Analytics for Business Decisions

Faculty:
Email:

Nitin Singh
nsingh@ddn.upes.ac.in

Pedagogy: The course is delivered through a combination of lectures and projects supported
by audio-visual media. All the readings and cases are contained in the textbooks/handouts
and will be supplemented by the class lectures.
Some of the questions that we will attempt to address will include the following:
- What is Modeling
- Spreadsheet Uses & Limitations
- Spreadsheet Development Life Cycle
Advanced Excel Modeling
- Goal Seek
- Solver
- Simulation
- Business Models
Automation
Methodology
It is well known that most contemporary business decision problems are characterized by
uncertainty. Further, determining good decisions under uncertainty is often a daunting task.
In terms of how to model and deal with specific situations that involve complexity, scale and
uncertainty, we will cover three main approaches. They are: 1) Simulation modeling
techniques to analyze risk in a business environment, 2) optimization techniques for
determining optimal decision and 3) coverage of statistical decision processes. The course
will follow a blend of lectures and problem solving using spreadsheets and demo of selected
software However, the basic approach to learning is by doing. Accordingly, much of the class
time will involve the exercise of model building. Similarly, you will be spending a good deal
of time outside class working on assignments and cases. You will work on the assignments
and cases in groups. Attach only those exhibits that you directly reference in your summary.
It is therefore important that all statements made in the summary be well supported by facts
derived from the problem itself.

TENTATIVE COURSE OUTLINE

Session

TOPIC/PROBLEM

1.

Course Outline;
Introduction to Pivot Tables -

2.

Introduction to Simulation;
Simulation using @Risk.

3.

New Product Introduction

A Simulation Approach.

4.

Basics of Bonds, Interest Rate Risk and

Duration.

5.

Immunization Strategies Against

Interest Rate Risk

6.

Immunization Strategies Against

Interest Rate Risk

7.

- do -

8.

Basics of Stock Price Movement.

Random Walk and Wiener Process;
Binomial Lattice Model.

9.

Basics of Options Pricing;

Call Options Pricing of Antech Stock
Simulation vs. Binomial Lattice Approach.

10.

Leasing A Real Options Approach

11.

Modeling
Market Share;

12.

Accounts Receivables Analysis;

13.

The Shortest Path Problem

Basics of Dynamic Programming.

14.

Inventory Planning

Stochastic Case.
15.

Optimal Machine Replacement Policy

16.

Conclusion and review

Class Participation/Contribution: We expect you to be prepared before coming to the class. In a typical class
session, it is expected that participants discuss/ share views on the relevant topic. Criteria, that will be used to
judge effective participation include:
- Are points made relevant to the class discussion?
- Are they linked to the comments made?
- Do the comments show clear evidence of proper and insightful analysis of the case data?
- Is there a willingness to participate?
- Is there a willingness to test new ideas?
- Do comments clarify and highlight important aspects of previous comments and lead to a clear statement of
the concepts?
- Is the participant a good listener?
Readings:
-

Applied quantitative finance: Theory and computational tools / W Hardle, T Kleinow, and G Stahl, Springer
2006.
Quantitative analysis for management / Charles P Bonini, Warren H Hausman, and Harold Bierman, Irwins
2006
Practical Management Science/Winston and Albright, Thomson Duxbury, 2006.
Applied statistics with Microsoft Excel, Gerald Keller, Duxbury 2005.

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