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ISSN 1810-6358

viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa


CDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent
Development Policy Research Institute

r)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy

vicäika 2009 ¼ November 2009

saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang


RsIu bu)öar½tñ ¼ Sry Bopharath
b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina

bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳ

PñMeBj km<úCa
Phnom Penh, Cambodia

TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT:


Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: pubs@cdri.forum.org.kh. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
karbkRsaytaragsMxan;² Highlights
This report describes some of the key economic indicators
r)aykarN_enH bkRsayBIsUcnakresdækic©sMxan;²mYycMnYnsRmab; for Cambodia and its main trading partners. It compares
km<úCa nigbNþaRbeTsédKUBaNiC¢kmµcMbg² edayeRbobeFobtYelx figures for the current months of 2009 with those months

kñúgb:unµanExfµI²kñúgqñaM2009 CamYynwgExnanakñúgqñaM2008 . in 2008.


In September, total foreign visitor arrivals to Cambodia
kñúgExkBaØa cMnYnePJóvbreTssrubmkdl;km<úCa ekIn 2/0° eFobnwg increased by 2.0 percent compared with the same month in
ExkBaØa qñaM2008 . cMnYnePJóvmksRmaklMEh ekIntictYc RbmaN the previous year. Holiday arrivals rose slightly by 8.0
8/0° rIÉePJóvmkeFVICMnYj enAdEdl KW 11889 nak; ehIyePJóvmk percent. Business arrivals, 11889 visitors, remained
unchanged, while other arrivals decreased 67 percent.
dl;epSg²eTot Føak;cuH 67° .
In the third quarter of 2009, the total fixed asset investment
enARtImasTI3 qñaM2009 GnumtivinieyaKKitCaRTBüskmµCab;lab; approvals increased 8.8 times compared with the previous
srub ekIn 8/8dg eFobnwgRtImasmun . GnumtivinieyaKkñúgvis½y quarter. The approval of agricultural sector shot up from
ksikmµ sÞúHeLIgBIsUnü dl; 155landuløar vinieyaKkñúgvis½y nil to USD155 m, the service sector moved up 100 percent

esvakmµ ekIn 100° dl; 171landuløar nigkñúgvis½y]sSahkmµ to USD171 m and industry grew to USD60.59 m.

In July, approvals for villa and house construction in


ekIneLIgdl; 60/59landuløar .
Phnom Penh dropped 64 percent to USD0.9 m and
kñúgExkkáda GnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞH nigPUmiRKwHenAraCFanIPñMeBj approvals for flat construction fell 70 percent to USD1.9 m
Føak;cuH 64° mkRtwm 0/9landuløar nigGnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞH from the previous month. Other construction approvals

ElVg Føak;cuH 70° eFobnwgExmun mkRtwm 1/9landuløar . Gnumti increased 2.3 times to USD58 m.

The year-on-year consumer price index slipped 2.3 percent


KeRmagsagsg;epSg²eTot ekIn 2/3dg dl; 58landuløar .
in September, a smaller decline in price inflation than the
enAExkBaØa snÞsSn_éføTMnijeRbIR)as;BImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaM Føak;cuH 2.9 percent in the previous month. This was due to a fall in
2/3° EdlCakarFøak;cuHticénGtiprNa eFobnwgkMrit 2/9° kalBI the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages - 2.5
percent, housing utilities - 8.2 percent, transportation -
Exmun edaysarkarFøak;éfømðÚbGahar nigePsC¢³KµanCatiRsa -2/5°
10.8 percent, communication - 7.5 percent, recreation and
kareRbIR)as;esvaepSg²enApÞH -8/2° esvadwkCBa¢Ún -10/8° culture - 0.7 percent. In the same period, clothing and
TUrKmnaKmn_ -7/5° karlMEhkMsanþ nigvb,Fm’ -0/7° . Rsb footwear rose 5.8 percent, household furnishing and
eBlCamYyKñaenaH éføsMelokbMBak; nigRTnab;eCIg ekIn 5/8° operation 7.2 percent, healthcare 8.1 percent, and

cMNaydMeNIrkarkñúgRKYsar ekIn 7/2° karEfTaMsuxPaBekIn 8/1° education 14.1 percent.

