Sample of A Project Proposal

Final year project proposal
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
IPCC
Inter governmental panel on climate change
NAPA
National adaptional plan for action
UBOS
Uganda bureau of statistics
UMD
Uganda Meteorological Department
SRES
Special report on emission scenarios
GCM
Global climate models
FAO
Food and agriculture organization
DWD
Directorate of water development
CWR
Crop water requirement
ETO
Reference evapotranspiration rate
KC
Crop coefficient
ETC
Crop evapotranspiration rate
Tibow Al 00/UG/12263
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ABSTRACT
Global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentration has been widely accepted.
Natural and human systems are expected to be exposed to direct effects of temperature and
precipitation change. The agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. Thus, climate
change can have serious implications on the agro-based national economy of Uganda. Limited
studies have been carried out to analyze the impacts of climate change in a national level. However,
impacts of climate change in the basin level have not been quantified yet. Moreover, spatial and
temporal variability of climate change might be hazardous in a local level. Considering these facts,
this study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity in the
Sezibwa river basin.
To evaluate local effects of climate change, Statistical tools will be used in the trend analysis and
scenario development of climatic variables. Assessment of crop water use and productivity in the
basin will be carried out using (i) weather data and (ii) weather data modified by plausible future
climate change through widely accepted CROPWAT computer model.
Keywords:
Climate change, Water Scarcity, Agriculture, Evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, Sezibwa
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Table of Contents
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................................. ii
CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................................... 1
1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Back ground ............................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Problem statement ................................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Justification ............................................................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 3
1.4.1 Main Objective..................................................................................................................................... 3
1.4.2 Specific Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER TWO .......................................................................................................................................... 4
2.0 Literature review ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 General .................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Global Climate Change ........................................................................................................................... 4
2.2.1 Global Temperature change ................................................................................................................. 5
2.2.2 Global Precipitation change ................................................................................................................. 5
2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective ............................................................ 6
2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change .................................................................................................... 6
2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 7
2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 8
2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM)............................................................................................................. 9
2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC) ........................................................................................................................... 9
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2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC) ................................................................................................ 10

2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration ....................................................................................... 11
2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand ............................................................................................. 11
2.9 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity....................................................................................... 12
CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................... 13
3.0 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................................................ 13
3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin .......................................... 14
3.2.1 Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 14
3.1.2Data analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 15
3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by means soil
sampling and maps ...................................................................................................................................... 15
3.3.1 Development of Maps ........................................................................................................................ 15
3.3.2Soil sampling and analysis .................................................................................................................. 16
3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability and climate
change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050) projection. ....................... 16
3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change scenarios and
carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future demand with the available water.
.................................................................................................................................................................... 17
3.5.1 Yield reduction................................................................................................................................... 17
3.5.1 Water balance analysis ....................................................................................................................... 17
3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the catchment for
the present and future (2050)projection ...................................................................................................... 18
3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 18
3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 19
3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements .......................................................................................................... 20
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LIST OF FIGURES
Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several ............................ 5

Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997) ................................................. 6
Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998) ................................................. 8
Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement ................................................................................................... 9
Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient....................................................................................................... 10
Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration.............................................................................................. 10
Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment ................ 13
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source ....................................................... 14

Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT ...................................... 16
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CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Back ground
Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over
periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It is a change in the average weather
conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average.
Globally, it is a known fact that climate change is the single greatest environmental threat to life
on earth. It not only impacts on our environment physically and economically, it also affects us
socially and culturally. There is need therefore to prioritize activities that respond to our urgent
and immediate needs to adapt to climate change.
Climate change is accelerated by the increase in green house gas concentration in the atmosphere
with industrialized developed countries contributing 60% of the total global emissions. (IPCC,
2001)
Historical climate records show that Africa has already experienced a warming of 0.7C, with
Global models predicting a further increase at a rate of 0.2- 0.5C per decade (IPCC, 2001).Over
the past two decades climate change has increasingly become recognized as a serious threat to
sustainable development, with current and projected impacts on areas such as environment,
agriculture, energy, human health, food security, economic activity, natural resources and
physical infrastructure.
In Uganda, there is already evidence of climate change as a result of global warming. According
to National Adaptation Plan of Action 2007, the frequency of droughts has increased. For
example, seven droughts were experienced between 1991 and 2007. One of the permanent
examples of the effect of global warming is the gradual disappearances of tropical ice caps
around Mt Kilimanjaro and Rwenzori (NAPA Uganda 2007).
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Faced with the problem of high population growth rates of 3.3% of which 73% are dependant on
rain fed agriculture for their livelihood (UBOS, 2005), Uganda as a country is very vulnerable to
the effects of climate change. And as the population increases, Uganda's previously cherished
climate is drastically changing from the bimodal rainfall pattern. This has been attributed to
environmental degradation coupled with global warming (UMD, 2008) making rainfall
dependant agriculture unreliable.
Thus, the impact that has been caused by climate change that is coupled with the current
economic crisis, will lead to the reversal of the achievements made towards the Millennium
Development Goals.
Therefore, in order to fully adapt to the effects of climate change, there is thus an urgent need to
determine the effects of climate change on crop water requirements and to predict the impact of
future climate scenarios on crop production.
1.2 Problem statement
Rapid
population
growth,
increased
urbanization
and
industrialization,
uncontrolled
environmental degradation and pollution are some of the challenges affecting the utilization of
freshwater resources in Uganda today (Phillips P Lukwiya., 2009). These problems have further
been aggravated by the gradual increase in the average temperature of the earth. Temperature
and rainfall being decisive factors for production of agriculture in Uganda, the sudden change in
these factors due to climate change has rendered rain fed agriculture unreliable thus aggravating
problems of food security in the country. As a result, persistent food shortages, flooding and
draughts are unacceptably high and periodic famine has become a common phenomenon in
many parts of Uganda.
1.3 Justification
The study will avail information on the impact of climate change on crop water requirements, the
data obtained, will therefore be used to predict the impact of future climate scenarios on crop
production.
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Also, food security with in river sezibwa catchment will be increased by the sustainable use of
the catchment and the incorporation of adoptive strategies within farming methods to reduce the
effects of climate change.
The data obtained will also help the country develop a national climate change policy, climate
change research agenda, district capacity building programmes and sensitization campaigns.
1.4 Objectives
1.4.1 Main Objective
The main objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on crop water demand
and productivity in river Sezibwa catchment.
1.4.2 Specific Objectives
To obtain and analyze climatic data of river sezibwa basin in order to identify changes in
the climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity)
To identify and analyze different soil types and land use within the catchment by means
soil sampling and maps
To determine relative crop evapotranspiration in various climate variability and climate

change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future (2050)projection
Quantify other types ( domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand
within the
catchment for the present and future (2050)projection
To quantify the impacts of climate change on crop yield in different climate change
scenarios and carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and future
demand with the available water.
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CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature review
2.1 General
Weather is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around the earth distinguished by temperature,
wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements. They are part of the daily experience of
human beings and are essential for health, food production and well-being. Climate refers to the
average weather in terms of the mean and its variability over a certain time-span and a certain
area; it varies from place to place depending upon latitude and other geographical factors.
Statistically significant trends in the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically
persisting for decades or longer, are referred to as climate change (IPCC, 2001a). This chapter
aims to briefly summarize the information on climate change and its impacts on the world and on
Uganda in particular. Based on the available information, the knowledge gaps in this field in case
of Uganda are pointed out.
2.2 Global Climate Change
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the
atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. The Earths climate system has
demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era; however
th
the rate of global climate change during the 20 century was greater than before. For example,
th
average global temperature increased by approximately 0.60.2 C during the 20 century, which
was greater than in any other century in the last 1,000 years. The warming rate became even
more pronounced during the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the
increase in anthropogenic green house gas concentration in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001b).
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2.2.1 Global Temperature change

