2010 International Conference on Electrical and Control Engineering

Fault diagnosis of the blast furnace based on

the Bayesian network model
Pan Lian, Ning Ning, Chen Aiping, Tong Yaobin
College of Information Science and Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology
Wuhan, China
E-mail: plwisco@163.com
operation mode, monitor system, fault forecast and warning
system optimization function is very important.
The reasoning model is smelted in induction diagnosis
expert system is an important part of the blast furnace, only in
the line of the stability condition of blast furnace smelting
process can optimize the prediction and control. Current
applications include fuzzy logic reasoning model and neural
network model, the method of fault diagnosis method for fault
handling capacity is low, the imperfection of uncertainty is
more difficult to handle. This paper puts forward a method
based on FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of
the Bayesian networks blast furnace condition abnormal
diagnosis system - CFE (Cause Failure Effect)comfortable
situation has been creation pool of Bayesian method, Use
FMEA "failure cause", "failure mode" and "fault effect" the
relationship between to confirm the diagnosis of network
topology structure, system fault of causality and the hierarchy,
and the Bayesian network fault diagnosis of decision-making
techniques of probability model is confirmed. To provide
theoretical basis for fault diagnosis

AbstractBlast furnace condition and stable operation for blast

furnace is crucial, The production practice shows that only by
maintaining the stability of blast furnace condition, could it
achieve high yield, high quality, low consumption , longevity,
obtain good technical and economic indexes. However, the
process of smelting furnace is influenced by many factors, which
will definitely cause the fluctuation in furnace condition.
Therefore, the operator must be timely to judge change-trend
and amplitude at the blast furnace condition, figure out the
reasons for changing conditions in smelted induction, and adjust
it promptly, only through which could maintain the stable
smelted in induction. Due to the different levels of the operators,
so the adjustment method is also different. Moreover, it will
inevitably result in the fluctuation in furnace condition, for the
operators have to face with a lot of operating parameters.
Therefore, it is absolutely useful and necessary to summarize the
experiences of excellent operators, to make the furnace operation
unification and standardization through establishing the model of
intelligent diagnosis, to forecast online as well as gives practical
guidance in furnace condition.
To solve the problem of blast furnace failure mode and effect
analysis are unable to quantitative description of the occurrence
probability of fault model. This paper puts forward a Bayesian
network topology structure based on the FMEA--CFE (Cause
Failure Effect)-type Bayesian diagnostic network. On the basis
of the relationship between failure reason, failure mode and
failure fault in FMEA, the diagnostic network topology
structure can be confirmed, and the causality and gradation in
system fault can be described. So, we can solve the probability of
failure mode by adopting Bayesian network fault diagnosis of
decision-making techniques. This method will provide theoretical
basis for blast furnace fault diagnosis, and through the actual
research, the validity of this method finally has been verified. It
provides effective guidance to the actual production of blast
furnace
Keywords- Bayesian network model;
diagnosis; Blast furnace condition.

I.

FMEA method;

II.
A.

Bayesian network basic principle

Bayesian network method which is based on the probability
analysis, graph theory, is a kind of uncertain knowledge
representation and reasoning model .It is a causal knowledge
and probability of combining information presentation
framework. From the intuitive sense. Bayesian network
performance for the assignment of a causal relationship
between the complex network chart, each node in the network
express a variable, namely an event, each of the variables are
expressed with the incident to the arc direct causal
relationship. In the Bayesian networks, qualitative information
through the Internet, and the topological structure of
quantitative information through the joint probability density
node.
For variables U{X1,X2,,Xn}The Bayesian network is its
graphical joint probability distribution, X1,X2, ,Xn
Corresponding to the network nodes, The joint probability
density P(X1,X2, ,Xn):

Fault

INTRODUCTION (HEADING 1)

By smelting process of the iron &steel metallurgical has

become an important production process, its production
system increasingly complex and large-scale, equipment tend
diversification, automation degree. And blast smelting system
malfunction with the phenomenon also produced, the damage
will increase. Therefore, carries on the diagnosis of smelting
furnace is smelted mechanism analysis and research, establish
effective and accurate fault diagnosis of blast furnace

P(U)= P(X1,X2, ,Xn)=

P(Xi|i)

i =1

i for the collection, Xi edge probability for:

This work is supported by natural science fund project in Hubei province

2009CDB270

978-0-7695-4031-3/10 $26.00 2010 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/iCECE.2010.251

BAYESIAN NETWORK FAULT DIAGNOSIS METHOD

990

(1)

P(Xi) =

P(U )

B. Bayesian network assignment

z To determine the root node prior probability. For node X,
assume P (X) is multidimensional distribution, the vector
parameter is(1,,3) and(K)=P(X=Xk) k=1,2,3,
obey Dirichlet distribution:

(2)

exceptX

Bayesian network application is according to the test

results statistical inference. Assume for Bayesian network, has
made observations e, are:

P(U , e)
P(U , e)
=
P(U|e)=
P (e )
P(U , e)

i > 0; i=1,2,3, and

= 1 ,I show prior

i =1

distribution parameters.

Basic steps of Bayesian network modeling

Choosing appropriate network topology. Major is
determined model variable and causal relationship
between variables, determine the topology of the network.
The key to this step is that network topology can be
reflected by the problem of the study. Variables can select
discrete or continuous distribution.
For the Bayesian networks assignment. The root node
assignment, to determine its prior probability. For other
nodes assignment, to determine conditional probability.
According to expert information and test information to
determine the prior probability and conditional
probability. This is the key and difficult of the Bayesian
network modeling
Belief propagation and inference. This process is a new
experiment mainly mixes information and information
network structure. Improved network nodes and
probability distributions, and finally the statistical
inference.
III.

