Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Contents
Editors Note
Notes on Contributors
v
vii
1.
2.
21
3.
31
4.
5.
6.
81
iii
BINOD SHAKYA
7.
91
Editors Note
This issue of the Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies is a reflection of the wide spectrum of disaster
management research and practices going on in the South Asian region. The contributors of the research
documents belong to various levels of disaster management initiatives and national organisations, research and academic institutions and research students in the field of disaster management from and
outside SAARC member states.
In the past decades, Geographical Information System (GIS) has emerged as a vital tool for collecting,
integrating, and finally assessing the datasets related to disasters. The first paper of this volume by Rao
et al. is based on application of GIS for impact assessment of Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) on the coastal
regions of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh in India. It uses various parameters like population,
resources, distance from the coast, landfall location of cyclones, cyclone track, slope of the ground and
storm surges and the study analysed 100 years data from Andhra Pradesh.
The glacial lakes nestled in the snow clad Himalayas are growing in size due to melting of glaciers as
a direct consequence of global warming. The communities residing near these lakes are exposed to severe
danger due to silent specter of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). The paper of Shakya proposes a statistical model based on lake parameters taking Lower Barun, Imja, Thulagi, and Tsho Rolpa glacial lakes
for which, estimates of GLOF risk in the downstream parts are made by the author.
The Indian Railways has one of the biggest global railway networks, and in spite of having a comprehensive disaster anticipatory mechanism, faces major accidents. Macwans paper addresses this vital issue,
and provides an overview of the strength and shortcomings of Indian Railways in handling disasters,
preparedness at managerial level, and Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) with reference to Ahmedabad
city in Gujarat. It also discusses the measures undertaken by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation in
addressing disaster related issues, constraints, etc. In his paper, the author advocates the need of including the related points of Disaster Management Act 2005 of India in the Disaster Management Plan of
Ahmedabad city for effective disaster mitigation practices.
Large number of foreshocks prior to the main shock of an earthquake makes the analysis of earthquake catalogues a difficult task. Dutta et al. attempt a machine learning approach to extract attribute
value pairs from the earthquake catalogue, which enables study of earthquake occurrences on proper
compilation of earthquake data before and after the mainstream earthquake. The results outlined in the
research paper has estimated accuracy of the refined catalogue of 98. 81 per cent for correctly classified
foreshocks.
There has been high degree of interest in construction of underground dams for sustainable surface
water management as these have certain advantages over the surface dams. However, there have been
some concerns regarding requirements of high-end technologies, involvement of heavy machinery and
steep construction costs in their construction. The paper of Kobayashi and Jatiya proposes an answer to
these concerns through Transverse Excavating and Infilling Method (TEIM) as a low cost and widely applicable construction method that can be applied for constructing deep underground dams.
In many parts of South Asia, the increasing atmospheric dryness conditions are verging on a state
of irreversible condition leading to potential desertification and degradation of already strained land resources. Al-Amin et al. in their paper have proposed a GIS based dryness index map for the northwestern
part of Bangladesh, commonly known as the Barind tract. The paper uses Aridity Index (AI) as a numerical
indicator for dryness, and the maps are very useful for analyzing the trend of precipitation in the selected
study area.
One of the emerging prerequisites for mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into development process is quantification of vulnerabilities of a region to natural disasters. The paper of this issue by
Shukla attempts to quantify vulnerability indicators up to district level for the western state of Gujarat. It
also discusses a regional model for assessing the pattern of vulnerability within the state, and identifying
the drivers of vulnerability in the state for effective identification of the vulnerable district and prioritisation of interventions in planning process.
This issue of the Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies exemplifies the emerging trend of highly informative research, and policy analysis practices that is a reflection of the involvement of policy planners,
academicians, researchers, scientists of the region in the larger interest of making the South Asian region
disaster resilient, and shaping up a region with high degree of DRR standards. The volume is placed before
the disaster management stakeholders at various levels in the region for inviting critical appraisal of the
articles featured herein, which will undoubtedly contribute to the improvement of the journal.
O.P.Mishra
Mriganka Ghatak
Notes on Contributors
l Binod Shakya, Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Email:
drbinod@lifelinegroup.info
l B.S. Prakasa Rao, Department of Geo-Engineering, College of Engineering, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003. Email: bosukonda@gmail.com
l G. Srinivas, National Remote Sensing Center, Balanagar, Hyderabad-500625. Email: srinivasrao_g@nrsc.gov.in
l J.G. Macwan, Doctoral student (Disaster Management),
Email: jmacwan45@yahoo.com
l Kajal Mukherjee, Geophysicist,Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India.
l K. Mrutyunjaya Reddy, Andhra Pradesh State Remote Sensing Applications Centre, Hyderabad-500038.
Email: kmruthyu@yahoo.com
l Mrinal Kanti Naskar, Electronics and Communication Dept., Jadavpur University, Kolkata,India.
l Md. Monsurul Huda, Junior Engineer, Institute of Water Modeling, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Email: hudamonsur@gmail.com
l M. Satyakumar, Indian Meteorological Department, Hyderabad - 500016. Email: msatyak@yahoo.com
l N. Bhaskar Rao, Department of Geo-Engineering, College of Engineering, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003. Email: bhaskar.infotech@gmail.com
l N. Srinivas, Department of Geo-Engineering, College of Engineering, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam-530003. Email: srinu_neeli@yahoo.co.in
l Om Prakash Mishra, Geological Disaster Division, SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC),
New Delhi, India
vii
l Pushan Kumar Dutta, Advanced Digital Embedded System Lab, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
l Shital Hardik Shukla, Assistant Professor, Sardar Patel Institute of Economic and Social Research,
Opp. Udagam School, Drive In Road, ThaltejTekra, Ahmedabad-380054, Gujarat, India.
l Shams Al-Amin, Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Ahsanullah University of Science and
Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Email: iamtanim@gmail.com
l Umme Salma Rima, Junior Engineer, Institute of Water Modeling, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Email: rimace045_03@yahoo. com
l Yoshito Kobayashi, Searcher, Motive Machinery Group, Center of Search Affairs,Industrial Property
Cooperation Center Fukagawa-gatheria-west 3, Kiba 1-2-15, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-0042, Japan. Email:
kobayashi-yoshito@kamakuranet.ne.jp
Abstract
Assessment and mitigation of flood hazard is an important component of sustainable development
in coastal areas which are rich in various resources. About 25 per cent of Indias population lives
within 50 km of the coastline. The east coast of India is more prone to cyclones arising in Bay of
Bengal as about 80 per cent of total cyclones, generated in the east coast of India, strike here. Being
one of the coastal states, Andhra Pradesh (AP) has a long coastline stretching about 1,030km out
of 7,500 km of total coastline of India. The severe cyclonic storms during 1831-1970, 20 of them
were landfall on the AP coast and accounted for 12,000 deaths. The damages and economic
losses due to cyclones and floods are relatively higher in AP, which was estimated at Rs.18,469
core in various spheres. Despite the frequent occurrence of these cyclones, adequate measures to be
taken to mitigate their impact need adequate study. Remote Sensing (RS) technology has proved
its capability in providing vital information in a disaster situation; it could be used in disaster
analysis, hazard zonation, and prior risk assessment. The study adopts RS andGIS (Geographic
Information System) to assess the impact of severe cyclonic storms that landfall on the coastal
regions of AP. Hence, an attempt is made to study each taluk along the coast and100 km inland
(86 taluks) for assessment of vulnerability keeping in view the population, resources, distance
from the coast, location of land falling of cyclone and its track, ground slope, and storm surge.
The landfall of severe cyclones over 100 years of data is considered in the study. Vulnerability of
the coastal taluks is arrived by assigning weight factors to each taluk based on various thematic
informations depending upon their capability in the mitigation of storm and economic value. 44
per cent of the study area is categorised as high and very high level of vulnerability, and this area
Introduction
Tropical cyclones are very destructive natural hazards with an average wind velocity of 17
m/s. The east coast of India is more prone to cyclones arising in Bay of Bengal as about
80 per cent of cyclones generated in the sea could landfall on the east coast. Vulnerability
to disaster can be defined as a gap in community coping capacity, or inherent protection,
against the disaster characteristics. Study of historical data on floods and cyclones and
its integration in GIS will throw light on the vulnerability of coastal area. The number of
peer-reviewed papers in the field of science, impacts and vulnerability along the Indian
coasts has been low. Considering the magnitude of these problems and also the longterm interests, research on impacts and vulnerability to the coasts and the necessary
adaptation measures is needed (Unnikrishnan 2011:1273). There are numerous reasons
why we must live and work in regions subject to cyclones. Hence, proper measures should
be adopted to reduce the impact of cyclones. Vulnerability assessment is essentially a
systematic integration of factorstopography, slope, morphological features, engineering
characteristics of structures, and socioeconomic aspects and infrastructure facilities.
Universities need to take up local issues on impacts and adaptation. GIS is capable of
assembling, storing, manipulating, and displaying geographically referenced information
(Burrough 1986).
