Statistics II

Exercises Lesson 0
Academic year 2013/14

Solutions

1. A company is estimating the costs to complete a project, that are divided into two groups: a fixed
cost of 48000 euros and a variable cost of 6500 euros per month of project duration.
The duration of the project is not known in advance, but the company estimates that it may vary
between 3 and 6 months, with probabilities given in the following table:
Duration (D)
Probability

3
0.2

4
0.3

5
0.25

6
0.25

Calculate:
a) The probability function for the total cost of the project.
b) The expected value of the total cost.
c) Its variance and standard deviation.
d ) The probability that the cost will exceed 80000 euros
Solution.
a) The total cost is given by C = 48000 + 6500D, where D denotes the project duration. The
possible values of C as a function of D, and their probabilities, are
67500 74000
0.2
0.3
P
b) The expected value can be obtained as i xi pi ,
Cost (C)
Probability

80500
0.25

87000
0.25

E[C] = 67500 0,2 + 74000 0,3 + 80500 0,25 + 87000 0,25 = 77575
c) To obtain the variance we use the formula

x2i pi E[X]2 ,

Var[C] = 675002 0,2 + 740002 0,3 + 805002 0,25 + 870002 0,25 775752 = 48481875
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance,
p
[C] = Var[C] = 6962, 89
d ) From the cost values and their probabilities, the requested probability value is
P (C > 80000) = P (C = 80500) + P (C = 87000) = 0,25 + 0,25 = 0,5
2. A company makes nuts and bolts that are sold in packages with a number of nuts and bolts in each
package that follows the distribution given in the table below:
Number (N )
Probability

98
0.1

99
0.2

100
0.4

101
0.15

102
0.15

Calculate:
a) The probability that a package contains less than 100 nuts and bolts.
b) If two packages are selected randomly, which is the probability that at least one of them will
contain less than 100 nuts and bolts?
c) Compute the mean and the standard deviation for the number of nuts and bolts in a package.
d ) If manufacturing one package has a fixed cost of 0,4 euros and a variable cost of 0,005 euros
per each nut and bolt, and the sales price is 1,2 euros, which is the expected value for the
profit of selling one package? And its standard deviation?
1

Solution.
a) The requested probability can be obtained as
P (N < 100) = P (N = 98) + P (N = 99) = 0,1 + 0,2 = 0,3
b) This probability could be computed taking into account that it corresponds to a binomial
random variable with parameters n = 2 and p = P (N < 100), or alternatively if N P denotes
the variable corresponding to the number of packages with less than 100 nuts and bolts,
P (N P 1) = 1 P (N P = 0) = 1 P (N 100)2 = 1 (1 0,3)2 = 0,51
c) We obtain the required values using the standard formulas,
X
E[N ] =
xi pi = 98 0,1 + 99 0,2 + 100 0,4 + 101 0,15 + 102 0,15
i

=
Var[N ]

100,05
X
=
x2i pi E[X]2 = 982 0,1 + 992 0,2 + 1002 0,4 + 1012 0,15
i

[N ]

+ 1022 0,15 100,052 = 1,3475

p
Var[N ] = 1,161

d ) The profit per package B can be written as a function of N as B = 1,2 0,4 0,005N =
0,8 0,005N . As a consequence, the distribution of B is given by
Beneficio (B)
Probabilidad

0.31
0.1

0.305
0.2

0.3
0.4

0.295
0.15

0.29
0.15

For this distribution we repeat the computations for the expected value and the standard
deviation to obtain
X
E[B] =
xi pi = 0,31 0,1 + 0,305 0,2 + 0,3 0,4 + 0,295 0,15 + 0,29 0,15
i

=
Var[B]

0,29975
X
=
x2i pi E[X]2 = 0,312 0,1 + 0,3052 0,2 + 0,32 0,4 + 0,2952 0,15
i

[B]

+ 0,292 0,15 0,299752 = 3,37 105

p
Var[B] = 0,0058
=

3. The demand for a given product the coming month can be approximated as a normal random
variable with mean 850 units and standard deviation equal to 75 units.
Calculate:
a) The probability that the demand during the coming month will be less than 800 units.
b) The probability that the demand will be a value between 825 and 925 units.
c) If the unit profit for each unit sold is 2 euros and the number of units sold is equal to the
demand, which is the expected value of the total profit? What is the variance of the total
profit?
d ) What is the probability that the total profit will exceed 1500 euros?
e) Which is the value of the total profit that has a probability of being exceeded equal to 10 %?
Solution.
a) The value of the requested probability can be obtained from the tables standarizing the variable
D (the random demand) as shown


D
800 850
P (D < 800) = P
<
= P (Z < 0,667) = 1 P (Z 0,667) = 0,2525

75
where Z denotes a standard normal random variable.
2

b) Similarly for this case,



P (825 D 925)

825 850
D
925 850
= P

75

75
= P (Z 1) P (Z < 0,33) = 0,472


= P (0,33 Z 1)

c) The profit B is related to the demand as B = 2D. Thus, B is a normal random variable with
mean and variance given by
E[B] = E[2D] = 2E[D] = 1700,

