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Asean FDI future brighter than Chinas | beyondbrics

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Asean FDI future brighter than Chinas


Mar15,201312:07pm byJonathanWheatley

Foreign direct investment into the Asean countries has


risen strongly in the past few years and is now on a par
with FDI into China. As Hak Bin Chua, Asean economist
at Bank of America Merrill Lynch writes in a report on
Friday, this is in sharp contrast to a decade ago, when
there were widespread fears that Asean would be
marginalised by Chinas rise.
The change is partly a result of political issues such as recent territorial tensions
between Japan and China which are diverting some Japanese investment south.
But is is also driven by social and economic factors such as demographics that will
not change direction any time soon.

Source:BofAMerrillLynch

As has been well reported, rising wages in China have eroded the countrys
competitive edge and caused many multinational companies to relocate
manufacturing to Asean countries and even to developed Europe and the US. (This
Standard Chartered Bank survey reported by beyondbrics on Thursday is just one
example.)

Source:BofAMerrillLynch

Chua says demographics


explain the growing wage
gap between China and the

blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/03/15/fdi-aseans-future-brighter-than-chinas/#axzz2NiKk8V7k

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3/16/13

Asean FDI future brighter than Chinas | beyondbrics

Asean countries and will


continue to do so: Chinas
working age population
started shrinking last year
(some three years ahead of
schedule), while ASEANs
working age population
continues to expand at a
healthy pace.
Chinas working age
population shrank by 3.45m
or 0.6 per cent year-on-year
in 2012, he says, while those
of the Asean-7 (the six in
Chart 1 plus Mayanmar) will
peak only in 2042.
He writes:

Chinashigherwageincreases,laborshortagesandRMB
appreciationhavemadeASEANamoreattractiveFDIproposition.
Chinasmanufacturingwagesarenowsome30%higherormore
thanThailand,IndonesiaandVietnam.

Geopolitical tensions, it is to be hoped, will turn out to be less structural in nature


though Chua expects them to last for years if not decades. He says they have
already had a significant impact. As well as diverting Japanese investment from
China to the Asean countries, they have also, Chua argues, resulted in a reduction
of Chinese investment into the Philippines, which has a territorial dispute with
China in the South China Sea, and Myanmar, which has become less dependent on
China since its political liberalisation.
A third factor is a shift in US policy involving a pivot or rebalancing of its
interests towards Asia, especially southeast Asia. US President Barack Obama has
twice visited the Asean region in the past two years and in November a framework
was agreed on greater economic engagement between the US and the Asean
countries. Chua notes:

USFDIintoASEANhasbeenincreasingoverthepastyear,despite
uncertaintiesathome.USFDItoASEAN6roseto$19.9bninthe
first9monthsof2012,up+126%fromthesameperiodayearago.
StrongerpercentageincreasesinUSFDIwereseeninSingapore
(+177%),Thailand(+126%)andIndonesia(+53%).

Chua reckons all this will have a lasting impact. Here is his conclusion:

SignsarethatASEANFDIwillremainrobust.ForcesdrivingFDIin
ASEANarenotjustfunctionsofdomesticfactors,suchasgrowing
domesticmarketsandgreaterliberalization.ASEANseffortsto
formasinglemarketandproductionbaseby2015willbringlower
tradeandinvestmentbarriers,andeconomiesofscale
ButFDIintoASEANisalsoafunctionofdivergentChinaASEAN
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3/16/13

Asean FDI future brighter than Chinas | beyondbrics

demographicsandSuperpower(US,China,Japan)geopolitical
relations.Thesefactorswilllikelyremaininthecomingyears,ifnot
decades.JapanChinatensionsandterritorialdisputeswillnotbe
easilyresolved.AmericahasmadeastrategicshifttoengageAsia,
particularlyASEAN,resultingingreaterUSinterestandinvestment
flows.FortheUS,engagingASEANwillhelpmanageandcounter
Chinasriseandinfluence.ASEANsFDIprospectsarelooking
bright.

Relatedreading:
China: factory wages to rise 9%, survey, beyondbrics
Philippines: winning Japanese investment at the expense of China, beyondbrics
Asean: outsourcing from near and far, beyonbrics
Guest post: China and Asean it cuts both ways, beyondbrics
China: rising wages will drive economic change under new leadership, FT
Labour shortages: Double-digit wage increases, FT

Tags:Asean,FDIPostedinAsia,Cambodia,China,Global,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,Myanmar,
Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam|Permalink

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