Coastal vulnerability is studied by Jayanti (1998:115) as a function of cyclone
frequency, coastal topography, bathometry, and population density.Vulnerability was
measured and a disaster risk index for the Indian coast was derived at. The Multi Purpose
Cyclone Shelter Project (MCSP) in Bangladesh (MCSP 1992) has delineated risk zones
by modeling the storm surge with GIS. Damen and Van Western (2003) have studied
vulnerability and risk analysis for Bangladesh using population density and storm
height. Prakasa Rao (2005: 3611)developed a methodology for the estimation of cycloneinduced flood through remote sensing and GIS for two delta regions in AP.The capability
of applying GIS in various aspects of risk assessment has been demonstrated by many
researchers. Specifically, Miller and Onwuteaka (1999: 460) evaluated the vulnerability
of the landscape to oil spills in the East. Granger et al. ( 1999) equally utilised GIS to
synthesise and model the spatial relationship between vulnerability and hazard in
18
218.30
Human Loss
12,000
6.63
35.71
59.65
18,468.57
Factors that have combined to compound natural disaster vulnerability along the AP coast are:
Over 50 per cent of cyclones in the region turn into severe storms, which are often
accompanied by storm surges
The low-lying lands that prevail along Godavari, Krishna, and Pennar deltas and
Pulicat lake are subject to widespread flooding and deep inland sea water incursion
that even a few metres high storm surge can create
High concentration of population, infrastructure, and harbour-related economic
activities along the shore line
Experiences with the cyclones in AP stressed the need for modernisation and
strengthening of existing infrastructure. Therefore, it is proposed to construct new
cyclone shelters as well as missing road links/bridges under Component B of the National
Cyclone Risk Mitigation project (NCRMP, 2009: 4).
The following severe cyclonic storms that landfalls AP coast are considered for the
study (Table 2). These tracks are digitized and created shape files and these are overlaid
on the study area having taluk boundaries to identify the vulnerability of each taluk with
reference to the track.
Year
Month
Period
1906
October
7th to 9th
Bheemunipatnam
1907
October
1st to 2nd
Chillakur
1914
May
13th to 16th
Ichchapuram
1925
May
13th to 16th
Koduru
1932
November
22nd to 27th
Sullurpeta
1933
November
14th to 18th
Kothapatnam
1938
November
21st to 28th
Nagayalanka
1940
May
17th to 8th
Indukurpet
1966
November
18th to 22nd
Santhabommali
10
1966
November
1st to 8th
Vakada
11
1968
November
2nd to 5th
Chillakur
12
1969
November
6th to 8th
Allavaram
13
1972
November
22nd to 23rd
Sullurpeta
14
1976
November
4th to 5th
Machilipatnam
15
1976
November
16th to 17th
Kavali
16
1977
November
15th to 20th
Chirala
17
1977
October
29th to 31st
Kavali
18
1979
May
8th to 13th
Vidavalur
19
1979
November
21st to 25th
Tada
20
1979
November
23rd to 29th
Nizampatnam
21
1982
October
17th to 21st
Tada
22
1982
October
15th to 16th
Katrenikonda
23
1983
October
2nd to 6th
Bheeminipatnam
24
1984
November
12th to 13th
Vakadu
25
1985
October
10th to 11th
Rambilli
26
1989
November
6th to 8th
Kavali
27
1990
May
6th to 11th
Nizampatnam
28
1998
November
14th to 16th
Visakhapatnam
29
2003
December
14th to 16th
Kruthivennu
Study area
The study area covers 86 taluks of AP spread along the coast and about 100-140 km inland.Geographically, it is located between 780 46 to 840 45 East longitude and 130 01
to 190 16 North latitude (Figure 1).The study area is extracted from the digital database
oftaluk map of India.
The coastal districts are primarily agricultural-based. Guntur, Krishna, East Godavari,
West Godavari, and Nellore have highly productive network of irrigation canals of
the Krishna and Godavari rivers. These four districts, along with Srikakulam, also face
the brunt of floods during the monsoons now and then. The coastline ranging from
Srikakulam in the north and Nellore in the south is affected by at least one severe/very
severe cyclone almost every year.
Path
Row
Date of pass
Resoucesat-(AWiFS)
105
056
099
060
Resourcesat-AWiFS sensor data are used to prepare the mosaic of the study area after
geo-rectifying the data. This data is selected to show the present status of land use and
land cover and other geomorphologic features, which are important for vulnerability
assessment.
In order to create the vulnerability map, attribute tables are created for the
following input mapssevere cyclonic tracks, population data of all the taluks and
creation of density map, various taluks and their distance from the coast by creating
buffer zones, location of taluks with respective to cyclone tracks,extraction of coast from
image data preparation of slope map from ASTER DEM, and preparation of land use land
cover from AWiFS data. Weight factors are assigned to each taluk and their location with
respective to various above factors. A vulnerability map is prepared by integrated weight
factors of the above themes.
Classification
% of Total area
Agricultural Land
81,014.00
81.89
Fallow Land
4,371.62
4.42
817.57
0.82
Deciduous Forest
5,546.12
5.60
390.20
0.40
Water Bodies
4,747.49
4.80
Others
2,040.00
2.07
Agriculture land and Wetlands (lakes, etc.) are shown in yellow and blue respectively.
The former is an important component of ecosystem and the latter form the economy of
the region. Generally the coastal areas are highly prone to flood/inundation during sever
cyclones due to heavy rain and storm surge aroused from strong winds. The areas, with
Ground slope
DEM of land surface provides significant information for many research activities and
important data as the input of image processing and image analysis, such as image correction due to height of land surface (Ortho rectification), contour mapping, 3D images
generation, disaster management (determination of vulnerable area due to landslide,
flood and tsunami disaster), monitoring land subsidence phenomenon and many others. ASTER (Advance Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM is
downloaded from the web site. ASTER on board of Terra spacecraft is multi-spectral optical sensor that is launched on December 1999. ASTER sensor has 14 spectral bands that
range from visible to thermal infrared band. There is also stereo coverage in band from 3n
(nadir looking) 3b (backward looking). Therefore, the capabilities of ASTER stereo image
that provides DEM with high spatial resolution (30 m) is very important for remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information System) users to enhance the accuracy of desired
height information.
Population Density
The population density is high along the coast due to agricultural resources industrial
establishments, which generally depend on water resources of the area. Hence, majority of cities are located along the coast with dense population, ports, and shipyards. The
population density is very important parameter in vulnerability mapping of any area.
Demographic details are obtained from the Department of Statics and Population Studies, Government of India censes 2001. Population density map is prepared taking taluk
as a unit. Collected population data is divided with the area of the taluk and tabulated as
density per square kilometer and spatial distribution of density map is prepared. Population density is shown in 4 classes; namely very high, high, medium and low. Different
colours are assigned to each density class as shown in Figure 4b.Thus, any single taluk
with population in a definite range has single colour. Also more than one taluk may have
a single colour as they may have population with the same range.
In the present analysis, the taluks with more population are located nearer to the coast
or cyclone path have been given higher weights, as there would be heavy human loss if
a cyclone landfall on these areas.The areas with low population density and away from
the track or coastline are given lower weights. All the four categories are assigned by the
factors 2, 6, 8 and 10 according to density ranges in increasing order. Visakhapatnam
and Vijayawada taluks showed high density, and Vizianagaram and Sulurpet showed the
medium level of density followed by remaining taluks.
11
Storm surge
The storm surge is the sudden rise of seawater due to tropical cyclone and is greatly amplified when the coastal water is shallow, in the estuarine region and the shape of the coast
is like a tunnel. Because of the dense populations along the coast, storm surge associated
the cyclones is the greatest potential threat to life and property. It is, sometimes a large
dense of water from 80 to 150 km wide that sweeps across the coast line where the cyclone makes its landfall caused by the high winds pushing the ocean surface ahead of the
storm. (Krishna Rao, and Ramana Murty, 2003: 2). The level of the surge in a particular
area is determined by the intensity of the storm and the slope of the continental shelf.
A shallow slope off the coast will allow a greater surge to inundate coastal communities.
The phenomenon is so sudden that there is hardly any time for the victim to react
and unless and until prior evacuation is carried out, the loss of life in the effected region
will be nearly complete. The storm surge map of the AP coast is taken from the APCHMP
report and scanned. The scanned map is geo-referenced and digitised the boundary of the
storm surge and overlay on the taluk boundary map. The weight factor 10 is assigned to
taluks covered by the storm surge boundary and 5 is to half or partly covered taluks and
1 to the uncovered. The taluks existing along the coast from Nellore to Kakinada have
shown the effect of storm surge. However, its affect is more in the case of Machilipatnam
and Avanigedda taluks(Figure 4d).
