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Table of Contents
I.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 3
II.
COMPANY OVERVIEW 7
III.
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW.. 16
IV.
APPENDIX.. 22
Industry Overview
E-commerce now makes up 6.6% of US retail sales which is up from slightly less than 2% from a decade ago. Moving online allows
retailers to be able to access a larger consumer base and boost awareness of the products. It builds brand recognition and can help to
get rid of excess inventory. These sales have lead to a boost in apparel retailers sales.
Industry Overview
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
2/1/2014
4/3/2014
6/3/2014
8/3/2014
10/3/2014
12/3/2014
2/2/2015
Cotton has decreased dramatically and have supported an increase in margins for apparel retailers. However, many other factors are
influencing retailers margins. For instance, online shopping requires retailers to take lower margins, Asias higher wages, and higher
ground shipping rates in the United States will all prove to be potential risks to consider for the whole industry.
Bloomberg, Capital IQ
Industry Overview
There has been a rise in competition and a surge in online shopping which have been forcing some smaller retailers to exit the
industry. Consolidation seems to be a fairly prominent factor in the industry. With less opportunity for growth, a focus on margins
may be important. American Eagle plans to close 150 stores in the next 3 years while Abercrombie & Fitch plans to close 60 in
coming years. Aeropostale and Express have similar plans.
Long Stock Pitch and Valuation
Sources:
Company Overview
Take care of the customer, take care of the employee, and the rest will
take care of itself. Guiding Principle by Gary Comer, Founder
Lands End, Inc. operates as a multi-channel retailer primarily in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The company operates through
two segments, Direct and Retail. It offers mens, womens, and kids apparel, outerwear, and swimwear; specialty apparel; accessories;
footwear; and home products. The company sells its products through e-commerce Websites, direct mail catalogs, phone, or in-store
computer kiosks, as well as standalone and dedicated stores. Lands End, Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Dodgeville,
Wisconsin. Lands' End, Inc. operates independently of Sears Holdings Corporation as of April 04, 2014.
60
5M
50
4M
Beat 3Q earnings
estimates by 40%
40
3M
Beat 2Q earnings
estimates by 113%
30
2M
20
1M
10
0
Mar-20-2014
0M
May-20-2014
Jul-20-2014
Sep-20-2014
Volume
Nov-20-2014
Jan-20-2015
Stock Price
Company Overview
Company Overview
May-20-2014
Jul-20-2014
Sears Holdings Corporation
Sep-20-2014
Nov-20-2014
Jan-20-2015
10
Company Overview
Post 4Q Selloff
With a forward P / E ratio of 14.5 x, Lands End is trading at more than a 50% discount to the mean of similar vertically
integrated brands and even more so compared to internet retail companies. At the moment, LE shares appear to be by no means
expensive; in fact, some would call it dirt cheap. For the majority of its time public since 2014, LE has traded fairly in line with its
comparables average daily multiple. With the recent selloff and Lands End and a spike in investor sentiment over some its peer
retail companies, it may be a very good opportunity to jump into Lands End before multiple expansion occurs. The market can
certainly be described as having overreacted to the performance update in the 4th quarter and will eventually correct itself in the
near future.
11
Company Overview
Bloomberg
12
Company Overview
56%
1,580
1,560
55%
1,540
1,520
1,500
54%
1,480
1,460
53%
1,440
1,420
1,400
52%
Feb 1 2013
Jan 31 2014
Total Revenue
Oct 31 2014
COGS % Sales
In terms of its past 3 performance periods, revenue growth might not look the most attractive with a decline of 1.5% and then an
increase of 1.2%. Furthermore, there has been repetitive news excerpts describing Lands End recent store closures. However there
is always two sides to one argument. As a company going through a lot of restructuring following a spinoff from its parent company
in which it had been with for the past 12 years, it is doubtful that the company will immediately begin focusing on growth
opportunities and satisfying pessimistic investors. In reality, it has to restructure its company to meet a new set of objectives that has
been established by management. In fact, the upside to stagnant growth is that the company has begun to cut a large of their COGS
with a decrease by 3.3% followed by another decrease of 2.0%. This increase in profitability is a solid indicator that the company is it
good financial shape and could continue to increase its margins in the future.