The observed global average surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over
land and sea surface temperature) records from 1861 to 2000 show that the earths temperature is
increasing (See fig. below) and most of the warming occurred during the second half of the twentieth
th
century, specially in two periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000. Over the 20 century the increase
has been 0.60.2 C (IPCC, 2001b). Different models all predict a general increase in the surface
temperature of the earth within the next decade as illustrated in the figure below
Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several
Source:
National centre for atmospheric research and the United States national assessment
of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, 2000
2.2.2 Global Precipitation change
Increasing temperatures tend to increase evaporation which leads to more precipitation (IPCC,
2007). As average global temperatures have risen, average global precipitation has also
increased. Many climate models show that the timing of precipitation will change. And thus,
most precipitation in the future will fall during a smaller number of storms that are heavier in
intensity. This is because the elevated temperatures will provide more energy in the atmosphere
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for storm production. Whereas the intensity of precipitation will increase, the traditional rainfall
patterns will be disrupted and as a result, longer rainless periods will be experienced.
2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security; a global perspective
The direct effect of climate change on agriculture will be through changes in factors such as
temperature, precipitation, length of growing season, and timing of extreme or critical threshold
events relative to crop development as well as through changes in atmospheric CO
concentration. Indirect effects will be detrimental changes in diseases, pests and weeds.
Generally, middle to high latitudes may experience increase in productivity where as in the
tropics and subtropics rain fed agriculture yields are likely to decrease (IPCC, 1997).
Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997)
Considering that agriculture in the tropics is vulnerable to frequent floods and severe droughts,
these two factors severely reduce agricultural production and could threaten food security of
many developing countries.
2.4 Projections of Future Climate Change
The future climate change largely depends on the existing and expected level of influencing
factors of climate change, e.g. the level of green house gas emissions. Economic and
technological development, policy intervention, industrial development, source of energy etc. are
the major driving factors for future green house gas emission. Based on these factors, different
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scenarios have been developed to project future climate change. The estimated range of
temperature changes in SRES scenarios from 1900 to 2100 is +1.4 to +5.8 C. The major
changes expected in the future are as follows (IPCC, 2001a):
Land areas warm faster than oceans and mid and high latitudes have a greater warming.
Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation will increase
Impact of climate change on crop water use and productivity
The intensity of rainfall events will increase.
Decrease in summer soil moisture in mid-continental areas due to the rise in temperature
and potential evapotranspiration.
There will be more frequent extreme high temperatures and less frequent extreme low
temperatures.
There will be enhanced inter-annual variability of northern summer monsoon

precipitation.
The Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent will decrease due to a warmer
climate.
2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios

General Circulation Models (GCMs), analogue warm periods and incremental scenarios are the
basis for creating climate change scenarios (Smith et al., 1997).
GCMs are mathematical representation of many atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes
based on the laws of physics. Such models consider a wide range of physical processes that
characterize the climate system and have been used to examine the impact of increased
greenhouse gas concentrations on global climate (Gates et al., 1990). Smith et al. (1997) stated
that GCMs estimate changes for dozens of meteorological variables in regional climate in grid
boxes that typically 3 or 4 degrees in latitude and as much as 10 degree in longitude.
GCMs provide the best information as compared to analogue and incremental scenarios (Smith
et al., 1997). However, one major disadvantage of GCMs is that they do not accurately represent
current climate at a regional scale. In many cases, seasonal patterns of precipitation are
misrepresented (Robock et al., 1993).
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According to Smith and Humle (1998) as cited in http://www.cics.uvic.ca,They have put forward
a number of criteria which should be considered when selecting a GCM. They are,
Model vintage: This is related to the age of the GCM experiment. It is generally assumed that
recent GCMs are more desirable than older ones since they often will model recent knowledge
about climate system behavior and response.
Model resolution: The finer spatial resolution GCMs represents more climate process dynamics
than coarser resolution models.
Model validity: It is assumed that if a GCM is better able to simulate the current climate of a
particular region, then it will also yield a more accurate representation of the future regional
climate.
Representativeness of results: GCMs can display large differences in estimates of regional
climate change. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate
change. In this way a realistic range of possible impacts can be estimated.
2.6 Physical Impacts of Climate Change
2.6.1 Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)
This is the evapotranspiration from a hypothetical grass reference surface, not short of water;
with specific characteristics of uniform height, actively growing and completely shading the
ground. The grass reference crop is assumed with a crop height of 0.12 m, a fixed surface
resistance of 70 s/m and albedo of 0.23 (Doorenbos et al., 1984; Allen et al., 1998).
Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998)
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2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM)

