Africa and Global Economic Trends Quarterly Review - First Quarter 2013

Africa & Global Economic Trends
Quarterly Statistical Review
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
Contents
1 | World Economy
1.1. |
1.2. |
Economic growth &

unemployment
Inflation and financial
developments
2 | Africa in the World Economy

2.1. |
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
|
|
|
|
Economic growth
Focus: Ghanaian economy
Merchandise trade
Commodity trends
Inflation & money supply
Financial indicators
3 | Data sources and descriptions
Mthuli Ncube
Chief Economist & Vice President
(ECON)
m.ncube@afdb.org
+216 7110 2062
Charles Leyeka Lufumpa
Director, Statistics Department (ESTA)
c.lufumpa@afdb.org
+216 7110 2175`
Victor Murinde
Director, African Development Institute
(EADI)
v.murinde@afdb.org
+216 7110 2075
Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa
Director, Development Research
Department, (EDRE)
s.kayizzi-mugerwa@afdb.org
+216 7110 2064
At a glance
fter a weak ending to the year 2012,
Continuing shocks emanating from the eurozone,
the global economy picked up during
including the aftermath of Cypruss recent sove-
the first months of 2013, driven by
reign debt crisis, have acted as a rein on the glo-
resilience in emerging economies. The outlook
bal recovery. World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012
for the first half of 2013 is for a return to slow but
was down sharply compared to the 5.2% recor-
steady growth in the United States and Canada,
ded in 2011. Despite this, transmission to African
and an improving outlook in Japan. In Europe a
economies has been tempered by more intensive
meaningful recovery is likely to take longer.
financial and trade linkages between the continent and other economically dynamic regions.
Generally,
the
performance
of
emerging
economies remains much more robust than that
The importance of countries such as China, Bra-
of advanced countries, although with significant
zil, and India as trading partners, export destina-
variations across regions. Business confidence
tions, and sources of investment in Africa is
has generally improved since the start of the
Global economy
: business confidence
(monthly
growing. Africas
merchandise
exports
todata)
develo-
5,0
3,7
70,000
year, supported by improvements in equity
ping
64,954economies in 2011 accounted for almost
markets in particular. In the eurozone however,
42%
54,862of total exports, compared to 28% in 2005.
2,5
59,908
1,2
49,816
confidence weakened in March and remains well
There
has been a marked shift toward Asia as an
44,770
below 50, which is the borderline between
39,724
export
destination, which accounted for 25% of
34,678
-1,2
-2,5
-3,7
29,632
expansion and contraction.
total export
flows09 in 2011,
compared
to just
16%
08
10
11
12
13
-5,0
in 2005.
Global economy : business confidence
(monthly data)
5,00
Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)
70,000
3,75
64,954
2,50
59,908
Africa : Merchandise exports by destination

(shere in %)
12
9
1,25
54,862
49,816
44,770
-1,25
39,724
0
-3
-2,50
34,678
-2
-6
-3,75
29,632
08
09
10
11
12
13
-9
-5,00
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
15
1 876,75
6
3
12
6,25
1 253,50
This brief was prepared by Louis Kouakou (Statistician, ESTA1),-3 Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Assistant, ESTA1) under
10
the supervision of Beejaye Kokil, (Manager, Economic & Social-6Statistics
Division, ESTA.1).
For access to development data on African countries, -9please visit the AfDB Data Portal Web Site at:
-12
http://intranet.afdb.org/statistics or the Statistics Least developed
economies
8
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Department Web Site: www.afdb.org/statistics
6
2009
10,00
12
6,25
2,50
-12
2008
10,00
914
14
-6
2 500,00
12
10
15
10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2,50
630,25
7,00
-1,25
-5,00
30,00
18,75
15
1,7500000000000000
1,6250000000000018
7,50
14
2 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
? World Economy
Economic Growth ...

?
1.1 - World economy : economic growth & unemployment
Gradual recovery in global economy

Economic developments over the past 12 months have been bumpy, punctuated by
slowing real activity in advanced economies, large swings in investor sentiment, amid
periods of relative calm and improving prospects.
Output
the second
of data)
2012
(monthly
confidencehalf
: business
economyin
Global
70,000slowdown in emerging markets and dewas constrained, buffeted by a noticeable
veloping economies. However, the pace 64,954
of the global economy picked up in the first
59,908
quarter of 2013 from the lows posted at 54,862
year-end 2012. Global activity is evolving at
a three-speed pace. Growth is regaining 49,816
strong momentum in emerging economies;
44,770
activity picking up substantially in the US,
39,724Canada and Japan; but the eurozone is
70,000
34,678
experiencing stagnation, reflecting a lack 64,954
of investor confidence and weak consumer
29,632
demand triggered by stringent austerity59,908
measures
undertaken
in 11many 12countries.
13
10
09
08
54,862
Taking these factors into account, global49,816
output is forecast to increase by 3.3% in
44,770
2013, driven mainly by 5.3% GDP growth
in emerging and developing economies.
Graph 1. Advanced economies / GDP growth (Quarterly

data, % change on previous quarter)
5,00
2,50
1,25
0
5,00
-1,25
10
3,75
-2,50
-2
2,50
-3,75
1,25
-5,00
20
-1,25
70,000
-2,50
15 64,954
-3,7559,908
12
54,862
-5,00
9
49,816
6
44,770
3
39,724
0
15 34,678
-3 29,632
12
-6
9
-9
6
-12
3
34,678
-6
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
39,724
29,632
In the US, economic figures for the first quarter
of 2013 were stronger than expec13
12
11
10
09
08
ted. Unemployment is falling gradually, consumer
spending
is increasing
and sales
of new and previously owned homes are performing well. Nonetheless, the federal
governments fiscal difficulties could weigh on growth later in the year, as an increase
in payroll tax and cuts in federal spending start to take hold. Political gridlock in the
US may be easing, which could open the way for more targeted measures to be introduced to support the recovery. The Federal Reserve has signaled that its most recent program of quantitative easing will not be withdrawn, but as the economy picks
up, transitioning to a less accommodative policy stance could prove challenging.
The IMF is forecasting real GDP growth of just below 2% for the US in 2013.
10
3,75
-2
2 500,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-6
1 876,7520
Graph 2. Emerging economies / GDP growth (Quarterly

data, % change on same quarter of previous year
1 253,50
2 500,00
13
12
11
10
09
08
630,25
1 876,75
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
1 253,50
-3
-6
Lagging recovery in the eurozone
14
10,00
12
6,25
630,25
-9
30,00
-12
In the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP in the eurozone contracted by 0.6% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The
decrease in exports exerted a drag on
10
14
GDP growth, while domestic demand remained
depressed. During the first quarter
of 2013, both business and consumer 8confidence in the eurozone remained sub12
dued in the face of disappointing economic
figures. Although the German economy
showed positive growth in the first quarter,
the downturn in the rest of the eurozone
6
2013
2012four economies
2011the big
2010 one of
appears to be intensifying. According to10the 2009
IMF, only
Germany can expect to see positive growth in 2013, at just 0.6%. This is wea8
ker even than the forecast for the UK. France
is expected to follow last years zero
growth with a contraction of 0.1%, while Italy and Spain will see growth slump by
1,7500000000000000
6
around 1.5% in 2013. For the advanced
countries
of2010Europe
as a whole,
the
WEOs
2013
2012
2011
2009
1,6250000000000018
projected real GDP growth figure for 2013 has been revised downward to -0.3%.
1,5000000000000037
1,3750000000000055
1,1250000000000092
Fiscal stimulus measures in Japan
18,75
2,50
10,00
7,50
30,00
-1,25
6,25
-3,75
18,75
Graph 3. Harmonized unemployment rate (% of active

2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
population)
-5,00
2,50
1,0000000000000111
0,8750000000000129
15,000
0,7500000000000147
2013
2012
2011
In Japan, a new government has prioritized a sizable2009fiscal 2010
stimulus
package
and
a
9,375
more accommodative monetary policy as
a way to spur economic growth and trade.
Investors have watched the yen weaken by around 20% against the dollar since
mid-2012. This has led to warnings by3,750
the US Treasury that Japan should refrain
15,000
from competitive devaluation of its currency. Such an approach renders Japanese
-1,875
goods (e.g. automobiles) more attractive
in the global marketplace compared to
9,375
goods from competitor nations such as South Korea. The WEO (April 2013) projects
-7,500
growth of around 1.5% for Japan in 2013.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3,750
-1,25
12
150
-5,00
6,25
140
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
130
10
-15,00
110
8
100
150
90
140
80
6
130
70
120
60
110
15
10
-1,25
2009
2010
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
5
20
0
-5,00
15
-5
10
2013
2013
100
90
80
1,7500000000000000
70
1,6250000000000018
15,00
60
1,5000000000000037
2009
40
-5
2010
2011
2012
2013
30
1,3750000000000055
6,25
1,2500000000000074
20
40
1,1250000000000092
-2,50
1,0000000000000111
15,00
10
30
0,8750000000000129
-11,25
6,25
0,7500000000000147
-20,00
-2,50
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
20
10
15,000
2008
20
2,50
-20,00
-7,500
7,50
-3,75
-11,25
-1,875
-15,00
10,00
14
120
In addition to declining manufacturing1,2500000000000074

output, average unemployment in the eurozone has hit 12%. Figures from the Eurostat
show that the overall unemployment rate
1,7500000000000000
1,1250000000000092
1,6250000000000018
in the 17-member currency union has1,0000000000000111
risen steeply since February 2012, when the
1,5000000000000037
rate was 10.9%. Across the wider, 27-country
EU the total number of jobless is a re0,8750000000000129
1,3750000000000055
0,7500000000000147
cord 26.3 million. In Greece, the youth
unemployment rate is nearing 60% while in
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
1,2500000000000074
Spain it is 56%.
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
9,375
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
49,816
44,770
70,000-1,25
3,75
39,724
64,954
-2,50
59,908
-3,75
54,862
2,50
-2
49,816-5,00
-6
34,678
29,632
08
1,25
Statistics13 Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 3
12
11
10
09
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
44,770
-1,25
39,724
-2,50
34,678
-3,75
29,632
15
13
12
11
10
09
08
12
2
-5,00
9
1
6
3
? World Economy
15
Inflation and financial developments ...?
12
-3
1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments-6
-9
The slowdown in emerging economies during 2012 reflected slackening manufac(monthly data)with
business confidence
economy : economies,
turing output due to decreasing orders fromGlobal
advanced
combined
70,000
domestic monetary policy tightening.
The
first
quarter
of
2013
saw
a slowing of
64,954
Chinas growth to 7.7%, missing forecasts
for 8% year-on-year growth, with mining
59,908
54,862 consumer
14
stocks significantly hit. Nonetheless, with
demand resilient and exports re49,816
viving, most regions of Asia, Latin America,
and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to
44,770
12
maintain strong growth in 2013.
39,724
5,00
Inflation generally subdued
10
08
09
4. Inflation / Consumer prices (monthly data, %

change on same month of previous year)
1510
-5,00
12
9
1,7500000000000000
1,6250000000000018
9,375
The US dollar continued appreciating6 against

major currencies in March 2013, gai3,750
2013
2012
2011
2010
ning 3.0% on the euro and 1.7% against2009
the Japanese
yen. The appreciation of the
US dollar against the yen continued after the
BoJs monetary stimulus announce-1,875
ment, which led to a monthly average parity of 94.752 per US dollar in March. Whether the dollar continues to strengthen against
other currencies will depend on a
-7,500
1,7500000000000000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
number of other indicators, including the jobless numbers,
in the months
ahead.
Re1,6250000000000018
cession in the eurozone has weakened the single currency, leading in March 2013
1,5000000000000037
to an average exchange rate of 11,3750000000000055
= US$1.2963. The recession in Europe has lessened the pressures that drive inflation
such as the demand for energy, while high
1,2500000000000074
unemployment has kept a lid on wage
rises.
1,1250000000000092
2,50
-1,25
150
2009
-3
140
-6
130
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
110
-12
100
1,7500000000000000
2008
1 253,50
630,25
150
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
140
90
1,6250000000000018
130
80
1,5000000000000037
70
1,3750000000000055
60
10,00 1,2500000000000074
2009
120
110
2013
2012
2011
2010
30,00
1,1250000000000092
18,75
0,8750000000000129
2,50
-5,00
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
6,25
15,000
9,375
70
7,50
-3,75
15,0
-2,50
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
90
60
0,7500000000000147
15,00
-1,25
100
80
6,25 1,0000000000000111
6,2
-11,25
Graph 6. Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100)
-2,5
-20,00
3,750
150
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
140
15
130
-1,875
120
110
-7,500
100
20
-11,2
-20,0
10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
90
-5
60
The first quarter of 2013 saw investors return in large numbers to equity markets, as
a reaction to low interest rates and a shift away from bonds. Equity markets continue to hit new highs, but the rally remains narrow and is mostly driven by the US and
Japan. The S&P 500 is now just a few
points off its all-time high. The remarkable re15,000
silience shown by the US economy to weather the fiscal cliff headwinds is boosting
investors confidence in US equities,9,375
which are outperforming their global counterparts.
1 876,75
5. Exchange rates (US$ per national currency)

Graph 120
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
500,00
2-15,00
-9
0,7500000000000147
2009
-3,75
70
0,8750000000000129
7,50
-6
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
18,75
6,25
80
1,0000000000000111
Buoyant financial markets
2012
2011
2010
2009
6
3
30,00
10,00
12
-1,25
In most advanced economies, low underlying inflation rates allow headroom for monetary policy action to accelerate recovery.6 In the US, inflation eased in March to
2013
2012
2011
2010 to lower
2009
1.5%, down from 2.0% in February; this was largely
due
gasoline
prices.
Core inflation also edged down to 1.9% in March, from 2.0% in the previous month.
In the eurozone, inflation fell marginally to 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013, compared to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.
-9
-12
-2
-3,75
14
2,50
-5,00
-6
-1,25
6,25
-2,50
2008
China posted a 2.1% inflation rate in March, down from a 10-month high 3.2% in February. Februarys spike was caused by 1,5000000000000037
increased food spending due to the Lunar
1,3750000000000055
New Year holiday. Chinas leadership has targeted annual economic growth at 7.5%
1,2500000000000074
and inflation at 3.5%. The Bank of Japan1,1250000000000092
has adopted an aggressive monetary stimulus approach, by committing to inject1,0000000000000111
about US$ 1.4 trillion into the economy in
less than two years. By so doing, it aims0,8750000000000129
to end nearly two decades of stagnation
14
and raise inflation to 2%. One measure
it0,7500000000000147
has taken is to abandon interest rates as
2013
2012
2010
2009
a target and become the only major central bank to focus
primarily
on2011the monetary
12
base the amount of cash in circulation.
To achieve its target, the BoJ will purchase
more government bonds and other types of assets. Moreover, the average maturity
10
on purchased securities will rise to seven
years from the previous three years. The
15,000
announcement of this measure led to a 3% depreciation of the yen against the US
8
dollar while yields on the 10-year government
bond plummeted to a record low.
10
-3
2,50
Graph
13
12
11
10
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3,75
34,678
29,632
-12
1,25
10,00
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
15,00
3
6,25
2
-2,50
3,750
1
-11,25
-1,875
-20,00
2009
-7,500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
2013
World Economy
? World Economy
Financial Indicators ...

?
1.3 - WORLD ECONOMY: Summary of world statistics
Table 1 : Real GDP Growth

Country
(seasonally adjusted data)
2011
2012
2013
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
% change on previous year
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
% change on previous quarter
1.8
2.2
1.9
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.1
-0.6
2.0
1.6
2.5
0.1
1.5
-0.2
-0.9
0.0
Eurozone
1.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.6
France
1.7
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
Germany
3.0
0.7
0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.6
0.4
-2.4
-1.5
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
-0.2
-0.9
United States
Japan
Italy
% change on same quarter of previous year
China
9.4
7.8
8.0
9.7
9.1
8.1
7.6
7.4
7.9
India
7.7
4.0
5.7
7.2
5.6
4.7
4.0
3.4
3.9
Brazil
2.7
0.9
3.0
2.2
1.4
0.7
0.4
0.9
1.4
Russia
4.3
3.4
3.4
4.6
5.2
4.3
4.3
3.3
2.4
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
2013 Q.1
(consumer prices, %)
Table 2 : Inflation
Country
2011
2012
3.2
2.1
3.8
3.3
2.8
1.9
1.7
1.9
Japan
-0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.4
-0.2
China
5.4
2.6
6.3
4.6
3.8
2.9
1.9
2.1
India
8.9
9.3
9.2
8.4
7.2
10.1
9.8
10.1
United States
1.7
-0.6
2.4
11.7
2.7
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
1.8
France
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.7
1.1
Germany
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.5
Italy
2.9
3.3
2.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.6
1.9
2012
2011 Q.3
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
2013 Q.1
Eurozone
(HCP)
Table 3 : Financial indicators

Country
2011
(end of period quotes)
Stock markets
USA (S&P 500)
1257.6
1426.19
1131.42
1257.6
1408.47
1362.16
1440.67
1426.19
1569.19
Japan (Nikkei 225)
8455.4
10395.18
8700.29
8455.35
10083.56
9006.78
8870.16
10395.18
12397.91
U.K (FTSE 100)
5572.3
5897.8
5128.48
5572.28
5768.45
5571.15
5742.07
5897.81
6411.74
Europe (Eurotop)
2100.86
2324.9
1917.77
2100.86
2209.3
2114.33
2241.99
2324.9
2431.37
Hong Kong (HSI)
18434.4
22656.92
17592.41
18434.39
20555.59
19441.46
20840.38
22656.92
22299.63
56754
60952
52324
56754
64511
54355
59176
60952
56352
0.742
0.763
0.780
0.799
0.771
0.758
Brazil (BVSP)
Exchange rates
(national units per US-Dollar, period average)
Euro
0.719
0.778
0.706
Yen
79.8
79.8
78.2
77.3
79.3
80.1
78.6
81.3
92.3
Yuan
6.46
6.31
6.42
6.34
6.31
6.31
6.33
6.30
6.28
Interest rates
(% per annum, period average)
United States
2.786
1.803
2.427
2.047
2.037
1.823
1.643
1.707
1.950
Japan
1.102
0.836
1.024
1.024
0.962
0.850
0.779
0.751
0.650
Eurozone
4.312
3.053
4.282
4.200
3.653
3.443
2.897
2.220
2.765
Chief Economist Complex, ECON
0
8
-1,25
49,816
44,770
39,724
-2,50
6
-3,75
34,678
5 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 29,632

- Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
09
08
10
2
-1,25
11
12
13
-2
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-5,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2 500,00
14
12
1,6250000000000018
13
9
1,5000000000000037
2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth
20
15
1,7500000000000000
15
? Africa in the World Economy
-6
12
1 876,75
11
6
1,3750000000000055
3
1,2500000000000074
0
1,1250000000000092
-3
1,0000000000000111
-6
Economic Growth ...?
10
1 253,50
9
630,257
0,8750000000000129
-9
Strong growth overall, despite mixed country performances
0,7500000000000147
-12
2009
2009
2008
Economic growth in Africa remained robust at 4.6% in 2012, despite the slowdown
in the global recovery. Africas resilience is linked to continued momentum in emer14
ging economies, the continents attractiveness
as an FDI destination, robust domestic demand, ongoing investment in infrastructure, and activation of new capacity
12
in the extractive sectors. This overall positive
performance is though far from uniform across the continent, as domestic factors including monetary policy tightening (Kenya and Uganda), protracted 10labor disputes (South Africa), and political
unrest (Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, and Guinea Bissau) have impeded growth in a num8
ber of African countries.
20102010
2011
7,00
20122013
2011 2012
Graph 7. GDP growth for selected countries (quarterly

data, % annual change )
10,00
15,
15,000
30,00
9,375
18,75
3,750
7,50
-1,25 -1,875
-3,75
6,25
2,50
6,
-2,
-11,
-20,
The continents strong performance during 2012

was
high commodity
2013
2012
2011due to
2010largely
2009
prices and an increase in private capital flows, particularly to the natural resources
sector, in the form of FDI. Exports grew strongly in the first half of the year; however
a sharp deceleration of industrial commodities and oil exports occurred in the second
half of 2012. Tourism, an important driver
of growth for many countries, remained ro1,7500000000000000
1,6250000000000018
bust with a high level of arrivals in many
of the traditional destinations, including
1,5000000000000037
South Africa, Kenya, and Madagascar.
However, the North African countries of Tu1,3750000000000055
nisia and Egypt, whose economies also
rely heavily on the sector, are struggling to
1,2500000000000074
win back holidaymakers particularly tourists
from the austerity-hit eurozone some
1,1250000000000092
two years after the sociopolitical unrest
of the Arab Spring erupted.
-5,00 -7,500
2008 2010
2009
2009 2011
2010 2012
-15,00
2011 2013
2012
150
20
140
15
130
120
10
110
100
90
80
1,0000000000000111
70
0,8750000000000129
South Africa's GDP growing at a lackluster pace
-5
60
0,7500000000000147
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2013
In South Africa, negative domestic factors reined in economic growth at a lackluster

2.5% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011. Despite forecasts of a contraction in the
fourth quarter of 2012, real economic growth seasonally adjusted picked up by
15,000
0.5%, after a revision of the third quarter figures to roughly 0.3%, after industrial action in the mining sector had taken its toll.
Mining sector real value added contrac9,375
ted further in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a number of gold and platinum mines
lost output due to strike activity. By contrast,
agricultural output rose as livestock
3,750
production held up fairly well over the period.
2010
2011
2013
2012
Graph 8. Manufacturing production

(monthly data, % annual change)
40
15,00
30
6,25
20
-2,50
10
-11,25
-1,875
The manufacturing sector in South Africa saw real output increase in the final quarter of 2012, supported by continued demand
from emerging economies and im-7,500
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
proved competitiveness due to depreciation of
the rand.
However,
indicators
are
more muted for the first quarter of 2013 with a dip in consumer confidence and manufacturing output slowing. South Africas economy is forecast to grow at a muted
2.75% in 2013, owing to the slowdown in mining production and the weakness of
demand in the eurozone, which is its main export market.
-20,00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pressures on fiscal and external stability in Tunisia and Egypt

Tunisia shares many of the same problems as Egypt: a high level of unemployment
particularly among the youth; food and oil5,00subsidies that represent a drain on goGlobal economy : business confidence (monthly data)
vernment finances; and sociopolitical fragility
in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.
3,75
Major international ratings agencies have2,50downgraded Tunisia and Egypts sovereign credit ratings with a negative outlook,
1,25citing acute political, economic, and security strains. Tunisias trade is particularly0 vulnerable to the eurozone crisis, as
recession-hit France and Italy represent its-1,25largest export markets. Egypts negotiations to secure an IMF loan of US$ 4.8 billion
have stalled.
-2,50
Graph 9. North Africa - GDP growth

(quarterly data, % annual change )
10
9000
6187
3375
-2
562
-3,75
08
13
11
10 the IMF
09
However,
has12 reached
a framework
-5,00 agreement with Tunisia on a two-year,
2012
2010
2009
2008 final approval
US$1.75 billion standby loan deal, which is awaiting
from the2011
IMF board
of directors. The aim of the loan is to support the implementation of the governments reform program to promote private
investment, foster sustainable job-crea15
tion, reduce economic and social regional12disparities, and strengthen social policies
9
to protect the most vulnerable.
6
-2250
-6
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2 500,00
1 876,75
1 253,50
630,25
3
0
-3
-6
5,00
10
9000,0
6187,5
3,75
2,50
1,25
0
-1,25
5,00
00
-2,50
3,75
54
-3,75
2,50
-5,00
1,25
62
16
70
24
78
32
08
2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth
Africa
in
the
Economy
13
12 World
11
10
09
08
08
2010
2009
2009
0000037
0000055
0000074
0000092
0000000000
0000111
0000000018
0000129
0000000037
0000147
0000000055
0000000074
0000000092
0000000111
2013
Table 4 : Real GDP growth
(%)
Botswana
Egypt
2009
2010
Ghana
2012
2011
2011
10
18,75
-15,00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2010
2012
2011
2011 Q.3
2012
20
-15,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
10
5
0 20
-5 15
5
0
4000
07
3000
10
09
08
2000
2012 Q.1
3.7
3.3
7.6
5.4
1.8
4.4
0.3
0.4
5.2
15.9
10.3
2009
15.0
-2,50
-11,25
2010
7.9
2011
2012
14.1
2013
4.4
4.7
3.8
4.9
3.2
3.5
3.3
4.0
2.2
3.0
4.9
5.3 2009
2.4
2010
5.4
5.0
2011
5.32012
2012 Q.2
4000
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
4.9
2.8
2013
10.4
5.5
3000
0
2000
1000
0
3.1
3.3
2008
3.2
4.3
2009
3.2
2010
4.92011
9.1
7.0
6.0
3.5
4.6
2.9
3.7
2.3
2008
11.5
2.9
2009
0.7
2010
2.0
4.3
7.8
6.5
7.4
7.7
6.2
6.3
6.5
7.0
Rwanda
8.3
8.0
11.9
8.4
7.0
9.4
6.9
8.7
Senegal
2.1
3.8
6.1
-1.7
2.0
3.1
3.7
5.2
2.3
3.5
2.5
3.2
3.0
2.4
2.8
2.6
Tanzania
6.4
6.9
5.9
6.5
7.1
6.9
6.5
Tunisia
-2.0
3.6
-1.5
-1.4
4.6
2.1
3.5
4.0
Uganda
4.8
6.6
5.8
-0.1
2.7
5.3
8.2
10.1
12
11
% change on 1000
same quarter of previous year
Nigeria
South Africa
12
11
10
09
08
07
10
2011 Q.4
18
10
-3,75
2013
22
14
7,50
6.1
-20,00
2008
30,00
6,25
-20,00
Morocco
Namibia
14
-3,75
-11,25
18
11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly

Graph
7,50
data, % annual change )
15
% change
on previous year
15,00
Kenya
Mauritius
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
6,25
-2,50
7,00
-5
2009
Country
2008
22
18,75
60
0000000147
2012
15
630,25
30,00
2013
45
30
1 253,50
15,00 70
2011
60
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Africas oil-exporting countries should continue to perform well, although expectaAfricas oil-exporting countries should110continue to perform well,
tions
need to be
tempered onneed
account
economic
although
expectations
to of
beweakening
temperedglobal
on account
ofgrowth, which
100
is depressing
prices.economic
Oil output growth,
estimates
for
the
quarter
2013
weakeningoilglobal
isfirst
depressing
oil indicate that
90 which
150
output estimates
for the
first
quarter (Algeria,
2013 indicate
80 members
totalprices.
crude Oil
oil production
in the four
OPEC
Angola, Libya, and
140
that total crude oil production in the
70
Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing. Recent falls in130thefour
priceOPEC
of oil members
have seen Brent crude
(Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria)
is roughly stabilizing.
60
120
dropping
below
100
per barrel
theseen
first
time
since
2012 and
Texas
2013
2012 West
2011
2010 July
2009
Recent
falls US$
in the
price
of oil for
have
Brent
crude
dropping
110
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Intermediate
down
US$88.3
perthe
barrel.
represents
fall of 9%
below
US$
100 to
per
barrel
for
firstThis
time
since Julya 2012
and in the first half
100
West2013
Texas
Intermediate
down tobelieve
US$88.3
barrel.
of April
alone.
Some forecasters
that per
OPEC
may This
cut production to
90
represents a fall of 9% in the first half of April 2013 alone.
80
shore
up
oil
prices,
although
growth
in
oil
demand
is
likely
to
continue
from China.
Some forecasters believe that OPEC may cut production to
2010
15
1 876,75
7,00
2012
2011
120
2009
30
1 253,50
2 500,00
630,25
-5,00 is discussed in the Focus

Ghanas economy during 2011-2012
2013
2012
2011
130 2009
2012
2011
2010
section below.
0000000129
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Nigeria, Africas main oil producer, saw its GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourth
Nigeria, Africas main oil producer,10,00
saw its GDP growth increase
quarter
of 2012, up half a percent from 6.5%
in the third quarter. Severe floods in the
to 7.0% in the fourth quarter of-1,25
2012, up half a percent from
country
mid-2012
to the deaths
363 people
displaced
2.1 million, with
6.5%inin
the thirdled
quarter.
Severeoffloods
in the and
country
in mid6,25
major
impacts
to affected
populations,
but also 2.1
to infrastructure
and the
2012
led tonot
theonly
deaths
of 363 people
and displaced
million,
-5,00
with
impacts
not onlythe
to implementation
affected
populations,
but
also2012
toreform
2013
2011major
2010
economy
as a2012
whole.
However,
of power
2013and re2011 sector
2010
2009
infrastructure and the economy 2,50
as a whole. However, the
bound
after the floods are expected to boost
growth in 2013. Ghana is now the seimplementation of power sector reform and rebound after the
cond
biggest
oil-producer
in
the
continent
Nigeria,
floods are expected to boost growth inafter
2013.
Ghanasupplanting
is now the Angola in the
-1,25
secondThe
biggest
oil-producer
in the
continent
after
Nigeria,is discussed in
rankings.
dramatic
rise of Ghanas
economy
during
2011-2012
150
The dramatic rise of
the supplanting
Focus sectionAngola
below. in the rankings.
140
2010
-2250,0
45
1-6876,75
trend, reaching 5.2% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.7% in

the previous quarter.
2,50
0000018
562,5
60
2-2500,00
growth
in oil inexporters
Steady
In Namibia,
GDP growth
the fourth quarter
of 2012 accelerated by 4.3% compa0
Namibia,
GDP growth
therebound
fourth
quarter
of about
2012by Agriculture,
red In
to 0.7%
in the previous
quarter.inThis
was
brought
-3
accelerated
by 4.3%
compared
to 0.7%
in the previous quarter.
Mining
and electricity,
and
water sectors
-6real value added, which increased by
This rebound was brought about
10,00 by Agriculture, Mining and
-9
21.1%,
47.7%,and
andwater
17.2%
respectively.
Despite
moderating
industrial output, Seelectricity,
sectors
real value
added,
which increased
negals
GDP growth
also
showed
bullish-12trend,
reaching
5.2%
in the fourth
quarby 21.1%,
47.7%,
and
17.2%arespectively.
Despite
moderating
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
6,25
output,
Senegals
growth also showed a bullish
ter, industrial
up from 3.7%
in the
previous GDP
quarter.
0000000
3375,0
Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members

(1000 barrel / day)
Steady growth in oil exporters countries
2008
6187,5
-2250,0
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Severe political and social unrest, such as that0 experienced by Arab Spring countries,
-1,25
is generally accompanied by a sharp deterioration
in macroeconomic outcomes.
15 -2,50
The recovery is often sluggish leading to 12increased unemployment, lower domestic
Spring countries, is generally -3,75
accompanied by a sharp
andArab
foreign
investment,
and fiscal
deficits.
With
declining
reserves, high external vul9
13
12
11 in macroeconomic
10
09
outcomes.
The recovery is
deterioration
-5,00
nerabilities
can
lead
to
large
currency
depreciation,
which
may give
higher 2012
in6
lower
often sluggish leading to increased unemployment,
2010rise to2011
2009
2008
3 and are
domestic
foreign
investment,
fiscal
deficits.
With
flation.
Many ofand
these
economic
characteristics
evident
in Egypt
and Tunisia and
0
reserves, high
external
vulnerabilities
can lead to
declining
require
the implementation
of fiscal
adjustment
measures.
3
countries
9000,0
562,5
-6
2012
2011
2010
2009
3375,0
-2
6
2008
large currency depreciation, which-3 may

give rise to higher
15
-6 12
inflation. Many of these economic characteristics
are evident in
Egypt and Tunisia and require the
-9 9implementation of fiscal
adjustment measures.
-12 6
009
Economic Growth ...

?
10
2012
2012
2011
2,50
6187,5
3375,0
-2
562,5
1,25
0
Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 7
-1,25
-2,50
-3,75
09
10
11
12
13
-5,00
2011
2010
2009
2008
2012
15
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2008
60
2 500,00
12
-2250,0
-6
Focus (1/3) ...?
9
6
Ghanaian economy
3
0
1 876,75
45
1 253,50
30
-3
After a temporary slowdown in 2009, Ghanas economy has witnessed a resurgence since 2010, expanding by 15% in 2011. De-6
15
cember 2010 marked the start of-9 its oil production, which has delivered a massive630,25
boost to the economy. In recent years, exports
have also been buoyed by high cocoa
and gold prices. Construction and service activities, which now account for 50% of GDP, have0
-12
7,00
2011
2010
2009
2008
also performed well. Supported by fiscal
tightening
measures
and2012
currency adjustments
the2013countrys ma2012
2011in 2009,
2010
2009 introduced
croeconomic fundamentals have further strengthened. In 2012, the economy expanded at a steady rate of 7.9%, amid rising fiscal
and external imbalances. Momentum has continued into 2013, despite fading base effects from oil extraction. Fiscal and monetary
policies have succeeded in reining
in inflation to single digits. Meanwhile, much remains to be done to achieve solid macroecono10,00
22
30,00
mic stability and sustainable economic development for the long term. The discovery of oil is at the same time an opportunity and
source of risk for Ghana.
6,25
18
18,75
2,50
-1,25
10
-3,75
-5,00
The
discovery
of2013oil reserves, which
positioned Ghana in second place after Nigeria
2012
2011
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
in terms of oil production in Sub-Saharan Africa, has given a major boost to the nations growth prospects. The global economic crisis of 20082009 saw GDP growth
decelerate from 8.4% in 2008 to 4% in 2009. Indeed, the economy registered an
150
average annual growth of 4.5% between
2001 and 2010. However, the countrys
140
GDP growth of 8.0% in 2010 and 15%
in 2011 was not solely due to its traditional
130
major exports of gold and cocoa. It was
the discovery and the start of oil extraction
120
110
at the Jubilee field that fueled the strong
economic performance of 2011.
2010
14
7,50
Economic growth boosted by oil sector
-15,00
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Ghana : GDP growth and sectoral contributions

(quarterly data, %)
2,00
20
1,75
15
1,50
10
1,25
100
1,00
90
2009
In 2012, economic output is estimated

to have expanded at a slower but steady
80
rate of 7.9%. As the contribution of industrial
sector faded across 2012, due to the
70
vanishing of base drift effects from the60 oil sector, growth moderated from 9% in the
2012
2011
2010
first
in the last quarter 2009
of 2012.
The growth
pattern2013
is also illus2012 6%2013
2011 to just
2010 quarter
Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day)
trated by the composite index of real economic activity, computed by Bank of Ghana.
This corroborates the deceleration across 2012, but with a moderate upturn at the
end of the year. Both business and consumer
confidence indexes in January 2013
15,00
rebounded strongly, pointing to positive expectations and strengthening activity for
the year ahead.
6,25
Algeria
Angola
Libya
Nigeria
2009
From the demand side, public and private

consumption was stimulated by oil in-2,50
comes, the rise of the wages of public2009sector
and
subsidies
on fuel prices.
2013
2012
2011
2010 workers,
On the supply side, national income-11,25
was boosted by high prices of raw materials
especially oil, gold and cocoa, which increased export revenues. With the emer-20,00
gence of the oil industry, the value added
of the industrial sector accounts for one2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
fourth
2011GDP. 2012
2010of total
Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly data, % annual change )
Ghanas exports of crude oil for the year 2012 surpassed cocoa in terms of value.
The percentage share of total exports was: cocoa at 20.7%, oil at 23%; with gold still
in first position at 54.2%. The contribution of the services sector to GDP growth remains decisive. According to Ghana Statistical Service, the services sector accounted for about 45.5% of GDP in 2012, thanks to the dynamism of the
telecommunications and trade sectors.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
08
0,75
-5
09
08
07
10
12
11
0,50
140,
4000
120,
100,
3000
80,
61,
41,
2000
21,
1000
Ghana: Economic activity (monthly composite index)
0
400,00002008
2012
2011
2010
2009
333,0545
266,1090
199,1636
132,2181
65,2726
-1,6729
08
09
10
11
12
2,
-17,
-1,25
8 | Statistics Department | First Quarter

