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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
02 FEB 06 FEB 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold stayed up on Friday supported by weak dollar amid weak equities. Meanwhile,
market players were eying preliminary data on fourth quarter growth of US economy
as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on
consumer sentiment, due later in the day, for further indications on the strength of
the U.S. economic recovery. Euro remained supported on Friday after release of the
inflation and unemployment data. The Euro quotes at $1.1357 level, up 0.34% over
last day. Meanwhile, the US dollar index quotes at 94.73, down 0.24%.
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2%
in December 2014, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of
the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is
driven by the fall in energy prices. Core inflation slowed to 0.5% surge from 0.7% in
the previous month. The next release with full data for January 2015 is scheduled for
24 February 2015. The euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 11.4%
in December 2014, down from 11.5% in November 2014 and from 11.8% in December
2013. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since August 2012.

Gold Holds Gains

Ahead Of Key
Economic Events.

World oil prices tumbled close to six-year lows this week, as record-high US crude
inventories deepened worries over the global supply glut.
In another blow, official data showed today that the US economy slowed sharply in
the fourth quarter of 2014, sparking fears over demand in the United States, which is
the world's biggest oil consumer.
New York crude oil dived yesterday to USD 43.58 per barrel, striking a nadir last seen
on March 12, 2009. Prices plunged after official data showed Wednesday that US
crude stockpiles surged by 8.9 million barrels to 406.7 million in the week to January
23.

Oil strikes lowest

level since 2009 in
volatile week.

The overall level of stockpiles was the highest since the US government began
keeping weekly records in 1982. Meanwhile, data showed today that US gross
domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter.
That marked a steep decline from the brisk 5.0 per cent growth in the third quarter.
The possibilities of recovery in Copper were taken away in the first month of the year.
The prices of Copper faced sharp depletion during January and corrected to five year
lows. Both COMEX and MCX Copper faced declines. Meanwhile, China plans to cut its
growth target to around 7 percent in 2015, its lowest goal in 11 years, as policymakers
try to manage slowing growth, job creation and pursuing reforms intended to make
the economy more driven by market forces.
Further gains in Copper during the months of February also look unlikely. Although
there will be bouts of bottom buying, but it is still early days before the real bottom in
Copper can be determined. The prices of Copper depleted multiyear lows as selling
pressure and demand side worries from China re-emerged. This has raised the
eyebrows for the demand emerging from the region that consumes more than 40
percent of Copper. In a separate set of event in January the prices faced caution from
slashed forecasts of world growth by IMF. The IMF now expects world growth of 3.5%
this year, compared with the previous estimate of 3.8% which it made in October. The
growth forecast for 2016 has also been cut, to 3.7%.

Copper Shows
Recovery in
Evening Trades,
January Remains
Underperforming
Month.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Feb 02 7:00pm

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

0.0%

7:00pm

Personal Spending m/m

-0.1%

0.6%

7:00pm

Personal Income m/m

0.2%

0.4%

8:15pm

Final Manufacturing PMI

54.1

53.7

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.9

55.5

8:30pm

Construction Spending m/m

0.9%

-0.3%

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing Prices

40.1

38.5

Feb 03 8:30pm

Factory Orders m/m

-1.8%

-0.7%

8:30pm

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

51.4

51.5

All Day

Total Vehicle Sales

17.0M

16.9M

Feb 04 6:45pm

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

221K

241K

8:15pm

Final Services PMI

54.3

54.0

8:30pm

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

56.6

56.2

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

8.9M

Feb 05 6:00pm

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

6.6%

7:00pm

Trade Balance

-38.0B

-39.0B

7:00pm

Unemployment Claims

277K

265K

7:00pm

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

0.9%

2.3%

7:00pm

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.1%

-1.0%

9:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

Feb 06 7:00pm

Non-Farm Employment Change

231K

252K

7:00pm

Unemployment Rate

5.6%

5.6%

7:00pm

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

-0.2%

11:15pm

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

Feb 07 1:30am

Consumer Credit m/m

15.1B

14.1B

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed bearish movement
after testing upper band of channel
pattern droped down towards its
important support level of 27450.
Now, if it is able to break channel
pattern on lower side then 26600 will
act as major support level. On other
hand if it maintains above 28000 then
bullish movement may take it towards
the next resistance range of 2850029000.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 28100 for the targets of 2860029000 with stop loss of 27300.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

27330

26875

26450

28080

28530

29050

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
downward movement last week, not
able to maintain above 40000, drag
and found support around trendline.
Now, if it sustain below 37000 then
next support is seen in the range of
35700-35000.
On
higher
side
maintaining above 39000 will again
lead it towards the resistance level of
40500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 37000 for
the targets of 35700-35000, with stop
loss of 39100.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

37025

35700

34385

38875

40260

41530

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways to bearish movement and
break the important support of 2750
but not able to closed below it. Now, if
it sustain below 2720 then next
important support level is seen around
2450. On the other hand if it maintains
above 2950 then 3140 will act as major
resistance level.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
buy above 2950 for the target of 3130,
with stop loss of 2700.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2720

2560

2375

2970

3140

3325

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement, gave breakout of 340 and
found support of 332 on weekly
charts. Now, if it sustain below 332
then again bearishness will drag it
towards next important support level
of 317. On the other hand if some
correction occur on higher side then
major resistance is seen around 361.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 332, with stop loss of 352 for the
target of 317.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

332.35

321.40

311.75

347.15

360.85

372.15

DISCLAIMER

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