Cost of Software Obsolescence

Sanathanan Rajagopal
DES CAAS-CEF-HOP-CF-8@mod.uk
19/09/2013

What is Obsolescence ?

Transition from availability from the original manufacturer to

unavailability - IEC 62402:20071

Obsolescence Management is the coordinated activities to direct

and control an organisations with regard to obsolescence

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Obsolescence The Threat

Obsolescence is bigger issue than reliability- British Airways

Engineering

Obsolescence is now one of the biggest threats to the future of

many sectors of industry BAE System
Obsolescence is number 2 risk to the project Eurofighter Typhoon

Slides from Cranfield University

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Types of Obsolescence

Skills
Software
Mechanical Components
Electronic Components
Documentations
Tools
Process
Materials
People

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Software Obsolescence

The only big companies that succeed will be those that obsolete their
product before somebody else does and to be successful we must
obsolete our product.
- Bill Gates 2003

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% Functions perormed by software

Military Software Dependency

100
JSF
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960 1964 1970 1975 1982 1990 2000 2010
B-2

F4

Year

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Software v/s Hardware

Software defects are design defects

Software does not have energy related wear-out. Errors can occur
without warning
Software reliability is not a function of time
Environmental factors does not effect software reliability
Software reliability cannot be predicted from any physical basis, it
depends completely on human factors in design
Software interfaces are purely conceptual other than visual

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Software Reliability

Is the probability of failure-free software operation for a specific

time
Software is not a function of time
Software reliability is an important attribute to software quality
Software reliability is hard to achieve as software complexity is
high

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Software Maintainability
It is the ease with
The program can be corrected
Adapted if the environment changes
Enhanced if the customer wants to change
No Direct way to measure software maintainability

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Hardware Obsolescence

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Software Obsolescence

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What is Software Obsolescence ?

When a software is not supported

When software cannot be updated
When there is a change in the hardware

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Effect of Software Obsolescence

software1
System 1

Software 2
System 2
Software 3
System3

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Software Obsolescence
Software Obsolescence happens due to one of the three main
causes
Functional Obsolescence
Technological Obsolescence
Logistical Obsolescence

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Root Cause of Software Obsolescence by P Sandborn

Software
Obsolescence

Technological

Purchase

Functional

Support

Infrastructure

Distribution

License

Technical

System

Build

Network

Copyright

Updates

Peripherals

Test

Portable

Expansion

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Compatibility

Logistical

Integrate

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Software Obsolescence Mitigation and Cost

The following areas of cost/resource/time have to be considered
Mitigation
Software License downgrade
Source Code Purchase
Third Party Purchase
Re-development
Re-qualifying
Re-hosting
Media Management
Case Resolutions

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Cost of Software Obsolescence - The Problem

Unavailability of the data related to Software Obsolescence

Inadequate design documentation and configuration
Unavailability of historic cost data associated with Software
Obsolescence
Unavailability of Software Obsolescence Management strategy

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Likely Key Cost Drivers

Software Maintenance
Sustaining Engineering
Facilities and infrastructure
Software License
Certification and Accreditation
Management

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My Research - Aim

The aim of my research is to develop a Model to estimate the cost of

Software Obsolescence at very early stages of the project by
identifying the likely cost drivers. The study will include aspects of
complex software engineering issues such as systems of systems
integration, software maintenance along with risk and uncertainty
analysis

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Approach

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Proposed findings and Recommendations

Development of Model to estimates the cost of Software

Obsolescence
Identify the key source and Cost drivers of Software
Obsolescence
Producing new procedures and standards for estimating cost of
Software Obsolescence

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