2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
-5,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
10
-3,75
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2,00
150
00
20
140
18
120
55
100
92
90
11
Ghanaian economy (continued)
60
2009
0,75
-5
Current
account
balance
remains healthy 2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
0,50
12
11
10
09
08
07
2013
2012
2011
2010
Ghana : Main exports (quarterly data, current US$)
Despite the rise in oil exports, Ghanas current account continues to post a high deficit, mainly due to the deterioration in the trade balance. The current account com15,00
ponent of the balance of payments amounted
to -12.64% of GDP in 2012, according
to the IMF. Total merchandise imports amounted to US$17.7 billion in 2012, an in6,25
crease of 12.1% over 2011. Non-oil imports grew by 13.9% to US$14.4 billion, while
oil imports grew moderately by 5%. -2,50
4000
3000
2000
1000
These developments resulted in a trade

deficit of US$4.2 billion in 2012, compared
-11,25
with US$3.1 billion in 2011. Imports will continue to grow at a rapid pace in line with
the dynamism of domestic demand and
the oil sector requirements in capital goods.
-20,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Servicing
the
current
account
deficit
will
hinge
on strong
capital
inflows,
including
2012
2011
2010
2009
foreign direct investments in the oil sector and bond purchases by nonresident investors. The overall balance of payments therefore recorded a deficit of US$1.2 billion in 2012, reversing the surplus of US$546.5 million achieved in 2011.
08
0
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Ghana : Public finance (millions of GH edi)
The balance of services and incomes will10also continue to weigh on the current account deficit, mainly through the repatriation of dividends by nonresident investors,
in spite of a positive but modest contribution
from current transfers.
6
00
75
50
9000,0
6187,5
25
10
Raising public deficit
25
,50
9000,0
3375,0
-2
6187,5
562,5
Provisional data on Ghanas public finances and the execution of the budget during
2012 showed that total revenue and grants
increased by around 30%, compared to
2
-6
2012of higher revenue
2010
2009
2008 the previous
year,
on2011
account
petroleum
2012in2011and an
2010 taxes
2008 from2009
-2
crease of 20.6% on a year-on-year basis
in value added tax collection. The improved performance of import duty was attributed to a number of factors including
2 500,00
-6
increased
imports,
improvements
in import
valuations,
and the cedi depreciation du2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
ring the year. Government spending in 2012 was equivalent to 35.2% of GDP and
1 876,75
recorded 56% growth. On a year-on-year basis, recurrent expenditure grew by
64.6%.
2 500,00
1 253,50
,75
,00
3375,0
-2250,0
-2250,0 60
2008
45
30
2013
2012
2011
2010
22
7,50
18
14
7,50
-15,00
140
120
20
90
15
80
10
70
60
15,00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
10
6
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
13
12
11
10
09
2,00
13
12
11
10
09
1,75
1,50
10
2,00
1,25
1,75
1,00
1,50
0,75
-5
12
11
10
09
08
07
1,25
0,50
13
12
11
10
09
08
1,00
0,75
-5
2010
14
08
2009
12
11
10
09
10
15
130
100
12
11
10
09
08
6
2008
20
110
22
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-15,00
2013
2012
2011
2010
18
-3,75
150
009
15
08
18,75
-3,75
2009
30
15
18,75
30,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
45
Ghana
: Monetary survey (monthly data, year on year
change in %)
1 876,75
Furthermore, non-interest payments accounted
for 76.3% of the recurrent expendi630,25
ture. These high non-interest payments were driven mainly by personnel emoluments
and 2009
transfers,
which 2011
together2012accounted1 253,50
for 7,00
82.3% and 71.9% of non-interest ex2010
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
penditure and domestic revenues respectively. These
developments
resulted
in a
630,25
budget deficit equivalent to 12.0% of GDP
against a target of 6.7% of GDP and
compared to a deficit equivalent to 4.0 % of GDP in 2011. The deficit was financed
7,00
2012
2011
2010
2009
largely
from
domestic
sources.
Ghanas 30,00
total public
debt
to 46.0%
of GDP
in
2013
2012
2010 rose2011
2009
December 2012 from 34.4% of GDP in December 2011.
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
562,5
60
4000
07
08
09
10
11
12
1,25
1,00
70
47
Focus (2/3) ...

?
80
29
1,50
10
110
74
1,75
15
130
37
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0,50
140,000
120,328
08
09
10
11
12
13
9000,0
-2250,0
-6
6187,5
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
60
562,5
-2

2012
2011
2010
2009
45
1 876,75
2012
2011
2010
2009
20081 253,50
60
Inflationary pressures emerge in the first quarter 2013

2010
2011
2012
7,00
1 876,75
2011
2010
2009
2012
45
2013
In mid-2009, Ghana faced high inflationary pressures and a fall in the value of the cedi
1 253,50
against major currencies. This threatened
public and external balances and required
adjustment policies under the Extended
Credit Facility granted by the IMF. Since
30,00
630,25
then, the situation has improved. However, after posting single-digit inflation in 2011
and 2012, the inflation rate rose to 10.4%
18,75 in March 2013. Inflationary pressures in7,00
2012
2011
2009
clude2010
the pass-through
effect of a previous2009
surge in
prices,
combined
with
2013
2012
2011
2010producer
public sector wage increases, and a sharp
7,50 increase in government domestic borrowing.
30,00
-3,75
At the start of 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana maintai-15,00
ned
its2011
policy rate
at 15%,
after successive
rises introduced during 2012. The cen18,75
2013
2012
2010
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
tral banks Governor sees a broadly positive growth outlook for 2013, underpinned
by private sector credit expansion,
7,50 improved business and consumer sentiments
and increased oil production in the last quarter of 2012. The BoG may need to tigh20 its target rate of 8.5%.
ten its monetary policy to keep inflation
below
-3,75
15
Pressures
on exchange
rate easing
2013
2012
2011
-15,00
2010
30
15
0
Ghana : Inflation and interest rate (monthly data, %)
15
22
18
22
18
10
6
The Bank of Ghana has mounted a defense4000

of the cedi, consisting of aggressive interest rate hikes, as well as micro and0macro prudential measures. Exchange rate
tensions are likely to persist in 2013 due
the balance of payments deficit and un-5 to 3000
12
11
10
09
08
07
certainties
about
the
2013level of capital outflows of equities and debt.
2012
2011
2010
2,00
10
1,75
1,50
13
12
11
10
09
1,25
Ghana : Exchange rate of GH edi

1,00 currency per US$, monthly average)
(local
12
2,00
0,75
1,75
0,50
08
1,50
09
10
11
12
13
1,25
140,000
1,00
120,328
0,75
100,656
80,985
0,50
61,313
08
13
12
11
10
09
41,641
2000
21,969
4000
3000
09
13
14
2009
12
11
10
09
08
08
In 2012, the cumulative depreciation of the cedi for the year stood at 17.5%, com0
pared to 5% depreciation in 2011. The Ghanaian
cedi has been put under pressure
20
-5
from both domestic and external factors.
Domestic
factors include the surge in im11
10
09 include
08 factors
15
ports
loose 2012
fiscal and
while07 external
global
2013 monetary policies,
2010 and2011
risk aversion which favors safe haven 10
currencies like the dollar.
12
11
10
09
08
14
2012
2011
2010
2009
12
11
10
09
08
2008 10
2012
2011
2010
2009
30 2008
Ghanaian economy (continued)
630,25
2009
Focus (3/3) ...?
-2250,0
-6
2 500,00
2008
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3375,0
2 500,00
009
2012
2011
2010
2009
562,5| First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 9

Statistics Department
-2
10
2008
3375,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000
140,000
2,297
120,328
-17,374
2008
100,656
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
2009
2010
2011
80,985
61,313
41,641
2000
21,969
2,297
1000
-17,374
2008
0
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2012
-15,00
13
12
11
10
09
08
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008

2,00
20
1,75
15
1,50
10
1,25
?v Africa in the World Economy5

2.2 - AFRICA: Merchandise trade
-5
2011
2012
2013
07
08
09
10
11
12
0,75
0,50
0
Trade among developing countries
has seen a significant rise over the past decade
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
and
more than 50% of all developing country trade. Even excluding
2013
2012 now represents
exports to China, trade among developing countries has been very robust. East Asia,
South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the regions where this SouthSouth trade
grew fastest, though at a lower rate in countries that have preferential trade agreements with high-income economies.
13
12
11
10
09
08
World trade volume forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2013
Graph 12. World merchandise imports (Volume

2005Q1=100)
140,000
In 2012, world trade volume growth slumped to 2.0%, from 5.2% in 2011. Accor4000
ding to the WTO, world merchandise trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2013
at around 3.3%, as the economic slowdown in the eurozone and high unemployment
3000
dampen import demand. The abrupt deceleration of trade during 2011 and 2012 is
bound up with the uneven global recovery, and the slowdown in advanced econo2000
mies. In 2012, exports of developing economies grew by 3.3%, while imports of
these countries grew by 4.6%. This is a much stronger performance than that of the
1000
advanced economies, which saw
their imports decline by 0.1%.
2011
Foreign Trade ...

?
1,00
120,328
100,656
80,985
61,313
41,641
21,969
2,297
-17,374
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Graph 13. Africa - Merchandise exports (Values in current

US $, year to year % change)
60
4 000
50
Merchandise imports of African countries decelerated over the course of 2012

After seeing its exports shrink by 8.5% in 2011, Africa rebounded in 2012 to record
the fastest export growth of any region, at 6.1%. Africas imports grew by 11.3%,
making it the only region to record double-digit growth.
South Africas results for 2012 were less impressive, recording a significant fall of
11% in merchandise exports over the year. Notable decreases in inventories were registered in the mining and manufacturing sectors, with production setbacks partly
met by running down stock levels. This contributed to a broadly unchanged volume
of exports in the final quarter of the year, with a recovery in mining exports especially iron ore and coal countered by a decline in exports of manufactured goods.
The volume of imports receded moderately in the final quarter of 2012, weighed
down largely by lower imports of vehicles and transport equipment.
3 500
30
3 250
20
3 000
60
10
50
40
-10
30
-20
20
10
3 750
40
2 750
4 000
2 500
3 750
2 250
2 000
3 500
1 750
3 250
-30
1 500
3 000
-40
2 750
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-20
2 000
1 750
60
15,00
-30
-40
1 500
35
11,25
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Graph 14. Africa - Merchandise imports (Values in current

10
US $, year to year % change)
60
7,50
15,00
3,75
-15
However, the value of merchandise imports in South Africa increased over the period, largely due to a significant depreciation of the rand. This also underpinned an
increase in the rand value of exports. Despite a moderate deterioration in the terms
of trade, there was a slight narrowing of the trade deficit from the third to the fourth
quarter. Simultaneously, the deficit on the services, income and current transfer account contracted marginally, causing the current account deficit to decrease to 6.5%
of GDP and this approximate level is expected to be maintained in 2013.
2 500
2 250
-10
35
11,25
0
-40
-15
2010
2009
2008
10
2011
2012
3,75
300
-40
7,50
275
35
250
030
225
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
25
200
20
175
15
300
150
275
125
35
100
30
250
225
200
75
25
50
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
175
20
10
125
100
75
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
0
-5
15
150
50
10
-5
140
130 2009
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
15
12
9
6
15 3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
12 0
9
6
3
Africa in the World Economy

Foreign Trade ...?