Compared to September, the value of the riel was down


nigkarGb;rMekIn 14/1° .
against the US dollar, the Thai bath and the Vietnamese

eFobnwgExkBaØa R)ak;erolFøak;éfø Tl;nwgduløarGaemrik R)ak;)atéf dong in October. The riel traded at KHR 4172.2 per US
dollar, KHR 125.4 per Thai baht and KHR 23.48 per 100
nigR)ak;dugevotNam enAExtula edaybþÚr)an 4172/2erol¼ Vietnamese dong.
duløarGaemrik 125/4erol¼)at nig 23/48erol¼100dug . In August, the 12-month interest rate was down 12 percent
on riel bank deposits and 2.0 percent lower on dollar
enAExsIha GRtakarR)ak;kñúgry³eBl12Ex Føak;cuH 12° eFobnwg deposits than the previous month. In monetary operations,
Exmun elIR)ak;beBaØIenAFnaKarCaerol nig 2/0° elIR)ak;beBaØICa net foreign assets grew 2.0 percent from the same period
duløar . kñúgRbtibtþikarrUbiyvtßú RTBüskmµbreTssuT§ ekIneLIg 2° last year, and private sector credit increased 0.04 percent

eFobnwg GMLúgeBldEdl qñaMmun ehIy\NTandl;vis½yÉkCn ekIn while government deposits decreased by 0.03 percent.
Liquidity grew 0.1 percent. The annual growth rate (M2)
0/04° xN³EdlR)ak;beBaØIrdæaPi)al Føak;cuH 0/03° . sac;R)ak; increased 22 percent while money (M1) declined 64
TMenr ekIn 0/1° . GRtakMeNInRbcaMqñaMénrUbiyvtßúTUeTA ¬M2¦ KW percent and the rate of growth over the previous 12 months

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
22° cMENkÉsMrab;rUbiyvtßú ¬ M1¦ vaFøak;cuH 64° ehIyGRta (M2) was 12.9 percent.
In October, the price of gasoline decreased slightly by 1.0
kMeNInkñúgry³eBl 12Ex én ¬ M2¦ KW 12/9° . percent and diesel by 2.0 percent from the previous month.
Gasoline traded at KHR3896/ℓ and diesel at KHR3356/ℓ.
kñúgExtula saMg Føak;éføbnþic RbmaN 1° ehIym:as‘UtFøak;éfø 2°
The rice price increased 6.0 percent in Battambang to
eFobnwgExmun . saMglk;éfø 3896erol¼lIRt nigeRbgm:as‘Ut KHR2550/kg, in Kompong Speu 14 percent to KHR2500/kg
3356erol¼lIRt . GgáreLIgéføenAextþ)at;dMbg 6° dl; and Kompong Cham 4.0 percent to KHR2600/kg. The price

2550erol¼KILÚRkam enAkMBg;s<W eLIgéfø 14° dl; 2500erol¼ of rice in Kampot dropped 7.0 percent, while it remained
stable in Siem Reap and Svay Rieng at KHR2500/kg and
KILÚRkam nigkMBg;cameLIgéfø 4° dl; 2600erol¼KILÚRkam .
KHR2600/kg. The price of fish fell in Battambang by 11
éføGgár Føak;cuH 7° enAkMBt b:uEnþenAefrenAesomrab nigsVayerog KW percent, Kompong Cham 17 percent, and Kampot 6.0
2500erol¼KILÚRkam nig 2600erol¼KILÚRkam . RtIFøak;éfø percent. In Kompong Speu, the fish price increased 12
11° enAextþ)at;dMbg 17° enAkMBg;cam nig 6° enAkMBt percent while remaining the same in Siem Reap and Svay
Rieng. The price of pork shrank in Battambang 6.0
b:uEnþeLIgéfø 12° enAkMBg;s<W ehIyenAéføefr enAesomrab
percent, Kompong Speu 3.0 percent and was stable in
nigsVayerog . sac;RCUk cuHéføenAextþ)at;dMbg 6° kMBg;s<W 3° Kompong Cham, Kampot, Siem Reap and Svay Rieng.
b:uEnþenAéføefrenAkMBg;cam kMBt esomrab nigsVayerog . In September, the price of rice in the Thai market
decreased slightly from USD599/tonne to USD593/tonne.
kñúgExkBaØa éføGgárenATIpSaréf Føak;cuHtictYc BI 599duløar¼etan The prices of maize and maize products fell 12 percent to
mkRtwm 593duløar¼etan . eBat nigplitpleFVIBIeBat Føak;éfø USD187/tonne while rubber rose 12.0 percent from

