Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Week 1
Semester 2
2009-10
Peter Moles
Replicating portfolios
Static replication
Dynamic replication
Role of derivatives
Trading and settlement
Workshop: contract specifications
Derivatives
Course teacher
Dr Peter Moles
Current activity:
Researching in areas of capital budgeting
securities trading and risk management
Derivatives
Course outline
3 components
Forwards/futures
Swaps
Options
Combination of:
Assessment
Examination only
NB you may need a
calculator in class and
Definitely for tutorials
Taught material
Case studies
Workshops
Self-study via weekly exercises;
end of chapter review questions,
etc.
Derivatives
Topics
Terminal instruments
[I] Futures & Forwards
Introduction
Arbitrage & replicating
portfolio
[III] Options
Introduction & option
strategies/
Properties & behaviour of
options
Binomial
Black-Scholes-Merton
Options on indices,
currencies, futures/
Embedded options
The Greeks
Exotic options/Review
Derivatives
Required text
John Hull, 2009, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 6e, Prentice Hall
References in the course booklet are made to this textbook
Also recommended is:
Robert Kolb & James Overdahl, 2007, Futures, Options, and Swaps, Blackwells
In addition, there are many textbooks, treatments and expositions of derivatives
pricing, markets, strategies, investment, etc.
Also many, many websites which have material on derivatives
but beware of quality of some of the discussion/analysis
Derivatives
Arbitrage
Classic deterministic arbitrage involves buying an asset at a low
price in one market whilst immediately selling it at a higher price in
another market to make a risk-free profit with no net investment as
the cash received from selling is used to finance the purchase
Rule of thumb: buy low, sell high
Derivatives
Some principles
In an efficient market, assets (or combinations of assets [portfolios])
with the same payoffs should trade at the same price
To determine whether assets or combinations of assets are correctly
priced, we need a valuation model
in finance, most models are valuation models since we want to determine
whether our asset, portfolio, security or whatever we want to value is being
priced correctly
that is, we want to measure our model price against market prices
In addition, we may also be seeking to establish the price at which it would
trade in the market
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10
3. Replicating Portfolios
or
Applying Arbitrage
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12
Quadrangle arbitrage:
Exploiting mispricing in different elements in FX market
1.
2.
3.
4.
13
Spot FX rate
[1]
(3)
(4)
[2]
Forward FX rate
14
Dynamic arbitrage
Some Not all arbitrage operations can take place at the onset. Take a
contingent claim [aka option] on a share (stock) which has a payoff (S K)
at T=2 where K = $90.
At T=1, the share price might rise to $120 or fall to $80. If it rises to $120 at
T=2 it might rise again to $140 or fall back to $100;
If it falls to $80 at T=1, at T= 2 it might rise again to $100 or continue to fall
to $60
The payoffs of the contingent claim at T=2 will depend on the share price
and will be:
Share price:
140
100
60
Contingent claim:
50
10
0
The current value of the share is $100 and the market price of the
contingent claim is $25, the one period interest rate = 4%
Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Derivatives
15
Value of
contingent claim
T=2 at maturity (S K)
T=1
[UU]
140
50
100
10
60
120
[U]
[UD]
[a]
100
[DU]
[b]
[D]
80
[DD]
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16
60
60*
0
100
90
10
140
90
50
Gain = difference between what we buy for and what we can sell for
(market price)
*In this case we dont complete transaction since we dont have to
(and, if needed can buy the share in market)
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17
(69.85)
Borrow:
48.32
25.00
Net position/gain
3.47
11Note
NoteI Icannot
cannotdetermine
determinewhether
whetherthe
thecontingent
contingentclaim
claimisisover
over
or
undervalued
until
I
have
valued
it
with
my
pricing
or undervalued until I have valued it with my pricingmodel
model
Derivatives
18
120
80
83.82
1.00
36.18
120.00
50.29
36.18
86.47
33.53
55.88
0.25
(35.88)
20.00
50.29
(35.88)
14.41
5.59
11
We
Weget
getthis
thisfrom
fromour
ourpricing
pricingmodel
model(its
(itsknown
knownas
asthe
thedelta)
delta)
22
Rule
Ruleis,
is,ififshare
shareprice
pricerises,
rises,increase
increasefractional
fractionalinvestment;
investment;
ififprice
pricedrops,
drops,reduce
reducefractional
fractionalinvestment
investment
Derivatives
19
Value of Shares
[A] Portfolio from T=1 S=120
[B] Borrowing (86.47 + interest)
[A B] Net equity in position
T=2
140
140
90
50
100
100
90
10(a)
60
25
15
10(b)
15
15
0
50
10
20
10
21
Derivatives
22
11
Implications of replicating
portfolio approach
Financial engineering of new securities (contingent claims)
Uses only (1) borrowing & lending and (2) investment in existing
securities (i.e. fundamental financial instruments)
Seller is indifferent to outcome (position is hedged against loss, if
model is correct)
Model provides a means of determining fair value of contingent claim
It is the cost of replication or the price of hedging
To make the model work, we only need to know, (1) risk-free interest
rate, and (2) values of securities in two states, not the probabilities of
the states occurring
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12
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25
Hedging
Special case of risk modification where exposure is
reduced to zero
Speculation
Taking advantage of directional or exposure to
risks
Arbitrage
Exploiting market mispricing
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26
13
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27
14
Derivatives markets
Exchange Traded
standard products
trading floor or computer trading
virtually no credit risk
Over-the-Counter
non-standard products
telephone market
some credit risk
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29
Types of traders
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
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30
15
31
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32
16
Margin
A margin is cash or marketable securities
deposited by an investor with his or her broker
The balance in the margin account is adjusted
to reflect daily settlement
Margins minimize the possibility of a loss
through a default on a contract
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34
17
A possible outcome
Day
Daily
Futures Gain
Price (Loss)
(US$) (US$)
Cumulative Margin
Gain
Account Margin
(Loss) Balance Call
(US$)
(US$) (US$)
400.00
4,000
3-Jun 397.00
.
.
.
.
.
.
(600)
.
.
.
(600)
.
.
.
3,400
.
.
.
0
.
.
.
11-Jun 393.30
.
.
.
.
.
.
(420)
.
.
.
(1,340)
.
.
.
17-Jun 387.00
.
.
.
.
.
.
(1,140)
.
.
.
(2,600)
.
.
.
24-Jun 392.30
260
(1,540)
5,060
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35
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36
18
Delivery
If a contract is not closed out before maturity, it is
usually settled by delivering the assets underlying
the contract.
When there are alternatives about what is
delivered, where it is delivered, and when it is
delivered, the party with the short position chooses.
Some contracts, for example, those on stock
indices and Eurodollar deposits are settled in cash
(known as cash-settled)
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37
Regulation
Regulation is designed to protect the
public interest
Regulators try to prevent questionable
trading practices by either individuals
on the floor of the exchange or outside
groups
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38
19
Workshop
Symbol
Hours
Contract unit
Price quotation
NYMEX
Light sweet crude oil
CL
09.00 13.30 (EST)
1,000 barrels
$ & per barrel
Minimum fluctuation
Termination of
trading
Listed contracts
Settlement type
Delivery
Grade & quality
Position limits
CME
T-bond contract
US
07.20 14.00 (CST)
T-bond $100,000
Points ($1,000) & 1/32nd of
point ($31.25)*
1/32nd of a point (=$31.25)
7th bs day prior to delivery
day
3 contracts (M, J, S, D)
Physical
Yes
Deliverable bonds/notes
Yes
* 134-16 = 134 16/32
Derivatives
20
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21