2.2 - AFRICA: Summary of trade statistics
(%)
Table 5 : Merchandise trade for selected African countries
2011 Q.1
Country
2011 Q.2
2011 Q.3
i
Exports
Country
2011 Q.4
2012 Q.1
2012 Q.2
2012 Q.3
2012 Q.4
Algeria
11.1
27.0
36.7
29.1
12.5
1.2
-3.9
-7.7
Mauritius
19.9
19.2
11.6
9.2
5.8
4.0
2.3
1.5
Morocco
30.6
27.0
19.3
11.4
29.1
1.6
12.5
-3.1
-2.4
-1.3
Nigeria
Mauritius
38.3
19.9
43.9
19.2
35.2
11.6
23.6
9.2
6.7
5.8
0.9
4.0
-5.0
2.3
-5.8
1.5
Tanzania
Morocco
33.0
30.6
24.4
27.0
11.8
19.3
8.5
11.4
13.4
1.6
19.1
-3.1
26.2
-2.4
21.6
-1.3
Tunisia
Nigeria
14.4
38.3
12.9
43.9
9.3
35.2
1.9
23.6
-4.6
6.7
-7.1
0.9
-6.9
-5.0
-3.7
-5.8
Algeria
11.1
27.0
36.7
1.2
-3.9
-7.7
Imports
Algeria
Tunisia
19.9
14.4
20.0
12.9
16.4
9.3
4.9
1.9
-0.9
-4.6
-4.9
-7.1
1.6
-6.9
6.3
-3.7
Mauritius
16.3
20.2
15.7
12.7
9.7
5.4
-1.2
-3.8
Algeria
Morocco
19.9
21.2
20.0
29.0
16.4
25.0
4.9
15.6
-0.9
5.4
-4.9
-1.6
1.6
-2.0
6.3
-1.8
Mauritius
Nigeria
16.3
34.9
20.2
31.9
15.7
26.1
12.7
-0.1
9.7
-4.1
5.4
-11.4
-1.2
-8.8
-3.8
-2.1
Morocco
Tanzania
21.2
23.3
29.0
33.9
25.0
45.3
15.6
41.6
5.4
25.1
-1.6
9.1
-2.0
2.4
-1.8
3.8
Nigeria
Tunisia
34.9
4.2
31.9
8.5
26.1
10.8
-0.1
10.3
-4.1
4.5
-11.4
2.4
-8.8
-1.3
-2.1
0.6
23.3
33.9
45.3
41.6
25.1
9.1
2.4
3.8
Tanzania
Tunisia
Country
Table 6
Algeria
: Exports for selected African countries
Country
Angola
17183.9
2011 Q.1
Algeria
14077.2
Angola
14077.2
Benin
Burkina Faso
Benin
Cameroon
Burkina
Faso
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Cameroon
Congo, Rep.
Congo,
Dem. Rep.
Cote d'Ivoire
Congo,
Rep.
17183.9
179.1
158.3
179.1
(current millions of US$, s.a)
18950.1
2011 Q.2
14301.4
18950.1
233.2
14301.4
191.1
233.2
18692.9
2011 Q.3
15007.0
18692.9
215.7
15007.0
214.4
215.7
18669.6
2011 Q.4
16112.2
18669.6
202.8
16112.2
215.6
202.8
15702.5
2012 Q.1
17686.2
15702.5
272.4
17686.2
214.6
272.4
13927.6
2012 Q.2
17865.1
13927.6
221.2
17865.1
244.0
221.2
13456.0
2012 Q.3
15066.1
13456.0
246.2
15066.1
182.1
246.2
13646.6
2012 Q.4
16041.4
13646.6
210.0
16041.4
156.8
210.0
1220.3
158.3
1528.4
191.1
1271.3
214.4
1240.3
215.6
1395.1
214.6
1317.9
244.0
1333.4
182.1
1795.8
156.8
1427.0
1220.3
1393.6
1528.4
1567.4
1271.3
1546.9
1240.3
1440.9
1395.1
1600.4
1317.9
1353.2
1333.4
1231.1
1795.8
2505.3
1427.0
2741.2
1393.6
3097.7
1567.4
2609.4
1546.9
3182.4
1440.9
2619.7
1600.4
2234.6
1353.2
2782.3
1231.1
2154.4
2505.3
2997.2
2741.2
3362.6
3097.7
2359.3
2609.4
2834.9
3182.4
2529.5
2619.7
2522.1
2234.6
2689.8
2782.3
Djibouti
Cote
d'Ivoire
115.0
2154.4
124.8
2997.2
130.7
3362.6
159.5
2359.3
137.8
2834.9
149.6
2529.5
146.9
2522.1
142.2
2689.8
Djibouti
Egypt
7157.4
115.0
7824.7
124.8
7647.2
130.7
7841.6
159.5
7477.6
137.8
6759.1
149.6
6535.3
146.9
7834.2
142.2
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
7157.4
2639.1
7824.7
2762.8
7647.2
3214.5
7841.6
3045.0
7477.6
3418.0
6759.1
3270.0
6535.3
3664.3
7834.2
3784.6
Equatorial
Ethiopia Guinea
2639.1
502.8
2762.8
517.7
3214.5
528.2
3045.0
498.9
3418.0
463.6
3270.0
512.1
3664.3
494.7
3784.6
519.8
Ethiopia
Gabon
502.8
2558.7
517.7
2615.0
528.2
2376.8
498.9
2526.4
463.6
2614.9
512.1
2607.3
494.7
2716.5
519.8
2569.7
Gabon
Ghana
2558.7
1729.2
2615.0
2194.5
2376.8
2147.2
2526.4
2484.1
2614.9
2170.2
2607.3
2001.3
2716.5
1915.4
2569.7
1847.4
Guinea
558.8
664.4
586.5
387.9
605.3
509.0
421.6
467.6
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
Libya
Libya
Madagascar
Madagascar
Mauritania
Mauritania
1729.2
558.8
2194.5
664.4
2147.2
586.5
2484.1
387.9
2170.2
605.3
2001.3
509.0
1915.4
421.6
35.0
35.0
10013.4
49.9
49.9
1866.0
82.9
82.9
787.3
127.2
127.2
2980.0
53.5
53.5
9379.5
50.9
50.9
14016.1
46.0
46.0
16233.2
318.5
359.1
536.6
410.7
486.3
381.2
353.2
789.5
814.9
10013.4
318.5
809.0
809.0
1866.0
359.1
789.5
787.3
536.6
814.9
2980.0
410.7
633.3
633.3
9379.5
486.3
730.9
730.9
14016.1
381.2
806.9
806.9
16233.2
353.2
662.7
662.7
1847.4
467.6
32.7
32.7
16010.4
16010.4
499.2
499.2
641.7
641.7
Mauritius
560.2
563.4
552.1
501.8
561.4
576.9
542.4
627.2
Morocco
5200.6
5257.2
5484.2
5469.8
5485.4
5098.0
5136.2
5588.4
974.6
974.6
771.4
771.4
992.0
992.0
1014.2
1014.2
1021.6
1021.6
1016.5
1016.5
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Mozambique
Niger
Niger
Nigeria
Nigeria
Seychelles
Seychelles
South Africa
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
Chief
Complex, ECON
ECON
Chief Economist
Economist Complex,
560.2
5200.6
954.5
954.5
114.6
114.6
563.4
5257.2
161.1
161.1
552.1
5484.2
94.3
94.3
501.8
5469.8
909.9
909.9
161.3
161.3
561.4
5485.4
200.5
200.5
576.9
5098.0
154.4
154.4
542.4
5136.2
84.9
84.9
627.2
5588.4
64.0
64.0
25978.2
25978.2
91.5
91.5
28366.3
28366.3
84.6
84.6
26964.4
26964.4
85.8
85.8
25077.9
25077.9
97.7
97.7
27882.1
27882.1
103.4
103.4
27828.9
27828.9
104.8
104.8
25040.9
25040.9
108.7
108.7
26423.3
26423.3
93.8
93.8
24135.1
24885.6
24507.3
24507.3
23382.5
23382.5
23869.1
23869.1
21844.6
21844.6
20835.7
20835.7
21250.8
21250.8
4245.4
4800.2
4526.0
4526.0
4238.0
4238.0
4361.2
4361.2
4218.7
4218.7
4062.5
4062.5
4494.6
4494.6
601.2
668.1
706.8
706.8
607.7
607.7
661.4
661.4
736.6
736.6
778.3
778.3
693.1
693.1
2034.8
1631.9
1548.0
1548.0
1461.3
1461.3
1337.0
1337.0
1709.5
1709.5
1372.4
1372.4
1496.2
1496.2
547.8
547.8
728.6
728.6
603.0
603.0
615.5
615.5
675.7
675.7
574.0
574.0
528.3
528.3
595.6
595.6
11
11
30
3 250
20
3 000
10
2 750
2 500
2 250
-10
2 000
-20
1 750
-30
1 500
60
-40
4 000
50
40
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
3 500
30
3 250
3 000
20
60
2 750
15,00
10
0
Commodity Prices ...

?
-10
35
2.3 - AFRICA: Commodity trends
-20
1 500
7,50
60
15,00
-40
2011
2010
2009
2008
35
2012
7,50
35
-15 275
3,75
30
250
-40
225
25
2009
2008
2010
2011
2012
100275
35
75250
30
50225
-5
25
200
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
175
150
5
0
75
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100
140 50
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50140
40130
30120
20110
20
15
125
Cereal prices have been moving in the opposite direction since the start of 2013, with
60
wheat retreating more than 10%. Global
wheat production is expected to recover in
50
2013 though, after the major drought
that hit eastern Europe in 2012. After mode40
rating at the end of 2012, corn prices30 have risen by more than 5% since the start of
2013.
20
10
125300
Downside pressures on industrial metal prices are largely associated with slower
global economic growth, rising domestic production, and relatively high inventories.
Combined with growing concerns over the Chinese economy, these developments
had a dampening effect on industrial metal prices Gold prices decreased significantly during the first quarter of 2013. April 15 saw its biggest tumble in two years
(to US$1,321 per ounce), compared to its high of US$ 1,921 in September 2011. Silver has also seen a drop of 11%. Various factors are at play here: the sell-off of gold
reserves by Cyprus sending worrying signals, weaker economic data coming out of
China, plus the US dollars surge. The drop in prices, despite the highly accommodative policies taken by many central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, raises
some doubt about golds potential to maintain its upward trajectory of recent years.
20
15
150
Precious and industrial metals prices down in March and April
300
175
Fundamental factors are primarily responsible for the price retreat. Austerity measures in the eurozone have seen consumers cutting back on personal expenditure,
including gasoline. Demand remains very low and the International Energy Agency
has downgraded the global demand forecast for 2013. Also, the surge in U.S. production is putting the brakes on prices.
11,25
Graph 15. Commodity prices (indexes, 100=2005)

10
200
The energy index dropped by 4.1% in March, following an increase of 2.3% in the
previous month. At the time of writing (mid-April 2013), prices have seen a marked
decrease, with Brent crude below US$100 per barrel for the first time since July
2012 and West Texas intermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. Both have fallen
9% in the first half of April.
3,75
-15
Crude oil futures fell on reduced refinery demand
2 250
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
During March 2013, prices for most commodities fell close to their December 2012
levels. Concerns over the slowdown in Chinas economy, intensified by the announcement of new measures to curb the countrys real estate sector, hit base metal
prices particularly hard. Raw material prices have also been hurt by the US dollars
surge since the start of 2013. The IMF commodity price index was down in March
2013 by 3.7% on a monthly basis, following an increase of 1.6% recorded in February.
2 500
2 000
11,25
1 750
-30
10
-40
Commodity prices showing signs of a slowdown
3 750
15
-5
2009
2010
2011
2013
2012
12
9
Graph 16. Crude oil (US$ per barrel)

6
15
3
12
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6
3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Graph 17. Cocoa beans (US$ / metric tonne)

15
4 000
3 750
12
3 500
3 250
3 000
2 750
10
0
Weak economic growth in several major
economies is curbing demand for commo-10
dities. This, together with a supply -20
that exceeds demand, should keep the lid on
commodity prices in the months to come.
However, if global growth accelerates as
-30
-40
expected at mid-year, prices could start
to trend upward again.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2 500
2 250
2 000
1 750
1 500
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
60
15,00
35
11,25
10
7,50
-15
3,75
28,227
23,338
18,448
13,558
8,669
3,779
-40
2008
300
2009
2010
2011
2012
-1,110
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-6,000

Commodity Prices ...?

2.3 - AFRICA: Summary of commodity prices
Table 7 : Commodity Prices
Commodity
2011
2013
2012
Source : World Bank
Jan. 2013
Feb. 2013
2012 /2011
Mar. 2013
Mar 2013 / Q1 2013 / Q4Q1 2013 / Q1

Feb 2013
2012
2012
Energy
Coal, Australia, $/mt
121.4
96.4
92.8
94.9
92.2
-20.7
7.4
-17.9
Crude oil, Brent, $/b
110.9
112.0
113.0
116.5
109.2
0.9
2.2
-4.8
Crude oil, WTI, $/b
95.1
94.2
94.7
95.3
92.9
-0.9
7.0
-8.3
Natural gas, Europe, $/mmbtu
10.5
11.5
11.9
11.8
11.9
9.1
0.9
2.8
Cocoa, c/kg
298.0
239.2
227.5
219.8
215.3
-19.7
-9.9
-5.6
Coffee, Arabica, c/kg
597.6
411.1
346.8
329.5
330.2
-31.2
-6.1
-31.1
Coffee, Robusta, c/kg
240.8
226.7
219.8
229.3
234.3
-5.8
3.8
2.6
Tea, Kokata auctions, c/kg
277.9
275.0
266.0
253.1
255.1
-1.0
-11.4
25.7
Tea, Mombasa auctions, c/kg
271.9
288.1
305.2
291.3
265.5
5.9
-4.2
7.7
Agriculture
Beverages & oils
Palm oil ($/mt)
1 125.4
999.3
841.0
863.0
854.0
-11.2
5.4
-23.0
Soybean oil ($/mt)
1 299.3
1 226.3
1 190.0
1 175.0
1 116.0
-5.6
0.2
-7.4
Grains
Maize, $/mt
291.7
298.4
303.1
302.7
309.0
2.3
-3.8
9.8
Rice, Thailand, 5%, $/mt
543.0
563.0
564.2
563.0
559.0
3.7
0.7
3.6
Sorghum, $/mt
268.7
271.9
291.0
288.1
296.7
1.2
2.3
8.3
Wheat, US, SRW, $/mt
285.9
295.4
309.0
298.0
285.9
3.3
-11.8
14.9
1 124.7
1 099.7
1 095.6
1 112.4
937.0
-2.2
-4.9
-8.2
Beef, c/kg
968.0
984.0
928.7
923.2
937.0
1.7
-1.6
-11.7
Oranges, $/mt
404.2
414.2
430.7
428.0
422.7
2.5
1.9
0.6
1 537.4
1 558.3
1 919.0
1 884.0
1 802.0
1.4
5.2
43.8
891.1
868.0
739.2
883.6
907.0
-2.6
-2.2
9.4
484.8
390.5
607.5
451.4
360.5
610.3
465.6
334.1
612.9
466.9
319.7
586.4
436.2
313.8
575.6
-6.9
-7.7
0.5
0.7
-8.6
-3.3
-1.6
-13.6
-3.5
Cotton, A Index, c/kg
332.9
196.7
188.5
197.8
208.2
-40.9
9.5
-10.5
Rubber, Singapore, c/kg
482.3
337.7
330.4
318.6
297.6
-30.0
1.9
-18.1
DAP, $/mt
618.9
539.8
485.0
482.3
507.5
-12.8
-7.6
-4.8
Phosphate rock, $/mt
184.9
185.9
179.0
170.0
170.0
0.5
-6.5
-11.7
Aluminum, $/ton
2 401.4
2 023.3
2 037.8
2 053.6
1 909.6
-15.7
-0.1
-8.2
Copper, $/mt
8 828.2
7 962.3
8 047.4
8 060.9
7 645.6
-9.8
0.1
-4.8
Gold, $/toz
1 569.2
167.8
240.1
1 669.5
128.5
206.5
1 671.8
150.8
233.4
1 627.6
154.7
236.6
1 593.1
139.9
216.9
6.4
-23.4
-14.0
-5.1
22.8
4.0
-3.6
4.7
9.5
22 910.4 17 547.5
Other Food
Bananas, EU, $/mt
Sugar, EU, c/kg

