Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
TURN ITSELF
AROUND?
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Industry Overview
Company Considerations
Trade Idea
Appendix
Executive Summary
Yahoo! is a technology company focused on making the worlds daily habits more
inspiring and entertaining
Yahoo! has suffered falling market share, stagnating revenue growth, and declining
user engagement for the past 3 years
Yahoo! has struggled in recent years due to under-indexing in the rapidly growing
mobile market, and facing worsening cost conditions
The core business has collapsed in value since 2012, with the companies share price
being supported by large stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo! Japan
If Yahoo! is to turn it self around, its M&A activity will likely form the basis for the
necessary revival in the core business
Tumblrs user base has grown 40% since acquisition with minutes of usage per user increasing.
Acquisitions such as BrightRoll and Flurry will allow Yahoo to capitalize on the mobile market.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
U.S. Forecasts
80
40%
60
30%
40
20%
20
10%
0%
($000 m)
Desktop
Adver5sing
U.S.
Online
Ad
Revenue
($bn)
%
Total
Media
Spending
%
Total
Ad
Spending
Mobile Adver5sing
6.64
1.2
1.04
Yahoo
TwiIer
0
Google
Revenue ($bn)
14.7
120
50
100
80
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
0
Mar-12
60
Display
SMS/MMS
Competitive Landscape
Google
Bing
Ask
Baidu
Google Sites
Microsoft Sites
IAC
AOL
Search
Engines
Online
Media
Companies
Advertising
Networks /
Platforms
Social
Media
Yahoo!
Google AdSense
AOLs Ad.com
Microsoft Media
Network
Facebook
Twitter
Google+
COMPANY
CONSIDERATIONS
Strategic Considerations
Yahoo! online properties are amongst the most popular in the world
Second most viewed behind Google
Tumblrs user base has grown 40% since being acquired by Yahoo!
Flickr hosts over 10 billion photos
Financial Considerations
Yahoo! has grown almost entirely inorganically since Marissa Mayer became CEO
in 2012
In 2013 Yahoo! was the most acquisitive company globally
Yahoo! is planning to continue investing into acquisitions in the near-term
Yahoo! owns a 16.3% share in Alibaba, and a 35% share in Yahoo! Japan
Alibaba share buybacks generated Yahoo! $4.3bn in 2012
Third Party
Content
Costs
5
3
2
1
0
2013
2014
2015
20
16.1
566
500
Other
1000
Search
11.4
590
12.6
15
10
5
0
2011
1
0
2011
Americas
2012
EMEA
2013
Asia
Pacic
2012
EBIT ($mn)
2013
Margin
(%)
650
600
Sales ($bn)
4.741
4
2
0
4.978
5.227
Growth
(%)
6.041
5.593
8
7
0
2014E
2015E
2016E
EBIT ($mn)
450
6
4
2017E
450
500
0
2016E
528
500
10
2
2015E
528
10.1
2017E
2018E
Margin (%)
1.3
2014E
10.6
550
15
621
13.1
2018E
400
472
13.1
15
10.6
10.1
10
411
9.6
422
9.1
404
403
5
350
0
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Prot
($mn)
Margin (%)
40
30
29.3
19.2
20
10
Sales
Growth
(%)
0
2011
Yahoo!
0
-5
2011
0
2012
2013
-6.1
15
10
5
-15
-25
-21.2
2012
2012
Microsoft
-10
-20
32.4
11.5
5.4
5.6
2011
2012
Sales
Growth
(%)
2012
140
120
100
80
60
40
17-Jan
18-Feb
17-Mar
Yahoo
17-Apr
16-May
Microso@
17-Jun
Google
17-Jul
18-Aug
17-Sep
17-Oct
TwiIer
AOL
17-Nov
17-Dec
Acquisition History
Announced Date
Deal Value
November 11 2014
BrightRoll
Unied
programma5c
video
adver5sing
pla_orm
$640mn
July 21 2014
Flurry
Mobile analy5cs
$200mn
January 21 2014
SPARQ
(Now
Sequent)
Mobile Marke5ng
January 17 2014
Aviate
Mobile App
May 17 2013
Tumblr
Blogging
$1.1bn
Tumblr has grown 40% since acquisition, minutes per unique user on the rise
215.6 million blogs, 98.9 billion posts
Summary
Sales Channels
5600
Geographic Mix
March 19 1992
No. Employees
1983
IPO Date
New York
Founded Date
2011A
Headquarters
Online
Product Overview
2012A
2013A
Revenue
($mn)
2202.10
2191.70
2319.90
Growth (%)
(10)
NM
Gross Profit
($mn)
617.70
604.50
613.70
EBITDA
($mn)
298.70
1378.80
364.30
Net Income
($mn)
13.10
1048.80
92.40
Could allow for ~$20bn in tax savings from divestitures in Yahoo! Japan
and Alibaba
Combined company could cut costs by reducing overlap
Capture considerable synergies
AOL holds strong assets and brands
AdTech and programmatic buying
Huffington Post, TechCrunch, Engadget, 5Min Media, Ad.com, Adap.TV
Alibaba and SoftBank are set to become global internet companies in the
long-term
Acquiring Yahoo! Would mean developing a close partnership with these firms
This could be attractive for a firm looking to push into China/Japan
Starboard Value
26th September, activist investor Starboard Value contacts Marissa
Mayer and the Yahoo! board claiming to have taken a significant stake
in Yahoo!