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Figure 4.a. Ground slopeb. Population densityc. Buffer zones from the coast,
d. Storm surge
13
Srikakulam
TALUK
Weight factors
Direction
of the
track
Land
Use/
Land
Cover
Slope
Population
density
Distance
From
the coast
Storm
surge
Result
Sompeta
10
10
High
Pathapatnam
10
Medium
Tekkali
10
10
10
10
V. High
Palakonda
Medium
Srikakulam
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Narsannapeta
10
10
10
High
Ichchapuram
10
10
10
High
Chipurupalle
10
10
10
10
High
Vizianagaram Parvathipuram
Low
Salur
Low
Bobbili
Medium
Gajapatinaga-
Medium
Vizianagaram
10
High
Srungavarapu-
Medium
ram
kota
Puspatirega
10
10
10
10
V. High
Visakhapat-
Paderu
Low
nam
Anantagiri
Low
Chodavaram
Medium
Chintapalle
Low
Bhimunipat-
10
10
10
10
V. High
10
10
10
10
V. High
Anakapalli
10
10
High
Narsipatnam
10
10
High
Yellamanchili
10
10
10
V. High
nam
Vishakhapatnam
Ellavaram
Low
RampaChoda-
Low
Tuni
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Prathipadu
10
High
Rajahmundry
10
10
Medium
Peddapuram
10
10
High
Pithapuram
10
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Kakinada
10
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Kottapeta
10
10
High
Ramachandrapuram
10
10
10
High
Mummidivaram
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Amalapuram
10
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
varam
Razole
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Yanam
Yanam
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
West Godavari
Polavaram
Low
Chintalapudi
Low
Kovvur
Medium
Eluru
Medium
Tadepallegu-
10
High
Tanuku
10
10
High
Bhimavaram
10
10
10
10
V. High
Narsapur
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Vijayawada
10
10
High
Nuzvid
Low
Kaikalur
10
10
10
High
Gannavaram
10
High
Gudivada
10
10
10
V. High
Machilipat-
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
dem
Krishna
nam
Avanigadda
15
Guntur
Prakasam
Nellore
Cuddapah
Chittoor
Sattenapalle
10
Medium
Guntur
10
10
10
High
Tenali
10
10
10
V. High
Narasaraopet
Medium
Vinukonda
Medium
Repalle
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Bapatla
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Markapur
Low
Addanki
Medium
Chirala
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Darsi
Medium
Giddalur
Low
Podili
Low
Ongole
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Kanigiri
Low
Kandukur
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Udayagiri
10
Medium
Kavali
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Atmakur
10
High
Kovvur
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Nellore
10
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Rapur
10
High
Gudur
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Venkatagiri
10
High
Sulurpet
10
10
10
10
10
10
V. High
Badvel
10
Medium
Sidhout
Low
Rajampet
Medium
Sri Kalahasti
10
High
Chandragiri
Low
Satyavedu
10
Medium
Puttur
Low
Chittoor
Low
Vulnerability map
As discussed above, the weights are tabulated to all the taluks for all vulnerability parameters as shown in Table 3. To all classes in the above maps, different weight values are
assigned in their attribute table. Finally, all factor maps are analysed in Arc GIS software
to obtain a hazard map which is then classified into four classes: low, moderate, high,
and very high vulnerability hazard. The vulnerability map is shown in Figure 5.
There are 20 taluks, which spread along the coast come under very high category of
vulnerability to cyclone-induced floods. Under high vulnerability category, 9 taluks are
along the coast and 9 taluks are 20 km away from the coast which are spread in Guntur,
Krishna, East Godavari and Northern districts. 44 per cent of the taluks are categorised
as very high and high and the remaining come under medium and low category of
vulnerability. On the levels of extent of damage arrived at form ground truth, for the
17
Conclusion
The study of the coastal AP for flood vulnerability has high importance to manage the
flood disaster in the state. An ideal flood disaster management system need to support
the activities related to preparedness, damage assessment and rehabilitation based on the
vulnerability map. The space inputs could be used in taking preventive measure through
vulnerability analysis, hazard zonation, and prior risk assessment at regional and local
levels. Hence, an attempt is made to study the coast vulnerability of AP using spatial out
puts and the secondary data.
The area immediately close to the coast is relatively less populated, less accessible due
to poor communication. The people living in the belt of 20 km from the coast generally
comprise fisher folk and weaker sections and majority of them live in thatched houses,
which are vulnerable to the wind pressures of cyclonic gale, which exceed 100 km per
hour. Out of 86 taluks of the study area 38 are under threat to cyclone-induced floods.
The risk index estimated by Jaiyanti (1998: 115) has indicated C (11- 15 of 1 to 25 scale)
category to the above coastal area. However, it is to be rated as B due to its economic
importance and population density in the present context.
The major cities Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Machilipatnam, Kakinadaand Nellore
are densely populated with major industries which are within the above zone besides
major deltas of Krishna, Godavari and Pennar rivers. Hence, the study results are to be
adopted to improve flood management strategies, necessary precautions to reduce the
population losses, crop damages, housing problems and infrastructure facilities in the
coastal areas, based on their vulnerability.
Acknowledgement
The first author acknowledges DST for awarding 3D flood simulation project. He also
extends his thanks to AICTE for awarding Emeritus Fellowship.
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Miller J.B., and Onwuuteaka J., Oil Spill Emergency Response GIS: Using GIS to Model Environmental
Vulnerability in Coastal Oil Fields, 1999, East Central Nigeria, in Proceedings of ESRI Users
Conference ,http:gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc99/proceed/papers/pap460/p460.htm.
Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Programme (MCSP) - Draft final report, vol. IV, Planning and
development issues, UNDP/World Bank/GOB project BGD/91/025,1992.
Prakasa Rao B.S., Ammineduand E., Murty K.S.R., Estimation of Flood Vulnerability Index for
Delta Areas through RS&GIS. International Conference on Geosciences and Remote Sensing,
Coexseoul, Korea, IEEE proceedings vol. 5, July 2005, pp. 3611-3614.
Thumerer A., Jones P. and Brown D., A GIS based Coastal Management Style for Climate Chang
Associated Risk on the East Coast of England, 2000, Geogr. Info. Sci., 14(3): 265-281.
Triskti Bambang and Carolita Ita, Comparison Result of DEM Generated from ASTER Stereo Data
and SRTM. Research officer of the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
(LAPAN), GIS development.net
19
Abstract
Changing climate and global warming are the key issues today due to which the world community isfacing several risks. According to D. Douglos, the magnitude of warming was rapid in
the 19thcentury than in the 17th and 18th century in Nepal. In addition, the research shows
that annual warming at Himalayan region of Nepal, between 1977 and 1994, was found to be
0.060C/year. These changes could have large effects on Himalayan glaciers by shrinkage of glaciated areas. Also, there will be substantial increase in the aerial extent of Glacier Lake which may
cause catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). During GLOF, the rocks and debris are
also released into the valleys downstream with such intensity that the valley floor is badly eroded,
and becomes extremely unstable. The extent of GLOF damage depends on the speed of the release
of the impounded glacier waters. The method presented in paper will enable researchers and planners to estimate GLOF at downstream of lake.
Key words: GLOF, IPCC,Zangzhangbo
Background
Intergovernmental Pannel for Climate Change (IPCC 2001 b) indicates that warming in
the Asian Region is projected to be 30C by 2050. According to Douglos (1995), the magnitude of warming was more rapid in the 19thCentury than in the 17th and 18th century
at higher elevation in Nepal. In addition, the annual warming of the Himalayan Region
of Nepal between 1977 and 1994 was found to be 0.060C/year (Shrestha et al 1999). These
21
BINOD SHAKYA
changes could have large effects on Himalayan Glaciers by shrinking of glaciated areas.
Also, there will be substantial increases in the aerial extent of glacier lakes, which may
cause catastrophic Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Rapid melting of snow enlarge
the existing Glacier Lake or create a new Glacier Lake and a small disturbance can break
the Glacier Lake dam resulting in release of huge amount of water and generates a devastating flood (J.E. Costa, 1988).
In Nepal, Climate change and GLOF studies have been carried out by different institutions including government organisations, international non governmental organisations, academic institutes and the privet sector. CDHM 1999 report showed the growth of
glacier lakes and the formation of new glacier lake in the Nepals Eastern Himalayas with
liable threats of GLOF. Between 1960 and 2000, moraine dammed lakes increased from
33 to 89 in numbers in Khumbhu Region only. Further, it was reported that total moraine
dammed lakes reached 7.254 km2 from 2.291 km2 (Bajracharya et al 2007). In 2001, B.
Shakya identified the most potentially dangerous glacier lakes using criteria based on, size
of a lake and topographic features around the lakeLower Barun glacier Lake, Imja glacier
lake, Thulagi glacier lake, and TshoRolpa glacier lake. Dig Tsho Glacier Lake was considered
a potentially dangerous glacier lake and it burst in August 1985. ImjaGlacierLake is a
similar type of potentially dangerous lake with rapidly expanding and larger lake. The
estimated volume of water stored in the lake was around 28 million m3 in 1992 and 35.8
million m3 in 2002 (Bajracharya et al 2007). The study carried out by B. Shakya 2001 over
9 EasternNepal Himalayan Basin shows active formation of lakes over six basins out of
nine.
From various researches, it was noted that Eastern Nepal and the adjoining Tibet Region (China) have most active glaciers and there are numerous occurrences of glacier
lakes over there. The detailed studies of GLOF of the Himalayan region were not done
properly. But, after GLOF of Zhangzamgbo1981 and Dig Tsho 1985, the scientific attention of the phenomena was realized (WECS Report, 1988). The records show that most
of the cases GLOF have occurred on all major tributaries of the Saptakoshi catchment.
WWF Nepal and Tribhuvan University, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
have jointly carried out vulnerability assessment from climate change to GLOF in Khumbu Region (sub basin of Saptakoshi catchment) in 2007. Though the environment looks
calmduring assessment, a high threat of GLOF to new settlements, hotels and lodges
in the future was anticipated especially from LakeImja. Some settlements were highly
exposed to GLOF, but such settlements are still growing despite the threat of GLOF (B.