Capital IQ
13
Company Overview
Edgar Huber
Federica Marchionni
The topic of historical stagnant growth leads well into the second point regarding the implementation of new CEO Federica
Marchionni who was with Italian luxury fashion designer powerhouse Dolce & Gabanna for most of the last 14 years in which she
was the president of the American division. As mentioned earlier, being part of Sears for such a long time has led to a damage of
Lands Ends brand image. The brand is set for a repositioning and Ma rchionni may be just the right person to lead the change (or
charge). The past CEO, Edgar Huber served his purpose in leading the company out of a mass restructuring change (leaving Sears)
and its good that Lands End has now decided to focus more so on improving its brand. It is also interesting to note that LE
received mixed customer reactions on its womens apparel particularly sweaters and knits indicating that some of LEs poor 4Q
results could be attributed to poor designs and trend alignment. Marchionni experience in working for high class brands such as
Ferrari, Samsung, Ericsson, and D&G will likely reinvigorate the brand and hopefully will have better judgment on fashion trends
such as sweaters or knits. Paula Rosenblum, an analyst working in Retail Systems Research described Marchionni as all about the
negotiations, she's all about opening channels, she's all about getting online being digitally astute. It's actually an interesting job for
her because if she can turn that brand around, it'll be a great story."
Business Insider, Journal Sentinel, Google Images, Huffington Post, Lands End Website
14
Company Overview
Product Offerings
Business Outfitter
International Expansion
In addition to managements plan in growing its Direct business segment through digital transformation and customization for each
of its consumers, LE is pursuing numerous growth strategies which management has outlined. The executive has acknowledged that
they neglected providing certain product offerings in the past and have expressed its interest in developing its footwear, handbags,
leather goods, and fashion accessory lines. In combination with Marchionnis influence, this will likely be beneficial in turning around
consumers perception of the brand to a classier image. They have also mentioned how they have experienced increasing productivity
in both its retail and Business Outfitter/School Uniform segments and that expanding on these parts of the company would be
likely. Its Business Outfitter division services tens of thousands of clients from major airlines to private schools across United States
and Canada. Finally, management has detailed how it is looking to take all of its operations on an international basis. Currently, it
operates in United States, Canada, Northern and Central Europe, and Japan. In addition to expanding its presence in these areas, it is
also looking to go to other areas of Europe (such as Switzerland, Russia, and Scandinavia) and Asia (particularly China). Its growth as
a trusted brand over the last 20 years and its capability to operate efficiently as a vertically integrated bran means it is well-positioned
to take its advantages and move abroad to pursue new growth opportunities.
15
16
Financial Overview
Valuation Summary
Current Price:
35.46
Target Price:
49.42
$56.65
P / E 2015E (Overall)
$57.95
P / E 2016E(Similar Metrics)
$47.70
P / E 2016E(Overall)
$32.79
$70.51
$48.87
$48.58
$54.99
$37.59
$39.99
$48.41
$41.15
$50.48
$58.19
$70.33
$44.26
$65.13
$43.28
$25
$57.86
$35
$49.97
$45
$55
$65
$75
17
Financial Overview
Enterprise
Value
LTM
EV / EBITDA
FY1
FY2
FCF
Margin %
Dividend
Yield %
LTM
Price / Earnings
FY1
FY2
EV / Revenue
LTM
FY1
Apparel Retail Com panies w ith YoY Grow th -2% to 2% and Sim ilar EBIT Margins (Sim ilar Metrics)
The Gap, Inc.
Cabela's Incorporated
DSW Inc.
Chico's FAS Inc.
The Buckle, Inc.
ANN INC.
Brown Shoe Co. Inc.
Speedway Motorsports Inc.