Var[B] = Var[2D] = 4Var[D] = 4 752 = 22500

d ) The standard deviation for the profit is 150 (twice that of the demand) and


1500 1700
B
>
= P (Z > 1,33) = 0,9088
P (B > 1500) = P

150
e) We are requested to find a value b such that P (B > b) = 0,1. Standardizing, we must find a
value satisfying
!
!
b 1700
b 1700
B

0,1 = P (B > b) = P
>
=P Z>

150
150

b 1700
= 1,2816 b = 1700 + 150 1,2816 = 1892,23
150

where the value 1,2816 has been obtained from the tables as the one leaving to its right a
probability equal to 0,1
4. A company purchases a commodity from two suppliers. The level of defective product in the deliveries from both suppliers is assumed to follow normal distributions with parameteres gien in the
following table:
Mean
4,6
5,1

Supplier 1
Supplier 2

Variance
0,49
0,16

a) If the company wishes to have just one supplier, the one providing deliveries with the highest
probability of having a level of defective product smaller than 5.5, which provider should be
chosen?
b) If the costs for the company to process each delivery are proportional to the level of defective
product N , according to the expression 25 + 3N , what is the expected value of this processing
cost for each of the suppliers? And the standard deviation?
Solution.
a) To answer this question we must compute the probability requested for each of the suppliers,
as




Ni i
5,5 i
5,5 i
P (Ni < 5,5) = P
<
=P Z<
,
i
i
i
and for the values we are given (computing the standard deviations from the variance values)


5,5 4,6
P (N1 < 5,5) = P Z <
= P (Z < 1,2857) = 0,9007
0,7


5,5 5,1
P (N2 < 5,5) = P Z <
= P (Z < 1) = 0,8413
0,4
We would select the first supplier.

b) In this case we must compute values corresponding to the random variables Ci = 25 + 3Ni .
For both suppliers we have,
E[C1 ]

Var[C1 ]

[C1 ]

E[25 + 3N1 ] = 25 + 3E[N1 ] = 25 + 3 4,6 = 38,8

Var[25 + 3N1 ] = 32 Var[N1 ] = 9 0,49 = 4,41

p
=
Var[C1 ] = 2,1

E[C2 ]

E[25 + 3N2 ] = 25 + 3E[N2 ] = 25 + 3 5,1 = 40,3

Var[C2 ]

[C2 ]

Var[25 + 3N2 ] = 32 Var[N2 ] = 9 0,16 = 1,44

p
Var[C2 ] = 1,2

Alternatively, we have [Ci ] = [25 + 3Ni ] = 3[Ni ].

5. The housing price for new houses of a certain size in a given city is assumed to follow a normal
distribution with mean 230.000 euros and standard deviation 55.000 euros. We have obtained a
(simple) random sample of 64 housing prices for new houses in the city.
Calculate:
a) The probability that the sample mean for the prices will be larger than 240.000 euros
b) The probability that the sample mean will take a value between 220.000 and 235.000 euros
c) If the sample size would increase to 100 prices while the remaining values would stay unchanged,
how would the answers to the preceding questions change?
Solution.
a) Note first that as the housing prices follow a N (230, 55) distribution (with
values given in thousands of euros), the distribution of the sample mean will be N (230, 55/ 64) = N (230, 6,875).
From this distribution we obtain the requested probability as



240 230
> 240) = P X
>
P (X
= P (Z > 1,45) = 0,0735
6,875
/ n
b) For the second probability we have
235)
P (220 X



220 230
X
235 230

P

6,875
6,875
/ n
P (1,45 Z 0,727) = 0,6929


=
=

c) In this case the distribution of the sample mean is now N (230, 55/ 100) = N (230, 5,5) and
the preceding values change to


X
240 230

>
P (X > 240) = P
= P (Z > 1,8182) = 0,0345
5,5
/ n



220 230
X
235 230

P (220 X 235) = P

5,5
5,5
/ n
= P (1,8182 Z 0,9091) = 0,7838
6. The grades in a subject with a large number of enrolled students are assumed to follow a normal
distribution with mean equal to 6.7 and standard deviation 1.5.
Calculate:
a) The proportion of students with grades higher than 5.
b) The minimum grade required to be above the 20 % of students with lowest grades.
c) For a group of 36 students (whose grades we assume are a simple random sample), which is
the probability that the mean grade for the group is larger than 7?

d ) Consider now the mean grades for two groups of 36 and 25 students respectively (whose grades
are assumed to be independent and each group are assumed to be simple random samples).
Which is the probability that the difference between the mean grade for the first group and
the mean grade for the second group is larger than 0.5?
Solution.
a) The requested proportion can be obtained as the probability that the grade is larger than 5,
when these grades N follow a distribution N (6,7, 1,5). We have


N
5 6,7
P (N > 5) = P
>
= P (Z > 1,133) = 0,8715

1,5
b) We can answer this question by computing a value n
such that it leaves 20 % of the students
with grades smaller than n
. We have