Shakya and K.B. Thapa, 2007).
GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF) AND ITS ESTIMATION AT NEPALS HIGHER HIMALAYA
During GLOF, the rocks and debris are also released into the valleys downstream with
such intensity that the valley floor is badly eroded, and becomes extremely unstable.
The extent of GLOF damage depends on the speed of the release of the impounded glacier waters. If it is gradual, the effect may not be as devastating. The GLOF impact is
generally devastating at nearby settlements and infrastructures of downstream of lake
that are situated near or across the river. In addition to this GLOF occur randomly and
give insufficient warning, they may cause much damage to human settlements of upper
mountain areas. Dig Cho GLOF of August 1985 destroyed nearly completed Namche
small hydroelectric project. Even small GLOF of Chuffing on July 12, 1991 destroyed six
houses and riverbanks. The GLOF of Zhagzanbo at Poque on 1981 July (Bhote - Sunkoshi)
destroyed the diversion wire at the Sunkoshi hydroelectric project in Nepal. Two bridges
were also swept away. Therefore,to reduce the vulnerability from GLOF in Nepal, management of settlement, proper designing of major infrastructures such as bridge, dam, roads,
etc. are necessary. To approximately design Lake burst flood and anticipated Lake burst
flood level for settlement, it is first necessary to estimate the volume of flow at outlet of
lake and at the downstream of the lake. This paper aims to present some formulae to
estimate GLOF at outlet of lake and at the downstream of lake. The research is based on
Scientific Research of Central Asian Hydrometeorological Institute (SANIGMI) conducted
between1998 and 2001. The developed formulas are based on lake volume and statistical
modeling of past GLOFs data from Nepal and other lake burst data. The paper also aims
to present implementation of method on Imja Lake study by WWF project.
GLOF in Nepal
The detail studies of GLOF of the Himalayan region were carried out properly before
1980s, nevertheless, after GLOF of 1981 (Zhangzamgbo) and 1985 (Dig Tsho) the scientific attention of the phenomena was realized (WECS Report, 1988). Most of the GLOF
cases were identified at the all major tributaries of the Saptakoshi catchment. Some of the
recorded events are:
GLOF on Bhotekoshi from Dig Tsho (August 04,1985)
TinkoGLOF of 1982 in Yairuzangbo River of Poique catchment (in Tibet, China and
Arun catchment in Nepal)
GLOF on Bhote-Sunkoshi in Nepal from Zhanzangbo lake 1964, 1981
GLOF from Phuchan glacier lakes on the Tamur river in 1980 and Nare glacier lakes
(South slopes of Mt. Ama Dablam in Nepal) in 1977
23
BINOD SHAKYA
GLOF of Ayaco at Northern slope West of Mt. Everest in Pumpque catchment (Tibet,
China) 1968, 1969 and 1970
GLOF of ChubungJuly 12, 1991 Rolwaling valley
GLOF of Zhagzanbo lake at Poqu in July 1981 (Bhote-Sunkoshi)
The location of glacier lakes bursts are presented in Figure 1.1.
GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF) AND ITS ESTIMATION AT NEPALS HIGHER HIMALAYA
Glacier Lake and river cross-sections. In such case, the reliable estimation of the peak flow
and flow attenuation at downstream from a dam is statistical modeling from historical
dam failure data. Kirkpatrick in 1977 shows relation between flow volume and height of
dam considering 21 dam failure data and statistical modeling. Similar type of equation
was developed by U.S Soil Conservation Service in 1981 produce relations using 31 dam
fail cases. Hagen in 1982 and Syldler 1984 developed equation between Flood at outlet
and lake volume. Similar method was adopted by Clague and Mathews (1973) glacier lake
outburst (cited J.J. Clague and S.G. Evans, 1994).
Method
For statistical model the basic data needed are historical flood data at lake outlet, flood
attenuation data downstream of lake and other data such as lave volume or dam height
before it burst. Only few data on flood downstream attenuation, flood at outlet of lake
and lake volume prior to burst is available in Nepal. However, some data on surface area
of lake corresponding to lake volume is available for regression analysis.
Therefore, three regression equations are combined to develop GLOF statistical model as:
VL=f(SA)
Qo=f(VL)
QD/Qo=f(D)
where, VL is lake volume, SA is lake surface area, Qo is GLOF at outlet of lake and QD is
GLOF at any downstream distance D.
In other to develop GLOF attenuation formulae, various GLOF data, lake volume and
surface area of lake, and downstream distances are collected from different literatures. Beside
these, primary data from field survey of Phuchan and Dudh Koshi GLOF were also collected.
25
BINOD SHAKYA
in Figure 1.2. Similarly based on TshoRolpa and Dig Tshobursts in Nepal and 10 more
GLOF data outside Nepal, regression equation is developed between lake volume and
GLOF at outlet. The developed equation is:
Q0 = 95. 97VL0.5981 (2)
Where, VL is total volume of lake in 106 m3 and Qo is GLOF at outlet of lake in cumecs.
The square of correlation coefficient for the relationships equals to 0.90. The developed
regression equation is presented in figure 1.3. The historical GLOFs with volume of lake
is presented in Table 1.1.
Burst year
VL , 106 m3
Qo, m3/s
DudhKoshi, Nepal
1977
8.80
1,100
Demmevatn, Norway
1937
11.6
1,000
GraenalonIceland
1939
1500
5,000
GjanupsvatnIceland
1951
20.0
370
George, Alaska
1951
1730
10,100
1958
229
1,556
1967
251
3,260
1967
4.80
200
1978
19.6
640
Gruben, Switzerland
1970
0.17
15
Gorner, Switzerland
1944
6.00
200
1985
25.0
1,600
GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF) AND ITS ESTIMATION AT NEPALS HIGHER HIMALAYA
The records on downstream attenuation of GLOF are rarely available. The GLOF attenuation strength for Zangzhangbo GLOF was presented by Yamada, 1998. The best-fit
regression equation (figure 1.4) of GLOF attenuation is constructed with data of Zhangzangbo GLOF and with primary data from field visit at Phuchen burst site (B. Shakya,
2001) and two historical floods from dam failure in the US (Table 1.2). The developed
equation is:
(3)
where, Q0 and QDare GLOF at outlet of lake and at distance D (km) downstream respectively.
Table 1.2: Flood attenuation, %
Lake name
Distance,
km
Flood
attenuation, %
0.0
100.0
17.0
82.0
22.0
37.0
80.0
11.0
124
6.3
0.0
100.0
16.0
46.0
138
3.9
178
2.9
Teton (US)
Figure 3.1: Downstream attenuation
from lake burst
0.0
Estimation of Imja GLOF:This lake is located D. Tsho (Nepal)
0
0
at 27 5917 North latitude and 86 5531 East
5.4
longitude over eastern Nepal. The total volume
12.0
at present is about 35.8 million m3 in 2002
15.8
(Bajracharya et al 2007). The WWF project on
Phuchen (Nepal) 0.0
Khumbu climate change (2007) adopted the
7.6
above equations and estimated flood assuming
10.5
incase of GLOF in 2008. The result is shown in
Table 1.4.
Source: cited Shakya B 2001
100.0
60.2
26.9
15.3
100.0
67.0
40.0
27
BINOD SHAKYA
Table: 1.4: GLOF at outlet and downstream of Imja incase of burst
Distance, km
10
20
30
40
50
GLOF, m3/s
4,757
2,900
2,344
1,678
1,249
949
735
Conclusion
A detailed research on all glacier lake is a tough task due to the harsh topography, poor
economy and lack of scientific research. The possible GLOF mark at downstream lake
and other management from GLOF threat is still not started. However, Nepal Government lowered a TshoRolpa Lake level using siphons and set up GLOF early stations at and
downstream of Lake. To reduce GLOF vulnerability, estimation of downstream flood from
burst is key data to mark the dangerous level at downstream and to design any infrastructure near or across river. In this connection the only easily achievable data is surface area
of the lake e.g. via Satellite Images. The area also can be extracted from different literatures and reports. Therefore, equations 1,2, and 3 presented above can be used to estimate
GLOF at downstream of lake.
References
CDHM T.U., Glacier Lake Assessment of Nepal Himalayas Uning NASDA satellite Image. Research
Report, Tribhuvan University., 1999.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, WECS, NEA: Report On First Expedition To Glacier And Glacier Lakes
In The Pumqu (Arun) And Poiqu (Bote-Sunkoshi ) River Catchments Xizang (Tibet), China, 1988.
Clague J.J. and Evans S.G., Formation and failure of natural dams in the Canadian Cordillera.
Geological Society, Canada, Bull. 464, 1994.
Clarke G.K.C., Glacier outburst floods from Hazard Lake, Yukon Territory, and the problem of
flood magnitude prediction. Journal of Glaciology, 1982, vol. 28, pp. 3- 21.
Costa J.E. and Schuster R.L., The formation and failure of natural dams.Geological Society of America
Bulletin, vol.100, pp. 1054- 1068, 1988.
Douglos D., Climate Change in Nepal Himalaya, Research Paper, Arizona State University,
Publication, ASU, 1995.
IPCC (2001b) and Climate Change (2001):Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of
working group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Ives J.D., Glacier Lake Outburst Floods and Risk Engineering in the Himalaya. ICIMOD, occasional
paper no.5, 1986).
GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF) AND ITS ESTIMATION AT NEPALS HIGHER HIMALAYA
Shakya B. and Thapa K.B., Integrated Study in Hydrology and Meteorology of Khumbu Region with
Climate Change Perspectives, Research Report, WWF publ., 2007.
Shakya B., Estimation of Main Hydrological Characteristics for Mountain Rivers of Nepal.Research
Paper, publ. Central Asian Research Hydrometeorological Institute, publno. 556.535.3, 2001.
Shrestha A.B., Wake C.P., Mayewski P.A. and Dibb J.E., Maximum Temperature Trends in the
Himalaya and its Vicinity: An Analysis based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the period
1971-1994. In Journal of Climate, publ. no 12: 2775-2767, 1999.
Yamada T., Glacier lake and its outburst flood in the Nepal Himalayas. Monograph no 1, Japanese
Society of Snow and Ice, 1998.
29
Abstract
This paper focuses on the present disaster anticipatory systems of the Indian railways and usefulness of some measures in the disaster management plan of mega cities of India. Indian Railways
is the biggest network of Asia, and possesses efficient Disaster Management (DM) system. Hence,
some disaster anticipatory measures become very useful and effective in DM plan of a Mega civic
body in India. In this paper, these important useful points of DM plan of Indian Railways are
shown in reference to Ahmedabad city DM plan.
key words: Disaster, anticipatory measures Preventive actions, DM plan, Efficient city
DM plan
Introduction
The Indian subcontinent can be primarily divided into three geophysical regions. The
topographic and climatic characteristics of each region make them susceptible to different type of disasters54 per cent of land is vulnerable to Earthquakes, 40 million hectares of land is vulnerable to floods; hilly areas are at risk from landslides and avalanches.
Moreover, vulnerability to disasters/emergencies of terrorist attack, Chemical, Biological,
Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) origin also exists.
The Indian Railways came into existence with the running of the first train from Kurla
to Thane in 1853. Ever since then, handling train accidents has been a priority area for
the railways. Thus, in the Indian Railways, disasters may be in the form of natural calami-
31
J.G. MACWAN
ties like cyclones, heavy rains, earthquake, landslides, or manmade calamities accidents
like fire, collision or derailment. The Indian Railways has its own DM system and plan.
Ahmedabad is a mega city, commercial capital of Gujarat, the former capital of Gujarat, a major centre for industries as well as trade and commerce, was founded in 1411
AD as a walled city on the eastern bank of River Sabarmati. In the past, due to its textile
industries, Ahmedabad was famous as the Manchester of India. Presently, Ahmedabad is
the 7th largest city of Gujarat and also its commercial capital. Ahmedabad is vulnerable
to multiple natural hazards like earthquake, flood, cyclone, heavy rain due to its geographical position. Moreover, the city is vulnerable to manmade technical and biological
hazards like terrorist attacks, communal riots/civil disorders, fire, Air/rail, road/industrial
accidents and epidemic disasters. In the past, Ahmedabad has faced destruction in 2001
and 2002 due to earthquake and communal riots. To handle disasters, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation has prepared DM plan. Some important points of DM plans of the
Indian Railways became useful in city DM plan.
Indian Railways:
Railways were first introduced to India in 1853. By 1947, the year of Indias independence, there were forty-two rail systems. In 1951, the systems were nationalised as one
unit, becoming one of the largest networks in the world. Indian Railways operate both
long distance and suburban rail systems on a multi-gauge network of broad, meter, and
narrow gauges. It also owns locomotive and coach production facilities.
1.1. Organisation
The Indian Railways is Asias largest and the worlds 2nd largest Railway system, next to
Russia. The Indian Railways is the nations largest undertakings employing more than 16
lakh people. The Indian Railways is owned and managed by the Central Government being the principal mode of inland transport.
The responsibility for the administration and management of the Railways vests with
the Railway Board under the overall supervision of the Minister for Railways. The Board
is empowered to function as the Ministry of the Government of India, and exercise all
powers related to the operation of the Railway organisation. The Railway Board consists of six members and chairman who has special position as principal secretary to the
Government of India. The Indian Railways is divided into zones, which are further subdivided into divisions. The number of zones in the Indian Railways increased from six to
eight in 1951, nine in 1952, and finally 16 in 2003. Each zonal railway is made up of a
33
J.G. MACWAN
property. It includes setting fire to a train, railway installations, etc., bomb blast at railway
station/inside train, chemical (terrorism) disaster, biological and nuclear disaster.
1.4 Nodal department for Policy Formulation on DM in the Indian Railways
There are control offices in the Railway headquarter and the divisional offices which
monitor and control train movements round the clock.
The preparation of the DM plans of the Indian Railways and on the Zonal Railways in
co-ordination with the different departments of the railways, other Central/State Govt.
agencies, NGOs, Private agencies, etc. has to be done by the Safety department in the
Railway Board, on the Zonal Railways and Divisions. Safety Director in the Railway Ministry, Chief Safety Officer in each zonal headquarter, and Sr. Divisional Safety Officer in
the Divisional headquarters are full-time emergency officers.
Besides the above, organisation which functions under the control of Ministry
of Railways, there exists a Commission of Railway Safety headed by Chief Commissioner of Railway Safety with Commissioners of Railway Safety reporting to him. To
maintain independence, the safety Commissioner functions under the control of
Ministry of Civil Aviation and enquires into cases of all serious accidents. Its permission is also needed for opening of new lines, introduction of new rolling stock, etc.
The Commissioner has quasi-judicial powers, and the work is manned by officers
from the Indian Railways.
The Hospital DM plans and the Security arrangements (drills, etc.) are prepared and
coordinated by the Medical and the Security department respectively. The management
of floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, etc., and the preventive actions required for
mitigation are coordinated by the the Civil Engineering Department. The Rescue and
Restoration of DM Plans including preparing plans and procurement of specialised equipment and rescue-centric training of personnel has to be coordinated by the Mechanical
Department
1.5 Disaster Anticipatory Measures of Indian Railways
The Indian Railways have an elabourate scheme for collecting information and pre-warning of the staff located in areas likely to be affected, for taking precautionary arrangements to prevent any mishap to moving trains or passengers by giving relief to passengers
and staff and restoration of communication expeditiously if any stretch of line is affected.
These form part of mandatory instructions to the staff on action to be taken during train
accidents; they also form part of General and subsidiary rule of working of Railways.
35
J.G. MACWAN
Limited resources to handle a terrorist attack on a train and/or a station, other railway
premises, etc.
1.8 Managerial Preparedness
An emergency organisation is formed to suit each situation. When a disaster causes damages resulting in interruption to traffic, managers and staff are drawn from among the
regular serving personnel, and emergency organisation is formed for supervision till normal situation restores. For attending this activities, suitably equipped relief trains, medical
vans and emergency building /track materials including emergency bridge components
are kept in readiness all the time. Railways carries out potential training programmes just
like periodical training, refresher training, promotional course etc., for staff in executive
and supervisory levels and from field staff on DM aspects, either as part of their regular
training programmes or through special course.
Moreover, in order to expedite work, some unorthodox management methods are
adopted; for example, fixing agencies to carry out work, purchase of urgently required
materials, engaging of labour, revising priority for movement of trains working across
ones jurisdiction in respect of territorial as well as sectional boundaries. Any senior railway officer who happens to travel in a train, which meets with a disaster or faces disaster,
is expected to inform all concerned on the nature of the trouble and take charge of the
situation till the officer in charge of the area arrives at site.
1.9 Action during Disasters
(i) Action on Division/Zones on Orange/Red Alert
On the issue of an Orange Alert (or of a higher level), the Responders have to be activated
as required for relief, etc.:
Mobilisation of gangmen
Hospitals to mobilise doctors and para-medical staff
deployment of railway protection force, state railway police and activate civil defense,
territorial army units, and scouts and guides
Operation and manning of the disaster control room and Coordination amongst various stake holders through advance warnings
(ii) Monitoring/Reporting of Effects of Disaster
The Safety Department. in the Board would be given information regarding Orange/Red
Alerts. On the declaration of an incident as a Disaster by a State Government or District
37
J.G. MACWAN
basis, arrangements are made for supply of free cooked food to them in proper time, and
temporary staying arrangements closer to the site are provided. A proper medical and
health team would be posted to look after the hygiene at site and render medical treatment to staff at site itself including inoculation against cholera and typhoid. Engaging a
lot of labour for short duration directly by the Railways paying them and discharge them
on completion of work is not practicable by following laid down procedure of Railways;
same applies to procurement of some construction materials. These are, therefore, done
by engaging contractors. Time being precious, the executive in charge is given freedom
to fix agencies on the site by directly negotiation with experienced contractors who are
available close by and who have the necessary resources readily available with them. The
negotiation are carried out at site itself by committee comprising of engineer concerned,
the finance and accounts officer for the section and another officer. There have been occasions during such emergencies when contractors have been fixed on 24 hour basis for
assessment of damages.
The labour of the track work, bridgework, signal, and telecom and electrical traction
works call for special skill. Hence, such staff is collected from other different sections or
divisions or by diversion from construction work to the said site of work temporarily.
Railways normally hold emergency stock of stones and temporary bridge materials in
different areas.
