope.Our
friendsacrosstheAtlanticliketosaythatwelivetowork,whiletheyworktolive.Thatmightbe
compellingifmoreofthemwereactuallyworking.Accordingtothemostrecentdataavailablefrom
theWorldBank,thelaborforceparticipationrateintheEuropeanUnionin2013was57.5percent.In
Franceitwas55.9percent.InItaly,just49.1percent.

Onebrightspotmightseemtobeimmigration.In2012,themedianageofthenationalpopulationin
theEuropeanUnionwas41.9years,whilethemedianageofforeignerslivingintheunionwas34.7.
So,areEuropeanspleasedthattherewillbenewarrivalstoworkandpaytaxeswhenthelocalsretire?
Notexactly.AntiimmigrantsentimentissurgingacrosstheContinent.Nativistmovementsperformed
alarminglywellinEuropeanParliamentelectionslastyear.Europeislesslikeagrandmotherknitting
placidlyinthewindowandmorelikeanangrygrandfather,shakinghisrakeandyellingatoutsidersto
getoffhislawn.
NoneofthisshouldgiveAmericanscauseforschadenfreude.Atapurelypracticallevel,aEuropean
marketinfurtherdeclinewillsuppressAmericangrowth.Butmoreimportant,Europeandeterioration
willdissipatethevastgoodtheContinentcandoinspreadingthevaluesofdemocracyandfreedom
aroundtheworld.
SowhatistheprescriptionforEuropesillsandthelessonforAmericasfuture?
Itistruethatgoodmonetaryandfiscalpoliciesareimportant.ButthedeeperproblemsinEuropewill
notbesolvedbytheEuropeanCentralBank.Nomatterwhatthemoneysupplyandpublicspending
levels,acountryorcontinentwillbeindeclineifitrejectsthecultureoffamily,turnsitsbackonwork,
andclosesitselftostriversfromtheoutside.
Europeneedsvisionaryleadersandasocialmovementtorediscoverthatpeopleareassetstodevelop,
notliabilitiestomanage.Ifitcannotorwillnotmeetthisexistentialchallenge,alostdecadewill
looklikeawalkintheparkforGrandmaEurope.