Sugar, world, c/kg
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Cameroon, $/cum
Plywood, c/sheets
Sawnwood, Cameroon, $/cum
Other Raw Materials
Metals and Minerals
Iron ore, c/dmtu

Lead, c/kg
17 472.5
17 690.1
16 724.9
-23.4
1.8
-11.9
Silver, c/toz
3 522.4
3 113.7
3 106.2
3 032.9
2 879.1
-11.6
-7.8
-7.7
Tin, c/kg
2 605.4
2 112.6
2 454.6
2 421.2
2 329.7
-18.9
11.1
4.9
219.4
195.0
203.2
212.9
192.6
-11.1
3.9
0.2
1 719.5
1 550.8
1 638.9
1 674.6
1 583.0
-9.8
2.1
1.7
Nickel, $/mt
Zinc, c/kg
Platinum ($/troy oz)
/
slight (-/+) change
moderate (-/+) change
large (-/+) change
13
60
3 750
40
3 500
30
3 250
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply
20
2 500
Inflation easing, with notable exceptions

60
40
50
-20
-30
-30
15
2 000
3 750
4 000
1 750
3 500
3 750
1 500
3 500
3 250
15
200
300
In Namibia, inflation edged down to 6.2%

in February and March, from 6.6% recor300
150
250
ded in January, as a result of slight drops
in the price of food and non-alcoholic be275
125
225
250
verages.
200
100
750
2Graph
2 500
150
18. Africa - Inflation (monthly data, median values)
2 500
17575
125
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100
125
Although a disinflationary trend generally
75prevailed across the continent, domestic
100
50
factors are fueling inflation in some countries
(Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia). Po2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
75
litical unrest is causing supply shortages
in some
North
African
countries
(Tunisia,
50
Egypt), and this is driving up domestic food
prices 2010
and inching
up inflation
rates.
In
2013
2012
2011
2009
Egypt, the urban inflation rate has accelerated
steeply over the past 4 months, from
140
130
4.7% in December 2012 to 7.6% in March
2013.
120
110
100
140
13090
12080
11070
100
60
90
50
80
7040
6030
5020
In Tunisia, in response to political turmoil and social protest, as well as declining

world commodity prices in general, transition governments during 2011 and 2012 in140
creased food and fuel subsidies. They
130 also increased public sector wages in res120
ponse to rising unemployment (officially
at 17%) and poverty. However, maintaining
110
the subsidies has proved challenging10090for the government, which fears a budget de40
2013
2012 of state2011the price
2010 raised
2009
80
ficit of around 6% in 2013. In response,
the authorities
30
70
controlled milk in early 2012 and then60the20price of gasoline at the pumps by around
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
6.8%. In March 2013 the government 5040imposed a levy of 1% on salaries above 1,700
30 remaining subsidies on fuel and food. The
dinars ($1,075) per month to help fund
20
withdrawal of some subsidies has driven up
2013,
2013 with
2012
2011 in March
2010 to 6.5%
2009 inflation
food inflation hitting two digits and fuel prices rising by nearly 7%.
20
2 250
2 000
000
215,00
28,227
1 500
1 500
2009
11,252009
2013
2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2010
23,338
2009
2009
18,448
7,50
13,558
15,00
15,00
8,669
3,75
28,227
28,227
23,3383,779
11,25
11,25
7,50
23,338
18,448-1,110
2009
7,50
2010
2011
18,448
2013
2012
13,558
-6,000
13,558
8,669
3,75
8,669
3,75
3,779
3,779
0 35
30
-1,110
2009
-6,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
-1,110
25 19. Inflation in the Horn of Africa (monthly data, %

Graph
change m/m-12)
20
35
35 30
30 25
20
150
2 250
25
Rising inflationary pressures in some countries

50
175
9
9
3 000
2 750
175
275
200
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
3 250
3 000
1 750
-30
Many central banks in the continent
reacted to weakening inflation pressures and
-40
-40 35
moderate growth by easing monetary
policy.
In2009
addition,
weak
global2012environ2011 2011
2010the
2008
2012
2010
2009
2008
ment encouraged many central banks to cut their policy rates, in an effort to inject
10
liquidity into real economy. Kenya and Uganda were among the most aggressive in
60
60
cutting policy rates in 2012. High inflation rates experienced during 2011 in these
-15
countries, and also in Tanzania, have eased
since the end of 2011, partly as a result
35
35
of favorable rains and as a result of more stringent monetary policies. In Kenya, where
-40
monetary tightening had been deployed
in inflation,
the2010
headline2011
inflation 2012
rate
10 to rein
2009
2008
10
increased slightly in February (4.5%) and March (4.1%), from a low of 3.3% in November 2012. In Tanzania, the annual -15
inflation rate for March 2013 declined to 9.8%
-15
from 10.4% the previous month, with food300 inflation rate decreasing by one percen-40
tage point to 10.7% in March from 11.7%
in February. In Uganda, the annual head275
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-40
line Inflation rate for March 2013 rose to20084.0%
from
recorded
250
2012
2011in the previous
2009 3.5%2010
month.
225
12
12
1 750
-20
225
2 250
4 000
40
30
the
After a continuous upward trend from
-40 end of 2010 to mid-2012, inflation in Africa
30
20
2012 in2011Although
2010
2009
2008has continued
edged down in the latter part of 2012
and this
into 2013.
20
10
10
flation seems to have largely been0 contained
in most African countries, there are a
0
-10
few notable exceptions such as Ghana,
South Africa, and Tunisia, as detailed below.
-10 60
-20
2 750
-10
50
12
3 000
10
60
Inflation / Money Supply ...

?
15
10
5
20
15
10
-6,000
15
12
15
12
10
12
9
5
0
69
-5
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
36
-3
03
-3
-5
2009
2010
2013
2012
2011
-3
-5
15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
50
40
12
15
50
Graph
20. Inflation : consumer prices (monthly data, %
9
change m/m-12)
12
40
15
30
50
30
40
12
6
20
30
9
3
10
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
20
0
15
9
15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
2013
10
0
2009
2010
2011
AfDB 2012 - Design, ERCU/YAL
15
4 000
50
20
10
60
60
50
3 500
30
3 250
20
3 000
10
4 000 2 750
0
-10
30
-20
20
10
3 750
40
40
20
30
40
60
35
3 750
3 500
3 250
3 000
-30
2 750
-40
2010
2009
2008
10
15
4 000
50
2011
2012
73,748
9
2012
2011
2010
2 000
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply
1 750
1 500
2009
2010
2011
2012
-40
2008
225
2013
2009
25
Stagflation risk in South Africa !
2010
2011
2012
2013
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
10
The SARB (South Africa Reserve Bank) has35 warned
of the risk of stagflation, cha5
racterized by low growth and rising inflation. 30Inflation in March 2013 rose to 6% the
0
75
top end of the Reserve Banks target after25 increasing
by 5.9% in February. Slug-5
50
20
2013
2012 a degish 2009
global demand
combined
with2013domestic structural
constraints
to growth,
2011
2010
2009
2012
2011
2010
15
preciating rand, and above-inflation wage hikes
have been contributory factors. In
regard to the monetary sector, credit growth10 trends have reflected monetary policy
5
and rising inflation. Private sector credit growth
slowed to 7.9% in February 2012
0
from almost 10% in late 2012, while aggregate
money supply accelerated to 7.7%
15
140
in February from 5.2% growth in December -52012 and 6.7% in January 2013.
125
100
2012
2011
2010
28,227
2013
12
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
18,750
5,000
300
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
23,338
250
18,448
200
13,558
300
8,669
28,227
150
3,779
23,338
250
100
-1,110
18,448
200
-6,000
13,558
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
8,669
50
200
150
3,779
15
100
-1,110
12
9
150
1302009
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Graph 21. Inflation : producer prices (manufacturing,

monthly data, % change m/m-12)
6,777
5,814
-6,000
15
2009
32,499
20
175
275
5,000
46,249
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
7,50
200
300
18,750
59,999
2 250
2012
2011
2010
2009
73,748
9
0
After registering single-digit inflation rates for both 2011 and 2012, Ghana is seeing
a recent rise caused by a delayed pass-through
of increased producer prices com3,75
300
bined with public sector wage increases granted
and
a sharp increase in government
35
275
domestic
borrowing
(see
Focus).
0 30
250
-15
46,249
Inflation / Money Supply ...?87,498

32,499
12
-40
2009
101,248
6
2 250
2 000(excluding food and energy), exhibited

Similarly, core inflation measured by the CPI
1 750
a steady upward trend during 2012 and persisted
into 2013, triggered mainly by the
15,00
1 500
surge in commodity prices. This suggests that the
pu2013
2012 of the
2011 effects
2010
2009 pass-through
2012 rise in imported
2011
2010
2009
2008 blic sector
35
11,25 prices have yet to surface. Howewages
increase
and
ver, Tunisian producer prices remained stable during the year. This reflects profit
10
7,50
margin cutting by domestic producers to 15,00
preserve
their competitiveness. In order to
address the country's fiscal and balance of payments deficits and create conditions
-15
3,75
for a sustained recovery of the economy, the
central bank of Tunisia is maintaining a
11,25
tight monetary policy stance.
0
2008
59,999
15
60
10
87,498
12
2 500
2 500
101,248
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
South Africa : money and credits (monthly data,

Graph 22.
6
% change on previous year)
15 3
50
4,851
200
3,889
6,777
2,926
12 0
5,814
1,963
9 -3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4,851
1,000
3,889
3
2,926
0
-3
4001,963
50
40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
350
1,000
300
9
30
250
20
200
15
5010
12
40 0
150
400
100
350
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
300
30
250
20
200
10
20
150
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
20
Inflation ...
?
2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation summary
(in %)
Table 9 : Inflation on consumer prices
2011
2012
2013
Country
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Rep.
Cte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania, United Rep.
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
4.0
14.6
2.1
8.0
2.0
8.0
2.9
5.2
2.4
-3.2
1.5
1.9
6.6
4.7
12.0
7.3
33.9
1.5
5.5
8.8
22.6
6.6
13.2
4.4
8.0
12.1
10.0
7.0
2.8
5.4
6.9
0.2
11.2
5.1
2.5
11.3
5.1
16.9
4.5
2.0
17.0
4.6
16.6
6.7
9.7
4.8
3.1
15.3
6.2
5.3
13.2
3.5
8.4
3.2
10.6
3.2
4.7
-0.1
-8.1
-0.2
0.2
4.8
4.0
9.1
6.8
40.3
2.7
4.2
8.4
21.7
5.4
16.4
5.4
9.1
...
8.8
7.6
2.1
5.6
6.6
1.6
7.7
5.2
2.9
10.0
7.1
14.5
2.9
2.8
16.4
5.5
...
6.1
14.5
3.3
3.7
22.8
6.6
5.3
11.3
1.9
9.1
4.9
15.0
2.8
4.1
0.3
-6.0
0.6
1.7
3.1
5.2
8.5
6.2
38.3
1.3
4.3
8.6
20.2
3.5
19.1
6.9
10.7
...
7.5
9.0
4.2
5.7
6.0
0.4
7.2
6.5
2.8
10.4
7.9
12.5
2.6
4.8
17.1
6.0
...
7.0
18.9
2.4
4.6
28.8
6.4
9.0
11.3
6.5
8.3
3.3
22.7
2.5
2.5
5.8
-3.7
3.2
-1.2
1.6
7.8
8.9
6.0
33.4
3.1
4.0
8.6
17.8
2.3
17.1
7.3
9.2
...
5.3
10.8
5.4
5.7
4.2
0.5
3.6
7.0
-0.3
12.0
8.0
11.0
2.1
6.1
15.6
6.1
...
9.0
19.5
2.1
5.4
24.2
6.3
9.5
10.5
6.7
7.5
3.8
20.9
3.2
1.5
4.7
6.6
4.0
0.2
-1.4
8.0
8.1
6.0
25.4
2.5
4.0
9.3
15.5
1.9
11.8
6.4
7.2
...
6.9
16.6
7.3
5.7
3.8
1.4
2.4
6.0
1.0
12.8
7.0
9.2
1.0
8.0
12.9
5.8
...
9.0
18.1
2.4
5.6
18.9
6.5
8.0
9.9
6.5
7.1
4.7
15.9
2.9
2.3
4.6
20.9
19.1
8.0
2.0
7.8
6.4
...
20.3
2.7
4.3
9.5
14.7
2.1
6.3
5.6
4.5
...
6.7
25.2
5.6
4.9
3.9
1.3
2.0
6.2
0.5
12.0
5.7
11.4
0.9
7.8
11.8
5.1
...
9.4
14.6
2.6
5.7
10.6
6.4
9.1
9.5
7.4
7.3
3.4
13.2
3.2
3.9
...
17.6
23.5
8.7
3.1
7.9
5.2
...
...
2.3
...
9.2
13.1
2.1
3.5
5.2
6.6
...
6.6
32.8
3.5
...
3.5
2.0
2.1
7.0
0.6
12.0
4.6
11.0
1.7
6.5
11.4
5.6
...
10.1
12.3
3.5
5.4
4.9
...
6.6
9.0
2.5
7.5
2.5
7.6
3.9
3.4
...
...
19.4
7.1
3.4
...
7.4
...
...
1.4
...
9.7
...
...
4.1
4.9
...
...
5.6
...
-0.2
...
3.3
2.3
...
6.4
1.5
9.2
5.3
10.4
0.2
6.4
11.7
5.7
...
...
10.4
3.2
6.1
4.2
...
16
100
-1,110
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-6,000
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
50
2009

