Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Presenter:
Agenda Items
for the Session:
What is Interest Rate Risk
What are the types of Interest Rate Risks
Effects of Interest Rate Risks
Measurement of Interest Rate Risks
Strategies for Controlling Interest Rate Risks
Basel Committee Recommendations
Sound Interest Rate Risk Management
Practices
12/17/2009
12/17/2009
Repricing Risk
12/17/2009
Basis Risk
Yield Curve
Risk
Embedded
Option Risk
Repricing Risk
Arises on account of mismatches in rates
Can be measured by the measure of risk in different time
buckets
Information needed
Capital
(Crore)
@ ROI
Assets
Maturity
Investment
(Crore)
@
ROI
Spread
Maturity
Scenario-1
Rs100
9%
10%
Two year
Profit
1%(1crore)
Two year
Loss
1%(1crore)
Scenario-2
Rs100
12/17/2009
11%
2nd year
Rs100
10%
@ ROI
Assets
Maturity
Investment
(Crore)
Scenario-1
Rs100
8%
91 days
Rs100
Fixed Rate
10%
Rs100
Fixed Rate
11%
Scenario-2
Rs100
9%
91 days
@ ROI
Scenario-3
Float Rate
Rs100
10%
8%
91 days
Rs100
(1st
month)
Spread
Maturity
91 days
Profit
2%(0.49crore)
91 days
Profit
2%(0.49crore)
30 days
Profit
2%(0.164crore)
61 days
Profit
3%(0.5crore)
Total:
0.664 Crore
Float Rate
11%(2nd month)
Asset
Sensitive
Scenario-4
8%
91 days
Rs100
Liability
Sensitive
12/17/2009
9%
Rs100
Fixed Rate
10%
5 years
91 days
Presenter: Dr. Vighneswara
Basis Risk
Interest rates on assets and liabilities do not change in the
same proportion.
When Bank Rate was raised by 2%, PLR was raised by 1% and
deposit rates by 1.5%
Interest rates movement is based on market perception of risk
and also market imperfections.
Therefore, basis risk arises when interest rates of different
assets and liabilities change in different magnitudes.
Savings Deposit
50
Call Money
50
Fixed Deposit
50
Cash Credit
40
Total
100
Total
90
Gap(-)
10
Fall in Rates
Fall in Amount
(Rs Crores)
Call Money
50 * 1.0%
0.50
Cash Credit
40 * 0.7%
0.28
(-)
0.78
Savings Deposit
50 * 0.5%
0.25
Fixed Deposit
50 * 0.4%
0.20
(+)
0.45
(-)
0.33(Rs 33 Crores)
12/17/2009
@
ROI
Scenario-1
Rs100
Maturity
8%
90
days
8%
90
days
Scenario-2
Rs100
Assets
Loan
(Crore)
Rs100
Rs100
@ ROI
Maturity
10%
90
days
Profit
2%(0.49crore)
2%(0.164crore)
10%
90
days
60
days
1%(0.164crore)
Int. Rates
decline after
30 days to 9%
Total
12/17/2009
Spread
for 30days
for 60 days
0.328 crore
10
12/17/2009
11
Yield Curve is
the
relation
between
the
interest
rate
(or
cost
of
borrowing) and
the time to
maturity of the
debt
for
a
given borrower
in
a
given
currency.
12/17/2009
shape of
yield curve
Yield Curve
TEXT
Yield Curve
Risk
The risk of
experiencing
an
adverse
shift
in
market
interest rates
associated
with
investing in a
fixed income
instrument.