12° mkRtwm 187duløar¼etan EtekAs‘UeLIgéfø 12° BI USD1489/tonne to USD1670/tonne. In the Vietnamese


market, the rice price was 8.0 percent lower than the
1489duløar¼etan dl; 1670duløar¼etan . enATIpSarevotNam
previous month while the prices of rubber increased 6.0
éføGgárcuHTabCagExmun 8/0° b:uEnþéføekAs‘UekIn 6/0° percent and cashew nuts 5.0 percent.
nigRKab;sVaycnÞI ekIn 5/0° . In September, the year-on-year inflation slipped in the
USA -1.3 percent, in Euro zone -0.3 percent and in Japan
enAExkBaØa GtiprNaBImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaM Føak;cuHenAshrdæGaemrik -2.2 percent. The trend was similar in China (a fall of 0.8
¬-1/3°¦ tMbn;GWr:U ¬-0/3°¦ nigCb:un ¬-2/2°¦ . ninñakarenH percent). Reverse trends were evident in Hong Kong (a
ekItmandUcKñaenAcin ¬GRtaFøak;cuH 0/8°¦ b:uEnþmanpÞúyKñaenAhugkug raise of 0.5 percent) and South Korea (a raise of 2.2

¬kMeNIn 0/5°¦ nigkUer:xagt,Úg ¬kMeNIn 2/2°¦ . percent). The inflation in Malaysia was (-2.0 percent),
Singapore (-0.4 percent), and Thailand (-1.0 percent).
GtiprNaenAm:aeLsIu KW -2/0° sigðburI -0/4° nigéf -1/0° .
In October, against the US dollar, the value of the Hong
Kong dollar remained stable compared with the previous
enAExtula eFobnwgduløarGaemrik duløarhugkug manéføefr eFobnwg month, while the Korean won depreciated 3.0 percent.
Exmun b:uEnþR)ak;v:unkUer: Føak;éfø 3/0° . RsbeBlCamYyKña R)ak; During the same period, the value of the Japanese yen
ey:nCb:un eLIgéfø 1/0° R)ak;GWr:U eLIgéfø 2/0° duløarsigðburIeLIg appreciated 1.0 percent, the Euro by 2.0 percent, the

éfø 2/0° nigR)ak;)atéfeLIgéfø 1/0° . Singapore dollar by 2.0 percent, and the Thai bath by 1.0
percent.

In October, the price of soybean products on the world


kñúgExtula enAelITIpSarBiPBelak plitplsENþkesog eLIgéfø
market increased 5.0 percent, maize products by 11
5/0° plitpleBateLIgéfø 11° nigekAs‘UeLIgéfø 14° percent and rubber by 14 percent compared with the
eFobnwgExmun . enAGMLúgeBlCamYyKña eRbgeqAlk;éfø previous month. During the same period, the price of crude
71/3duløar¼Fug eRbgm:as‘Ut 0/496duløar¼lIRt nigsaMg oil traded at USD71.3/barrel, diesel USD0.496/ℓ and

0/482duløar¼lIRt . gasoline USD0.482/ℓ.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
skmµPaBesdækic©sMxan;² nig éføTMnijenAkm<úCa
Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC Foreign Visitor Arrivals
2007 Q1–2009 Q3 July 2008–September 2009
4500

