Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
MATT QVORTRUP
WITH A FOREWORD BY SAIRA KHAN
THE AUTHOR
The aim of the Centre for Policy Studies is to develop and promote policies
that provide freedom and encouragement for individuals to pursue the
aspirations they have for themselves and their families, within the security and
obligations of a stable and law-abiding nation. The views expressed in our
publications are, however, the sole responsibility of the authors. Contributions
are chosen for their value in informing public debate and should not be taken
as representing a corporate view of the CPS or of its Directors. The CPS
values its independence and does not carry on activities with the intention of
affecting public support for any registered political party or for candidates at
election, or to influence voters in a referendum.
ISBN No. 1 905389 45 0
Centre for Policy Studies, February 2007
CONTENTS
Introduction
2.
3.
10
4.
27
5.
Conclusion
33
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Dr. Helena Catt, Chief Electoral Commissioner of
New Zealand, Professor John Matsusaka, University of Southern
California and Chairman of the Initiative and Referendum Institute
and Nigel Smith, VoxScot, for advice and help. In addition,
support towards research for this Study was given by the Institute
for Policy Research.
I am of course solely responsible for any possible errors.
FOREWORD
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
trigger a referendum on any issue, subject only to achieving a set
number of signatures on a petition. This pamphlet presents an
overview of the history of the Citizens Initiative elsewhere in the
world, followed by an empirical assessment of the advantages and
disadvantages of its use, including the policy implications.
Supply-side economics argues that a supply creates its own
demand. Can we also talk of supply-side politics? This paper
demonstrates that a supply of democratic institutions could create
a demand for democracy by showing that the use of Initiatives
leads to greater participation and interest in politics.
This could therefore be an important step in restoring faith in
British democracy.
Saira Khan
Chair
OUR SAY campaign
www.our-say.org
February 2007
Saira Khan is chair of the OUR SAY campaign and came to public
attention when she appeared in the hit BBC series, The Apprentice. She
takes a keen interest in politics, appearing on Any Questions, Radio Five
Live and This Week as well as speaking at the POWER Inquiry
conference. She has contributed to the Sunday Times, Daily Mirror and
the Spectator. Saira presents BBC1s Beat the Boss and has recently
launched her own business miamoo, a range of baby skincare products.
ii
SUMMARY
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
Citizens Initiatives in Europe
While referendums are widespread in Western democracies, the
Citizens Initiative is relatively rare. All but two of the countries in
Europe (Belgium and Bosnia) have provisions for referendums in
their constitutions, while the Initiative is in use in just six
European countries.4
After the Second World War, no countries in Europe with the
exception of Switzerland had the Initiative.5 This changed after the
fall of the Berlin Wall. Provisions for the Initiative have now been
introduced in the Ukraine, Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia and Lithuania.
Voters in Hungary, Lithuania and Slovakia, as well as in Italy and
Slovenia, also have the right to demand a referendum on a decision
made by the government. But the Initiative is still rare in longestablished democracies. New Zealand, Switzerland and several US
states are the only countries outside the former communist bloc
which allow their citizens to initiate legislation at the national level.
In addition, in several countries, such as Austria and Italy,
voters have a right to propose legislation, which will then be
debated in Parliament. However, these respectively Volksbegehren
and iniziative di legge populare are used sparingly. In Italy, this is
because Parliament is not obliged to put these either on the
agenda or to a popular vote6 while in Austria, where 100,000
eligible voters may demand that a measure is debated in
parliament, the Nationalrat is in no way obliged to pass the
___________________________________________________________
4
Britain is the odd one out here as it does not have a written constitution,
and therefore no constitutional provisions for referendums. However, it is
now recognised that referendums [have become] the established vehicles
for constitutional change. T Wright, British Politics. A Very Short
Introduction, , Oxford University Press, 2003.