300
275
35
250
30
225
25
200
20
175
15
75
2.5 - AFRICA: Financial indicators
-5
2010
2,926
1,963
-3
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
Financial Issues ...?
50
2009
3,889
100
4,851
10
125
5,814
15
150
6,777
12
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
1,000
Currency depreciation against the US dollar
Graph 23. Total reserves (billions of current US$)
4 000
3 750
3 500
3 250
3 000
2 750
2 500
2 250
4 000
1 750
3 500
1 500
3 250
2 750
2 500
2 250
2 000
15,00
1 750
1 500
11,25
12
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,75
11,25
7,50
3,75
035
30
25
20
2012
2013
25 5
87,498
73,748
59,999
46,249
101,248
32,499
87,498
18,750
73,748
5,000
2011
2010
2009
59,999
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
46,249
32,499
18,750
5,000
300
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
250
200
Graph 25. Stock market indexes (100=2005)
300
150
250
100
200
50
2009
150
2010
2011
2013
2012
100
6,777
50
5,814
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
4,851
15 6
6,777
12 3
5,814
90
4,851
-5
2009
10
2013
2012
3,889
2,926
20 0
15
2011
101,248
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
8,669 the second half of 2012 has tempeThe rally in South Africa's equity market during
3,779
red somewhat since the start of 2013. The strong
performance displayed by the domestic share market in 2012 continued, helped
-1,11015 by higher international equity prices,
2013 and the depreciation
2012
2011
2010 business
2009
improving
sentiment,
in the exchange value of the
-6,000
12
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
rand. The FTSE/JSE All-Share Price Index increased
by around
2.0%
in March
2013
9
from December 2012 and by 18.8% compared to 12 months previously.
3010
2010
Graph 24. Exchange rates : Kenya & South Africa (national

currency per US $)
13,558
-6,000
3515
150
2009
13,558
2011
200
100
Stock markets in West Africa posted good performances in the first quarter of 2013.
8,669
28,227
The BRVM index climbed by 18.2% between
December 2012 and March 2013, as
23,338
the outlook for the subregion strengthened.3,779
At the same time, Botswana, Kenya,
18,448
-1,110
Mauritius and Nigeria, all recorded a double-digit
uptick in stock markets.
2010
250
20
In recent years, developments in many Sub-Saharan Africa economies have caught

6
the attention of international investors looking for higher returns in emerging mar3
kets. Parallel with the uptrend in global stock
markets since mid-2012, African equity
indexes overall have registered robust performances,
despite some divergences
28,227
0
2013
2012
2011
2009
among2010subregions.
North
Africa
is one exception,
where
environment
2013 is
2012
2011
2010 the current
2009
23,338
weighing heavily on equity markets and dampening
investor confidence.
18,448
2009
30
10
Sub-Saharan stock markets are booming
7,50
15,00
300
12
The weakening of the South African rand also
continued in line with the downgrading
of South Africas sovereign credit rating and
the widening of the current account de9
ficit. In Kenya, between February and March, the Kenyan shilling registered a 1.9%
6
gain against the US dollar.
15
2009
3 000
350
40
As prospects for global growth remained modest and weighed by uncertainties at the
turn of 20122013, almost major African currencies depreciated against the US dollar. In Egypt, the recent move to a more flexible exchange rate aimed to reduce the
misalignment in the exchange rate. This led to a sharp devaluation of the Egyptian
pound against the US dollar in March 2013, with a 9.8% loss compared to December 2012.
15
2 000
3 750
400
50
15
Consistent with slowing global activity and decelerating
world trade, gross foreign reserves moderated in general across the continent
during 2012. By contrast, in the
12
aftermath of Arab Spring and with continuing political uncertainties, international re9
serves held in US dollars declined sharply in
Tunisia and Egypt, leading to more inend of March 2013, Egypts foreign
tense pressures on external stability. At the
6
reserves reached new critical levels of US$ 13.4 billion, as net international reserves
3
officially tallied, posting a 11.2% drop compared
to the same period of previous year.
The
nation's
reserves
have
fallen
sharply
from
US$36
billion since the popular upri0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
sing in 2011.
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,963
-3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,889
1,000
2,926
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,963
-3
-5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,000
400
15
50
12
40
15 9
5030
12 6
4020
9 3
3010
250
20
200
350
300
400
250
350
200
300
150
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
50
150
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
50
2009
15
101,248
87,498
12
73,748
18 | Statistics Department | First9Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013
59,999
46,249
32,499
3
2011
2010
2013
2012
18,750
5,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Africaininthe
theWorld
WorldEconomy
Economy
Africa

101,248
Table
73,748
3,779
Algeria
Algeria
Botswana
2013
2012
5,000
Botswana
Mauritius
Mauritius
Morocco
300
Morocco
Nigeria
250Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
200 Uganda
Uganda
WAEMU
012
2011
2010
Ethiopian Birr
2010
2013
2009
2012
16.90
1.504
1.504
28.71
28.71
8.090
8.090
153.90
153.90
4,348.6
4,348.6
2,522.7
Cedi-Ghana
15
Mauritius Rupee
12
Dirham-Morocco
9
Naira-Nigeria
Leone
3
Ugandan shilling
2,522.7
471.9
471.9
CFA Franc0
150
WAEMU
77.61
77.61
7.620
7.620
2012
2011
Q.1 2013 /
Q4 2012
2013
2012
January
January
78.26
78.26
7.938
7.938
2013
17.79
18.31
1.852
1.903
1.852
1.903
30.12
30.60
30.12
30.60
8.631
8.397
8.631
8.397
158.80
156.86
158.80
156.86
4,344.7 4,329.9
4,344.7
4,329.9
2,504.5 2,683.5
2,504.5
510.4 2,683.5
493.4
510.4
493.4
150
February
February
78.14
100
78.14
8.004
8.00450
March
March
79.16
79.16
8.215
8.215
2009
18.39
18.46
1.907
1.928
1.907
1.928
30.62 6,777
31.06
30.62
31.06
8.366
8.576
8.366 5,814 8.576
157.48
158.39
157.48 4,851 158.39
4,323.7
4,319.0
4,323.7
4,319.0
2,655.43,889 2,634.0
2,655.4
491.4 2,926 2,634.0
506.4
491.4
1,963
4.8
4.8
10.2
10.2
2011
1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.4
-1.4
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.2
1.2
-1.7
-1.7
506.4
Mar.2013/
Mar.2012
% change
-0.8
-0.8
2.1
2.1
2010
Q.1 2013 /
Q1 2012
2012
5.7
11.8
11.8
5.4
5.4
-0.6
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
10.4
10.4
-0.7
6.6
6.6
13.4
13.4
2013
5.6
10.7
10.7
6.9
6.9
1.6
1.6
0.5
0.5
-0.8
-0.8
6.1
6.1
2.0
-0.7
2.0
-3
100
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2012
2013
1,000
2007
2006
2008
2010
2009
50
2013
12
12
-6,000
Pula-Botswana
Ethiopia
Ghana
Ghana
2011
72.94
72.94
6.838
6.838
Algerian -1,110
Dinar
2009
2010
200
2011
Currency
8,669
18,750
2011
(national currency per U.S$, period average)
13,558
Country
Country
32,499
2013
250
18,448
: Exchange rates for
selected countries
10
46,249
2010
2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators
23,338
87,498
59,999
Financial Issues ...

?
300
28,227
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Graph 26. Exchange rates : Tunisia & Egypt (national currency per US $)
6,777
Graph 26. Graph 27. Stock market indexes (100=2005)

400
50
350
5,814
40
300
4,851
30
250
20
200
3,889
2,926
150
10
1,963
2010
2013
2011
1,000
2012
100
0
2013
2006
2007
2008
2010
2010
2009
2009
2012
2011
50
2013
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
400
Table
11
350
300
: Stock market indexes for selected countries
Country
(end of period quotes, %)
2011
2012
6,970.9
7,510.2
EGX 30 Index
3,622.4
6,970.9
5,462.4
7,510.2
Nairobi All Share
3,205.0
3,622.4
4,133.0
5,462.4
Index
Mar.2013/
Dec.2012
2013
250
Country
200
Botswana
150
Egypt
Botswana
January
2013
50
2009
Mauritius
Kenya
Morocco
Mauritius
Namibia
Morocco
South Africa
Namibia
Tanzania
South Africa
Tunisia
Tanzania
2011
2010 Semdex
Madex Free Float Index

Overall Index
FTSE/JSE All Share
All Share Index
Tunindex
Tunisia
% change
March
8,400.0
March
11.8
5.7
5,576.0
7,799.1
5,546.4
7,946.0
5,098.8
8,400.0
-6.7
11.8
-8.1
5.7
1.6
19.0
4,416.6
5,576.0
4,513.6
5,546.4
4,830.4
5,098.8
16.9
-6.7
7.0
-8.1
43.5
1.6
2013
1,888.4
1,732.1
1,800.7
1,866.3
3,205.0
4,133.0
4,416.6
4,513.6
9,011.6
7,614.0
7,329.3
7,273.5
1,888.4
1,732.1
1,800.7
1,866.3
838.2
983.8
991.2
974.2
9,011.6
7,614.0
7,329.3
7,273.5
31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6
838.2
983.8
991.2
974.2
1,303.2
1,485.6
1,488.1
1,505.8
31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6
4,722.3
4,579.9
4,746.5
4,638.8
1,303.2
1,485.6
1,488.1
1,505.8
1,925.5
4,830.4
7,364.1
1,925.5
966.2
7,364.1
39,860.8
966.2
1,521.5
39,860.8
4,725.7
1,521.5
11.2
16.9
-3.3
11.2
-1.8
-3.3
1.6
-1.8
2.4
1.6
3.2
2.4
3.2
7.0
1.2
3.2
-0.8
1.2
0.4
-0.8
1.0
0.4
1.9
1.0
-4.8
43.5
-17.8
-4.8
9.0
-17.8
18.8
9.0
14.0
18.8
-2.0
14.0
4,725.7
3.2
1.9
-2.0
100
Kenya
Egypt
February
Mar.2013/
Mar.2012
7,946.0
Gaborone Index
7,799.1
Mar.2013/
Feb.2013
January
February
2012
4,722.3
4,579.9
4,746.5
4,638.8
19.0
18
18

Financial Issues ...?

