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Our first goal is to characterize the nature of the countrys trade in specific
commodities. The United Nations Statistics Division reports that information in
two forms. One is in printed form in the International Trade Statistics Yearbook.
The library has those volumes for early years, if you want to trace the evolution of
different goods being traded over time, as we did for Malaysia and China in class.
The most recent years are available on line in pdf form at http://comtrade.un.org.
Select the Analytical Tables and then choose the Country Tables and select your
country. On each country page the first two tables show the countrys total
exports and imports to its individual trading partners. The next two tables show
the countrys exports and imports broken down y individual product categories.
For example, in the first set of tables you can calculate what share of Mexican
trade is with Guatemala or the United States, while in the second set of tables you
can see Mexican oil exports relative to its total exports.
To determine which goods are a countrys most important imports or exports can
be sort of tedious looking down the columns of the latter two tables. The UN
provides a data base that you can use to extract trade information and then
manipulate it in excel. At the web site above, just pick Database instead of
Analytical Tables. (See the handout on instructions for using this database if the
interface does not seem straightforward to you.) Once you have the data in excel,
you can sort on the column that gives the value of exports to find those that are
most important. The bigger advantage of this database is that you can look at
trade by commodity for individual countries. If I want to know how much
Chinese cloth is used to make clothes in Lesotho that are exported to the United
States, this is a good source for addressing that question.
In some cases we can characterize a product on the basis of the factor inputs it
uses intensively. For example, is the good labor intensive or natural resource
intensive? In other cases, that characterization is more difficult, because of the
outsourcing of some parts of the production process to other countries. The final
assembled product may involve inputs from several countries and not simply
depend upon the factor endowments or technical capability of the country where
the final stage of production occurs. In spite of those complications, you still may
find it useful to indicate something about the countrys pattern of trade based on
the factor intensity table (Table 4.2) posted in the documents section of our course
web page.
Table 4.2 is based on U.S. production statistics. The first column shows employee
compensation as a share of value added in that industry; the rest of value added
The second part of this assignment requires you to consider your countrys
balance of payments position and the potential for it to suffer a debt crisis. A basic
building block for us will be the IMFs compilation of its balance of payments in
International Financial Statistics. You can access this information from the
Grinnell College library web page. Because these data are not freely available but
by subscription only, dont go directly to the IMF web page. See the handout for
instructions on accessing these data, both country specific macro data and
commodity price trends that may be relevant to your country. We will also use
some supplemental information from the WDI source that you have previously
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negative, does that also result in a deficit on the current account as a whole, or are
there other entries that provide an important offset to that deficit? For most
countries, a CA/GDP deficit greater than 4% or 5% in absolute value is unlikely
to be sustainable in the long run. By that standard, did your country appear to
need to reduce its deficit during this period?
What allows the country to run a current account deficit? That is, how does the
country finance that extra spending does it sell assets to foreigners or borrow
from them? Is the current account a good predictor of the overall balance? If so,
there may be little variation in the financial account from year to year, possibly
because the World Bank lends a set amount of money and few other lenders are
attracted to that country.
How much does the Central Bank intervene in the foreign exchange market to
defend the value of its currency in the case of a deficit or keep its currency from
rising in the case of a surplus? When you look at the value of the currency over
time, has it changed much in value relative to the US dollar? Did your country
face a crisis when it had to borrow from the IMF? Did it rely on Exceptional
Financing to deal with a debt crisis?
Is your country heavily indebted? In establishing an initiative to deal with highlyindebted poor countries, the World Bank set a target that debt should not exceed
150% of export earnings. In terms of a related measure, how great a burden are
debt service payments, and how has that ratio changed over time?
What share of the debt of your country is short term? If your country faced a
period of financial crisis, how did that figure change? Were there large swings in
the amount of capital that flowed into the country and then out of the country?
Can you distinguish between foreigners taking their money out (as in the entries
for Other Investment Liabilities) or domestic residents moving money abroad (as
in Other Investment Assets)? As above, you might identify such a period by years
in which the country borrowed from the IMF.