Tilly's,
Inc. Inc. (NasdaqGS:WEYS)
Weyco
Group
$17,451
3,807
3,228
2,811
2,399
1,670
1,281
968
367
299.2
$17,877
7,741
3,004
2,620
2,191
1,560
1,456
1,272
309
314.5
Mean
Median
Vertically Integrated Apparel Brands
L Brands, Inc.
Michael Kors Holdings Limited
PVH Corp.
Carter's, Inc.
Urban Outfitters Inc.
Kate Spade & Company
Oxford Industries Inc.
$27,375
14,277
8,605
4,395
4,958
4,220
903
$31,613
13,327
11,997
4,847
4,715
4,506
1,045
Mean
Median
Lands' End, Inc.
1,102
1,509
Overall Mean
Overall Median
6.8 x
17.3 x
9.6 x
9.3 x
7.6 x
6.4 x
8.8 x
8.9 x
7.2
x
9.8
7.0 x
15.7 x
9.9 x
9.4 x
7.6 x
6.6 x
8.1 x
9.1 x
7.1 x-
6.7 x
13.9 x
8.7 x
8.2 x
7.4 x
6.0 x
7.5 x
8.8 x
6.4 x-
7.1%
5.1%
5.2%
13.1%
1.5%
0.5%
12.8%
2.2%
0.027
2.1%
2.0%
1.6%
7.4%
1.0%
2.6%
0.027-
14.6 x
19.2 x
21.4 x
27.5 x
14.7 x
20.1 x
18.7 x
23.2 x
26.6
x
17.5
14.7 x
17.1 x
22.4 x
27.9 x
14.7 x
21.4 x
17.4 x
24.8 x
27.8
x
16.74
13.6 x
14.9 x
19.5 x
22.4 x
14.3 x
17.6 x
15.0 x
21.6 x
23.5
x
14.47
1.1 x
2.1 x
1.2 x
1.0 x
1.9 x
0.6 x
0.6 x
2.6 x
0.6 x1
1.1 x
1.9 x
1.2 x
1.0 x
1.9 x
0.6 x
0.6 x
2.6 x
0.6
x
1.02
9.1 x
8.8 x
8.9 x
8.1 x
8.1 x
7.5 x
5.9%
5.1%
2.8%
2.1%
20.7 x
20.1 x
20.9 x
21.4 x
18.0 x
17.6 x
1.3 x
1.1 x
1.3 x
1.1 x
13.8 x
9.7 x
9.9 x
12.1 x
9.5 x
69.4 x
8.7 x
13.5 x
9.5 x
10.0 x
11.6 x
9.4 x
30.7 x
8.6 x
12.4 x
8.4 x
9.8 x
10.3 x
8.5 x
22.6 x
7.7 x
10.1%
9.4%
8.6%
2.1%
3.9%
13.3%
4.5%
1.5%
0.1%
0.9%
1.5%
28.9 x
18.9 x
17.0 x
24.8 x
23.4 x
18.2 x
27.5 x
16.5 x
14.3 x
21.4 x
22.8 x
106.9 x
18.8 x
24.4 x
14.8 x
13.2 x
18.3 x
19.2 x
55.9 x
16.5 x
2.8 x
3.2 x
1.5 x
1.7 x
1.5 x
3.1 x
1.1 x
2.8 x
3.0 x
1.5 x
1.7 x
1.4 x
4.0 x
1.1 x
19.0 x
9.9 x
13.3 x
10.0 x
11.4 x
9.8 x
7.4%
8.6%
1.0%
1.2%
21.9 x
21.2 x
32.6 x
21.4 x
23.2 x
18.3 x
2.1 x
1.7 x
2.2 x
1.7 x
8.8 x
9.3 x
9.5 x
11.9%
12.8 x
14.5 x
16.0 x
1.0 x
1.0 x
13.4 x
9.4 x
10.9 x
9.4 x
9.6 x
8.4 x
6.6%
5.2%
2.1%
1.6%
21.1 x
20.1 x
26.0 x
21.4 x
20.3 x
17.9 x
1.7 x
1.5 x
1.7 x
1.4 x
18
Financial Overview
Revenue:
Conservative Projections
Base Projections
Optimistic Projections
EBIT
EBITDA
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
EBITDA Multiples Method
WACC
6.1%
Exit Multiple
2017E EBITDA
Terminal Value
9.5 x
$206.2
$1,958.7
$1,993.4
Debt
Cash
512.4
105.6
Base Case
Bear Base
Debt
Cash
$1,586.6
32.0
$49.58
35.46
40%
Bull Case
$39
Multiples Method
$43
$47
$51
0.00%
$134.9
$2,209.45
CAGR
2012-2014
(0.1%)
34.0%
26.3%
Growth Method
Base Case
$2,203.3
512.4
105.6
Bear Base
$1,796.5
32.0
$56.14
35.46
58%
Bull Case
$40
$50
$60
$70
19
Financial Overview
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Analysis: EBITDA Multiple Method
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
20
Financial Overview
Recommendation:
Buy Lands End at Market Price
39.4% Implied Return
21
Appendix
22
Appendix
Currency
Revenue
Other Revenue
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
Selling General & Admin Exp.