N
n
6,7
n
6,7
0,2 = P (N < n
) = P
<
=P Z<

1,5
1,5
n
6,7

= 0,8416 n
= 6,7 + 1,5 (0,8416) = 5,4376
1,5
c) For this item we need the distribution of the mean grade for the group. Under the hypotheses of
the problem
of the grades, simple random sample) it follows a distribution

(normal distribution
N (, / n) = N (6,7, 1,5/ 36) = N (6,7, 0,25). For this distribution we obtain


N
7 6,7

>
P (N > 7) = P
= P (Z > 1,2) = 0,115
0,25
/ n
1 N
2 , the difference
d ) We are asked now for a probability associated with the random variable N
between the mean grades for both groups. We need to know the distribution of this random
1 and N
2 are normal, their difference will also be normal, and its
variable. As both variables N
parameters will take the values (we use the independence between the variables)
1 N
2 ]
E[N

1 ] E[N
2 ] = 6,7 6,7 = 0
E[N
2
2
1 N
2 ] = Var[N
1 ] + Var[N
2 ] = 1,5 + 1,5 = 0,1525
Var[N
36
25
q

[N1 N2 ] =
Var[N1 N2 ] = 0,3905
=

From these values the requested probability is



2
N1 N
0,5 0

P (N1 N2 > 0,5) = P

>
= P (Z > 1,28) = 0,1002

0,3905
7. A degree offered in a University has 750 registered students. Out of them, 120 take their notebook
to class on a regular basis. A simple random sample of 121 students from the degree is selected.
Calculate:
a) The standard deviation of the proportion of students in the sample that take their notebook
regularly to class.
b) The probability that the proportion of students in the sample taking their notebook to class
is smaller than 0.2
c) If during the next semester it is observed that the number of students taking the degree and
carrying the notebook to class regularly has increased to 180, what would be the modified
answers to the preceding questions?
Solution.
a) Let p denote the proportion in the sample of students taking the notebook to class on a regular
basis. We are asked for the value of [
p]. We know that, as we have a simple random sample,
#
" n
1
1
1X
Xi = Var[Xi ] = p(1 p)
Var[
p] = Var
n i=1
n
n
5

where Xi is a Bernoulli random variable taking the value 1 if a given student takes her notebook
regularly to class. This random variable has a probability p of being equal to one, and its
variance is p(1 p).
From the data we have, the parameter for the Bernoulli distribution takes the value p =
120/750 = 0,16, and the requested standard deviation will be
r
r
p(1 p)
0,16 0,84
[
p] =
=
= 0,033
n
121
b) If we now apply the central limit theorem, taking
into account that the sample size is reasonably
p
large, we have that p will follow a N (p, p(1 p)/n) distribution, and the probability of
interest will be given by
!
0,2 0,16
p p
<
P (
p < 0,2) = P p
= P (Z < 1,2) = 0,885
0,033
p(1 p)/n
c) Now the parameter p takes the value p = 180/750 = 0,24, and applying again the preceding
formulas we obtain
r
r
p(1 p)
0,24 0,76
[
p] =
=
= 0,0388
n
121
!
p p
0,2 0,24
P (
p < 0,2) = P p
= P (Z < 1,03) = 0,1515
<
0,0388
p(1 p)/n
8. In a company it has been observed that 15 % of its payments due are delayed more than one month.
If a simple random sample of 64 payments due is taken, you are asked to calculate:
a) The probability that the sample includes at least 5 payments delayed more than one month.
b) The probability that the number of delayed payments is between 4 and 10.
c) What is the probability that the proportion of delayed payments in the sample is less than
16 %?
Solution.
a) In this case we associate a Bernoulli random variable to the situation where a specific payment
is delayed over one month. The parameter for this random variable is p = 0,15. The number
of delayed payments in the sample, Pd , will follow a binomial distribution with parameters
n = 64 and p = 0,15. The first probability could be computed as

4
4 
X
X
64
P (Pd < 5) =
P (Pd = k) =
0,15k (1 0,15)64k
k
k=0

k=0

This computation is quite tedious. It may be worth using in this case an approximation based on
the central limit theorem, assuming the sample is large enough. We have that Pd /n corresponds
to the average of the corresponding Bernoulli random variables, and an approximation is
p
Pd
N (p, p(1 p)/n) = N (0,15, 0,0446)
n
Thus,
P (Pd < 5) = P (Pd /64 < 5/64) = P

P /64 p
0,078 0,15
pd
<
0,0446
p(1 p)/n

!
= P (Z < 1,61) = 0,0537

b) Using the same approximation to answer the next question we have

P (4 Pd 10)

= P (4/64 Pd /64 10/64)

= P
=

0,0625 0,15
Pd /64 p
0,15625 0,15
p

0,0446
0,0446
p(1 p)/n

P (1,96 Z 0,14) = 0,5307

6

c) For this last question we apply again the preceding results, but we use them directly on Pd /n.
We obtain
!
0,16 0,15
Pd /64 p

= P (Z < 0,224) = 0,5886

P (Pd /64 < 0,16) = P p
0,0446
p(1 p)/n