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Source:BofAMerrillLynch
As has been well reported, rising wages in China have eroded the countrys
competitive edge and caused many multinational companies to relocate
manufacturing to Asean countries and even to developed Europe and the US. (This
Standard Chartered Bank survey reported by beyondbrics on Thursday is just one
example.)
Source:BofAMerrillLynch
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Chinashigherwageincreases,laborshortagesandRMB
appreciationhavemadeASEANamoreattractiveFDIproposition.
Chinasmanufacturingwagesarenowsome30%higherormore
thanThailand,IndonesiaandVietnam.
USFDIintoASEANhasbeenincreasingoverthepastyear,despite
uncertaintiesathome.USFDItoASEAN6roseto$19.9bninthe
first9monthsof2012,up+126%fromthesameperiodayearago.
StrongerpercentageincreasesinUSFDIwereseeninSingapore
(+177%),Thailand(+126%)andIndonesia(+53%).
Chua reckons all this will have a lasting impact. Here is his conclusion:
SignsarethatASEANFDIwillremainrobust.ForcesdrivingFDIin
ASEANarenotjustfunctionsofdomesticfactors,suchasgrowing
domesticmarketsandgreaterliberalization.ASEANseffortsto
formasinglemarketandproductionbaseby2015willbringlower
tradeandinvestmentbarriers,andeconomiesofscale
ButFDIintoASEANisalsoafunctionofdivergentChinaASEAN
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demographicsandSuperpower(US,China,Japan)geopolitical
relations.Thesefactorswilllikelyremaininthecomingyears,ifnot
decades.JapanChinatensionsandterritorialdisputeswillnotbe
easilyresolved.AmericahasmadeastrategicshifttoengageAsia,
particularlyASEAN,resultingingreaterUSinterestandinvestment
flows.FortheUS,engagingASEANwillhelpmanageandcounter
Chinasriseandinfluence.ASEANsFDIprospectsarelooking
bright.
Relatedreading:
China: factory wages to rise 9%, survey, beyondbrics
Philippines: winning Japanese investment at the expense of China, beyondbrics
Asean: outsourcing from near and far, beyonbrics
Guest post: China and Asean it cuts both ways, beyondbrics
China: rising wages will drive economic change under new leadership, FT
Labour shortages: Double-digit wage increases, FT
Tags:Asean,FDIPostedinAsia,Cambodia,China,Global,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,Myanmar,
Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam|Permalink
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