TRADE IDEA
Valuation Commentary
Based on forecasts, a five-year discounted cash flow model yields a per
share valuation of $64.02
Of this only $16 is attributable to the Yahoo! core business
EBIT
margin (%)
Tax @ 24.2%
Capital Expenditure
Capex/Sales (%)
Discount Factor
Terminal Value
Present Value
Enterprise Value (b)
Net Debt as at (Dec 2013)
Market Capitalisation ($b)
No. Shares (b)
Share Price ($)
16.3% Share in Alibaba
35% Share in Yahoo Japan
Total Business Equity Value
Implied Share Price
31-Dec-13
4.680
31-Dec-14
4.741
1%
31-Dec-15
4.978
5%
31-Dec-16
5.227
5%
31-Dec-17
5.593
7%
31-Dec-18
6.041
8%
0.590
13%
0.621
13%
0.528
11%
0.528
10%
0.537
10%
0.550
9%
0.629
0.619
0.538
0.792
0.958
1.071
Terminal Period
-0.143
0.338
-7%
-0.150
0.341
-7%
-0.128
0.358
-7%
-0.128
0.376
-7%
-0.130
0.403
-7%
-0.133
0.435
-7%
0.000
0%
-0.013
0%
-0.062
1%
-0.018
0%
-0.026
0%
-0.032
1%
0.738
0.735
0.518
0.798
0.936
1.021
1.021
0.902
0.813
0.734
0.662
0.597
0.597
22.195
0.663
16
-0.967005
17
1.071
16.0
44.45499
6.986
69
64.019
0.421
0.586
0.619
0.609
13.245
Microsoft
4.5x
12.0x
Google
5.6x
18.8x
Facebook
27.0x
55.8x
Twitter
34.3x
-43.5x
18.5x
25.7x
74.5x
-16.9x
AOL
1.4x
17.3x
Mean
14.6x
12.1x
Median
5.6x
17.3x
36.5x
27.7x
25.7x
LTM
EV/Sales
13.5x
LTM
EV/EBITDA
51.6x
LTM
P/E
145.1x
Sector Average
Sector Median
14.6x
5.6x
12.1x
17.3x
27.7x
25.7x
64.7
25.5
14.7
20.6
35.6
33.1
Yahoo
APPENDIX
Income Statement
Hist.
Hist.
Hist
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
31-Dec-18
31-Dec-11
31-Dec-12
31-Dec-13
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-15
31-Dec-16
31-Dec-17
Net Sales
4.984
4.987
4.680
4.741
4.978
5.227
5.593
6.041
COGS
1.590
1.621
1.349
1.365
1.533
1.610
1.723
1.860
SG&A
2.6
2.800
2.7
2.755
2.917
3.089
3.333
3.630
EBIT
0.800
0.566
0.590
0.621
0.528
0.528
0.537
0.550
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.555
0.475
0.730
0.897
1.011
0.064
0.063
0.062
0.061
0.060
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.240
1.066
1.320
1.495
1.621
0.0272
4.648
0.043
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Interest Income
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.025
0.027
0.026
0.027
0.030
Interest Expense
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.022
0.022
0.022
0.022
0.022
0.828
5.214
0.633
0.623
0.533
0.532
0.542
0.557
0.242
1.940
0.153
0.151
0.129
0.129
0.131
0.135
0.586
3.274
0.480
0.472
0.404
0.403
0.411
0.422
0.477
0.676
0.897
Net income
1.063
3.951
1.377
0.472
0.404
0.403
0.411
0.422
Shareholder information
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
1.282
1.203
1.071
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
$0.83
$3.28
$1.29
$0.44
$0.38
$0.38
$0.38
$0.39
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividends
Balance Sheet
Hist.
