24/09/2010

Moon and Tides

Astronomy Briefly
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Why No Predictions for Theoretical Tides?

by Duane Dunkerson

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Why? There is the vagabond Moon, constant Sun,

far Jupiter, and an inconstant Earth.
The earthly and astronomical effects on the tides are
so complex that a theoretical finality is impossible.
Meanwhile, periods of tidal oscillations are
predictable. At least the oscillations could benefit the
business interests. Seagoing commerce had to have
some approach to prediction for the tides.
The first tide predicting machine was designed by
Lord Kelvin. It went into operation in 1873. By
1910 the US Coast and Geodetic Survey had the
Coast and Geodetic Survey Tide-Predicting Machine
No.2. It was eleven feet long, two feet wide, and six
feet high with a weight of 2,500 pounds. Thirty-seven
elements bearing on tidal prediction were
represented by components of the machine. This
machine was used to attempt to predict the tides.
Accompanying the tides are currents. Finding the
velocities of these currents was also attempted by
Machine No. 2. These velocities are a sum of a
series of harmonics of periodic elements of the tides.

Copyright 2004
by Duane
Dunkerson
All Rights Reserved

By 1965 the Table of Tides was still typed by hand.

Then in 1973 predictions were attempted by
computer. This involved two walk-in closets of
punch cards. In 1979 was inaugurated an interactive
phone dial-up prediction service. PCs got into the act
by 1987. Now the seven volumes of the Tide and
Current Prediction Tables are on one CD.
The most recent water levels, within 6 minutes, can
be obtained by phone. One can also get the
information via satellite. A tidal gauge that finds
unusual water heights will automatically send such
notice to the satellite for retransmission to various
ground stations.
This is as close as it gets to knowing the tides.
Michelson in 1913 got microscopically close to tidal
action. He used pipes, one set N-S, another set WE, to measure tides through a microscope. He saw
changes as little as a variance in water level of
1/1000 of an inch. These water heights were about
69% of what theory would have predicted.
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Moon and Tides

Michelson observed the usual decreases in water

levels, the ebb tides, and the increases in water
levels, the flood tides. There are two tides per day,
two high, two low. Between a high and a low there is
usually six hours. The average interval between the
same high tide is about 24 hours and 51 minutes.
This corresponds to two successive southern
passages of the Moon. One tide comes ahead of the
Moon on the earthly side towards the Moon.
Another tidal outward bulge of water is to be found
on the opposite side of the Earth.
The Moon pulls on the Earth. The water can freely
flow and does so, to and from the sublunar point.
Because the earth rotates, the bulges of water move
in waves. The bulge moves ahead of the Moon
because of friction. That is, the Earth rotates faster
than the Moon revolves. From high tide to high tide is
called the establishment of port. For New York, the
e of p is on average at 8 hours and 13 minutes.
Even with a locale pinned down, the water heights of
tides varies since the Moon in its orbit is inclined to
the ecliptic. Because of this, for half a month the
Moon is north of the Earth's equator and for the
other half, it is south of the equator. There is then a
smallish second tide. Twice a month, as the Moon
appears to cross the equator, the second tide is not
observed.
There are also brief periods when the water isn't
going anywhere. There is not ebbing or flooding
during what is called slack water. This doesn't mean
that the Moon has stopped working gravitationally.
In any event the Moon does not lift the water toward
it. It can't do such lifting when its lunar force is nine
million times weaker than the force of Earth's gravity
at the Earth's surface. The tides are produced by a
component of the tidal force of the Moon which
draws water along the earth's surface toward
sublunar and antipodal points.
If the Earth's surfaces were completely submerged
by an ocean of unvarying depth and if the Earth were
to face the Moon at all times, there would be tides
two feet high. But, of course, the oceans are of
varying depth. Shallow water slows wave travel.
Times for high water of two ports 2/10 of a mile
apart may differ if one has shallower water than the
other. Bigger tides arise in water that is more
shallow. The Bay of Fundy has tides of 50 feet.
Other high tides have been found on the east coast of
Patagonia, the Bristol Channel, the coast of
Normandy and in the Hudson Strait. In New
Brunswick at St. John, the river, also called St. John,
flows upstream during flood tide.

www.thespaceguy.com/moontides.htm

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Moon and Tides

In addition to rivers, lakes are also affected by the

lunar tide action. These are effects usually easier to
detail. Lake high tides are opposite the Moon when
the Moon is below the horizon. If the Moon is up,
the water of the lake follows the Moon around the
shore. Low tide goes along the opposing shore. Lake
Michigan, for example, has a tidal difference of 1and
3/4 inches.
It is not only the Moon that rises above the lakes of
Earth. The Sun plays a role in the tides too. At new
or full moon there are higher tides as Sun and Moon
act along the same line. At first and third quarter
(quadrature) of the Moon, there are neap ("neap" from the Greek for "scanty") tides.
Neaped or not, the Moon comes in closer at perigee.
It is 10 per cent closer and then the tides can be
20% greater. Now, by this time this should be
enough to show that the tides don't allow for
prediction. Overcome these various factors and then
there is Jupiter. Yes, Jupiter causes tides. They are
tiny. Nevertheless we are speaking of tides. Tides
are tides. Jovian tides are 10,000,000 less effective
than the familiar lunar causation. The solar
contribution, by the way, is 5/11 of the lunar one.
The Moon, Sun, Jupiter, and other contributors to
celestial mechanics for accurately locating all the
generating forces are simply not enough. You need to
conduct observations per locale for at least more
than 18 years.
In some matters the past provides a comfort zone of
predictability. We know sometimes what happened
first then what came next. Unfortunately the lack of
prediction involving tides reaches back to ancient
times. Actually it is a subsidiary effect of the tides that
has thrown off the calculations for the occurrences of
ancient eclipses. The eclipses happen later than we
would suppose. This is because the earth's rotation is
slowing due to tidal friction. At the same time(s) the
Moon is increasing in speed in its orbit. The tidal
drag is two billion horsepower.
For more uncertainty as to the when or what tides
were or could do, one can go much, much further
back in time as Asimov did in his speculation that the
tides played the key role in the evolution of life. The
tides challenged some of sea life by tossing then up
onto land twice daily. To change you need change like no credit extended unless you have credit. The
agents of change became changed. With the Moon
closer such a long time ago, the tides were more
pronounced. Asimov speculated that perhaps one
needs a sea and Moon and tides. Without these in
existence, evolution like ours could not come about.
www.thespaceguy.com/moontides.htm

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Moon and Tides

It is like us, contrarily, to look ahead and not so far

behind. One can attempt to predict when there will
be a new moon by gathering your own tidal data.
During new and full moon high tides get higher and
low tides get lower. Measurement of your local tides
can lead to a prediction as to when the next new
moon should appear. If you could stick with the
measurement for around 18 years, you could
become fairly accurate in those predictions.

www.thespaceguy.com/moontides.htm

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www.thespaceguy.com/moontides.htm

Moon and Tides

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