1

Analysis of the Results of the

Delhi Assembly Elections 2015
by P. Priyadarshi
premendra100@gmail.com

The BJP has been losing the NCT Delhi assembly elections consistently since 1998. It lost
the following elections in a row: 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015 securing almost the same
percentage of votes in all (between 36 and 32 percent). Hence there is nothing new for the
BJP state unit in the 2015 defeat. It has been their habitual performance but for a couple of
MCD and a Lok Sabha performances which did not fall in line with the assembly elections
trend. During this period, in fact the BJP consistently lost its share or the votes polled from
42.82% in 1993 to 32.20% in 2015. Between 1998 and 2015, the percentage of votes has
fluctuated within a narrow range of 36.3% and 32.2%.
If the Delhi BJP leaders covertly claim that the defeat had been due to the import of Kiran
Bedi as the Chief-Ministerial candidate, they are again trying to befool people. For the period
1993 to 2013, BJP had the poorest show in 2013 Assembly Elections when it had the lowest
percentage of votes (33.07%) then far. In spite of so much corruption by the Sheila Dikshits
State Government and the Congress Partys Central Government, the BJP had not improved
its percentage of votes in 2013. So what the analysts are saying today about 2015 results is
more of myth than reality.
Table showing the percentage of votes with seats for the various political parties since 1993
Delhi Assembly Elections (Source: Compiled from the data present over the Election
Commission of Indias web site)
Year/
% BJP
votes
(seats/70)
1993
42.82%
seats)
1998
35.82%
seats)
2003
35.22%
seats)
2008
36.34%
seats)
2013

2015

Congress

(49 34.48%
seats)
(15 47.76%
seats)
(20 48.13%
seats)
(23 40.31%
seats)

CPI/CPM/JD/RJD others

(14

12.65% JD 4 seats

(52 SAP 3.89%

7% (JD 1 seat)

5.53%

(47

0.25%

16.4%

(43 BSP
0.77%
14.05% (2
seats)
33.07% (31 24.55% (8 AAP
seats)
seats)
29.49% (28
seats)
32.20% (3 9.70% (zero AAP
seats)
seats)
54.30% (67
seats)

8.53%

Sectarian Vote Bank Analysis

12.98%

3.80%

The AAP this time has got less votes than what Congress/JD combine got in 1998, or equal to
what Congress votes and BSP votes aggregated together in 2008. BJPs votes have stays the
same hovering about 32-35%. A more prudent approach by BJP to achieving success could
have been to increase its share of votes by broadening its support base, rather than sticking to
its narrow, caste-vote-bank base.
Since 1993, under the vote bank politics, BJP had given tickets almost exclusively to Jat,
Bania, Punjabi and Gujjar candidates. This combination has never granted enough votes to
make the party capable of government formation in Delhi. BJP leadership thus far has
believed, although erroneously and arrogantly, that in Delhi only these four (Jat, Bania,
Punjabi, Gujjar) have the capacity to decide the elections fates. Yet many votes of these too
have always gone to Congress often because Congress also erected many of its candidates
from these castes.
On the other hand by 1998, the Congress exclusively started bagging the votes of
Bangladeshi immigrants, Backward (OBC) Bihari, and Scheduled Castes of all state origins
and Muslims. This was that segment of the voters that can be said to be the anti-BJP votes.
The OBC-Bihari votes being the supporters of Laloo was going to stay away from BJP as
long as Laloo was being opposed by BJP in Bihar. Up to 1993 elections, the Congress was
seen as anti-Laloo or anti-OBC-reservationist. This had kept the Bihari-OBC away from the
Congress. Hence in 1998, Janata Dal got 4 seats in Delhi Assembly with 12.65% votes. In
other constituencies in that election (1993), the Bihari-OBCs voted for the BJP, considering
Congress as the number one enemy of Laloo. This Bihari-OBC population constituted part of
the anti-Congress vote bank at that time. Hence BJP won in 1993 with 42.82% votes and 49
seats in Delhi Assembly.
But this OBC-Bihari vote bank which had gone to JD and BJP in 1993, was going to shift to
Congress soon by 1998, as soon as Laloo-Sonia or RJD-Congress formulated a firm alliance.
This alliance gave Congress a sufficient edge over the BJP not in Bihar but actually in Delhi
where it defeated BJP time and again and again. Now the new caste combination was going
to be a committed vote bank for the Congress party. From analysis of the shifting votes
between JD-Congress and BJP between 1993 and 1998, it becomes clear that that this vote
bank constituted about 21% of the voters of Delhi. By now it may have increases to 25% or
even more.
The upper-caste immigrants of Bihar living in Delhi, however, have been inimical to
Laloo/reservation (and hence its ally Congress party). They have voted for the BJP
dedicatedly even without being taken notice of any by the BJP between 1998 and 2015. Their
actual percentage is not known, But probably they constitute about 10% of votes.
This leaves only 22 to 26% of votes coming to the BJP from other than Bihar-voter sources
i.e. Jat, Bania, Gujjar and Punjabi. The least contribution is from the Gujjar and Punjabi and
most of it comes from the Bania community.
Thus among the Bihari population there is a diametrically opposite voting pattern, OBC
voting for Congress and the Upper Caste voting for the BJP. In spite of BJPs attempt at
wooing the backwards over the last 15 years by indulging in pro-reservation politics, the
backwards of Bihar are politically very conscious and would flock along the allies of the RJD
alone.