(ii)Manmade Disasters
Different forms of terrorism fall under the ambit of manmade disasters. A major role
has to be played by the Security Department of the Railways who will coordinate with
the State Governments, and when required, coordinate with the para-military and other
forces. The Security Control of the division will act as the ICS. The headquarter of Security
Control will coordinate with the IOC of MHA.
1.11 Initiative actions after DM plan 2005 of Government of India
Preparation of DM Plans on Zonal Railways with periodical review
Safety Department: Nodal Department for compilation/updating of DM Plans
ISO certification of DM plans
Creation of national disaster response and mitigation funds
Modernisation of relief/rescue during disasters
Crowd control and management of rush at railway stations during festivals
Action plan to handle terrorist attacks on a freight train carrying inflammables
Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad, the former capital of Gujarat and a major centre for industries as well as
trade and commerce, was famous as the Manchester of India. Presently, it is the 7th largest city of Gujarat, and also its commercial capital.
2.1 Demographic Characteristic
Administrative Body-Municipal Corporation
Area: 458.14 sq km
No of Wards: 57
Polulation: 66,00,000 (as per 2001 census and with new city limit)
No of Households: 10,55, 851
39
J.G. MACWAN
2.2 Organisation setup
Administration of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation is being done by two wings(1)
Elected wing, and (2) Executive wing. The head of the elected wing is called Mayor who
is a first citizen of Ahmedabad. There are so many other committees like standing committee, transport committee, Legal committee, etc., which are headed by the concerned
chairmen. The Mayor, and all committees are policy makers, While Commissioner, a
Secretary rank IAS officer is Administrative head and appointed by state Government,
is assisted by other Dy. and Assistant Commissioners. Presently, Ahmedabad Municipal
Corporations staff strength is 35,000. For administrative conveniences, municipal area is
divided in 5 zones and 57 wards, which are headed by Dy. Municipal Commissioner and
Ward Officer respectively.
2.3 Potential Hazard Possibility In Ahmedabad
Ahmedabad is vulnerable to multiple natural, manmade, technical, and biological hazards:
Table 1 Possibility and intensity of Disasters in Ahmedabad
Type of disasters
Possibility
Earthquake
Medium
Flood
Medium
Heat wave
High
Cold wave
Medium
Cyclone
Medium
Terrorist Attack
High
Civil Disorder
High
Less
Road Accident
Medium
Railway Accident
Less
Air Accident
Medium
Fire
High
Wall/Building Collapse
High
Industrial Accident
Medium
Epidemic Disease
High
Animal Disease
Very less
41
J.G. MACWAN
from the State Government is provided. In worst situations, on the report of the State
Government, the Central Government provides help.
(ii) System to handle Manmade Disaster
In the case of manmade disasters like terrorist attacks, civil disorders, the function of the
Municipal administration is very limited. Two main organsthe Fire brigade and the
hospital infrastructuresare activated to help the police authority to handle the situation.
In the case of accident-related disasters, all hospitals situated in the city area provide
emergency medical assistance to the victims, and fire brigade provides services in relief
and rescue work.
While in the case of epidemic diseases, the Health depart of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation provides services through their hospitals, and public relation department
issues various advertisements in print and electronic media to provide information about
the diseases to the public so that they can get preventive actions. In the worst situation
of epidemic disasters, the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation contact the State Health
Ministry for assistantship, and depending on the situation, the State Ministry gets help
from the Central Ministry.
2.7. Initiative actions after Disaster Management plan 2005 of Government
of India
Before DM plan 2005 of the Government of India, Gujarat State Disaster Management
Authority (GSDMA) and the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) had jointly
started Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Programme (UEVRP) 2002-07, in Mega
cities of India. Under this scheme, ward DM plan and City DM plan were prepared.
2.8 Useful Anticipatory Measures of Indian Railway
Looking at the above facts, it is understood that the anticipatory measures of the Railway
department is more efficient. Some important anticipatory measures, which become useful in the city DM plan, are:
Railway Organisation
Preparation of DM
Plans
Preparation of
prepared
disaster
prepared
pared
Periodical review of
drill arrangement
department
cally
related to DM
ment- Nodal
Department for
Compilation/Up-
Ministry office
dating of DM Plans
management work. One project officer appointed by GSDMA is looking after UEVRP
project
Availability of Basic
infrastructure
Availability of
essential items to
Availability of
essential technical
workers in each
area
43
J.G. MACWAN
Control network
Zonal headquarters
information /instruction
Inspection network
as a preventive
action
/Deputy Commissioner.
schedule
commissioner
a part of duty
Services of civil de-
way staff
swimmers, boats,
ment/civic bodies
disaster
handle disaster
outline is given
plan
Availability of
are available
of disaster
grammes related
to DM
DM is made in DM plan
are attached with DM; for example, refresher training, periodical training, periodical medical
examination
Crisis management
plan to handle
hijacking of train
situation
Creation of Disas-
Mitigation funds
funds
Strengthening of
infrastructure to
reduce destruction
due to earthquakes,
floods, etc.
Conclusion
The Indian Railways has well managed DM system. In handling disasters, it is in a unique
position as it has a number of strengths not available with many other departments of
45
J.G. MACWAN
Government of IndiaUniformed force of RPF/RPSF, own medical infrastructure, control
network on each division linked with each station, own communication network, an
army of gangmen spread everywhere in the Railways, civil defense and territorial army
wing , well-planned inspection network from bottom to top level, and full-fledged safety
department with full time safety officer.
On the other hand, the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation or any civic body has very
limited infrastructure to fight against disaster. The DM plan prepared by the Ahmedabad
Municipal Corporation is only meant for natural and some accident-related disasters like
earthquakes, cyclones, floods, industrial/transport-related accident and fire but for other
disasters like terrorist attacks, civil disorders, epidemic diseases, its DM plan is silent because AMC is fully dependent on state and other authorities to handle these disasters.
Moreover, the present DM plan is also not sufficient to handle natural disasters because
detailed duty list of each department and officers at the time of disaster are not prepared.
The city DM plan shows brief actions after occurrence of disaster but preventive actions
are absent. Preventive actions become effective only through well-planned inspection
network; in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, this point is very weak. Overall city
DM plan is prepared but Separate DM plan for each disaster as well as hospital DM plan
to handle disasters is not prepared. Moreover, to handle any disaster, work force and essential staffs are required but as workforce and even nodal officers are not bound to stay
in concerned ward at the time of disaster, they are unable to reach to their duty station.
The only positive aspect of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation is its well-trained fire
brigade staff on which it is fully dependable. Hence, important points of the DM plan of
the Indian Railways should be adopted in the city DM plan to get effective results at the
time of disasters.
Reference:
City Disaster Management plan Ahmedabad city.
Text book no. 15 Technological Disasters (Master of Disaster Mitigation): priya Ranjan Trivedi
Institute of Postgraduate Environmental Education & Research, New Delhi.
Internet resources:
Disaster Management plan of the Indian Railways.
Management in India-A status Report by NDMA.
Gujarat State Disaster Management policy by GSDMA.
Abstract
The task of modelling the distribution of a large number of earthquake events with frequent tremors detected prior to a main shock presents us unique challenges to model a robust classifier tool
for earthquake catalog analysis in different seismic environments. The proposed study evaluates
a machine learning approach to extract attribute-value pairs from earthquake catalog through
event tagging in order to augment databases by representing each precursory foreshock event in a
relational database framework. We have designed using SQLite, a relational database for running a geophysical modeling application after connecting database record of all clusters of foreshock events from (1998-2010) for a complete catalog of seismicity analysis for the Himalayan
basin by Nath et al,2010. In this study, a proposed method of machine learning based database
processing output system (MOPDO) has been made to observe the occurrence of earthquakes
preceded by seismic premonitory patterns as foreshock events occurring prior to mainshocks in
the last 12 years for 5-7 magnitude earthquakes occurring in the Himalayan region. The proposed study has conducted a comprehensive and coherent evaluation through extracting information for a particular set of geographical co-ordinates leading to the spatial discovery of future
earthquake having prior foreshock.This paper proposes a framework for extracting, classifying,
analysing, and presenting semi-structured catalog data sources. The database framework has
been proposed to extract relevant information from different data sources through a classification
based machine learning approach. Among all the decision classifier based models for analysis
of foreshock frequency and subsequent earthquake occurrence, the random forest with bagging
algorithm has an accuracy values of 98.816 per cent correctly classified instances.
47
PUSHAN KUMAR DUTTA, MRINAL KANTI NASKAR, OM PRAKASH MISHRA AND KAJAL MUKHERJEE
Keywords: Catalog, Foreshock, Event tagging, Information extraction, Machine learning, Databases
Introduction
Detecting patterns through text retrieval and analysis is a central part of natural language
processing. Words ending -shocks tend to be earthquakes; observable patterns like text
structure and text frequency happen to correlate with particular aspects of occurrence. The
issue of correlating, integrating and presenting related information to issue early warning to impending natural disasters has become a burning issue in the present millennia.