4000 250
Other
3500 Business
200 Holiday
3000
7

000' persons
11 3
2500
150 10
USD m

12
2000 12

1500
100
154
1000 124
50
500 133

0
07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3
0

Nov 08

May 09
Sep 08

Sep 09
Jul 08

Jul 09
Jan 09

Mar 09
Agriculture 19.1 2.1 12.0 102.4 52.3 16.7 18.6 4.4 175.3 0.0 155.01

Industry 142.7 51.2 187.2 328.0 52.9 94.9 91.6 485.4 257.7 39.4 60.59

Services 335.7 138.0 957.7 311.1 148.2 4064.9 4450.5 1339.6 495.6 0.0 171.32

Including expansion projects. Source: Ministry of Tourism


Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia * Revised data for August

Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals Phnom Penh: Inflation


May 2008–July 2009 Year-on-Year (%) Percentage Changes for
September 2009
300
Other 20
Flats
250 15
Villas &ho us es
10 7.2
200 5.8
5 -10.8
USD m

150 -2.5
0 14.9
8.1
-0.7
100 -5 -2.3

-10 -8.2 -7.5


50
-15
0 All ite m s F o o d & no n-a lc o ho lic be ve ra ge s
C lo thing a nd fo o twa re Ho us ing a nd utilitie s
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
May 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

HH furnis hings a nd o pe ra tio ns He a lth


Tra ns po rt C o m m unic a tio ns
R e c re a tio n a nd c ulture Educ a tio n
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Source: National Institute of Statistics
Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Deposit (%)
August 2008–October 2009 June 2008–August 2009
6000 9
7.6 6.05
8 6.88
5000
3896

7
4000 6
5 7.7
Riels/ℓ

5.93
3000
3356

4 5.6
3 Riel deposit rate
Diesel
2000
Gasoline 2 Dollar deposit rate
1000 1
0
0
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08
Aug 08

Feb 09

Aug 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Jun 09

Oct 09

Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
sßanPaBGRtabþÚrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDÆn_BIeRkARbeTs
Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance
Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND
August 2008–October 2009 August 2008–October 2009

4172
4161
4200

125.4
32
126 31

123.3
4118
4150 30
124 29

KHR per VDN100


4156
28

4145

KHR per Baht


4100 122 27

120
26
4102

4050 120 25
24

24.8
118 23

23.4
23.5
4000 Market rate 22
116 21
Official rate
20
3950
114 19

Aug 08

Aug 09
Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Oct 09
3900
Aug 08

Aug 09
Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Oct 09
Thai baht (left)
Vietnames e dong (right)
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Monetary Survey (%) Domestic Credit (%)
June 2008–August 2009 June 2008–August 2009
200 180 110
160 100
150 140 90
120 80
100 100 70
50 80 60
60 50
0 40 40
20 30
-50 0 20
-20 10
-100 -40 0
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Aug 08

Aug 09
Dec 08
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Oct 08

Annualised growth rate (M2)


Annualis ed change in do mes tic credit (left) Apr 09
Annualised growth rate (M1) Annualis ed change in private s ector credit (left)
Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) P revious 12 months ' gro wth in do mes tic credit (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia


Monetary Operations External Development Assistance Disbursement:
June 2008–August 2009 Environment & Conservation
14000 2000–2007
12000
10000 35
8000
30
KHR bn

6000
4000
2000 25
0
-2000 20
USD m

-4000
-6000 15
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

10

5
Liquidity Net Foreign Assets
Private Sector Credit Government Deposits 0
Other
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati
External Trade and National Budget Operations
Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials Cambodia: Main Exports
May 2008–July 2009 May 2008–July 2009
120
400 8
350 7
100
300 6
16.5
80 250 5

USD m

USD m
11.8 12.6
200 4
KHR bn

60 14.2 150 3
20.4
16.0 100 2
40
50 1
Cigarettes Cement Steel 65.9 45.5
20 35.2 0 0

Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
May 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09
0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
May 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09 T otal exports (left) Garments (left)


Rubber (right) Fish (right)

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Imports: Petroleum Products Current Budget Operations
May 2008–July 2009 July 2008–September 2009
108.3

