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Increased incarceration had a limited effect on reducing crime for the last two
decades: Increased incarceration had some effect, likely somewhere around 0-10 percent,
on reducing crime from 1990 to 2000. Since 2000, however, increased incarceration had an
almost zero effect on crime. Further, a number of states -- California, Michigan, New Jersey,
New York, and Texas -- have successfully reduced imprisonment while crime continued to
fall.
Other factors reduced crime: Increased numbers of police officers, some data-driven
policing techniques, changes in income, decreased alcohol consumption, and an aging
* Lauren-Brooke Eisen is Counsel and Julia Bowling is Research Associate at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. They
are co-authors of What Caused the Crime Decline?
population played a role in reducing crime. In particular, this report finds that the policing
technique known as CompStat is associated with a 5 to 15 percent decrease in crime. A
review of past research indicates that consumer confidence and inflation also likely
contributed to crime reduction.
Incarceration & Crime in California
As shown in Figure 1, Californian imprisoned 355 people per 100,000, lower than the U.S. at large,
yet still high.
Californias prison population started to decline modestly in 2006 after the Governor declared a
state of crisis due to severe overcrowding. Several emergency measures were enacted to avert the
prison crisis. In 2011, Gov. Jerry Brown signed the Public Safety Realignment Act. Realignment
shifted low-level offenders from state prisons to local jails and then encouraged their release from
jails. More recently, in November 2014, more than 4 million Californians voted in favor of
Proposition 47, a ballot initiative requiring certain low-level drug and theft offenses to be sentenced
as misdemeanors and affecting thousands of current and future offenders.
Figure 1: Imprisonment Rates in California and the U.S. (1980-2013)
As shown in Figure 2, as incarceration rose from 1980 (when California had 24,569 prisoners), the
effectiveness of increased incarceration adding new prisoners steadily declined. By 1997,
imprisonment increased five-fold to 132,523 prisoners, and effectiveness on crime declined to
essentially zero. The marginal effect on crime of adding more people to prisons remains at
essentially zero today.
This reports findings support further reforms to reduce Californias incarcerated population and
show this can be achieved without added crime.