12
@ ROI
Scenario-1
Rs100
Reference:
91 day T-Bill
Assets
Maturity
Loan
(Crore)
3 year
13.5%
fixed(quar
terly
repriced)
Rs100
@ ROI
Spread
Maturity
Loan
16%
3 year
Reference:
364 day T-Bill @13%
rterly
repriced)
(2.5crore)
16%
90
days
Profit
1.0%
float(qua
Profit
2.5%
@12.5%
Scenario-2
Rs100
Reference:
91 day T-Bill
15%
90
days
Rs100
Reference:
364 day T-Bill @13%
(1crore)
@14%
Date
91 T-Bill
Deposit
364 T-Bill
Loan
Spread
22.05.2008
4.48%
5.48%
4.62%
7.62%
2.14%
08.08.2008
4.93%
5.93%
4.85%
7.85%
1.92%
08.12.2008
12/17/2009
4.71%
5.71%
4.24%
Presenter: Dr. Vighneswara
7.24%
1.53%
13
Maturity pattern
1- 14 DAYS
15 - 28 DAYS
29 DAYS - 3 MTS
3-6 MONTHS
6-ONE YEAR
ONE - 3 YEARS
3-5 YEARS
12/17/2009
ABOVE
5 YRS
18785.27
15920.09
31772.55
31161.34
68403.39
77914.78
87629.72
90673.27
101260.22
98917.23
108310.71
106316.51
114558.21
124538.91
Vighneswara
134964.33Presenter: Dr.
137905.36
-2865.18
-611.21
9511.39
3043.55
-2342.99
-1994.2
9980.7
2941.03
7.16
1.53
(-23.78)
(-7.61)
5.86
4.99
(-24.95)
14 -7.35
Measurement of IRR
Approaches to Measure IRR
Maturity
Gap
Analysis
12/17/2009
Duration
Gap
Analysis
Simulation
Value at
Risk
15
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16
17
Three Options:
A) RSA>RSL= Positive Gap
B) RSL>RSA= Negative Gap
C) RSL=RSA= Zero Gap
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18
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
Asset
(Crores)
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
1800*
10
11
800*
12
13
11
3000
11
11
11
1000*
14
15
13
1000*
16
17
15
2000
18
18
18
Int
756
income
784
728
246
256
236
5000
5000
Int
Expe
nse
510
NII=
528
492
19
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
Asset
(Crores)
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
1800*
10
11
800*
12
13
11
3000
11
11
11
1000
14
15
13
1000
16
17
15
2000
18
18
18
Int
756
income
784
728
246
256
236
5000
5000
Int
Expe
nse
510
NII=
528
492
20
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
Asset
(Crores)
Rate Increase
%
d
Rate%
Decreased
Rate%
200
1800*
10
11
800*
12
13
11
3000
11
11
11
1000*
14
15
13
1000
16
17
15
2000
18
18
18
Int
756
income
784
728
246
256
236
5000
5000
Int
Expe
nse
510
NII=
528
492
21
STRATEGY
Declining Interest
Rates
Uncertain situation
(May not occur in reality)
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22
12/17/2009
23
12/17/2009
Presenter: Dr.
24Vighneswara
12/17/2009
Presenter: Dr.
25Vighneswara
NII = Gap x
Where,
27
Gap x
r = Earning Assets x NIM x
C
Therefore,
r
Where; Earning Assets = Total Assets of the Bank
NIM
= Net Interest Margin
C
= Acceptable Change in NIM
12/17/2009
Dr. Change
Vighneswara
=Presenter:
Expected
in Interest Rates
28
GAP = -----------------------------------------------------
r
0.0075
12/17/2009
0.0075
29
2900
1005
RSL
2000
695
GAP
900
310
GAP Ratio
1.45
1.45
NII
830
390
Decrease in Interest
0.5
0.5
4.5
0.54%
1.55
0.40%
Inference: Gap level is more helpful than the Gap Ratio in taking
Positions
12/17/2009
Presenter: Dr. Vighneswara
30
Liability
Rate%
Increased
Weight
Rate%
Assets
200
Rate%
Increased
Weight
Rate%
200
1800
10
3000
11
0.75
10.75
800
12
0.5
12.5
11
1000
14
0.25
14.25
1000
16
0.5
16.5
2000
18
18
Statement Of
Interest Rate Sensitivity
32
Whether Interest
bearing
Fixed / Floating
Rate
Remarks
Liabilities
Capital
No
No
Deposits
- Current Deposits
No
- Savings Deposits
Yes
- Term Deposits
Fixed
Yes
Fixed
Yes
Fixed
Yes
Generally Fixed
- Interest Payable
Yes
Fixed
- Subordinated Debts
Yes
Fixed
Borrowings
Sometimes, floating, linked to
LIBOR
Other Liabilities
- Others
12/17/2009
NO
33
Adverse
No Impact Favourable
Adverse
34
12/17/2009
35
Duration
Analysis:
It concentrates
on the price risk
and the
reinvestment
risk while
managing the
interest rate
exposure.
