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PLANNING BILL - PVBS

PART NO
12-720
24-720
1-720
34-720
1-420
TOTAL
DAYS
UNITS/DAY
TOTAL
DAYS
UNITS/DAY

Q1 UNIT SALQ II UNIT SAL Q III UNIT SA Q IV UNIT S RAW %


PLAN BILL
4311
6637
7823
6652
8.7%
10214
20983
27492
19535
26.7%
13851
31507
66644
17337
44.2%
7397
9043
11233
7496
12.0%
3609
7049
9676
3976
8.3%
39382
64
615

75219
65
1157

122868
64
1920

54996
63
873
292465

FORECAST 12-Month DEMAND

FORECAST MASTER AS OF OCTOBER 7,2004


WILKINS REGULATOR DIVISION UNIT SALES PER WEEK BY QUARTER
PROD LINEFISCAL YEAQ I
PVB
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

FIRE VALVEFISCAL YEAQ I


1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Q II
1788
2097
2116
2352
2721
3029

Q III
3748
4008
3523
4092
4449
5786

Q II
36
47
21
36
42
22

Q IV
5115
5532
5921
6824
7184
9451

Q III
43
32
45
38
27
26

3167
3123
3374
3968
4531
4231

Q IV
18
34
19
28
25
28

YEAR TOTAL
179634
191880
194142
224068
245505
292461

YEAR TOTAL
13
1430
24
1781
38
1599
43
1885
11
1365
29
1365

EAR TOTAL

EAR TOTAL

SALES HISTORY 2001-2004


Year

Qtr

PVB Total
1
27512
2
45798
3
76968
4
43858
1
30580
2
53198
3
88704
4
51590
1
35372
2
57840
3
93388
4
58906
1
39382
2
75219
3
122868
4
54996

2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004

Year

Qtr
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004

Fire Valve Total


1
270
2
590
3
252
4
497
1
464
2
495
3
370
4
567
1
541
2
351
3
331
4
137
1
285
2
344
3
360
4
382

140000
120000
100000
80000

Qtr
PVB Total

60000

Linear (PVB Total)

40000
20000
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

PVB
Trend
Use Trend corrected holts method to forecast demand for 2005 quarter 1
Compare the obtained value with actual sales given
The error if less than method used previously then this method is better

Also find value of value for each quarter using the formula and compare it with actual sales

otal

r (PVB Total)

700
600
500
400

Qtr
Fire Valve Total

300

Linear (Fire Valve Total)

200
100
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Fire Valve
Trend and Seasonality
Use Trend and seasonality corrected holts method to forecast demand for 2005 quarter 1
Compare the obtained value with actual sales given
The error if less than method used previously then this method is better

mpare it with actual sales data for both the products

ve Total

Fire Valve Total)

mand for 2005 quarter 1

Assuming
Alpha
Beta
Gamma

values
0<alpha<1
0<beta<1
0<gamma<

0.2
0.1
0.25

Holtz-winters forecas
Alpha*(Current Sales - Last year season Factor)*+(1-alpha)
beta*(This quarter base level - Prior week base level)+(1-b
Gamma*(this quarter sale - this quarter base level) + (1-g
Seasonal factor

Year

Period
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010

Qtr
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

Sales/(avg of one quarter sale)

PVB Total Base Level TREND CoSeasonal Forecast


1
27512
-21022
2
45798
-2736
3
76968
28434
4
43858
48534
0
-4676
1
30580
49147.6
61.36 -20408.4
2
53198 50553.968 195.8608 -1390.992
3
88704 52653.863 386.2642 30338.03
4
51590 53685.3018 450.7817 -4030.825
1
35372 54464.9468 483.668 -20079.54
2
57840 55805.0902 569.3156 -534.5166
3
93388 57709.5178 702.8268 31673.15
4
58906 59317.2407 793.3164 -3125.929
1
39382 59980.753 780.336 -20209.34
2
75219 63759.5745 1080.185 2463.969
3
122868 70110.778 1607.286 36944.17
4
54996 68998.8373 1335.364 -5845.156
1
49925.801
2
70278.573
3
103342.96
4
70309.467
1
55596.119
2
76476.503
3
110019.53
4
76555.818
1
60807.77
2
84816.443
3
120632
4
79178.046
1
86358.566
2
87693.929
3
89029.293
4
90364.657
1
91700.02
2
93035.384
3
94370.748
4
95706.111
1
97041.475

2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

98376.839
99712.203
101047.57
102382.93
103718.29
105053.66
106389.02
107724.38
109059.75
110395.11
111730.48
113065.84
114401.2
115736.57
117071.93
118407.29
119742.66
121078.02
122413.39
123748.75
125084.11
126419.48
127754.84
129090.2
130425.57
131760.93
133096.3
134431.66
135767.02
137102.39
138437.75
139773.11
141108.48
142443.84
143779.2
145114.57
146449.93
147785.3
149120.66
150456.02
151791.39
153126.75
154462.11

oltz-winters forecasting method


on Factor)*+(1-alpha)*(Prior quarter base level + Prior Quarter seasonal factor)
week base level)+(1-beta)*prior quarter trend
ter base level) + (1-gamma*(last years seasonal factor)

one quarter sale)

140000
120000
100000
80000

Qtr

PVB Total

60000

Linear (P

40000
20000
0
1

Forecasting

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Qtr
PVB Total
Linear (PVB Total)

14 15 16