However when Sheila Dikshit made the infamous comment that the Biharis spread dirt in
Delhi, the Bihari vote banks self-esteem was attacked and it deserted the Congress. In this
way this vote bank found its way to the AAP. AAP was able to attract the Bihar votes of both
OBC and the Upper Caste, by giving tickets to several Bihari candidates in the 2015 election,
and unofficial estimate says that AAP has 15 Bihari MLAs in the new assembly. Only two
Biharis were given BJP tickets for the 2015 assembly elections. This was one of the main
reasons of the alienation of the Bihari voters from the BJP in 2015.
Nitin Gadkaris Atrocities and the Beginning of the Rise of Arwind Kejriwal

Arwind had done no heinous crime by calling Nitin Gadkari corrupt. Corrupt is a word of
very wide connotation in the Indian society and is considered only mildly abusive if applied
to any politician who had only recently to step down from the post of the Party President on
account of such charges. People are removed from their positions on account of corruption
charges only if there are seeds of truth at the prima facia level.
In the past, good, innocent and great people in public offices have been baselessly slurred
with abusive words like mass-murderers etc and they preferred to bear the pain and insult
internally than going to the courts of law for the redressal of their traumas suffered because of
such abusive slurs. And the people of India rewarded such people for their patience and
silence in the due course of time.
No doubt by pulling Arwind Kejriwal to the Court of Law, and dragging the matter to the
extent that Arwind ultimately ended up in jail in the early June 2014, seemed to be not only
atrocious and highhanded but also appeared to be an effort by Gadkari who had become
symbol of bully and corrupt politicians to curb the thinking aloud by the common man
who cannot generally have the evidence to support whatever he says. Gathering such
evidence involves highly specialized investigating teams, to which a common man has no
access.
One thing became clear to me and obviously to all, that Nitin Gadkari lacked the desirable
human character of magnanimity of the heart. I expected Narendra Ji would restrain and
reprimand Gadkari for what he was doing as he had been stretching the things too far which
would only generate sympathy for Kejriwal and BJP would be getting image of being unfair
to Kejriwal.

