Sie sind auf Seite 1von 15

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS:

GLOBAL EXPERIENCE AND


ECONOMIC BENEFITS

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

WHAT IS LNG

Natural Gas cooled down to


approximately 161C
The natural gas is condensed
into a liquid
Mass is then reduced 600
times

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

THE LNG VALUE CHAIN

Liquefaction

Shipping

Regasification

~1 USD/MMBtu

~0.4 USD/MMBtu

~0.4 USD/MMBtu

1 ton LNG = 52 MMBtu = 15.3 MWh 1.300 m3 of natural gas

*)

OCTOBER 2010
LNG
*) Depending of heat value

WORLD LNG SUPPLIERS AND MARKETS


Major markets

Major suppliers
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

A Japan & Korea


B North America
C Mediterranean
D North West Europe
E India
F Taiwan

Algeria
Nigeria
Qatar, Oman & UAE
Indonesia & Malaysia
Australia
Trinidad & Tobago
Egypt

12

B
01

A
07

06
02

03

18

05

55

04

36

03

E
04

Japan & Korea

05

Source: BP statistical Review 2010

WORLD LNG SUPPLIERS AND MARKETS


Major markets

Major suppliers
01
02
03
04
05
06
07

Algeria
Nigeria
Qatar, Oman & UAE
Indonesia & Malaysia
Australia
Trinidad & Tobago
Egypt

D
C

B
01

02

12

36

Middle East

07

06

39

A Japan & Korea


B North America
C Mediterranean
D North West Europe
E India
F Taiwan

03

E
04

05

Source: BP statistical Review 2010

LNG PRICES IS USUALLY LINKED TO OIL


USD/
1000 m3

LNG doesnt have a common


price denominator as known
from oil (i.e. Brent or WTI)

EU LNG import price span

Average European LNG price

German import price

800
700
600
500
400

In European markets it is Brent


or NBP

200
100

Gas price

mar-10

jan-10

nov-09

sep-09

jul-09

maj-09

mar-09

jan-09

nov-08

sep-08

jul-08

maj-08

mar-08

jan-08

0
nov-07

LNG for Japan usually links to


JCC crude notation

300

sep-07

Instead LNG is priced against


the destined market

Crude oil parity


S-curve

Henry Hub is widely used in US


market

Illustrative

Brent
OCTOBER 2010
LNG

Source: IEA, BAFA, Japanese Ministry of Finance

CASE: JAPANESE LNG PRICES


750

1-6 month

20

600

15

450

10

300

150

2008-01-01
Parity

2008-07-01
Indonisia

2009-01-01
Qatar

2009-07-01
Nigeria

2010-01-01

Australia

EUR/'000 m3

USD/MMBtu

25

2010-07-01

Henry Hub

NBP
OCTOBER 2010
LNG

Source: Thompson Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Finance

WHY LNG IN THE


BALTIC

Security of Supply
Diversity of Supply
Flexibility

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

THE PRESENT SITUATION FOR SECURITY OF


SUPPLY IN EUROPE

High

low

OCTOBER 2010
LNG
Source: Ramboll Security of Supply index (RAMSOS)

RECOMMENDATIONS FROM BEMIP


/

LNG terminals planned or under construction

Substantial investment in
infrastructure
Amber PolLit
Balticconnector
At least one LNG terminal
Strengthening of existing
infrastructure between Baltic
states

Balticconnector

Promote reverse flow in Yamal


pipeline
Amber PolLit

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

HOW IS IT DONE

Thorough planning
Patience
Brave decisions

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

BUILDING A LNG TERMINAL TAKES TIME


Feasibility/FEED
EIA
Permetting

18-24 months
Project award
Construction

36-42 months
First gas
Commissioning

4-6 months

Supplier
negotiations
Business processes
IT systems
Financial and legal
structure

60

Months

OCTOBER 2010
LNG
Note: Assuming a larger scale base load terminal

THERE ARE ECONOMIES OF SCALE


CAPEX split on work
500
Equipment

Million Euro per BCM capacity

20

Materials

33

400

Prefabrication
Construction

14

Design & PM

300

14

Insurance & certif ication

16

Contingency

200

100

0
0

10

12

Total capacity of terminal (BCM)


Existing terminals

Planned terminals
OCTOBER 2010
LNG

WHAT IS YOUR DESIRED RISK APPETITE


Non-Exhaustive!
Commercial issues

Technical/operational issues

Number of suppliers
FOB vs. CIF
Underlying indexation
Rely on spot cargoes

EPC or several tenders


Operational organisation
Gas quality

Planning/permitting issues

Financial/structuring issues

Third party access


Regulatory setup (ie what level of
tariffs can you expect)

Capital structure
Project financing
Strategic partners
Company structure
Special purpose financing (EBRD, EIB
etc.)

OCTOBER 2010
LNG

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION

Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com


Jack M Kristensen
Director, Studies and planning
E-mail: JCKK@ramboll.comm
Tel: (+45) 5161 5670
OCTOBER 2010
LNG

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen