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Introduction
PROSPECTOR: Conclusions
PROSPECTOR: An Introduction
Problem domain:
• Evaluation of the mineral potential of a geological site or region
Target Users:
Exploration geologist who is in the early part of investigating an
exploration site or "prospect"
Originators
R. Duda, P. E.Hart, N.J. Nilsson, R. Reboh, J. Slocum, and G. Sutherland
and John Gasching (1974-1983)
Artificial Intelligence Center,
Stanford Research Institute (SRI) International
Menlo Park,
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California, USA
References:
Waterman A., Donald., (1986), "A Guide to Expert Systems". Reading,
Mass (USA).
Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. pp 49-60
Barr, Aaron & Feigenbaum, Edward., (1982) "The Handbook of Artificial
Intelligence".
Reading, Mass (USA). Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. pp 155-162
PROSPECTOR: An Introduction
• attempts to represent the knowledge and reasoning processes of experts in the geological domain
• intended user is an exploration geologist in the early stages of investigating a possible drilling site
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PROSPECTOR
• it matches data from a site against models describing regional and local characteristics favourable for
specific ore deposits
PROSPECTOR At Work
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PROSPECTOR system contains rules linking observed evidence, 'E'. of the particular (geological) findings
with hypotheses, 'H', implied by the evidence:
LS and LN are prestored (ranging from +5 to -5) and do not change during the execution of the program.
Also, each piece of evidence (E1,E2, E3..) and hypotheses (H1...) has a probability assigned to it (P1,P2..)
whichmay change during execution according to Baye's Theorem.
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Static Data
In addition to the PROSPECTOR rule-base, the system also has a large taxonomic network: A 'hierarchical'
data-base containing super- and sub-ordinate relationships between the objects of the domain.
Semantic networks: Quillian (1966) introduced the idea of semantic networks based on the so-called
"associative memory model": the notion that human memory is organized on the basis of association, that
humans represent the real-world through a series of associations. More precisely a semantic network is
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defined as a type of knowledge representation that formalises objects and values as nodes and connects the
nodes with arcs or links that indicate the relationships between the various nodes: A data structure for
representing declarative knowledge. It can be argued that the nodes can also represent concepts, and the arcs
the relations between concepts, thereby forming semantic networks.Quillian has pointed out the "type-token"
distinction. This may be related to the generic/specific relationship.
Probablistic Reasoning
ODDS = PROBABILITY
(1-PROBABILITY)
Definition
P(h) = LS x P(h)
Probablistic Reasoning
Definition
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LN = measure of necessity
LN = P(not e|h)
P(not e| not.h)
PROSPECTOR: Conclusions
• the conclusions drawn by the PROSPECTOR system match those of the expert who designed the system to
within 7% on a scale used to represent the validity of the conclusions
• work on the system illustrated the importance of accommodating the special characteristics of a domain if
the system is intended for practical use - all domains have their own peculiarities in how decisions are made
expert's personal probability, P(h), reflects his/her belief in h at any given time
therefore, 1 - P(h) can be viewed as an estimate of the expert's disbelief regarding the
truth of h.
• Measure of Belief: If P[h ¦ e] is greater than P(h), the observation of 'e' increases the
expert's belief in 'h' while decreasing disbelief in h. Proportionate decrease in disbelief (
alternatively, the measure of belief increment) due to the observation 'e' is
P(h y e) - P(h)
MB[h ,e] = --------------------------
1 - P(h)
• Measure of Disbelief: If P[h ye] is less than P(h), the observation of 'e' decreases the
expert's belief in 'h' while increasing disbelief in h. Proportionate decrease in belief (
alternatively, the measure of disbelief increment) due to observation 'e' is:
P(h ) - P(h y e)
MD[h ,e] = --------------------------
P(h)
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• Because a given piece of evidence cannot support both belief and disbelief, therefore
MYCIN: Each rule is associated with a number between 0 and 1 (CF, the 'cretainity factor') representing
certainity of the inference contained in the rule: MYCIN combines several sources of inconclusive
information to form a conclusion of which it may be almost certain. Ad-hoc appraoch to probability
PROSPECTOR: Confidence measures (LS,LN)are interpreted precisely as as probabilities and Bayes' rule
is used as the basis of inference procedure.
XCON: In XCON's task domain it is possible to state exactly the correct thing to be done in each particular
set of circumstances. Probablistic information is not neccessary.
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