In Switzerland, voters are only allowed to initiate constitutional changes. This
requires the signatures of at least 100,000 citizens. See A Treschel and H
Kriesi, The Referendum as the Centre-Piece of Democracy in M Gallagher
and P V Uleri (ed.s), The Referendum Experience in Europe, Macmillan, 1996.
P V Uleri, Italy: referendums and initiatives from the origins to the crisis
of the republic, in M Gallagher and P V Uleri (ed.s), op. cit.
2
INTRODUCTION
proposed legislation.7 Indeed, by the mid-1990s, only three out
of a total of 16 petitions had any effect on legislation.8 Citizens in
Poland can also put forward legislation to be debated by
Parliament and a similar provision was to have been part of the
now defunct European Constitution.
In the UK, according to the ancient constitutional doctrine, the
people are subjects, not citizens. The British constitution knows
nothing of the people. Introducing the Citizens Initiative would,
some argue, therefore be a colossal step. However, the Citizens
Initiative already exists in the UK, albeit in an extremely restricted
form: the Local Government Act 2000 granted voters in English
and Welsh cities the right to demand a vote on whether to have an
elected mayor. So far, only 35 cities have demanded such a
referendum. Of course the right to demand a vote on one
particular institutional change is a far cry from the right enjoyed
by citizens in other countries. The experience shows that there is a
precedent for citizen-initiated votes in the UK and that it has not
encouraged a higher turnout in the cities where such polls have
been held, possibly because the powers of the prospective mayors
have been rather limited.10
While Initiatives in some of the Eastern and Central European
countries have rarely succeeded due to harsh turnout requirements
(see Chapter 4), there are some examples of high-profile legislation
enacted as a result of a citizen-initiated process. For example, in 1996
citizens in Lithuania had the opportunity to vote on an Initiative
which stipulated that at least half of the [national] budget [must be
allocated] to citizens social needs (76% supported the proposal).
___________________________________________________________
7
8
10
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
Table 1: Provisions for Initiatives in Western Democracies
Country
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
New Zealand
Switzerland
Slovakia
Ukraine
Threshold
200,000
10%
300,000
10 %
100,000
350,000
3,000,000
Type of Initiative
No. of Initiatives
1
Constitutional & Legislative
2
Constitutional
6
Constitutional
2
Constitutional
145
4
Legislative
0
INTRODUCTION
Britain, it would also be useful to look at experiences in countries
where the measure has been introduced more recently.
As David Butler and Austin Ranney noted in a pioneering
study, there are two worlds of direct democracy:12
___________________________________________________________
12
CHAPTER TWO
___________________________________________________________
14
15
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
State
South Dakota
Utah
Oregon
Montana
Oklahoma
Maine, Missouri
Arkansas, Colorado
Arizona, California
Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Washington
Michigan
North Dakota, Mississippi
Massachusetts (Indirect Initiative)
Mississippi process overturned by the states Supreme Court
Alaska
Florida (constitutional Initiative only), Wyoming (indirect Initiative)
Illinois (Constitutional Initiative only)
Mississippi (reinstated)
Source:
17
18
CHAPTER THREE
21
10
23
24
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
can carefully scrutinise the bills. As Edmund Burke declared a
couple of centuries ago:25
27
31
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
33
34
37
38
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
take many months, even years. The procedure requires the same help
that legislators get from the State Office of Legislative Legal
Services (the bill drafting staff). The arduous task of getting on the
ballot, the normal prospect of being substantially outspent in the
campaign, the risk that any flaw is ammunition for the opposition,
and the inevitability of court challenges upon passage provide
important incentives for proponents to be both careful and
reasonable in drafting their measure.
It is, therefore, difficult to conclude that Initiatives are less
likely to be the product of deliberation than laws passed by
representatives without direct citizen involvement.
Policy implications
It is often claimed that direct legislation by the people is likely to
result in populist policies which may not necessarily be desirable,
at least to the political classes: an example of this would be the reintroduction of the death penalty.