Ironically, the top ministers of the Narendra Modi cabinet do not serve until the pleasure of
the President of India or the Prime-Minister of India, but to the pleasure of the RSS. Given
the enormous clout held by such ministers with the RSS, Modi was helpless at this point
when the things were turning ugly.
I do not need to invite Gadkaris wrath on to myself. But the fact as coming in the
newspapers in 2012 is that Gadkaris Purti Group of industries had some fishy land deals and
loan arrangements for which he had to leave the post of the President of the BJP. Majority of
the people think, rightly or wrongly, that Gadkari was involved in corrupt practice.
On the other had people see Kejriwal as a basic honest and genuine person. He may be
considered immature or fickle-minded but not rotten. He has the credibility of being an IITian
and also having cleared the tough examination for the IRS. When Gadkari caused Kejriwal to
go to jail in the defamation suit, he was perceived as brutal, bully and unfair. In this egogame by Gadkari, he seemed to be winning in the court. Yet this whole episode gave
Kejriwal enormous sympathy of even his adversaries. To the unconscious minds of the
people of Delhi he became at par with those who suffered in the jails during the British
period of atrocity. This subtle connect with the freedom fighters gave a boost to the image of
Kejriwal.
Indian people give sympathy for those whom they see being persecuted unnecessarily by a
bully. This is the main reason the Indians have favoured in their hearts Rama and the
Pandavas who suffered in the forest, owing to atrocity by someone big and powerful. I am
sure had Gadkari not done this much of fuss, Narendra Modi would have been too happy to
get rid of him (Gadkari) and let him go from centre to Maharashtra as the Chief-Minister.
However, given that the vengeful, thin-skinned and egoist person he proved himself to be, he
could not be given the independent full responsibility of a state.
With time people forgot the Gadkaris atrocities. However the forgotten content stays in the
unconscious mind and may never surface again, yet such forgotten incidents too work
unconsciously by creating an intuition or impression, which often determines the voting
behaviour of the individual.

Postponing the Assembly Elections

Again, when the BJP tried to postpone the Delhi elections by attempting to form government
by horse trading, this was not seen by the voters in the good light. It was seen as a greedy
attempt by BJP. Causing delay in the elections only gave benefit to Kejriwal. Earlier people
were angry with him when he had left the Delhis Chief-Ministers post. But time is the best
healer. When a long pause had elapsed, people forgot and forgave Kejriwal for his past
mistakes. Kejriwal took the opportunity of this time to apologise fully from the public, reach
to the public and expose the state BJP unit how it intended to indulge in the horse trading.
I am sure soon after Gadkaris atrocities, Kejriwal started doing regular yoga and
meditations. It brought a serene calm look over his face which had been lacking cearlier. He
developed better control of his mind and words. Prior to that the only thing Kejriwal had been
lacking was yoga and meditation. He is a vegetarian and does not drink. Love for Indian

culture he had in his family background. Just given proper insight he learned to make a safe
distance from the naxals. He just did not utter the world secularism any more. And he now
fearlessly started saying Bharat Mata Ki Jai and Vande Mataram which no supporter of
secularist (read Islamist) politics in India would ever dare say. This change had made him a
New Age leader, in the same way as Narendra Modi is a New Age leader (see below).
Poor Governance of Delhi During the Presidents Rule (2014-2015)
Administering Delhi during the Presidents Rule was the responsibility of the Home Minister
Rajnath Singh which he was expected to manage through a nominated Advisor to the Lt
Governor. However during this period nothing stayed well. The rampant corruption in the
MCD and Delhi Administrations offices during the last 12 months only disenchanted the
voters.
Visible Lack of Anti-Corruption Intent of BJP
No initiative was visible towards the anti-corruption agenda of BJP either at centre or at the
state level. No anti-corruption act was passed. Public friendly stores like flipkart were
harassed. People now began to think that that the BJP was not keen on rooting out corruption
from the country. Possibly many leaders in the party were corrupt. The Finance Ministers
reluctance in the Swiss Bank probe issue was increasing the suspicion of the people. The
slow beginning of the end of the honeymoon period had started.

Poor Quality of State BJP Leaders in Delhi

The faces of the Delhi state BJP are far from impressive. None of them is an IITian. None has
qualification from MIT (USA), Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Cambridge or IIM. They are the
just stale vegetables or rotten potatoes. They look corrupt and degenerated and lack the
spiritual aura a promising politician should have. They are cunning crooks having interest in
property builders and brokers. They usually eat and drink and sit along with criminal minded
people. They can in no way get a single vote of the New Age voters which has emerged
recently over the last 10 years.

The New Age Voters:

In the last elections (Delhi Assembly 2013), there was a new type of voters, the New Age
Voters, which had by and large supported the AAP. This class was the product of the political
renaissance movement taking place spontaneously underneath the surface, being only barely
discernible time and again whenever some individuals like Shiv Khera, Ram Dev, Anna
Hazari etc took the issue of the political rot in the recent past.
In Delhi there is a good segment of voters belonging to the New Age (NA) type. This
scattered population is the product of latest education received away from the feudal bindings
of their native home districts, and now this group of people work and live in an environment
far removed from their social origins in their respective nuclear set ups. They do have their
castes but the caste is just a vestigial label of their pasts not able to exercise any influence
over the most of their decisions and actions including even the matrimonial ones.