120 250
98.6
98.2

200
100 148
150
80 100
33
KHR bn

KHR bn

50
60
0
-50 -4
40
-100
20 -150
0 -200
Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Sep 09
Mar 09

May 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Jul 09
Mar 09
May 08

May 09

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin


Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009
1400
600
1200
500 80 1000
KHR bn

400 87 800 124


KHR bn

41
600
300 113 43
85 93 400 167
200 Non-tax
247 200 334
241 Import and Export taxes
100 Domes tic taxes 233 0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Other services
Subsidies and social assistance
Wages
Current expenditure
Source: MEF web site
Source: MEF web site

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
éføes,ógGahartamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa
Provincial Food Prices
Cambodia: Food Prices in Siem Reap Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Battambang Province
August 2008–October 2009 August 2008–October 2009
21500 27000 21500 27000
18000 23000 18000 23000
14500 19000 14500 19000

Riels/kg

Riels/kg
Riels/kg

Riels/kg
11000 15000 11000 15000
7500 11000 7500 11000
4000 7000 4000 7000
500 3000 500 3000

Oct 08
Dec 08
Feb 09

Jun 09

Oct 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09
Oct 08
Dec 08
Feb 09

Jun 09

Oct 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09
Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Cham Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Kampot Province
August 2008–October 2009 August 2008–October 2009

21500 27000 21500 27000


18000 23000 18000 23000
14500 19000 14500 19000

Riels/kg
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

Riels/kg

11000 15000 11000 15000


7500 11000 7500 11000
4000 7000 4000 7000
500 3000
500 3000
Aug-08

Aug-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09

Oct-09
Oct 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Jun 09

Oct 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09

Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI
Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Speu Province
August 2008–October 2009 August 2008–October 2009
21500 27000 25000 31000
18000 23000 21500 27000
14500 19000 18000 23000
Riels/kg
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

Riels/kg

11000 15000 14500 19000


7500 11000 11000 15000
4000 7000 7500 11000
4000 7000
500 3000
500 3000
Aug-08

Aug-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Oct-08

Feb-09

Oct-09

Aug 08

Aug 09
Apr 09
Jun 09
Dec 08
Feb 09
Oct 08

Oct 09

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI
Source: CDRI

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 7


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij
Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products
Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces

3500 2900

2800
Kampot

2500
Siem Reap

2600
3000 2800

2550
Svay Rieng
2500 2700

2600

2600
2600
2700
2475

2550
2000 2600

2500
Riels/kg

Riels/kg
2400
2550

2500

2500

2500
2500
2550

1500 2500
2500

2900

2550

2400
2500

2400

2500
1000 2400

2500

2600

2600
Battambang

2200
500 Kompong Speu 2300

2500
Kompong Cham
0 2200
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces
14000

15000
16000
Battambang 18000
12000

14000 Kompong Speu 16000

13000
12000
Kompong Cham
14000

16000
12000
9750

15000
14000
12000

13500

12000

16000
10000

12000
11000

14000
12000
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

10000
11750

13000
13000

14000
8000
10250

13000
12750
12250

8000
11000

6000
9750

12000
6000
12500
10000
11500

4000 4000 Kampot


2000 2000 Siem Reap
Svay Rieng
0 0
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces
18000

18500
18000

20000
16000

18000 18000
15000
18000
18000

16000
18000

17500
18000

18000
18000

14000
16000

17000
18000

15000

15000
15000

15000

12000
16000

18000
17000
Riels/kg

16500
Riels/kg
16500

16500

16500

15500

10000
16000

16000
16500

16500

16000

8000
16000

16500

15500
6000
15000
16500

Battambang 4000
Kompong Speu Kampot
14500 2000 Siem Reap
Kompong Cham
14000 Svay Rieng
0
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09

Source: CDRI
Source: CDRI

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 8


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
éføTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia
Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew Nuts
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009
1400 3000 1400 13000
1200 2500 1200 11000

