Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Andreas W. Bett
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar
Energy Systems ISE
Solar 2050 Workshop
Imperial College London
27th January 2014
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
Fraunhofer ISE
Outline
2
Fraunhofer ISE
Photovoltaics
Standard PV and Concentrating PV
Standard PV
Light collection
and conversion
is one unit
Concentrating PV
Light collection
collection area
separated
from
FLATCON-Module
developed at ISE
Light conversion
cell area
Functional decoupling of
Solar radiation
optics
Acollection
Acollection
Aconversion
solar cell
Semiconductor (conversion
area) is expensive
Option for low cost on
/kWh-level even when
using high-efficiency solar
cells
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Fraunhofer ISE
Aconversion
heat spreader
5
Fraunhofer ISE
Efficiency [%]
40
30
20
10
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Graphic: Fraunhofer ISE; Data for solar cell efficiencies: Green et al. Progress in
Photovoltaics (1993-2013)
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Fraunhofer ISE
40
Sharp
44.4% @ 302x
42.3 % @ 406x
Spectrolab
41.6 % @ 364x
Efficiency [%]
30
20
10
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Graphic: Fraunhofer ISE; Data for solar cell efficiencies: Green et al. Progress in
Photovoltaics (1993-2013)
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Fraunhofer ISE
Si
1600
AM1.5 spectrum
Si (1.12 eV)
1400
Thermalization losses
1200
1000
800
600
Transmission losses
400
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Wavelength [nm]
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Fraunhofer ISE
2500
Ge
Si
1600
AM1.5 spectrum
Si (1.12 eV)
1400
Thermalization losses
1200
1000
800
600
Transmission losses
400
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Wavelength [nm]
10
Fraunhofer ISE
2500
GaInP
GaInAs
1600
AM1.5 spectrum
GaInP (1.87 eV)
GaInAs (1.44 eV)
Ge (0.67 eV)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Wavelength [nm]
2500
19 layers
ARC
n -AlInP - window layer
n-GaInP - emitter
GaInP - undoped layer
cap layer
p-GaInP - base
1.9 eV
doping levels:
5*1016 2*1020 cm-3
GaInP
thicknesses:
0.02 4.0 m
layer compositions:
tunnel diode
GaInAs
binary quaternary
As/P hetero-interfaces
tunnel diode
eV
Ge
0.7 eV
rear contact
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Fraunhofer ISE
FF [%]
90
85
80
75
lot12-01-x17y04
VOC [V]
Eff. [%]
45
40
35
4.4
GaInP 1.9 eV
GaAs1.4 eV
4.0
Bonding
3.6
3.2
1
10
100
GaInAsP 1.0 eV
1000
GaInAs 0.7 eV
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Fraunhofer ISE
CPV Systems
Basis for High Energy Yield of the System
Reported AC system
efficiencies:
25 27 %
Efficiency [%]
40
30
20
10
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Graphic: Fraunhofer ISE; Data for solar cell efficiencies: Green et al. Progress in
Photovoltaics (1993-2013)
13
Fraunhofer ISE
CPV Systems
Basis for High Energy Yield of the System
Reported AC system
efficiencies:
25 27 %
Amonix
Soitec
Suncore
Suntrix
Efficiency [%]
Abengoa
40
30
20
10
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Graphic: Fraunhofer ISE; Data for solar cell efficiencies: Green et al. Progress in
Photovoltaics (1993-2013)
14
Fraunhofer ISE
AC system efficiency:
~ 26% (28 %)
16
Fraunhofer ISE
A CPV system
Optics
Industrial
manufacturing
Cell
Module
Tracking
BOS
18
Fraunhofer ISE
www.daido.co.jp
Technology Principle A
Large Collector and Receiver Area
Central
receiver
Concentrator
Diverse applications
Industrial process heating
Solar desalination + solar cooling
Thermal load
Tracker
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Fraunhofer ISE
+
Electric load
Technology Principle B
Small-sized Fresnel Lense combined with tiny Solar Cells
This system approach is based on passive cooling for the solar cells
Covers > 95 % of the market!
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Fraunhofer ISE
2.7
4.1
5.5
6.8
kWh/m/d
before:
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Fraunhofer ISE
Suncore
3 MWp in operation,
50 MWp under construction
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Fraunhofer ISE
140
120
100
80
60
40
25
Fraunhofer ISE
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
20
2002
160
Yearly installed
800.0
700.0
M
W
p
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
2006
HCPV History & Low Forecast 0.7
HCPV Conservative Forecast
HCPV Accelerated Forecast
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Fraunhofer ISE
2007
9.5
2008
2.8
2009
5.0
2010
11.2
2011
62.0
2012
61.8
103.0
123.6
2013
100.3
250.8
551.7
2014
147.5
442.5
663.8
2015
181.5
577.5
841.5
2016
263.3
649.4
930.2
LCOE [Euro2013/kWh]
CSP
CPV
PV
Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Studie: Stromgestehungskosten Erneuerbare Energien, Nov. 2013; english version under preparation
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Fraunhofer ISE
~ 7 years
2012
2005
2.335 W
30% efficiency
90 W module
27% efficiency
25 W module
22% efficiency
manual manufacturing
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Fraunhofer ISE
industrial manufacturing
30
Fraunhofer ISE
120 modules
Tracker
Inverter, BOS
1.
2.
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Fraunhofer ISE
Cell
9,4%
SCA
11,6%
Tracker
35,1%
Base plate
16,8%
5 400 MJ
Module
11,0%
Lens plate
5,0%
EPBT ~ 11 months
1/3 of Si flat plate installations!
30 g/kWh CO2-eq
Taken from: R. Matzer et al, Proc. 6th Int. Workshop: Advances in Energy Studies, 2008, 369-78
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Fraunhofer ISE
Summary
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Fraunhofer ISE
Acknowledgement
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Fraunhofer ISE