Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
13.0%
12.0%
10.0%
4.0% 2.5% inflation + 1% pop growth = 3.5%; but good growth in growing markets and VERY strong brand
18.0%
18.0%
22.0%
11,252,332
50.20
vs
market price
60.66 @ Sept 3
Full Year
6 mos. (proj) act. + proj.
6 mos (actual)
2012
6/30/2013
12/31/2013
2013
2014
4,942,582
3,045,714
2,490,098
5,535,812
6,200,109
Projection Period
2015
Terminal
4,176,627
4,662,264
Growth
11.6%
6.0%
12.0%
12.0%
6,820,120
7,092,925
10.0%
4.0%
2,749,224
66%
3,106,288
67%
3,222,394
65%
1,924,402
63%
1,427,403
1,555,976
1,720,188
1,121,312
% of sales
34%
1,020,371
% of motorcycle sales
33%
926,832
24%
407,032
EBIT Margin %
35%
485,033
16%
970,066
19%
629,144
742,406
636,279
405,177
13.5%
15.0%
20.9%
16.3%
9.7%
1,979,053
35.75%
485,033
20%
3,556,759
64%
890,210
37%
977,782
20%
1,599,888
18%
1,008,987
1,116,020
18.2%
1,227,622
1,560,443
18.0%
18.0%
22.0%
36,444
36,444
36,444
14.1%
Investment Income
Interest Expense (don't include in unlevered CFs)
Income Before Taxes - unlevered (EBT)
5,442
132,963
7,369
4,164
4,164
8,328
90,357
45,266
46,033
23,090
23,090
46,180
412,474
762,107
749,775
640,443
409,341
1,017,315
1,152,463
1,264,065
1,596,887
142,451
354,025
401,057
439,895
555,717
34.8%
412,474
762,107
749,775
640,443
34.8%
266,890
34.8%
663,289
751,406
34.8%
34.8%
824,170
1,041,170
Full Year
3 full years historical
2010
2011
6 mos (actual)
Projection Period
2015
2012
7/1/2012
12/31/2012
2013
2014
Terminal
266,890
663,289
751,406
824,170
442,865
8%
496,009
8%
545,610
8%
567,434
8%
81,329
53,144
49,601
21,824
248,393
206,154
226,769
255,345
412,474
762,107
749,775
640,443
NWC = AR + INV - AP
NWC as % of sales projection
363,482
8.7%
381,332
8.2%
402,539
8.1%
361,536
5.9%
8%
1,041,170
NWC
IncrementalProjected NWC Cash Flow
Add:Depreciation
248,246
95%
90%
168,659 ?
97%
124,196
95%
93%
179,988
4.0%
180,416
3.9%
69,267
3.7%
130,733
200,000
2.3%
217,004
3.6%
95%
95%
90%
167,730
173,959
148%
3.5%
238,704
283,717
3.5%
4%
200,000
492,990
756,078
738,018
260,354 $
630,353 $
687,412 $
762,634 $
990,974
6/30/2016
11,010,824
Assumed cash flow date : mid-year convention
Periods
Discount Factors (calculated using mid-year convention)
Discounted Free Cash Flows
10/1/2013
6/30/2014
6/30/2015
0.25
1.0
2.0
2.0
0.970
0.885
0.783
0.783
608,329 $
597,255 $
252,519
Add: Book value of cash & cash equivalents at 7/1/2012 (I used moto only, p 103 12/31/12)
863,350
Less: BV of Debt = Short-term debt + LT debt, @ 7/1/2012 (again, I used moto only from 10K p 103)
303,000
Less: BV of Pension Obligations = Pension and retirement healthcare and other LT liab @ 7/1/2012
330,294
Plus: BV of HDFS (book shareholder's equity in HDFS @12/31/12 from 10K, p. 103)
8,623,090
86%
941,083 $
4.20 /share
11,252,332