The political consciousness and the voting pattern of this population are dependent on the
socio-political information imbibed from media including TV, newspapers, books and
internet. This group of people generally think independently and individually, and they
cannot be herded. This group can be the most invisible yet most quickly changing votesegment, and may affect the outcomes of any election unexpectedly. Their decisions depend
on a basket of objective facts and findings, which get synthesized into an impression that
decides the votes.
The New Age voters being a highly floating or volatile vote-segment have the decisive
capacity in the electoral outcomes in Delhi. They have generally hated the cheap rotten BJP
folks of politicians and voted Sheila Dikshit in the past. The segment voted Narendra Modi,
and it seems that in 2015, this vote segment was with Kejriwal.

What is the New Age Phenomenon?

This movement is born out of the sensibility of a sincere, genuine and aware modern man
who seeks to discover value, meaning and hope as well as a certain abstract order in the
existential system of the world, which also includes his country, state, work-place, market,
society and family.
The New Age mindset is spiritual but not religious in the traditional sense. It loves comfort
and luxuries yet is fully concerned about the damages occurring to the environment by
consumerism and its long term consequences which is the result of the growth of the
industrialization process. This mindset necessarily considers the political and ethical
corruption as well as social distortions responsible for ruining the peace, well being and
happiness of man.
The New Age people strive to have an understanding of the phenomena taking place in
society, politics and family, and in this process realise that the Hindu Vedanta philosophy has
provided the very appropriate explanations and solutions for many of these problems and
issues. The New Age people have become fed up with the unreasonableness of the Islamists
demands and their violence; they have become disgusted with the constant dictatorial
pressure by the missionaries to streamlining every mind to a particular faith system; and they
abhor the boorish social policing done by the Hindu outfits who hardly have any link with the
real Indian culture and wisdom. No doubt they hate superstitions yet are open to exploring the
Hindu scriptures and legacy as a part of scientific examinations.
The New Age voters are passionate to preserving individual freedoms, yet have been
horrified by the thugs mushrooming over the masses as demigods and babas on the one hand
and the crooks and power brokers on the other. These people have become thoroughly
disgusted from the demagogues and the bahubali (read bully) politicians of India.

Political Implications of the New Age Voters

This group certainly hated the pre-Modi BJP, which was castism-centred, sops-oriented, antimodernism kind of herd of thugs and crooks. People with extremely low knowledge,
understanding, sincerity and skills were the most visible and powerful faces of the BJP before

Modi. The political class of the pre-Modi BJP was characterized by crookedness, selfishness,
thuggery, cheapness, lack of integrity, manipulative-ness, nexus with economic offenders and
mafias.
People of this political class banked on their appeal to the parochial angles of the caste,
culture and religion by erecting themselves as the false messiahs of these causes. The New
Age voter would rather vote the outright corrupt and disgraced Congress rather than the
bunch of the filthy hypocrites which BJP had become before the advent of Narendra Modi.
However, now the condition has changed. Narendra Modi and Satish Shah fit the political
model of the New Age movement well, and the New Age voters had silently discarded the
AAP in May 2015. However by 2015 elections, this segment shifted from BJP to AAP when
a new Kejriwal was standing in their front.
Arwind Kejriwal did have the support of the New Age voters in the 2013 Delhi Assembly
elections. Even after Modis arrival in the centre-space of the BJP, Kejriwal was considered
the first option by the New Age voters for Delhi state. It is because in Delhi the New Age
voters were allergic to the names of cheap BJP leaders likes Vijay Kumar Goyal, V.K.
Malhotra, Harshwardhan, Krishna Tirath, Vijendra Gupta, Gahlots, Solankis, Bidhuris,
Tokuss etc. These are all traditional, cheap, highly manipulative brand names, which
actually had no political advantage in the elections.
Hence the win of Arwind Kejriwal needs not be explained in terms of campaigning or
projection of Kiran Bedi or frustration of Harshwardhan. These are all false explanations
given by the false masters of journalism and politics.