USD per tonne

USD per tonne


1000 9000
USD per tonne

USD per tonne


1000 2000
800 1500
800 7000
600 5000
600 1000
400 3000
400 500
200 1000
200 0

Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09
Mar 09

May 09

Sep 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Sep 09
Mar 09

May 09

Rice (left) Rice (left) Rubber (right)


Rubber (right)
Cashew nuts (right)
Maize and Maize Products (right)

Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Thailand: Exports Vietnam: Exports
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008– September 2009
800 4.0 480 140
700 3.5
400 120
600 3.0
320 100
USD m

USD m

2.5
USD m

USD m
500
2.0 240 80
400 1.5 160 60
300 1.0 80 40
200 0.5
0 20
Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Sep 09

Nov-08

May-09
Jul-08

Sep-08

Jul-09

Sep-09
Jan-09

Mar-09

Rice (left) Rice (left) Rubber (left)


Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left)
Cashew and similar nuts (right) Cashew nuts (right)

Source: Customs Department of Thailand Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam


Thailand: International Arrivals Vietnam: International Arrivals
October 2006–December 2007* July 2008–September 2009

1600 700
1400 Air Land Sea
600 Others
1200 500 Business
1000 T ourism
000 persons

400
800
300
600
400 200

200 100
0 0
Aug 07
Feb 07

Jun 07
Dec 06

Apr 07

Dec 07
Oct 06

Oct 07

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jul-09

Sep-09
Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam


*Data are available to December 2007. Data were estimated by the statistics office.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
skmµPaBesdækic© nig sßanPaBGRtaGtiprNaénbNþaRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia
Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan (%) Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan
October 2008–August 2009 May 2008–July 2009
30 250
US Euro zone
20 Japan
10
200
0
-10
-20 150

USD bn
-30
-40
-50 100
-60

Aug 09
Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

50

Manufactured goods Machinery 0

May 08

May 09
Sep 08

Nov 08

Mar 09
Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09
Electricial machinery T ransport equipment
T otal

Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics


Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD
External Trade: Malaysia Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan (%)
June 2008–August 2009 (price change from a year earlier)
6
22 5
20 Exports 4
18 Imports
Trade balance 3
16
2
14
12 1
10 0
8 -1
6 -2
4 -3
2

May-09
Nov-08
Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09
Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09
0
Feb-09
Aug-08

Aug-09
Oct-08

Dec-08

Apr-09
Jun-08

Jun-09

USA Euro zone Japan

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia


Sources: IMF and Economist (1 November 2009)
Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries
(price change from a year earlier) (price change from a year earlier)
7 10

6 8
5
6
4
4
3

2 2

1 0
0
-2
-1

-2 -4

-3 -6
Jul 08

Jul 09
Jan 09

May 09
Nov 08
Sep 08

Mar 09

Sep 09

Nov 08

May 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Jan 09

Mar 09

Malaysia Singapore Thailand


China Hong Kong South Korea

Sources: IMF and Economist (1 November 2009) Sources: IMF and Economist (1 November 2009)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 10


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBéføTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets
KRW & HKD per USD EUR & JPY per USD
August 2008–October 2009 August 2008–October 2009

1800 7.80 126.00 0.87


1600 7.79 122.00 JPY (left scale) 0.84
1400 7.78 118.00 EURO (right scale) 0.81
1200 114.00 0.78
7.77
1000 110.00 0.75

EURO
KRW

HKD
7.76

JPY
800 106.00 0.72
7.75
600 102.00 0.69
400 KRW (left scale) 7.74
98.00 0.66
200 HKD (right scale) 7.73 94.00 0.63
0 7.72 90.00 0.6
Aug 08

Aug 09

Aug 08

Aug 09
Feb 09

Jun 09

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09

Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Oct 09

Oct 08

Oct 09
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THB & SGD Per USD Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices
August 2008–October 2009 July 2008–September 2009

1.56 42 850 350

1.53 40 750 300

1.50 38 650 250


USD / tonne FOB

1.47 36 550 200


SGD

THB

IPO
1.44 34 450 150
1.41 32 350 USA 2/4 100
SGD (left scale)
1.38 30 Thai 100% B
T HB (right scale) 250 IPO 50
1.35 28
150 0
Aug 08