(4)

(3)

B.
z

D[ ,1, , 2, , 3]

Suppose 0=

, The expectations and variance of

i =1

Dirichlet distribution is:

E(i)=

i
0

Var(i)=
z

COMPLEX SYSTEM FMEA BAYESIAN NETWORK

MODELING

A. Determine the Bayesian network topology

Based on Bayesian network FMEA have three kinds of
node: The first sign of nodes is symptom node, it can be
directly obtained by observation. The second node is failure
cause node, which is caused by the fault systems components.
There are three states: the normal (N), abnormal (D) and fault
(F). The third class node shows the fault harsh degree; this
kind of node degree is only connected with sign system node.
Defined node is on the basis of Bayesian network modeling.
The causal relationship between the faults is through the chain
link node. Figure 1 is the FMEA model multilevel structure.

(5)

i ( 0 i )
02 ( 0 + 1)

(6)

Determine the causal link between nodes. Design of

conditional probability distribution list, which is based
on the different state parent probability distribution.
Determine the root node and the rest of the node prior
probability of conditional probability, which can be
determined according to the Bayesian theory all nodes
unconditional prior probability. Based on it, we can
process statistical inference.
Determine the probability distribution of degree of
harsh. For severe degree of probability distribution, we
must know the deepening of knowledge system and
amend to reflect the actual situation of system according
to the condition of experiment.

C. Belief propagation and inference

Through faith, constantly adjust the root node prior
probability of conditional probability, and severe degree of
probability achieve the Bayesian network function. This study
is based on statistical inference. Suppose the prior distribution
is Dirichlet distribution that the subsequent distribution is
Dirichlet distribution, which is also Dirichlet distribution of
conjugate distribution. Hypothesis test samples N
(N1,N2,N3),k(k=1,2,3) Check expectations:
E(i|,N)=

Figure 1 is the FMEA model multilevel structure.

i + Ni
3

(
i =1

991

+ Ni )

(7)

confirmed permeability index of the failure probability CFE.

Further proof of Bayesian network in the diagnosis of fault
diagnosis is feasible for the blast furnace condition, abnormal
operating instructions, as shown in table 2.

Identify new prior probability, conditional probability

and severe degree of probability distribution list, then use a
Bayesian network for statistical inference.
ACTUAL APPLICATION

IV.

TABLE 2

Blast furnace condition can be divided into several bin fault

phenomena: difficult, collapse, pipe, Material SuBian slow,
permeability, material, ruler, permeability, high temperature
fluctuations in high permeability, Wind up, down, air
temperature rising wind, wave fluctuations in temperature, air,
all high, wind, air rises, etc. The structure is shown in figure2
In the blast furnace condition for fault diagnosis of suspension
material. The blast furnace condition of FMEA analysis data
preliminary established its local CFE type Bayesian network
diagnosis .As shown in figure 1 , is used in collapse, pipe
stroke as well as the common fault. Figure 2 is CFE type
Bayesian network structure

A normal operation instruction. Smelted in induction

Smelted in
induction
anomalies
Hot line
Cold line

Suspended
material

Collapse material

Piping

Operation Suggestions

Reduce injection quantity, Increasing air, Reduce wind

temperature, Feeding speed increase, Increase the load
Improve wind temperature, Increased injection quantity,
Reduce feeding speed
Minus 10-20% of wind, If the temperature enough, can
reduce injection quantity, If the invalid, let in fresh air
sit
The pipe materials: change cloth Angle collapses,
Change the atmospheric pressure, let in fresh air sit
Material: change under normal pipeline collapse, stop
blowing, Depending on the temperature condition,
reduce wind temperature, Reducing coke load, If the
invalid, XiuFeng, blocking part draught
Reduce the temperature condition, reduce wind
temperature, Limit furnace head pressure loss

V.

Figure 2

CFE type Bayesian network structure

In the actual use of the blast furnace condition suspended

material fault diagnosis. Blast furnace condition suspended
material failure usually causes various fault influence of
performance. On-site measuring the pressure differential rate
than 7%, permeability exponential decline rate than 10%, air
pressure is greater than2.9%, cold flow rate of descent than
2.0%, and we put the affect of fault diagnosis information into
the Bayesian network CFE type. By the Bayesian formula
reasoning, we can get the fault layer each node of the posteriori
probability value, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
Probability
type
CFE Network
output

Fault diagnosis results probability type

PF1
0.56

PF2
0.79

PF3
0.03

CONCLUSIONS

The reasoning model smelted in induction diagnosis expert

system is an important part of the blast furnace, only in the
line of the stability condition of blast furnace smelting process
can optimize the prediction and control. The Bayesian
networks is applied to the failure mode and effect analysis
(FMEA), was proposed based on fault reasons - failure mode fault diagnosis influence of Bayesian network topology
structure, namely the CFE type Bayesian network. To solve
the diagnosis of FMEA analysis object cannot quantitative
description of the occurrence probability of fault model.
Examples show that it is effective to use a priori information,
fault diagnosis based on Bayesian network inference decision
that accords with the actual fault mode, and can effectively to
practical blast.
Using the Bayesian network model for blast furnace fault
diagnosis by causality diagram, the relationship between the
forms of expression variables, the analysis of complex system,
With Bayesian network for complex system FMEA, can mix
various sources of information, the uncertainty reasoning
conditions, the effective information gain, Concurrent various
reasonable reasoning, solve the conflict
In "matching" and "combination explosion", greatly
strengthened the ability of fault diagnosis, improve the
credibility of the fault diagnosis.

PF4
0.12

From the table 1, under the condition of the input fault visible
effect information, permeability index and suspension of
material and collapse probability value 0.97 above all lingnan
fault rate differential pressure and hot probability value 0.56
probability values and air cooling flow rate of descent 0.03
failure probability value 0.12. Through the field measured and

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