Harley Equity Value (Enterprise Value plus cash less book value of debt)
Estimation of seasonality
10,081,193
6/30/2015
2011
$ 4,662,264
2012
$
4,942,582
avg
51.5%
2,842,416
57.5%
55%
48.5%
2,100,166
42.5%
$ 2,259,476
projected 2013
Page 1
2,490,098
5,535,812
file:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3/261697010.xlsx
Scenario Summary
Current Values:
Changing Cells:
discount_rate
12%
Near_term_sales_growth_2014
14%
Near_term_sales_growth_2015
12%
Terminal_Sales___Cash_Flow_grow
4%
EBIT_margin_2013
15%
EBIT_margin_2014
18%
EBIT_margin___Terminal
22%
Result Cells:
HOG_equity_value_per_share
$
57.01 $
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
base case
13%
12%
10%
4%
18%
18%
22%
50.20
bad recession
BIG rebound
class tester
18%
-3%
-3%
2%
13%
11%
15%
10%
12%
12%
4%
18%
22%
27%
15%
80%
6%
4%
15%
15%
18%
19.74 $
89.09 $
50.00
13%
12%
10%
4%
18%
18%
22%
50.20
Schedule 2
Motorcycle and
related SALES
Operating Income
(EBIT)
yoy % change
Operating Margin
~ EBIT margin
year
2005
5,342,214
1,464,962
2005
27.4%
2006
5,800,686
8.6%
as % of 2006
1,597,153
2006
27.5%
2007
5,726,848
-1.3%
0.99
933,843
2007
16.3%
2008
5,578,414
-2.6%
0.96
684,235
2008
12.3%
2009
4,287,130
-23.1%
0.74
400,000
2009
9.3%
2010
4,176,627
-2.6%
0.72
407,032
2010
9.7%
2011
4,662,264
11.6%
0.80
629,144
2011
13.5%
2012
4,942,582
6.0%
0.85
742,406
2012
15.0%
5,535,812
12.0%
0.95
1,008,987
18.2%
16.6%
16.3%
12.3%
13.5% 15.0%
9.3%
9.7%
18.2%
Schedule 3
Simple Working Capital calculations for Motorcycle Only
3 full years historical & 6 mos actual
2010
2011
2012
6/30/2013
AR
262,382
219,039
230,079
253,819
+ Inventory
326,446
418,006
393,524
307,717
200,000
- AP
225,346
255,713
221,064
= simple NWC
363,482
381,332
402,539
361,536
motorcycle sales
4,176,627
4,662,264
4,942,582
6,091,428
8.1%
5.9%
average
7.7%
% of moto sales
8.7%
8.2%
looks like the flex-manufacturing is working, and the number is trending down
Schedule 4
Cost of Equity using CAPM
Calculation of Cost of Equity for Harley Davidson WACC
Inputs:
(A)
(B)
(C)
3.40%
3.40%
3.40%
(a)
Beta
1.18
2.00
2.23
(b)
5.0%
5.0%
6.0%
(c)
9.3%
13.4%
16.8%
(d)
(a)
Source: US Treasury website; 20 year Treasury rate /www.treasury.gov/ @ 8/2/2013; 20-year rate 3.39%
(b)
(c)
Source for MRP%: academic studies and my own opinion and more recent data
(d)
=
=
3.40%
FF-Beta
1.36
MRP
5.0%
SMB Premium
3.72%
HML Premium
4.84%
18.8%
Risk-free + FF-Beta X MRP + SMB prem + HML Prem
Schedule 5
Calculation of Cost of Debt - use bloomberg or notes to financials
or you can use one of the credit curves below
Schedule 6
WACC Calculation
# shares of equity
224,139
cost of equity
total LT debt
tax rate
1.8%
$
12,751,680
97.6%
2.4%
WACC
13.1%
224,139
50.20
11,252,332
cost of equity
total debt
303,000
tax rate
WACC
1.8%
$
11,555,332
% equity
97.4%
% debt
2.6%
13.1%