As if oil doesn't have enough room to run, the CSU hurricane forecast for 2008 is stormy.

BAHAMAS - The Colorado State University forecast team upgraded its early season forecast
today from the Bahamas Weather Conference, saying the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely
experience a well above- average hurricane season.
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin
hurricane season," said William Gray, who is beginning his 25th year forecasting hurricanes at
Colorado State University.
The team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between
June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight,
four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5)
with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9
hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
The entire report is available on the Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu .
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S.
coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil
Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "We are calling for a very active
hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. The
current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic - prevalent in most years since 1995 - is
a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Warm sea surface temperatures are
likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2008 because of a
positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Also, the currently observed weak
Azores High will likely promote weaker-than-normal trade winds over the next few months
enhancing warm SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
Additionally, the team expects neutral or weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, which,
combined with a predicted warm north and tropical Atlantic, is a recipe for enhanced Atlantic
basin hurricane activity. These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1950,
1989, 1999, and 2000 seasons. The average of these four seasons had well above-average
activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2008 season will have activity in line with the
average of these four years.
The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2008 will be 160 percent of the
average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275
percent of the average season.
The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on
U.S. soil:
- A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline

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in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

- A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast,
including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)
- A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the
Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long- term average is 30 percent).
The team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
"The United States was quite fortunate over the last two years in that we had only one hurricane
landfall (Humberto - 2007)," Klotzbach said. "None of the four major hurricanes that formed in
2006 and 2007 made U.S. landfall."
The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has cautioned against reading too much into the
hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 when Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four
landfalling hurricanes each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused
devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.
"The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural bounds of hurricane
variation," Gray said.
Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring
at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are
listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall
probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline
from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane , is the first publicly accessible Internet tool that adjusts
landfall probabilities for regions, sub-regions and counties based on the current climate and its
projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray update the site
regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in
Massachusetts.
The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric
conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded
active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar
trends in future seasons.
The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on
June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. The August, September and October forecasts will include
separate forecasts for each of those months.
GRAY RESEARCH TEAM EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST
FOR 2008
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range (1950-2000 Climatology Averages Forecast for

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2008 in parentheses)
Named Storms (9.6)* 15
Named Storm Days (49.1) 80
Hurricanes (5.9) 8
Hurricane Days (24.5) 40
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) 4
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 9
Net Tropical Cyclone 160 Activity (100%)
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.
-The Cherry Creek News- Hurricanes predicted at well-above average - peak oil - oil prices

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