Crop water requirement is the depth of water needed to meet water loss through
evapotranspiration of a disease-free crop, growing in large fields under non-restriction soil
conditions including soil water and fertility and achieving full production potential under the
given growing environment. The values for crop evapotranspiration and crop water requirements
are identical for standard condition, crop water requirements refers to the amount of water that
needs to be supplied, while crop evapotranspiration refers to the amount of water that is lost
through evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998).
Direct measurement of Crop water requirements and reference crop evapotranspiration from
lysimeters is very difficult; it is time consuming and expensive. However, different estimation
methods are developed for ETo, which can be related to ET by multiplying it to K , the crop
c
coefficient. The crop coefficient mainly depends on the crop growth stages and type of crop
(Dinpashoh, 2006) see figure 2.6. The crop coefficient, Kc, is basically the ratio of the crop
water requirement (Etc) to the reference crop evapotranspiration ETo (Allen et al., 1998)
Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement
2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC)

Crop Coefficients (Kc) are crop specific evapotranspiration values generated by research used
with reference evapotranspiration data to estimate the crops evapotranspiration requirement
(ETc). ETc is calculated by multiplying the crop coefficient (Kc) by the reference
evapotranspiration value (ETo).
ETCROP = KCETO
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Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient
2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC)

Crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions is the evapotranspiration from crops
grown under management and environmental conditions that differ from the standard conditions.
When cultivating crops in fields, the real crop evapotranspiration may deviate from standard
conditions due to non-optimal conditions such as the presence of pests and diseases, soil salinity,
low soil fertility, water shortage or water logging. This may result in scanty plant growth, low
plant density and may reduce the evapotranspiration rate below ETm (Allen et al., 1998).
The ETc is calculated by using a water stress coefficient Ks and/or by adjusting Kc for all kinds
of other stresses and environmental constraints on crop evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998);
Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration
Water stress in the plant can be quantified by the rate of actual (adjusted) evapotranspiration
(ETc) in relation to the rate of crop (maximum) evapotranspiration (ETm) under standard
condition. When crop water requirements are fully met from available water supply then ETc =
ETm; when water supply is insufficient, ETc < ETm. To evaluate the effect of plant water stress
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on yield decrease through the quantification of relative evapotranspiration (ETc /ETm),

information on actual yield (Ya) in relation to maximum yield (Ym) is required. In addition, it is
necessary to derive the relationship between relative yield decrease and relative
evapotranspiration deficit given by the empirically-derived yield response factor Ky, to quantify
the effect of water stress on crop yield (Doorenbos et al., 1986). The yield response factor (Ky)
is a factor that describes the reduction in relative yield according to the reduction in ETc caused
by soil water shortage. These values are crop specific and may vary over the growing season
(Allen et al., 1998).
2.7 Methods used to estimate evapotranspiration
A large number of more or less empirical methods have been developed over the last 50 years by
numerous scientists and specialists worldwide to estimate evapotranspiration from different
climatic variables. The four following methods are selected based on the type of climatic data
available and on the accuracy required in determining the water needs. They are:
Blaney-Criddle,
Radiation,
Penman and
Pan Evaporation
1.1
2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand
There is a variety of programs dealing with computations of crop water requirements, mainly
based on a reference evapotranspiration. These programs are either single purpose, to estimate
crop water requirement (ETREF, CRIWAR, CRWTABLE) or embedded in scheduling programs
(CROPWAT, IRSIS). These programs also form the basis for various other irrigation scheduling
programs which are in use in various countries. FAOs CROPWAT has the advantage of a wide
dissemination, it is extensively tested and widely accepted and also requires less climatic data
compared to other programmes (Lenselink et al., 1993).
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2.8 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity

Crop water requirements and water productivity in rain fed and irrigated agriculture are essential
indicators for assessing effect of climate change on crop production. Weather variability and
uneven distribution of rainfall strongly influence the crop yield. The impact of climate variation
on crop yield has recently gained prominence due to the significant trend towards global
warming and climate change (Lenselink et al., 1993).
Rising global temperature may benefit some crops in some places around the world. At the same
time, increase in temperature generates enormous disadvantages to other crops through increased
evapotranspiration and thermal damage (Yeo, 1999). Rising temperature and decreasing
precipitation may widen the gap between demand and supply of crop water, which could have a
direct impact on the agricultural production.
Warmer temperature increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001c)
which generally results in an increased potential evapotranspiration, i.e. evaporative demands.
However, the actual rate of evaporation is constrained by water availability. The amount of water
stored in the soil influences directly the rate of actual evaporation, ground water recharge and the
generation of runoff (IPCC, 2001c). The local effects of climate change on soil moisture will
vary not only with the degree of climate change but also with soil characteristics. The lower the
water holding capacity of the soil, the greater is the sensitivity to climate change (IPCC, 2001c).
Increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and changes in associated climatic
parameters will likely have a major influence on regional as well as international crop production
(Abraha et al., 2006). The Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES-A1FI
scenario, with its large increase in global temperatures, showed signs of the greatest decreases in
cereal production both regionally and globally, especially by the 2080s (Parry et al., 2004).
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CHAPTER THREE
3.0 METHODOLOGY
3.1 Study Area
The study will carried out in the catchment area of River Sezibwa located in the districts of
Mukono and Kayunga in central Uganda.
The catchment covers a total geographical area of approximately 175 sq km. The river is gauged
at Sezibwa falls (035N, 32.87E). And the elevation ranges from 1122 m to 1353 m (Nyenje and
Okke, 2008).
The catchment is characterized with temperatures ranging from 15.20C to 29.30C and a total
rainfall amount of 1215mm distributed into two seasons.
River Sezibwa collects its waters mainly from areas around Mabira forest and discharges into
Lake Kyoga wetland.
Fig: 3 1: A map of the approximate study area boundary of river sezibwa catchment
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3.2 Acquisition and analysis of climatic and river flow data of Sezibwa basin
3.2.1 Data collection
Meteorological and hydrological data available at the Uganda Metrological Department
(Kampala) will be the major source of information in this study.
Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source
Data type
Climatic
Source
(Rainfall,
Sun Uganda Metrological Department (Kampala)
shine hours, Temperature,

Relative humidity and Wind
speed )
Maps
Catchment
Uganda Survey Department (Ministry of
area
Lands)
Land Use
National
Forestry
Authority,
Uganda
survey department(Ministry of lands)

Soil type
Uganda Survey Department (ministry of

lands)
Human, Crop and Livestock Uganda Bureau of Statistics, District Agricultural,

Veterinary officers and Ministry of Agriculture Animal
Husbandry and Fisheries And the districts of Mukono and
Kayunga
River flow data and water Directorate of Water Resources Management Entebbe
consumption rates.
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1.1.2 Data analysis