R & D Exp.
Depreciation & Amort.
Other Operating Expense/(Income)
Other Operating Exp., Total
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Interest and Invest. Income
Net Interest Exp.
Currency Exchange Gains (Loss)
Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.)
EBT Excl. Unusual Items
Restructuring Charges
Impairment of Goodwill
Legal Settlements
Other Unusual Items
EBT Incl. Unusual Items
Income Tax Expense
Earnings from Cont. Ops.
Earnings of Discontinued Ops.
Extraord. Item & Account. Change
Net Income to Company
Minority Int. in Earnings
Net Income
Capital IQ
12 months
Feb-01-2002
12 months
Jan-28-2011
12 months
Jan-27-2012
12 months
Feb-01-2013
12 months
Jan-31-2014
LTM
12 months
Oct-31-2014
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
1,569.1
1,569.1
688.8
575.7
575.7
113.2
(1.4)
1.5
0.2
(1.7)
(3.7)
107.9
107.9
41.0
66.9
66.9
66.9
1,655.6
1,655.6
822.0
615.5
22.0
0.0
637.4
184.5
0.0
184.6
9.1
193.6
72.4
121.3
121.3
121.3
1,725.6
1,725.6
766.0
621.0
22.7
0.5
644.2
121.8
0.1
121.9
121.9
45.7
76.2
76.2
76.2
1,585.9
1,585.9
704.1
596.4
23.1
0.1
619.6
84.5
0.1
84.5
(2.5)
82.1
32.2
49.8
49.8
49.8
1,562.9
1,562.9
710.3
561.9
21.6
0.1
583.6
126.7
0.1
126.8
1.6
128.4
49.5
78.8
78.8
78.8
1,581.2
1,581.2
745.3
573.6
20.0
0.1
593.6
151.7
(14.3)
(14.3)
0.8
138.2
2.3
140.5
53.8
86.6
86.6
86.6
23
Appendix
Currency
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents
Total Cash & ST Investments
Accounts Receivable
Total Receivables
Inventory
Prepaid Exp.
Deferred Tax Assets, Curr.
Restricted Cash
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment
Accumulated Depreciation
Net Property, Plant & Equipment
Goodwill
Other Intangibles
Other Long-Term Assets
Total Assets
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable
Accrued Exp.
Short-term Borrowings
Curr. Port. of LT Debt
Curr. Income Taxes Payable
Unearned Revenue, Current
Def. Tax Liability, Curr.
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Pension & Other Post-Retire. Benefits
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr.