There are, however, no examples of this happening outside the
US. In fact, referendums on the death penalty have resulted in its
abolition, such as in Ireland in 2001. There are, however, examples
of states in the US where voters have opted for the restoration of
capital punishment. Yet, there are also states where this decision has
been taken by representative assemblies. Indeed, of the 38 states
that have the death penalty, only three introduced it after a
referendum. Based on a statistical analysis, Frederick J Boehmke
has found evidence to suggest that Initiative states are less likely to
adopt the death penalty than states that do not allow voters to enact
legislation through Initiatives. As he puts it, if a state were to
suddenly acquire the initiative, the model predicts that it would be
almost 5% less likely to adopt capital punishment.41 However, as
Boehmke himself pointed out, this is not necessarily the direct or
___________________________________________________________
41
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
even indirect consequence of the Initiative. Cultural factors
probably play a more dominant role; states with a large number of
religious fundamentalists are significantly more likely to adopt
capital punishment than are states with secular majorities.42
It is also often claimed that minorities suffer where direct
democracy is in operation. While the Initiative has occasionally
been used to limit the rights of minority groups, such as in the
case of Proposition 189 (which sought to ban illegal immigrants
from all but emergency treatment in hospitals), it is important to
note that all such measures have been struck down by the courts.
Democracy, no matter how perfect, always requires the rule of law
and minority protection.
It is certainly the case that a limited number of Initiatives have
targeted minority groups, such as the constitutional measures
aimed at preventing gay-marriages in the 2004 and 2006
Initiatives. But this is not a tendency that can be ascribed to direct
democracy alone; indeed legislatures in states without provisions
for Initiatives have passed similar measures.
In fact, it might be argued that a sound dose of direct
democracy can also remedy an over-eager legislatures sins of
commission. A recent example of this is provided by the poll on
abortion in South Dakota in November 2006, when voters
overturned an abortion law enacted by the legislature, which
barred almost all abortions, including for rape and incest victims,
and allowed them only if a mothers life was in jeopardy. The
contention that voters are always reactionary and opposed to
change was also refuted by a successful initiative in Missouri,
where a majority of the voters supported an initiative that allowed
stem-cell research, something which the legislature had opposed.
___________________________________________________________
42
Boehmke, ibid.
18
States with the initiative process are more likely to adopt policies
that constrain how legislators govern; they have higher adoption
rates of term-limits, supermajority requirements for tax-increases
and tax expenditure limitsInitiative states are more likely to
adopt election reforms, such as campaign finance restriction.
In other words, states with provisions for Initiatives have
adopted measures that are favoured by Republicans (such as tax
expenditure limits) as well as measures which are usually favoured
by the Democrats (such as campaign finance restrictions). This
view is supported in a study by John Matsusaka in which he
concluded:45
44
45
See E Luce and A Remtulla, Iraq War decimates Republican vote, The
Financial Times, 8 October 2006.
C J Tolbert and D A Smith, Representation and Direct Democracy in the
United States, in Representation, Vol 42, No 1, 2006.
J Matsusaka, For the Many or the Few: The Initiative, Public Policy and
American Democracy, University of Chicago Press, 2004.
19
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
While this is the case in the US, it does not, of course, imply that
the same would be true in other countries if citizens were allowed to
trigger votes on policy issues. The enactment of particular public
policies depends to a large extent upon political culture. Yet there is
some evidence that the Initiative has some of the same effects
elsewhere. According to a Swiss study, the evidence suggests that:46
47
48
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
There is empirical support for the view that money has little
impact on voting outcomes. For example, in the case of the
initiative that broke the 33-year dry spell of successful attempts,
the 1982 price control initiative, the sponsors spent
extraordinarily little on the campaign... they didnt even purchase
posters to advertise their position.
Such results do not prove that money is completely ineffectual.
As there is still a possibility that money can have some effect on
the outcome, campaign groups still spend money on campaigning
activity.