Hist.
Hist.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
31-Dec-11
31-Dec-12
31-Dec-13
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-15
31-Dec-16
31-Dec-17
31-Dec-18
2.668
1.516
1.008
0.460
2.078
1.330
1.0
0.638
5.0
2.823
1.330
0.991
0.646
5.790
2.580
1.330
1.040
0.725
5.676
2.620
1.330
1.092
0.762
5.805
2.818
1.330
1.169
0.815
6.132
3.114
1.330
1.262
0.880
6.587
1.839
0.816
1.686
3.8
0.2
0.3
2.8
1.590
0.000
1.5
4.7
0.4
0.2
3.4
1.590
0.000
1.275
4.680
0.354
0.180
3.426
17.294
1.590
0.000
1.958
4.680
0.292
0.189
3.426
17.810
1.590
0.000
2.404
4.680
0.230
0.199
3.426
18.332
1.590
0.000
2.710
4.680
0.169
0.213
3.426
18.919
1.590
0.000
2.934
4.680
0.109
0.230
3.426
19.554
0.0
0.185
0.808
0.297
0.0
0.138
0.908
0.294
0.000
0.137
0.910
0.299
1.347
0.000
0.144
0.956
0.314
1.414
0.000
0.152
1.004
0.329
1.485
0.000
0.162
1.074
0.352
1.588
0.000
0.175
1.160
0.381
1.716
0.000
0.800
0.408
1.111
0.965
0.259
1.111
0.977
0.259
3.693
1.111
1.026
0.259
3.809
1.111
1.077
0.259
3.931
1.111
1.152
0.259
4.111
1.111
1.244
0.259
4.330
10.136
5.792
(1.323)
9.008
4.267
(0.145)
13.1
16.8
9.008
4.738
(0.145)
13.601
17.294
9.008
5.138
(0.145)
14.001
17.810
9.008
5.538
(0.145)
14.401
18.332
9.008
5.945
(0.145)
14.808
18.919
9.008
6.361
(0.145)
15.225
19.554
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
LT Marketable securities
Alibaba shares
Net PP&E
Goodwill
Other intangibles
Other assets
Investments in equity interests
Total assets
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.7
17.10
1.3
2.5
Common stock
Retained earnings
Treasury stock
Total equity
Total Liab.& Equity
0.0
0.0
14.6
17.103253
Balance?
OK
OK
16.8
1.3
3.7
Cashflow Statement
Yahoo
Cash Flow Statement
Hist.
Hist.
Hist.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
31-Dec-11
31-Dec-12
31-Dec-13
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-15
31-Dec-16
31-Dec-17
31-Dec-18
Net Income
Depreciation
Amortisation
Change in OWC
Change in other assets
Change in other liabilities
Cash from Operating Activities
1.4
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
2.3
0.5
0.6
0.1
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.5
0.1
(0.1)
(0.0)
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.1
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.1
1.2
0.4
0.9
0.1
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.1
1.4
0.4
1.0
0.1
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.1
1.5
Capex
Acquisitions / Disposals
Cash from Investing Activities
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.4
0.8
-1.2
0.4
0.8
-1.2
0.4
0.8
-1.2
0.4
0.8
-1.2
-1.1
1.2
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
0.7
(0.2)
0.0
0.2
0.3
Beginning Cash
Ending Cash
(1.0)
2.1
2.1
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
3.1
Revenue forecasts
Sales
Americas
EMEA
Asia Pacific
Y1
4.98
3.30
0.63
1.05
Y2
4.99