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Additional Paid In Capital
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Comprehensive Inc. and Other
Total Common Equity
Total Equity
Total Liabilities And Equity
Capital IQ
Feb-01-2002
Jan-28-2011
Jan-27-2012
Feb-01-2013
Jan-31-2014
Oct-31-2014
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
122.1
122.1
13.3
13.3
227.2
24.1
15.9
402.6
344.2
(150.3)
193.9
2.7
599.1
15.6
15.6
33.1
33.1
395.6
28.4
3.4
476.1
238.0
(123.0)
115.0
110.0
536.6
1.2
1,238.9
28.3
28.3
27.1
27.1
378.5
7.4
3.3
18.6
463.2
250.9
(141.2)
109.7
110.0
534.0
0.8
1,217.7
22.4
22.4
33.6
33.6
369.9
6.4
3.3
15.6
451.2
258.8
(157.7)
101.1
110.0
531.3
0.6
1,194.3
105.6
105.6
39.5
39.5
403.9
40.4
3.3
592.6
99.1
110.0
529.4
22.9
1,354.0
83.4
51.7
16.2
25.0
9.4
185.6
12.8
198.4
0.4
48.0
556.0
(206.9)
3.3
400.7
400.7
599.1
105.8
15.4
38.3
0.3
30.3
190.1
1.8
201.5
1.6
395.1
845.4
(1.5)
843.8
843.8
1,238.9
106.7
13.4
40.5
7.3
25.8
193.7
196.6
4.2
394.5
826.4
(3.2)
823.2
823.2
1,217.7
115.4
13.8
44.8
4.0
25.4
203.4
195.5
3.1
402.0
794.3
(2.0)
792.3
792.3
1,194.3
157.7
5.2
2.9
116.8
282.4
507.3
172.9
17.4
980.1
0.3
342.1
35.8
(4.3)
373.9
373.9
1,354.0
24
Appendix
12 months
Jan-28-2011
12 months
Jan-27-2012
12 months
Feb-01-2013
12 months
Jan-31-2014
LTM
12 months
Oct-31-2014
Currency
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Net Income
Depreciation & Amort.
Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles
Depreciation & Amort., Total
Other Amortization
(Gain) Loss From Sale Of Assets
Stock-Based Compensation
Tax Benefit from Stock Options
Other Operating Activities
Change in Acc. Receivable
Change In Inventories
Change in Acc. Payable
Change in Inc. Taxes
Change in Other Net Operating Assets
Cash from Ops.
Capital Expenditure
Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment
Other Investing Activities
Cash from Investing
Short Term Debt Issued
Long-Term Debt Issued
Total Debt Issued
Short Term Debt Repaid
Long-Term Debt Repaid
Total Debt Repaid
Issuance of Common Stock
Repurchase of Common Stock
Common Dividends Paid
Total Dividends Paid
Special Dividend Paid
Other Financing Activities
Cash from Financing
Foreign Exchange Rate Adj.
Net Change in Cash
66.9
26.9
26.9
2.4
0.1
7.7
(8.8)
6.5
(39.0)
(12.8)
11.7
11.9
73.5
(40.5)
(40.5)
(0.8)
(0.8)
26.9
(12.4)
13.7
46.7
121.3
19.3
2.6
22.0
0.0
3.5
17.3
0.1
(21.3)
142.8
(19.0)
(0.1)
(19.1)
(117.3)
(117.3)
(117.3)
(0.4)
6.0
76.2
20.1
2.6
22.7
0.5
(1.3)
(72.1)
(11.0)
(0.6)
14.5
(15.1)
0.1
(15.0)
(5.3)
(5.3)
(5.3)
0.4
(5.4)
49.8
20.5
2.6
23.1
0.1
3.1
14.7
1.4
4.0
96.2
(15.0)
0.0
0.1
(14.9)
(68.8)
(68.8)
(68.8)
0.1
12.6
78.8
19.0
2.6
21.6
0.1
(5.0)
10.0
9.1
0.2
114.9
(9.9)
0.0
(9.9)
(110.9)
(110.9)
(110.9)
0.0
(5.8)
86.6
17.3
2.6
20.0
1.1
0.1
2.0
(0.6)
58.7
24.1
19.5
211.4
(17.4)
0.0
(17.4)
515.0
(2.6)
6.0
(110.9)
(110.9)
(511.4)
(103.9)
(0.9)
89.2
Capital IQ
25