A multitude of search model framework has been used to seek specific information about
past disaster and their occurrence history generating results which are certain event based
tags about the availability of the desired information. This type of query-based search
can be used to develop a system based on machine learning methods that improves the
acquisition of natural disaster data like earthquake. The study of earthquake occurrencesinvolves analytical insight into the statistical properties of earthquake occurrence extracted from larger database and then performing a series of complete rigorous analytical
classification techniques to get a solution to the future occurrence of earthquake in the
region.Classification of different tremors as foreshock-mainshock-aftershock label in a
database framework as done by Valero et al 2009 involves the task of choosing the correct
class label for a given input. Earthquake data is generally comprised of an ever increasing collection of earth science information catalogs for post-processing analysis available
in spreadsheets and database formats. Analysing seismic activity data by studying the
likelihood of pre-seismic patternsfor foreshock occurrence leads to explanations of the
nature of a future earthquake event. The spatial distribution of foreshocks is predicted to
migrate toward the mainshock occurrence with time by the mechanism of a cascade of
seismic triggering leading to a succession of failures in the tectonic environment (Hough
and Jones,1997). Among proposed anomalous properties are proportion forseismic occurrence of normal to large, medium versus small foreshocks occurrence patterns prior
to earthquake occurrence. In this proposed study, we apply a set of rigorous analytic tests
to the earthquake catalogue to search for complex co-relational seismicity patterns for
foreshock-main shock occurrence in a spatio-temporal location for the Himalayan basin.
For the first time, using a set of rigorous text analytic and machine learning tool like weka
(Witten and Frank, 2005), we have tried to interpret the nature of the foreshock patterns
for an earthquake event to analyse by classifying the earthquakes for a certain patterns
of foreshock occurrence. The components of the proposed database framework include
ALGORITHM FOR INFORMATION RETRIEVAL OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE FROMFORESHOCK ANALYSIS USING RANDOM
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Query Interface (QI), which is used to accept users queries and search catalogs through
users queries; Information Extraction (IE), which is used to extract and classify the data
sets obtained from QI and convert the extracted and classified event tags in classical form
and named Entity Event Tag Recognition Analyzer (ETRA). This ETRA is a classifier that
is used to determine the relevant information extracted from IE.The system applies a traditional machine learning method (check wekadocs) with traditional decision tree techniques studied by Moore;it differs from other previous IE systems asit does not depend on
sophisticated resources but event tag based techniques for natural language processing.
In particular, it only uses lexical features and avoids the usage of complex syntactic attributes. This is precisely the subject of the present work through enhancement of the acquisition process of natural disaster data. The approach of the present problem has been
divided into sections based on study; the next section describes the most recent related
work organised by idea. In section 3, identification of particular features of foreshock data
that are salient to classification and general design of the database framework for classifying the catalog data has been proposed. In Section 4, we give a brief overview of the
robust natural language processing algorithm for a machine learning oriented database
processing output system MOPDO. Finally, result analysis and directions for future work
through development of a relational database framework is presented in Section 6.
Related work
In the present era,quite a few procedures have been made as learning algorithms for
natural language based processing usually with limited success. In particular, representations based on phrases(Dumais et al 1998; Fuernkranz et al 2000), named entities (Kumaran and Allan, 2004), and the term clustering (Lewisand Croft, 1990; Bekkerman,
2003) has been explored. Content-based recommender systems (Burke, 2009) are classifier systems derived from machine learning research has been used in catalog analysis and
text based search queries.Queries that return large numbers of rows are highly inefficient,
and each retrieved entity must be allocated the proper address in the heap. Typically,
good classifiers cannot be learned until the user has rated many items. In this analysis, we
have applied a number of classification techniques for study (Dimov, 2007) using weka
tool to the same dataset for text-based study.
49
PUSHAN KUMAR DUTTA, MRINAL KANTI NASKAR, OM PRAKASH MISHRA AND KAJAL MUKHERJEE
fracture as the fault shift is preceded by the small structural failures we detect as foreshocks. An elaborate study for the global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow
M S 6 and M S 7 mainshocks and M S 5 foreshocks had been done by Reasenberg,2001 to
reveal the process of seismogenesis through differences in foreshock rate found among
subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region (Abercrombie and Mor, 1996) for a region. In the proposed study based on previously recorded
data, input dataset foreshock.arff has been created with four attributes measuring the
spatial coordinates for the earthquake events and its magnitude, and a nominal attribute
for the rate of foreshock occurrence detected for events in the range from 75to 960E
longitude and from 260 to 320N latitude. By stacking many foreshock sequences, a welldefined acceleration of the seismicity preceding mainshocks emerges (Helmstetter, 2003;
Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002). The objectives of this work done are three-fold. First,
we perform an analysis of a 12-year archive of earthquake data in order to extract nature
of foreshock patterns prior to an earthquake event by studying the frequency of tremors
that are not confirmed by analysts as mainshock occurrence. These are foreshocks whose
frequency measures the likelihood of occurrence of catastrophic phenomena.
Figure 1: Pairs of feature sets and labels fed into the machine-learning algorithm to
generate a model during training. During prediction, the same feature extractor is used to
convert unseen inputs to feature sets
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predictive models on data from tagged event libraries within the dataset. We show that
these models are capable of identifying false events produced by the automatic system,
which can be automatically screened out without manual analyst review. We give several
examples of machine learning methods applied to this problem, ranging from simple
methods yielding highly interpretable models, to more elaborate methods whose models
may be more difficult to interpret.
51
PUSHAN KUMAR DUTTA, MRINAL KANTI NASKAR, OM PRAKASH MISHRA AND KAJAL MUKHERJEE
relevant facts to be inserted into a given database (reaching an F-measure of 76 per cent).
It is then a decision learner to train the metadata has been applied in this study. A step by
step analysis for information search and retrieval has been proposed.
Proposed robust natural language processing based algorithm
1. First step in creating a classifier is deciding what features of the input are relevant, and
how to encode those features involving named entity recognition of the word -shock.
2. Create SQLite3 database with python for creating relational database.
3. Creating a classifier to find features of the input are relevant, and to encode those features and corresponding class labels for applying the proposed processing algorithms.
4. Working with large corpora, constructing a single list that contains the features of every instance (eg. foreshocks in Himalaya basin when main shock occurred in latitude
and longitude) that can use up a large amount of memory; for a catalog description;we
begin by constructing a list of the 50 most frequent words in the overall corpus. We
can then define a feature extractor that simply checks whether each of these words is
present in a given document.
5. Defined our feature extractor, we can use it to train a new decision tree classifier
through a list of examples and corresponding class labels.
6. Capture the dependencies between related classification tasks using joint classifier
models by choosing an appropriate labeling for a collection of related inputs. In the
case of event tagging, a variety of sequence classifier models can be used to jointly
choose event-based tags for all the similar records in a given sequence.
7. Subdivide the errors through modeling the linguistic data found in corpora can help
us to understand linguistic patterns, and can be used to make predictions about new
language data for classification of -fore, -main and after.
8. Applying supervised classifiers use labeled training corpora to build models that predict
the label of an input based on specific features of that input. Look for exact match, overlapping, and mutually disjoint for set of tokens saved in the array and Attr (DB). Extract
set of tokens by matching with Sub_Attr (DB) and (ii) extract G_Sub (WP) by matching
with each G_Sub (DB). Identify the index number of Attr (DB) that is matched and
group the extracted attributes and sub-attributes based on the index number.
9. Identify the index number of Attr (DB) that is matched through information extraction for theAttr (WP), Sub_Attr (WP), and value of Sub_Attr (WP) and later identifies
the index of Attr (DB) that is matched.
10. Based on the index number we apply the measured foreshock frequency as high, low,
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and medium.
11. Train the set of meta-learners using weka model using 10 fold cross validation to
evaluate the best classifier model the decision based algorithm to find degree of similarity between instances in the test set and those in the development set.
12. Apply for training data and checked that the random forest with bagging decision
learner has classified the unknown data set as in Figure 2 and serves as the best classifier model as evaluated from comparative results as in Table 1.
Experimental results
In the experiments performed in this work we used the evaluation technique for 10-fold
cross-validation, which consists of randomly dividing the data into 10 equally-sized subgroups and performing different experiments. We separated one group along with their
original labels as the validation set;another group was considered as the test set; from the
remaining data a random selection had been done. The effectiveness of the decision algorithms by studying a series of metrics reveals that random forest with bagging serves as
the best decision tree classifier that will fit in a relational database framework. In Table 1,
we summarise the results for test data attributes and found that found that random forest
using bagging is the best decision based classifier for foreshock analysis.
Random forest
Table 1: Classification algorithms for test data attributes and the identified metrics.