The climatic and river flow data obtained from several departments will be analyzed using
statistical methods such as the ranking method, moving average, regression and excel to establish
varying trends over the years
3.3 Identification and analysis of different soil types and land use within the catchment by
means soil sampling and maps
Soil and land use maps will be obtained from the department of survey and mapping, Ministry of
lands. The different soil types within the catchment will be identified and their properties
established using the FAO soil units.
3.3.1 Development of Maps
Catchment area map
Topographic maps will be obtained from Uganda Survey Entebbe, the catchment area map of
river Sezibwa will be marked out and the area will calculated using the following procedure:1. The area that drains in river Sezibwa will be marked out from the existing maps
following the heights of the contours marked on the map.
2. The total catchment area was calculated by adding up the squares and multiplying them
with the scale of the maps.
Land use map
The land use map for the catchment will be marked out from the existing land use map of the
entire region corresponding to the catchment area. The different types of land use will then be
estimated and their percentages determined.
Soil map
The soil map will be marked out from the existing soil map of the entire region corresponding to
the catchment area.
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3.3.2 Soil sampling and analysis

Representative soil samples from the identified soil units will be collected and laboratory
analyses carried out to identify, texture (using the hydrometer method), and soil fertility (to
establish percentage of organic matter and cation exchange capacity).
3.4 Determination of relative crop evapotranspiration rates in various climate variability
and climate change scenarios in the sezibwa River basin for the present and future
(2050) projection.
Existing climate change temperature and rainfall projections from literature will be used with the
help of CROPWAT software to determine relative crop evapotranspiration rates for the various
scenarios and projections.
Required CROPWAT data
Three main datasets will be used as inputs in the CROPWAT estimation: meteorology, crop and
soil. Details of these datasets are tabulated below.
Table3. 2: Required climatic parameters used as inputs to CROPWAT
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3.5 Quantifying the impacts of climate change on crop yields in different climate change
scenarios and carrying out a water balance analysis to compare the present and
future demand with the available water.
3.5.1 Yield reduction

A deficiency in the full water requirement (water stress) leads to lower crop yields. The effect of
this deficiency on the yield is estimated by relating the relative yield decrease to the relative
evapotranspiration deficit through the yield response factor (Ky). A linear crop-water production
function, developed by FAO (1979), will be used to predict the reduction of crop yield when
crop stress is caused by shortage of soil water.
Where,
Ya Actual yield,
Ym Maximum/potential yield and
K Yield response factor
y
3.5.1 Water balance analysis

The equation below will be used to carry out a water balance analysis to compare the present and
future demand with the available water for each year.
Water surplus (Ws) = Q IR Ln Dn In
Q = River discharge (m3/year).
IR = Irrigation water requirement (m3/year).
Ln = Livestock water requirement (m3/year).
Dn = Domestic water requirement (m3/year).
In = Industrial water requirement (m3/year).
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3.6 Quantifying other types (domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand within the
catchment for the present and future (2050) projection
3.6.1 Livestock Water Requirements
The livestock water demand will be calculated by following the procedure:1. The total number of livestock within the catchment will be obtained from the district
veterinary officers and the ministry of agriculture animal husbandry and fisheries.
2. The total daily water consumption rates for the livestock will be obtained from the
directorate of water development.
3. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the number of
livestock within the catchment and the water consumption rates
4. The future livestock water requirement for the next fifty years will then be obtained by
multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth rate ( as obtained
from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below
Ln = Li (1+r/100) n (DWD, 2000)
Where;
Ln is the future livestock water requirement in the nth year.
Li is the present livestock water requirement.
r is the annual animal growth rate
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3.6.2 Domestic Water Requirements