3.46
0.47
1.05
Y3
4.68
3.48
0.39
0.81
Y4
4.74
3.56
0.38
0.81
Y5
4.98
3.73
0.37
0.87
Y6
5.23
3.95
0.34
0.94
Y7
5.59
4.22
0.34
1.03
Y8
6.04
4.50
0.36
1.18
% Contribution
Americas
EMEA
Asia Pacific
66.3
12.6
21.1
69.4
9.5
21.1
74.39
8.23
17.39
75.00
8.00
17.00
75.00
7.50
17.50
75.50
6.50
18.00
75.50
6.00
18.50
74.50
6.00
19.50
4.8
(25.0)
0.1
0.6
(18.4)
(22.7)
2.1
(1.5)
(0.9)
5.0
(1.6)
8.1
5.7
(9.0)
8.0
7.0
(1.2)
10.0
6.6
8.0
13.8
% Growth
Americas
EMEA
Asia Pacific
Gross Revenue
GAAP Display Revenue
GAAP Search Revenue
Other Revenue
2013
4.68
1.95
1.74
0.99
2014
4.74
1.78
1.80
0.83
2015
4.98
1.87
1.92
0.84
2016
5.23
1.91
2.02
1.30
2017
5.59
1.99
2.21
1.39
2018
6.04
2.09
2.45
1.50
% Contribution
GAAP Display Revenue
GAAP Search Revenue
Other Revenue
41.7
37.2
21.1
37.6
37.9
17.5
37.6
38.6
16.8
36.6
38.6
24.8
35.6
39.6
24.8
34.6
40.6
24.8
(8.5)
3.1
(16.0)
5.0
7.0
1.0
2.2
5.0
54.6
4.1
9.8
7.0
5.0
10.7
8.0
% Growth
GAAP Display Revenue
GAAP Search Revenue
Other Revenue
Financial Assumptions
Sales growth %
COGS as % of sales
Annual depr. as % of previous PPE
SG&A as % of sales
Amortization of other intangibles amount
Non-recurring items amount
Effective tax rate
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding (m)
Dividend per share growth rate
Marketable securities
Accounts receivable as % of sales
Prepaid expenses as % of sales
LT Marketable securities
Alibaba shares
Capital expenditures % of sales
Acquisitions / Disposals ($bn)
Other assets % of sales
Investments in equity interests
Accounts payable and accruals % of COGS
Accrued expenses as % sales
Deferred Revenues as % of sales
Other long-term liabilities % of sales
Hist.
31-Dec-11
Hist.
31-Dec-12
Hist.
31-Dec-13
Proj.
31-Dec-14
Proj.
31-Dec-15
Proj.
31-Dec-16
Proj.
31-Dec-17
Proj.
31-Dec-18
31.9%
0.0%
32.5%
52.0%
0.0
0.0
56.1%
0.04
4.6
-6.1%
28.8%
37.3%
58.6%
0.04
0.0
1.3%
28.8%
37.3%
58.1%
0.06
0.0
24.2%
5.0%
30.8%
37.3%
58.6%
0.06
0.0
24.2%
5.0%
30.8%
37.3%
59.1%
0.06
0.0
24.2%
7.0%
30.8%
37.3%
59.6%
0.06
0.0
24.2%
8.0%
30.8%
37.3%
60.1%
0.06
0.0
24.2%
1.203
1.071
1.1
0.0%
1.1
0.0%
1.1
0.0%
1.1
0.0%
1.1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
20.2%
28.4%
20.9%
47.3%
1.330
20.9%
47.3%
1.330
20.9%
47.3%
1.330
20.9%
47.3%
1.330
20.9%
47.3%
1.330
20.9%
47.3%
1.590
0.0
7.2%
0.8
3.8%
3.426
1.590
0.0
7.2%
0.8
3.8%
3.426
1.590
0.0
7.2%
0.8
3.8%
3.426
1.590
0.0
7.2%
0.8
3.8%
3.426
11.9%
10.1%
7.2%
0.0%
5.8%
2.8
3.8%
3.4
1.590
0.0
7.2%
3.8%
3.426
3.7%
17.1%
6.0%
16.0%
2.9%
18.2%
6.3%
20.6%
2.9%
19.2%
6.3%
20.6%
2.9%
19.2%
6.3%
20.6%
2.9%
19.2%
6.3%
20.6%
2.9%
19.2%
6.3%
20.6%
2.9%
19.2%
6.3%
20.6%
0.0%
0.0
10.1
1.3
9.0
(1.2)
9.0
0.0
9.0
0.0
9.0
0.0
9.0
0.0
9.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Sources:
Yahoo 2013 Annual Report, Investor Relations
eMarketer
Forbes
Google Finance
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