BARRIOS, ROSHEEN BELLE R.

ESE150 / C1

SUMMARY
Climate Change May Increase the Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
(June 04, 2013 Article)
Analysis has suggested that changes in the atmosphere will lead to more frequent
conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms. According to recent studies there will be more
damaging winds related to thunderstorms. The number of tornadoes and large hail is expected to
remain at the same level as today.
Climate model simulations suggest that on average, as the surface temperature and
moisture increases the conditions for thunderstorms becomes more frequent. Climate change
decreases temperature difference between the poles and the equator. This leads to a decrease in
vertical wind shear, which is a major factor determining what type of severe weather occurs.
These expectations are supported by a majority of the climate model simulations that have
looked at the variables.

However risks of tornadoes and hail are still open to many questions. The small scale of
severe thunderstorms makes it difficult to deal with them with global models. The estimations of
their occurrence in the future climate is based on the occurrence of their favorable environments
in climate model simulations.

"According to latest research the intensity of tornadoes will not increase, therefore
incidents like in Oklahoma are not expected to be more frequent than today," said Harold
Brooks, who is one of the most well-known researchers of severe thunderstorms from National
Severe Storms Laboratory, USA.

"Most of the research on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in climate change has
focused on the USA and it is unclear how well the lessons learned there apply to the rest of the
world," Brooks concluded.

Thunderstorms cause the most severe damage in Finland

Most severe weather incidents in Finland are caused by phenomena related to

thunderstorms such as lightning, strong wind gusts, hail and tornadoes. On average one person is
killed every second year because of a lightning strike. Thunderstorms can cause also severe
damage to the property because of falling trees and strong winds. On average, about 14 cases of
tornadoes are reported in Finland annually. Most of them are quite weak but also some
significant cases have been reported in history.

"As climate models are being developed, we are beginning to get more accurate
information about the impacts of climate change to severe weather incidents in areas like
Finland," says meteorologist Pauli Jokinen from Finnish Meteorological Institute.

REACTION

Based on the written article analysis has suggested that changes in the
atmosphere will lead to more frequent conditions favorable for severe
thunderstorms. I think this is one way of telling us that as our climate changes and
the atmosphere changes, we are more frequent to these environmental disasters.
As a student, studying environmental science, my reaction to this is that this
changes we experienced were not only from the conditions of the environment
itself but also from the actions done by the people. These risks will more likely
affect us the most. There will be changes in weather conditions and this could
change our lifestyle.

For me, the best way we could prevent this is to be more knowledgeable of
our environmental conditions. The more we know about it, the more we could do
to prevent it.