As Kobach concludes:51
Ibid.
22
1978
1980
1982
1984
44.7%
59.9%
46.8%
54.5%
39.0%
55.0%
39.8%
51.5%
53
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
57% to 55%.54 More recently, Daniel Smith and Caroline Tolbert
found that each additional Initiative on the ballot during a midterm election in America increases turnout by an average of 1.2%.
They also found that citizens were more knowledgeable, interested
and engaged in politics when there are propositions on the ballot.55
An initial analysis of the 2006 midterm elections also shows
higher turnout in states with Initiatives on the ballot. Average
turnout for the 18 states with Initiatives was 45.1% while the 32
states without Initiatives averaged 39.6%. Turnout across the US
was 40.4%.56 Initiatives are clearly not the only factor in
determining turnout, with some non-Initiative states registering
high turnout and some Initiative states with low numbers voting
but, as Table 4 shows, Initiative states tend to experience higher
turnout; 13 of the 18 are in the top 50% of states ranked by
turnout, and only one is in the bottom 25%.
Election officials in several states but particularly in South
Dakota attributed high turnouts to the presence of controversial
Initiatives on the ballot. In South Dakota, where turnout was
almost 58%, there were eight Initiatives, including proposals to
increase tobacco tax to fund health and education services; stop
state aircraft being used for non-official business; limit property
tax increases; legalise marijuana for medical use and abolish the
video lottery (the state-run network of gambling machines). There
was also a Popular Referendum (where citizens collected enough
signatures to challenge a law passed by the legislature) on
abortion. Sue Roust, auditor in South Dakotas Minnehaha
___________________________________________________________
54
55
56
MEDIUM TURNOUT
STATES
State
Turnout (%)
LOW TURNOUT
STATES
TurnState
out (%)
Minnesota
59.19
Ohio
44.64
California
South Dakota
57.95
Virginia
43.82
Nevada
36.05
35.8
Montana
55.58
Pennsylvania
43.25
Arkansas
35.73
Vermont
54.89
Idaho
42.82
Alabama
35.5
Maine
54.19
New Hamp.
42.04
Oklahoma
35.31
Wisconsin
52.20
Kansas
42.03
Indiana
35.23
Michigan
51.51
Washington
41.57
New York
33.82
Rhode Is.
51.21
Delaware
40.86
South Carol.
33.67
Oregon
50.69
Colorado
40.73
Utah
33.17
Wyoming
49.71
Maryland
40.54
Georgia
32.11
Mass.
49.03
Tennessee
39.96
West Virginia
31.51
Missouri
48.30
New Mexico
39.87
Texas
30.11
Connecticut
47.39
Kentucky
39.00
Arizona
29.39
Iowa
47.32
Hawaii
38.60
North Carol.
28.89
Nebraska
46.09
Illinois
38.46
Louisiana
26.81
Alaska
44.77
New Jersey
38.18
Mississippi
26.8
___________________________________________________________
57
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
It should be noted, however, that the positive relationship
between Initiatives and turnout has not been found in other
countries, where large numbers of frequent referendums can lead
to a lower turnout.58
___________________________________________________________
58
CHAPTER FOUR
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
vote on whether the President should be directly elected. The
party expected that the direct election of the executive would
boost the Communists chances of securing the election of one of
the candidates. However, the plan failed to meet the 50% turnout
quorum as only 9% of the voters cast a ballot.59 Initiatives in
Slovakia, on issues such as bringing forward the date of the next
election, have also fallen due to low turnout.