Aug 09
Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Oct 09

Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Jul 09

Sep 09
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice
Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Rubber Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel
June 2008–August 2009 August 2008–October 2009
600 3500 150 150
140 C ru d e o il : O P E C s p o t - U S D / b a rre l 140
3100 G a s o lin e : U S G u lf C o a s t - U S c e n t s /li tre ( rig h t s c a le )
500 130 D ie s e l: lo w s u lp h u r N o .2 - U S c e n ts / litre ( rig h t s c a l e )
130
2700 120 120
110 110
400 2300
100 100
USD / tonne FOB

1900 90 90
US Cent

300 80 80
USD

1500 70 70
200 1100 60 60
50 50
700 40 40
100 S o y b e a n s : U S N o .1 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e ) 30 30
M a i z e : U S N o .2 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e ) 300
R u b b e r S M R 5 (rig h t s c a le ) 20 20
Aug 08

Aug 09
Apr 09
Oct 08

Dec 08

Oct 09
Feb 09

Jun 09

0 -1 0 0
Oct 08
Jun 08

Aug 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Apr 09

Jun 09

Aug 09

Source: US Energy Information Administration


Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2009
B½t’manesdækic©
Economic News
B½t’manesdækic©sMxan;² ³ Economic News Highlights:
ADB Vice-President Signs Agreements Worth $37.3M
GnuRbFanFnaKar ADB )ancuHhtßelxaelIkic©RBmeRBogmantémø 37/3 with Cambodia: MANILA, PHILIPPINES – Asian
Development Bank (ADB) Vice-President C. Lawrence
landuløar CamYykm<úCa ³ TIRkugm:anIl RbeTshVIlIBIn - kalBIéf¶TI 17 Greenwood today (17 September) signed grants and loan
kBaØa knøgeTA elak C. Lawrence Greenwood GnuRbFanFnaKar agreements with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Economy and Finance, H.E. Keat Chhon, totalling $37.3
ADB )ancuHhtßelxaCamYyÉk]tþm Kat Qn; ]bnaykrdæmRnþI rdæm®nþI million. A $21 million grant for the Second Rural Water
RksYgesdækic© nighirBaØvtßú elIkic©RBmeRBogsþIBIkMcI nigGMeNayhirBaØvtßú Supply and Sanitation Project will support Cambodia's
efforts to deliver improved rural water supply and
EdlmanTwkR)ak;srub cMnYn 37/3landuløar . GMeNayhirBaØvtßúcMnYn sanitation to some of the poorest areas around the Tonle
21landuløarsMrab;KMeragpÁt;pÁg;Twk nigGnam½yelIkTI2 nwgCYyKaMRTkic©Rbwg Sap Basin. The Northwest Road Improvement Project, a
$16.3 million concessional loan, co-financed with a $25.6
ERbgrbs;RbeTskm<úCaedIm,Ipþl;karpÁt;pÁg;Twk nigGnam½ykan;EtRbesIrdl; million loan from the Republic of Korea, will rehabilitate
113 kilometres of National Road No. 56 connecting the
tMbn;CnbT edayepþatelItMbn;RkIRkbMputmYycMnYnenACMuvijbwgTenøsab . provinces of Banteay Meanchey and Oddor Meanchey
KMeragEklMGpøÚvfñl;enAtMbn;PaKBayBü EdlTTYl)ankMcIsm,Tan 16/3 provinces and will upgrade a border facility with Thailand.
"The two projects will help Cambodia meet its Millennium
landuløar KYbpSMnwgkMcI 25/6landuløar BIsaFarN³rdækUer: nwgsþarCYsCul Development Goals by improving access to safe water and
pøÚvCatielx56 RbEvg 113KILÚEm:Rt EdltP¢ab;extþbnÞaymanC½y sanitation, which in turn leads to better health outcomes,
and by promoting economic growth and poverty reduction
nig]tþrmanC½y nigEklMGehdæarcnasm<½n§enARBMEdnCab;RbeTséf . elak in the northwest region through increased cross-border
Greenwood GnuRbFanFnaKar ADB manRbsasn_fa {KMeragTaMgBIrenH tourism and trade activities," said ADB Vice-President
Greenwood. The fresh finance allows the Ministry of
nwgCYy[km<úCaGnuvtþ)ansMercnUv eKaledAGPivDÆn_shsSvtSrbs;xøÜn Rural Development to expand an ongoing rural water
supply and sanitation project covering five provinces of
tamry³kareFVI[RbesIreLIgnUv lT§PaBTTYl)anTwks¥at nigGnam½y Battambang, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Thom,
EdleFVI[RbCaCnmansuxPaBkan;Etl¥RbesIr nig tamry³karCMruj Pursat, and Siem Reap, into a sixth – Banteay Meanchey.
Efforts will focus on rehabilitating existing wells,
kMeNInesdækic© nigkarkat;bnßyPaBRkIRkenAtMbn;BayBü edaybegáIn providing new water supply facilities, and encouraging
skmµPaBBaNiC¢kmµ nig eTscrN_qøgkat;RBMEdn} . hirBaØvtßúEdlTTYl)an sanitation behaviour change at the household level. The
project will work in about 400 villages. The total project
fµI²enH nwgCYy[RksYgGPivDÆn_CnbT GacBRgIkKMeragpÁt;pÁg;Twks¥at costs are estimated at $25.8 million, which include
nigGnam½yenACnbT eTAdl;extþbnÞaymanC½y EdlBImunKMeragenHRKb contributions of $1.8 million from the Royal Government
and $3 million (mostly in kind) from beneficiaries.
dNþb;EtelI 5 extþb:ueNÑaH KW )at;dMbg kMBg;qñaMg kMBg;FM eBaF×sat; National Road No. 56 is a key conduit for goods and
nigesomrab . KMeragenHRbwgERbgepþatelI karsþarCYsCulGNþÚgEdl people between northwest Cambodia and northeast
Thailand, and also forms a feeder connection to the GMS
manRsab; karpþl;RbB½n§pÁt;pÁg;TwkfµI nigkarCMruj[mankarpøas;bþÚr\riyabf East-West Economic Corridor. The improved border
facilities are expected to aid cross-border tourism as the
enAkMritRKYsarTak;TinnwgbBaðaGnam½y . KMeragenH nwgdMeNIrkarkñúgPUmi restored road will connect to a key route to Siem Reap –
RbEhl 400 edaymantémø):an;sµansrub 25/8landuløar EdlkñúgenH site of the world famous temples of Angkor. (Source ADB,
September 17)
manfvikacMnYn 1/8landuløar )anBIraCrdæaPi)al nig 3landuløar
Links to other economic news:
¬PaKeRcInCasMPar³¦ )anBIGñkTTYlpl . pøÚvCatielx56 CaRckd¾sMxan;mYy
1. “US Export Import Bank Open to Cambodia”
sMrab;kareFVIdMeNIr nigdwkCBa¢ÚnTMnijrvag tMbn;PaKBayBüRbeTskm<úCa (http://www.voanews.com/khmer/2009-10-28-
nigtMbn;PaK|sanRbeTséf nigCadMNP¢ab;eTAkan;Rckesdækic©BIekIteTAlic voa7.cfm)
2. “Asian insurance industry to see higher penetration
énmhaGnutMbn;emKgÁ . eKrMBwgfa karEklMGehdæarcnasm<½n§enARBMEdn rate: official” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
nwgCYybegáIneTscrN_qøgkat;RBMEdn BIeRBaHpøÚvEdlCYsCulenH KWtP¢ab; 10/20/content_12282064.htm)
3. “Asia advised to boost intra-regional trade”
eTAnwgRckpøÚvy:agsMxan;mYy eTAkan;extþesomrab EdlCaTIRbCMunUv (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
10/20/content_12279709.htm )
R)agÁR)asaTd¾l,Il,ajelIsaklelak CaBiess R)asaTGgÁrvtþ . 4. “Private Companies Prepare To Enter Stock
Exchange” (http://www.voanews.com/khmer/2009-11-
03-voa6.cfm)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 12

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