Table 12
: Exchange rates
(national currency per US$)
Period average
2011
Q.2
Country
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Rep.
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Congo, Republic of
Cte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
So Tom & Prncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
71.87
93.28
455.8
6.524
455.8
1239.3
455.8
76.62
455.8
455.8
341.8
923.2
455.8
455.7
177.7
5.951
455.8
15.38
16.887
455.8
28.00
1.510
6718.8
455.8
86.1
6.793
72.32
1.209
1961.4
150.8
455.8
274.4
27.95
7.870
30.13
6.793
455.8
155.4
600.2
17022.8
455.76
12.24
4344.5
6.793
2.361
6.793
1530.1
455.8
1.373
2405.2
4.756
322.4
Q.3
73.09
93.61
464.9
6.770
464.9
1254.7
464.9
78.15
464.9
464.9
348.7
921.8
464.9
464.8
177.7
5.961
464.9
15.38
17.083
464.9
28.43
1.532
6841.0
464.9
93.2
7.145
72.48
1.214
1983.4
159.3
464.9
280.0
28.29
8.001
27.32
7.145
464.9
154.3
600.1
17364.6
464.92
12.26
4385.5
7.145
2.361
7.145
1609.3
464.9
1.390
2719.1
4.890
322.4
2012
Q.4
74.37
94.90
486.7
7.413
486.7
1313.3
486.7
81.82
486.7
486.7
365.1
910.3
486.7
487.0
177.7
5.991
486.7
15.38
17.235
486.7
28.93
1.625
6997.2
486.7
93.7
8.099
71.94
1.237
2123.7
165.3
486.7
288.2
29.14
8.310
26.81
8.099
486.7
160.3
602.1
18174.5
486.74
12.91
4404.0
8.099
2.361
8.099
1649.0
486.7
1.451
2609.1
5.032
322.4
Q.1
74.95
95.05
500.4
7.307
500.4
1392.5
500.4
84.12
500.4
500.4
375.3
919.7
500.4
500.4
177.7
6.035
500.4
15.38
17.399
500.4
30.32
1.711
7162.8
500.4
84.1
7.757
73.34
1.253
2185.8
165.9
500.4
292.2
29.19
8.493
27.29
7.757
500.4
159.2
605.4
18702.6
500.41
13.95
4362.7
7.757
2.361
7.757
1589.1
500.4
1.508
2406.9
5.209
322.4
Q.2
75.59
95.29
511.7
7.586
511.7
1404.9
511.7
86.01
511.7
511.7
383.7
922.3
511.7
511.5
177.7
6.043
511.7
15.38
17.633
511.7
30.26
1.871
7096.6
511.7
84.1
8.126
74.81
1.263
2123.6
225.3
511.7
293.3
29.67
8.645
27.80
8.126
511.7
159.4
608.5
19094.9
511.65
14.23
4344.6
8.126
2.462
8.126
1584.7
511.7
1.568
2489.9
5.234
322.4
2013
Q.3
80.71
95.42
524.4
7.702
524.4
1464.1
524.4
88.15
524.4
524.4
393.3
919.1
524.4
524.2
177.7
6.080
524.4
15.38
17.957
524.4
32.15
1.936
7175.9
524.4
84.3
8.260
73.64
1.272
2248.7
283.0
524.4
300.5
30.70
8.819
28.42
8.260
524.4
159.3
614.8
19583.2
524.40
13.57
4337.1
8.260
3.887
8.260
1579.4
524.4
1.602
2495.1
4.947
322.4
Q.4
79.19
95.63
505.6
7.884
505.6
1505.3
505.6
85.00
505.6
505.6
379.2
915.9
505.6
505.6
177.7
6.124
505.6
15.38
18.165
505.6
32.04
1.890
7002.4
505.6
85.6
8.690
72.27
1.259
2238.3
322.9
505.6
299.2
30.90
8.566
29.58
8.690
505.6
157.3
628.3
18893.0
505.65
13.10
4334.5
8.690
3.895
8.690
1578.8
505.6
1.571
2626.3
5.200
322.4
Q.1
78.52
96.02
496.9
8.052
496.9
1592.6
496.9
83.53
496.9
496.9
372.7
917.1
496.9
497.1
177.7
6.688
496.9
15.38
18.387
496.9
33.70
1.913
7008.8
496.9
86.7
8.954
...
...
2223.2
366.7
496.9
296.6
30.76
8.447
30.23
8.954
496.9
157.6
633.2
18548.8
496.88
12.51
4324.2
8.954
3.908
8.954
1589.8
496.9
1.566
2657.6
5.339
322.4

Financial Issues ...

?
Table 13
: International reserves
(Billions of US$)
as at end of period
2011
2012
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Cte d'Ivoire
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
169.9
20.48
1.278
8.374
1.077
0.345
3.748
0.374
0.189
0.825
0.166
1.397
5.190
3.538
0.257
27.68
2.234
0.116
1.925
0.203
4.672
0.118
0.159
4.172
0.476
107.4
1.209
0.199
1.373
0.311
2.575
22.84
2.126
1.536
0.723
35.88
0.707
0.045
2.206
0.275
0.425
43.51
2.929
0.677
3.643
0.894
9.199
2.434
2.106
176.2
24.06
1.187
8.578
1.026
0.342
3.488
0.317
0.199
0.882
0.151
1.402
5.716
4.049
0.249
23.51
3.630
0.117
2.503
0.221
4.928
0.117
0.250
4.173
0.499
107.2
1.254
0.227
1.454
0.411
2.698
22.13
2.352
1.821
0.722
34.57
0.748
0.048
2.552
0.296
0.416
43.98
2.415
0.639
3.498
0.865
7.712
2.273
2.588
176.6
25.57
1.077
8.301
0.923
0.303
3.239
0.309
0.165
0.900
0.146
1.260
5.859
4.204
0.224
20.96
2.557
0.116
2.282
0.195
4.757
0.112
0.220
4.007
0.493
104.1
1.236
0.270
1.367
0.420
2.559
20.57
2.371
1.432
0.618
34.36
0.825
0.055
2.454
0.279
0.420
43.21
0.667
0.573
3.471
0.759
7.998
2.479
2.556
182.8
26.48
0.887
8.082
0.957
0.294
3.199
0.339
0.155
0.951
0.155
1.268
5.641
4.316
0.244
14.92
3.054
0.115
2.157
0.223
5.483
0.103
0.220
4.264
0.513
104.8
1.279
0.197
1.379
0.485
2.583
19.53
2.469
1.787
0.673
35.21
1.050
0.051
1.946
0.290
0.439
42.60
0.193
0.601
3.726
0.774
7.454
2.617
2.324
187.1
27.39
1.026
8.066
0.726
0.289
3.095
0.344
0.169
0.866
0.150
1.351
5.565
4.270
0.253
11.82
4.079
...
2.058
0.217
4.741
0.104
0.182
4.697
0.520
110.0
1.295
0.148
1.289
0.509
2.590
18.42
2.315
1.604
0.712
37.79
0.900
0.053
2.090
0.304
0.453
43.98
0.194
0.580
3.534
0.658
7.084
2.741
2.319
187.0
30.73
0.912
7.831
0.815
0.273
3.059
0.358
0.146
0.872
0.157
1.406
5.657
3.890
0.258
12.15
3.066
...
2.198
0.233
4.175
...
0.211
5.309
0.495
110.5
1.176
0.093
1.113
0.569
2.601
15.98
2.473
1.734
0.796
37.95
0.860
0.036
1.856
0.305
0.442
42.92
0.190
0.614
3.788
0.548
6.359
2.859
2.440
188.9
30.43
0.800
7.794
0.908
0.283
3.033
0.377
0.166
0.952
0.172
1.508
5.848
3.695
0.253
11.66
4.287
...
2.295
0.223
4.193
...
0.183
5.495
0.481
115.438
1.150
0.186
1.181
0.821
2.712
15.63
2.867
1.675
0.897
43.224
...
0.041
1.994
0.311
0.445
43.85
0.193
0.670
4.045
0.534
6.494
3.098
3.319
Zimbabwe
0.699
0.791
0.686
0.659
0.624
0.573
0.567
Country
Q.3
Q.4
191.3
30.98
0.713
7.628
1.025
0.307
3.381
0.376
0.158
1.156
...
1.633
5.550
3.928
0.249
11.63
4.397
...
2.352
0.236
5.368
...
0.165
5.711
0.500
...
1.191
0.223
1.341
0.949
2.837
16.36
2.770
1.746
1.015
46.405
...
0.052
2.082
0.319
0.478
44.00
0.193
0.741
4.053
0.442
8.357
3.169
3.042
0.574
* provisional
? Data sources and descriptions
Graph
Cover page
Description and technical observations

Business confidence in USA, Eurozone and Japan / Africa's exports by destination (in %)
Data Sources
International databases / WTO
Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Advanced Economies (Quarterly data seasonally adjusted (sa), growth rate
compared to the previous quarter)
OECD
Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Emerging Economies (Quarterly data, growth rate compared to the same
quarter of the previous year)
OECD
Harmonized Unemployment Rate in United States and Euro zone

(monthly data, % of active population)
OECD
Consumer Prices all Items for Advanced Economies (monthly data, percentage change on the same period of the
previous year)
OECD
Exchange rates in US$ for the Euro, the Yen and the Yuan
Monthly average
OECD
Share price for US, Japan, Europe and Shangai
Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the
same quarter of the previous year)
Manufacturing Production for selected African countries (monthly data sa, % change compared to the same month
of the previous year)
North Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to
the same quarter of the previous year)
AfDB Statistics Department,

Regional Member Countries and
IMF
10
Crude Oil Production for African member countries of OPEC (monthly data; 1 000 barrel / day)
AfDB Statistics Department and

OPEC
11
Manufacturing Production for Senegal and Cte d'Ivoire (quarterly data sa, % change compared to the same
quarter of the previous year)
12 - 13 -14
Focus
World volume imports of goods / Exports and imports values in current US dollar for selected African countries
(quarterly data, current values, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)
Major economic statistics
Bloomberg
IMF
Regional Member Countries
Regional Member Countries
OECD / WTO
Bank of Ghana / Ghana Statistical
Services
15
Commodity prices
(monthly indexes, 100=2005)
IMF, IFS Database
16
Oil prices (WTI and Brent)

(US$ per barrel)
IMF, IFS Database
17
Cocoa beans monthly prices

(US$ per metric tonne)
IMF, IFS Database
18 -20
Inflation on consumer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter
of the previous year)

IMF
21
Inflation on manufacturing producer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the
same quarter of the previous year)

IMF
22
South Africa : Money aggregate M3 and claims on private sector (monthly sa data, annual growth in %)
23
Gross foreign reserves South Africa and Egypt (billions of US$)
24 & 26
Exchange rates (national currency per US$, monthly average rates)
25 & 27
Stock market indexes for selected African countries (end of period quotes, 100=2005)
SARB
World Bank and national sources

AfDB Statistics Department, Central
Banks and IMF
National Stock Exchanges
? Data sources and descriptions
Table
Data Sources
Page
OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China and Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
OECD, EUROSTAT
Bloomberg OECD
AfDB Statistics Department and national statistical agencies
WTO
11
World Bank and ational sources
11
World Bank
13
National sources, World Bank and IMF
15
National Statistics sources and IMF
16
10
World Bank and National sources
18
11
National Statistics sources and international databases
18
12
World Bank
19
13
World Bank
20

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Africa & Global Economic Trends

Quarterly Statistical Review

Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013

Economic growth &

2 | Africa in the World Economy

3 | Data sources and descriptions

fter a weak ending to the year 2012,

Continuing shocks emanating from the eurozone,

the global economy picked up during

including the aftermath of Cypruss recent sove-

the first months of 2013, driven by

reign debt crisis, have acted as a rein on the glo-

resilience in emerging economies. The outlook

bal recovery. World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012

for the first half of 2013 is for a return to slow but

was down sharply compared to the 5.2% recor-

steady growth in the United States and Canada,

ded in 2011. Despite this, transmission to African

and an improving outlook in Japan. In Europe a

economies has been tempered by more intensive

meaningful recovery is likely to take longer.

economies remains much more robust than that

The importance of countries such as China, Bra-

of advanced countries, although with significant

zil, and India as trading partners, export destina-

variations across regions. Business confidence

tions, and sources of investment in Africa is

has generally improved since the start of the

year, supported by improvements in equity

markets in particular. In the eurozone however,

confidence weakened in March and remains well

below 50, which is the borderline between

expansion and contraction.

Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)

Africa : Merchandise exports by destination

2 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013

Economic Growth ...

Gradual recovery in global economy

Graph 1. Advanced economies / GDP growth (Quarterly

Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)

Graph 2. Emerging economies / GDP growth (Quarterly

Lagging recovery in the eurozone

Fiscal stimulus measures in Japan

Graph 3. Harmonized unemployment rate (% of active

In addition to declining manufacturing1,2500000000000074

Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)

Statistics13 Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 3

Inflation and financial developments ...?

1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments-6

Inflation generally subdued

4. Inflation / Consumer prices (monthly data, %

The US dollar continued appreciating6 against

Graph 6. Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100)

5. Exchange rates (US$ per national currency)

Buoyant financial markets

4 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013

Financial Indicators ...

Table 1 : Real GDP Growth

(seasonally adjusted data)

% change on previous year

% change on previous quarter

% change on previous year

% change on same quarter of previous year

% change on previous year