The domestic water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:a. The human population totals will be obtained from the Uganda national bureau of
statistics.
b. The total daily water consumption rates will be obtained from the directorate of
water development.
c. The present water consumption rates will be obtained by multiplying the total
population within the catchment and the water consumption rates
d. The future domestic water requirement for the next fifty years will then be
obtained by multiplying the present water demand with the annual animal growth
rate ( as obtained from the ministry of agriculture) using the equation below
Pn = Pi(1+r/100) n (DWD, 2000)
Where;
Pn is the future population in the nth year.
Pi is the present population.
r is the annual population growth rate.
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3.6.3 Industrial Water Requirements

The industrial water demand will be calculated by following the procedure stated below:1) The total number of industries within the catchment will be obtained from the district
planning officers.
2) The water consumption rate for the industries will be obtained from the directorate of
water development.
3) The present industrial water requirement will be obtained by multiplying the water
consumption rates and the total number of industries.
4) The future industrial water requirement for the next fifty years was obtained by
multiplying the present water demand with the industrial growth rate using the equation
below
In = Ii (1+r/100) n
(DWD, 2000)
Where;
In is the future industrial water requirement in the nth year.
Ii is the present industrial water requirement.
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PROPOSED PROJECT TIMELINE

ITEM ACTIVITY
1
PROPOSAL WRITING
2
PROPOSAL
PRESENTATION
DATA COLLECTION
LAB EXPERIMENTS
DATA ANALYSIS
FINAL
PRESENTATION
FINALREPORT
WRITING
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APRIL
PROPOSED PROJECT BUDGET
Page 21
MAY
Items
1
Proposal writing
i.
Printing
ii.
Binding
Quantity
Total cost (UGX)
15,000
Data collection (soil ,river flow, and

climatic data)
i.
Transport for field work ( soil

sampling, data collection
from districts)
ii.
Transport for data collection

( DWD, UBOS, Met Dept,
Survey Dept)
iii.
Communication (air time)
iv.
Purchase of maps
200,000
Soil analysis tests

i.
Texture ( soil science lab)
ii.
Fertility ( soil science lab)
GIS Maps
i.
Unit cost
30,000
150,000
150,000
10,000
30,000
Catchment, Soil and Land

use map
Final report
i.
Printing
ii.
Binding
Miscellaneous
Grand Total
30,000
455000
Page 22
REFERENCES
1. Abraha, M.G. and M.J. Savage (2006), Potential impacts of climate change on the grain
yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Journal of Agriculture,
Ecosystems and Environment, 115, 150-160.
2. Allen, R.G., L.S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith (1998), Crop evapotranspiration:
Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, Irrigation and Drainage paper 56
FAO of UN, Italy.
3. Carter, T.R., M.L. Parry, S. Nishioka, and H. Harasawa (2004), preliminary guidelines
for assessing impacts of climate change, Environmental change unit, Oxford and Centre
for global Environmental research, Tsukuba, pp. 28.
4. Dinpashoh, Y. (2006), Study of reference crop evapotranspiration in I.R. of Iran, Journal
of Agriculture water management, 84, pp. 123-129
5. Directorate of water development (DWD).Water supply design manual (2000). Ministry
of water, Lands and Environment.
6. Doorenbos, J., and A.H. Kassam (1986), Yield response to water, FAO irrigation and
Drainage paper 33, FAO of UN, Rome, Italy, pp. 193.
7. Doorenbos, J., and W.O. Pruitt (1984), Crop water requirements: Guidelines for
predicting crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24, FAO of UN,
Rome, Italy.
8. Gates, W.L., P.R. Rowntree, and Q.C. Zeng (1990), Validation of Climate models, in
Climate change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins,
and J.J. Ephramus, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 365.
9. IPCC (1996), Climate change 1995: economic and social dimensions of climate change,
Contribution of working group III of the Second Assessment Report of the
Page 23
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change edited by J.P. Bruce, H. Lee and E.F. Haites.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
10. IPCC (1997), The Regional Impacts of Climate Changes: An assessment of
Vulnerability, edited by R.T. Waston, M. C. Zinyowera, R. H. Moss and D. J. Dokken,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 3-4.
11. IPCC (2001a), Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis, Contribution of Working
Group I to the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change edited by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden,
X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
12. IPCC (2001b), Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups
I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change edited by R.T. Watson, and the Core Writing Team. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge.
13. IPCC (2001c), Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability,
contribution of WG II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on
Climate Change, edited by M.C. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken and
K.S. White, Cambridge University press, pp 547.
14. Lenselink, K.J., and M. Jurriens (1993), An Inventory of Irrigation software for
microcomputers, International Institute for Land Reclamation and Improvement (ILRI),
Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 172.
15. National adaptation plan for action Uganda - NAPA (2007)
16.
National centre for atmospheric research and the United States national assessment
of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, 2000
Page 24
17. Philip M. Nyenje and Okke Batelaan (2008) Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on
Groundwater (A case of Sezibwa catchment in Uganda.
18. Robock, A., R.P. Turco, M.A. Harwell, T.P. Ackerman, R. Andressen, H.S. Chang, and
M.V.K. Sivakumar (1993), Use of General Circulation Model output in the creation of
climate change scenarios for impact analysis, Journal of climate change, 23, 293-335.
19. Smith, J.B., and M. Humle (1998), Climate change scenarios (Chapter 3), in Handbook
on Methods of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, edited by J. Feenstra, I.
Burton, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol, UNEP/IES, Version 2.0, Amsterdam, cited in
http://www.cics.uvic.ca
20. Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) The 2002 Uganda Population and Housing
Census- Main Report March 2005, Kampala Uganda.
21. Uganda
Meteorological
Department
(UMD)
2008.
www.meteo-uganda.net
2nd
November/2010).
22. Yeo, Anthony (1999), predicting the interaction between the effects of salinity and
climate change on crop plants, Journal of Scientia Horticulturae 78, 159-174.
Page 25