Duration
Analysis:
It also measures
the effect of rate
fluctuation on
the market value
of the assets and
liabilities and
NIM with the help
of duration.
36
Equity
ST
Depo
LT
Depo
200
Cash
200
1800
11.5
ST
Loans
1800
2.75
12.5
15
LT
Loans
2000
23
16.5
11
Invest
ments
1000
10.5
13.5
2500
5.5
23.7
Others
500
11.5
5000
12/17/2009
5000
Presenter: Dr. Vighneswara
37
Equity
Int.
Rate(%)
200
ST
Depos 1800
LT
Depos 2500
Others
Int.
Rate(%)
500
5000
Int.
Expe
NII
NIM
12/17/2009
5.5
11.5
13.5
9.5
23.7
11.5
15
11
15
13
15
9
637
683
591
(crore)
Cash
ST
Loans
LT
Loans
Investm
in
Rate(%)
Int.
Mnths
Rate(%)
Int.
Rate(%)
200
1800 2.75
12.5
14.5
10.5
2000 23
1000 10.5
5000
16.5
13.5
16.5
15.5
16.5
11.5
690
746
634
Int
Income
53
63
43
0.010 0.0126 0.0086
6
Presenter: Dr. Vighneswara
38
Ds x S = ( D x A ) - ( DL x L )
Where,
S = Surplus / Gap
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39
Then,
New MV = Current MV +
12/17/2009
MV
40
MV =
-D( r) x Current MV
----------------------------------(1+r)
An Example:
The following is the information about Bharath Bank. Market value of
liabilities is Rs1800 crores, MV of Assets is Rs2000 Crores, Duration of
Assets is 5 years, Duration of Liabilities is 4 years, the ROI is 10% and
Change in the ROI is +2%. You are required to asses the change in the MV of
the bank whose Equity is currently Rs200 crore.
Answer:
Parameter
Change in MV
Original MV
New MV
Assets
-5(0.02) x2000
(1+0.1)
182
2000
1818
Liabilities
-4(0.02) x1800
(1+0.1)
131
1800
1669
182 131
51
200
149
Equity
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41
Simulation
What is it?
Data Requirement
Computer
generated
scenarios about future and
response to that in a dynamic
way
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42
12/17/2009
43
Simulation
-Advantages
Forward looking
-Disadvantages
Accuracy depends on quality
of data, strength of the model
and validity of assumptions
Dynamic
Lessens the role of crisis
management
Time consuming
Enhances capability of
analysis
Interpretation easy
Timing of cash flows captured
accurately
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44
12/17/2009
45
EARNINGS
SIMULATION
ECONOMIC VALUATION
Short-Term
Earnings
Exposure
Long-term
Exposure
Repricing Risk
Yes
Yes
Yes
Limited*
Yes
Yes
Yes
Basis Risk
Limited*
Yes
Limited*
Yield
Curve Limited*
Risk
Option Risk
Limited*
Yes
Yes
Limited*
Yes
* The ability of these types of models to capture this type of risk will vary with the
sophistication
of the model and
the manner
in which bank management uses
12/17/2009
Presenter:
Dr. Vighneswara
46
12/17/2009
47
Conclusion
Based on the quantity of interest rate risk
and quality of interest rate risk management,
we can evaluate the adequacy of the banks
capital.
Determine the component rating for
sensitivity to market risk.
Determine further the effect of interest rate
and earnings on the business in a
macroscopic view.
12/17/2009
48