The Ukraine has held one constitutional Initiative, a
controversial poll in 2000. The Initiative was sponsored by then
President Kutschma, who wanted the powers to suspend
parliament. The Initiative was challenged by deputies who argued
that the signatures did not meet the geographical requirements in
the Constitution. In the Ukraine a constitutional Initiative must be
supported by three million voters with at least 100,000 in more
than two-thirds of the constituencies. However this challenge was
rejected by the Supreme Court, and the voters overwhelmingly
approved the proposal (85%) in the vote on 15 January 2000. The
lack of success of other proposals for Initiatives in the Ukraine is
perhaps explained by these rather strict signature requirements,
which are intended to secure that the Russian-speaking minority
does not fall prey to proposals from the Ukrainian-speaking
majorities.
Citizens in Latvia have a full range of Initiative and
referendum rights but the restrictions and framework are rather
complicated and not very citizen-friendly.60 The support of 10%
of the population is needed to trigger an Initiative and turnout
must be 50% of the number who voted in the last parliamentary
election. Constitutional amendments must be supported by half of
the electorate. In 1999, an Initiative proposing one of three
___________________________________________________________
59
60
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
chose to introduce the device. This was in large measure a result
of a proposal by the National Party which wanted to challenge the
ruling socialist administration. In a policy manifesto in 1992 the
party proposed a procedure whereby non-binding referenda can
be held on any issue that attains the signatures of 10% of eligible
voters on a petition seeking such a referendum.63
Initiatives are often and wrongly seen as alternatives to
representative democracy. This was not the view taken by the
majority who voted for the introduction of the Initiative in New
Zealand. As Chris Fletcher MP noted:64
64
65
www.betterdemocracy.co.nz
31
SUPPLY-SIDE POLITICS
The other referendum held in 1999 asked: Should there be a
reform of our justice system placing greater emphasis on the
needs of victims, providing restitution and compensation for them
and imposing minimum sentences and hard labour for all serious
violent offences? This measure passed by 91.7%. Although the
referendums provisions were not binding on Parliament, some of
the measures supported by the public have been subsequently
introduced.
Since 1999, there have been no new Initiatives and none are
currently being proposed. There is a danger that the Initiative
may now fall into disuse as people use alternative ways of
persuading politicians to support particular causes.
The experience in New Zealand shows that, if introduced in a
restrictive way, the Initiative will not re-engage the interest of
voters nor reduce mistrust of politicians. In New Zealand, the key
limiting factor has been that the vote is not binding and so votes
have not resulted in legislation. As Caroline Morris has noted:
upon close inspection, the drafting of the CIR was poor and did
not result in the intended aim of involving citizens more in
government decision-making. However, there is pressure to alter
the legislation, according to Morris, to make the Act more
workable.67
It is worth noting that the New Zealand system has not led to
populist measures, such as the reintroduction of the death
penalty, being proposed. It is interesting for what has not been
introduced. While citizens have a right to introduce controversial
matters, they have, by and large, refrained from doing so. This is
a fact that should be borne in mind when considering the merits
of introducing the Initiative into the UK.
___________________________________________________________
67
CHAPTER FIVE
CONCLUSION
IN THE EARLY 1980S, politicians especially those on the centreright spoke of supply-side economics. According to this law of
political economics: A supply creates its own demand. What was
true for economics seems also to be true for democracy: a greater
supply of democracy creates a demand for political participation.
Citizens Initiatives, where the requirements imposed are
reasonable and the results are binding, tend to result in greater
participation and interest in democracy. Keith Joseph one of the
early advocates of supply-side economics on the British political
scene once said: if you take responsibility away from the people
you make them irresponsible.
It follows that the opposite is true: if you give people more
responsibility, they may act more responsibly. The empirical
evidence suggests that contrary to what opponents claim the
Initiative does not result in populist legislation and ill-considered
laws. Rather, governments tend to be more responsive in states
and countries that employ the Initiative.
The Citizens Initiative is not a panacea. No political institution
is. But all too often opponents of direct democracy fail to
acknowledge the real deficiencies in a pure system of
representative democracy and the real advantages of giving
people the chance to make political decisions themselves. A
quarter of a century after the heyday of supply-side economics it
may be time for supply-side politics.
33