Sample of A Project Proposal

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Final year project proposal

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Inter governmental panel on climate change

National adaptional plan for action

Uganda bureau of statistics

Uganda Meteorological Department

Special report on emission scenarios

Global climate models

Food and agriculture organization

Directorate of water development

Crop water requirement

Reference evapotranspiration rate

Crop evapotranspiration rate

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC) ................................................................................................ 10

Final year project proposal

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several ............................ 5

Table 3. 1: Type of data collected and the respective source ....................................................... 14

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

To determine relative crop evapotranspiration in various climate variability and climate

Quantify other types ( domestic, livestock, industrial) of water demand

catchment for the present and future (2050)projection

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

2.2.1 Global Temperature change

Fig:2. 1: Average 21 century global temperature increase projected by several

Final year project proposal

Fig:2. 2: Range of percentage change in crop yield (IPCC, 1997)

Final year project proposal

The intensity of rainfall events will increase.

There will be enhanced inter-annual variability of northern summer monsoon

2.5. Creating Climate Change Scenarios

Final year project proposal

Fig:2. 3 Reference evapotranspiration (source: Allen et al.,1998)

Final year project proposal

2.6.2 Crop water requirement (ETM)

Fig: 2. 4: Crop water requirement

2.6.3 Crop coefficient (KC)

Final year project proposal

Fig: 2. 5: The crop coefficient

2.6.4 Actual crop evapotranspiration (ETC)

Fig: 2. 6: Actual evapotranspiration

Final year project proposal

on yield decrease through the quantification of relative evapotranspiration (ETc /ETm),

2.8 Estimating Crop Water Use and Demand

Final year project proposal

2.8 Impacts on Crop Water Use and Productivity

Final year project proposal

Final year project proposal

Sun Uganda Metrological Department (Kampala)

shine hours, Temperature,

Uganda Survey Department (Ministry of

survey department(Ministry of lands)

Uganda Survey Department (ministry of

Human, Crop and Livestock Uganda Bureau of Statistics, District Agricultural,

Final year project proposal

1.1.2 Data analysis

Final year project proposal