ASlA'5 ECONOMIC RESURGENCE IS SET TO CONTINUE

income per person U55

Income per person USS . 20,000
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we
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Note: The bubble area reflects the size of GDP for Asia's economies, adjusted for purchasing
power parity in
2011 prices (Maddison 2010, IMF 2012c, The Conference Board 2012 and Treasury projections).
'Chart 1: Asias economic resurgence is set to continue'sourced from the Australia in the Asian
Century White Paper

from escalating strategic competition

might emerge quite unpredictably.

The Prime Minister's recent

lecture is more upbeat noting that

we are geographically closer than our
competitors to the fastest growing
and most economically dynamic
region ofthe world" and concentrating on the opportunities to service
the massive new Asian middle class.
She explained her review would
ask and answer

questions, however, she also stressed

that the extraordinary Asian growth

will change the social and economic,

strategic and environmental orderof
our world".

What might an
Asian Century entail?
The Asian Centurywill mean more
than a mere rebalancing of power

between the United States and China:

the China-Japan contest could turn
out to be more important in shaping

Asias strategic future, and there is

the Chinalndia relationship as well.
The stronger Indonesia, which
we are already beginning to see, will

also want greater influence in the

wider Asian region, and not merely

Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN).

Exactlyhowregionalarchitecture
develops will depend on the unfold-

ing of these interstate dynamics,

but we can be fairly certain that

an Asian Century will not mean

the strengthening of Asia-Pacic
institutions.
AsiaPacific Economic Coop-

eration (APEC) lost prestige in the

Australia's Engagement with Asia

comfortable fate Australians will

also need to be prudent in handling
our neighbours.
Abusing Malaysia, for instance,
does not help to promote the type
of regional cooperation we need to

handle refugee flows.

1970

1913

If we are not to be a lonely

country and this would be an un-

1997 Asian economic crisis, and the

following years saw the growth of the
Asiaexclusive ASEAN + 3 process,

which brings together the ten ASEAN

countries with China, Japan and
South Korea.
The East Asia Summit (EAS),

which commenced in 2005, is a

further Asian initiative - and
Australias Coalition government
deserves credit for taking Australia
into this meeting (at a time when

the United States was not a member)

instead of merely defending APECs
credentials.

What we do not know today is

whether United States membership
(beginning this year) will lift the
importance of the EAS or lead to an
even greater role for the all-Asian
ASEAN + 3.

Assuming that even within the

EAS the Asian Century will entail
a reduced United States influence,
Australian diplomacy will need to

build coalitions with one group or

another of Asian states.

How we engage
The phrase engaging with Asia"

used so often in the past, especially

by those concerned that Australian

governments were too narrowly

The Asian Century invokes more

than a shift in strategic and economic power. Will English remain
the dominant language ofinter-state
conversation? Will the democracy
and human rights discourse lose
legitimacy when not endorsed by
United States dominance?
International relations analysts
have already begun to wonder
whether the regional order in Asia

could beincreasinglyshaped byolder,

Asian hierarchical models rather
traditional national sovereignty.
Business culture is another area
that may demand adjustment

not, as some fear, by a retreat into

amorality but perhaps by a greater

willingness to take account ofAsian

viewpoints.

If we are to seek more investment

opportunities in Asia - and so far

Australians have focused on trade,

which is less demanding there will
be a need for sociological as well as
economic knowledge.

Change without change

The Asian Century does not call

for a reinvention of the Australian

community we would be wrong to
fear an assault on our national values
and institutions.

But it is necessary to assess our

national skill-set and our mental
preparation. What we have now is
an Australian community in which
almost no one learns an Asian language, and the study ofAsian societies
and histories is virtually ignored in

our schools. This cannot be a good

focused on the United States is now

redundant. The issue is where and

basis for the task ahead.

how we engage more closely.

Anthony Milner is Basham Professor of Asian History, School of

Culture, History and Language at the
Australian National University.

This will be a challenge for government but also for an Australian

community which still tends not to

think beyond the United States alliance when contemplatingAust:ralias

international positioning.

2011 Anthony Milner. Posted 10 October 201 1.

The Conversation | hnp://theconversationedu.au

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