Classifier
MAE
Kappa
CCI %
RMSE
Precision
TP rate
F measure
.179
0.9816
98.506
.2201
.986
Multi classifier
0.4543
0.2083
62.5
0.4967
0.619
0.625
0.612
Jrip
0.4859
0.0022
57.727
0.5776
0.57
0.523
0.512
0.4247
47.17
0.4608
0.222
0.471
0.302
0.4965
0.1924
62.5
0.4965
0.623
0.625
0.598
0.4205
0.1572
57.954
0.6484
0.589
0.58
0.581
Decision table
0.4732
0.1927
63.634
0.4879
0.675
0.636
0.579
Metamulti classifier
0.4732
0.2083
62.5
0.4767
0.619
0.625
0.612
Rep Tree
0.4835
0.0194
55.6818
0.5205
0.525
0.557
0.493
Simple CART
0.5486
-0.2027
45.455
0.5875
0.35
0.455
0.381
53
PUSHAN KUMAR DUTTA, MRINAL KANTI NASKAR, OM PRAKASH MISHRA AND KAJAL MUKHERJEE
Random forests (Breiman and Cutler, 2001) blend elements of random subspaces and bagging in a way that is specific to using decision treesas base classifier. At each node in the
tree, a subset of the available features is randomly selected and the best split available
within those features is selected for that node. Internal estimates, which are obtained using
the out-of-bag examples, can give estimates for the performance on unseen data as well as
estimates for the strength of each tree, and the correlation between trees. The classification
of unseen points is done by voting while bagging is used to create the training set of data
items for each individual tree. The number of features randomly chosen (from n total) at
each node is a parameter of this approach. Each tree gives a vote that indicates the trees
decision about the class of the object. The forest chooses the class with the most votes for
the object. The advantage of random forest over the rest for complete evaluation lies in
accuracy among the current data mining algorithms. Random forest, with Meta bagging,
outperforms other classification trees, as it is computationally effective and offer good prediction performance due to restriction towards over-fitting components compared to other
classification tree models. It runs efficiently on large data sets with many features giving
estimates of what features are important. It has no nominal data problem and does not
over-fit for both balanced and unbalanced data sets. In random forests, there is no need for
cross-validation or a test set to get an unbiased estimate of the test error. Since each tree is
constructed using the bootstrap sample, approximately one-third of the cases are left out
of the bootstrap samples and not used in training. These cases are called out-of-bag (oob)
cases. These oob cases are used to get a run-time unbiased estimate of the classification
error as trees are added to the forest.The dataset for foreshock classification may belong to
multiple categories (i.e. the multi-label problem) there may be possible errors in the manually generated labels of the training sets (i.e., categories) of future tremors likelihood, which
can impact the performance of learning algorithms.Random inputs and random features
produce good results in classification- less so in regression. For larger data sets, we can gain
accuracy by combining random features with bagging.
Bagging
The decision tree for identifying the class attribute for the foreshock occurrence is classified using a voting algorithm. If we have an infinite number of independent training
sets, test instance can be classified and a single answer determined for the majority vote
by means of a bias variance decomposition. Bias is the mean square error expected when
averaging over models built from all possible training sets of the fixed size and variance
is the expected error of single model built from particular training data. The above clas-
ALGORITHM FOR INFORMATION RETRIEVAL OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE FROMFORESHOCK ANALYSIS USING RANDOM
FOREST IMPLEMENTATION IN EARTHQUAKE DATABASE CREATION AND ANALYSIS: A MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH
86
98.8506 %
1.1494 %
0.9819
0.179
0.2201
42.0817 %
47.7606 %
87
55
PUSHAN KUMAR DUTTA, MRINAL KANTI NASKAR, OM PRAKASH MISHRA AND KAJAL MUKHERJEE
tree algorithm reflect actual monitoring system goals. Future work will fall under three
main areasidentification of additional features to help inform categorisation, improved
categorisation algorithms suited for specific task and events, and the use of cost-sensitive
learning to help improve results. The need for a real time dynamic resource description
framework is needed to implement our classification tree. The sharing of virtual servers
updated real time can be used to tag events across different data sets. Machine learning
algorithm can be used to give causal relationships between those features and patterns in
natural language processing can test for statistical inference(Figure 3).
Figure2:Dynamic resource sharing framework for event tagging based on machine
learning approach.
ALGORITHM FOR INFORMATION RETRIEVAL OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE FROMFORESHOCK ANALYSIS USING RANDOM
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References
Abercrombie R.E. and Mor J. , Occurrence Patterns of Foreshocks to Large Earthquakes in the Western
United States, Nature 381, 303- 307; DOI:10.1038/381303a0, 1996.
Bekkerman R., Distributional Clustering of Words for Text Categorization. Masters thesis, Technion, 2003
Bird S., Klein E. and Loper E., Natural Language Processing with Python, (London: Oreilly Publishers,
2009). <http://www.nltk.org/code>, Oreilly Publishers,London.(Viewed on June 07, 2011).
Bouckaert R., Low level information extraction. In Proceedings of the Workshop on Text Learning
(TextML-2002), Sydney, Australia.
Breiman L. and Cutler A., Random forests.Machine Learning, 2001.www.stat.berkeley.edu/~breiman/
RandomForests/(Viewed on March 27,2011).
Burke R R., Hybrid Web Recommender Systems,In P. Brusilovsky, A. Kosba,W. Nejdl,eds.:The Adaptive
Web:Methods and Strategies of Web Personalization.vol.4321 of Lecture Notes in Comp Science.
Springer-Verlag Heidelberg, New York, 2007.
Dimov R., Weka: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques.<www.dfki.de/~kipp/seminar_
ws0607/slides/Dimov_WEKA.pdf>(Viewed on April 28,201)
Dumais S., Platt J., Heckerman D. and Sahami M., Inductive learning algorithms and representations
for text categorization. In CIKM1998.
Fuernkranz J., Mitchell T. and Riloff E., A Case Study in using Linguistic Phrases for Text Categorization
on the WWW. Learning for Text Categorization,AAAI Press.
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no. 5, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.058501.
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Kumaran G. and Allan J., Text classification and named entities for new event detection,SIGIR 2004.
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Moore A.W., Statistical Data Mining Tutorialsslides, March 07, 2011.<http://www.autonlab.org/
tutorials/>viewed
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AAAI Workshop on Machine Learning for Information Extraction,Orlando, Florida, 1999.
Nath S.K., Thingbaijam K.K.S. and Ghosh S.K., Earthquake Catalogue of South Asia - a Generic MW
Scale Framework, 2010.
Peng F., Models Development in IE Tasks - A survey, CS685 (Intelligent Computer Interface) course
project, Computer Science Department, University of Waterloo, 1999.
Reasenberg P.A., Foreshock Occurrence Rates before Large Earthquakes Worldwide, vol.155, no.2-4,
355-379, DOI: 10.1007/s000240050269.
Stevenson M. and Greenwood M.A., Comparing Information Extraction Pattern Models, In
Proceedings of the Workshop on Information Extraction Beyond The Document, Association for
Computational Linguistics, Sydney, 2006, pp.12-19.
Turno J.,
A Concept of a Low-cost
Construction Method for Deep
Underground Dams
Yoshito Kobayashi and Vijay Kumar Jatiya
Abstract
This paper proposes a concept of a new construction method, TEIM, for deep underground dams
with low cost and without using heavy machines. The TEIM consists of three basic processes and
the finish processthe first process makes a working tunnel of small cross section for manual
work, along the full length of the bottom of the planned underground dam wall; the second process is the combination of excavating with a little depth at the roof and infilling with the filler,
which includes low permeable dam wall materials such as fine clay, with the same depth at the
bottom of the working tunnel, and the third process, where the layers of the fillers at the current
step and at previous step are unified by ramming, repeats the second process to make the dam
wall little by little from its bottom to the top while maintaining the original small cross section
of the working tunnel. The final process backfills the working tunnel with soil.
Introduction
There are huge semi-arid regions in the world such as in sub-Saharan Africa, in western
Asia, in northern China, in northeastern Brazil, etc. These semi-arid regions, where huge
amount of water runs off uselessly in rainy season (Jatiya, 2002), can be transformed into
farmland for year-round agriculture by the application of the appropriate water supply
and drainage system, in consideration of desalinisation in case of necessity.
Well, qanat, and underground dams have been available as the utilisation technologies of groundwater resource. Wells can supply small quantity of water flow through the
wholewall, which have not wide area for seeping of groundwater out of the earth in aqui-
59
Figure 1: The status of the construction cost of underground dam and the target
cost of the present method
Figure 1 shows the construction costs of water cut off wall for underground dams
per unit area in relation to their wall depths (ASAL Consultant; Nilsson, 1988; Okinawa
General Bureau). The existing underground dams can be divided into two categories of
the shallow and low-cost type without using heavy machines and the deep and high-cost
type with using heavy machines.
Vast seasonal river areas, which have the impermeable layer deeper than 10 m, have
been left uncultivated in the world.
The aim of this paper is to propose a newly invented method, TEIM (Kobayashi, 2008,
2009), which enables to construct deep underground dams without requiring heavy machines and high-level technologies with low cost in semi-arid regions inremote areas with
using the combination of ancient and novel technologies. The target cost area of the
present method is shown in Figure 1.
61
The TEIM consists of three basic processes and the finish process:
1st Process: A working tunnel of small cross section is excavated along the bottom of
the planned dam wall site.
2nd Process: The combination of the excavating at the roof of the working tunnel with
a little depth and the infilling with the dam wall material at the bottom with the same
depth.
3rd Process: The repetition of the second process to make the dam wall little by little
from the bottom to the top while maintaining the original small cross section of the
working tunnel.
Finish Process: The working tunnel is back filled with soil after completion of dam wall.
Figure 2 show construction with process of TEIM for an underground dam in longitude-sectional view. Figure 2(a) shows the underground dam wall to be constructed
in longitude-sectional view. Vertical shafts are dug at first into impermeable layer at
appropriate intervals at full length of the planned underground dam wall site. Then
approximately horizontal working tunnel, which has the width of around 0.8 m and
the height of around 1.2 to 1.5 m for manual excavation, is excavated through the
bottom points of the vertical shafts along the full length of the bottom of the planned
underground dam wall as shown in Figure 2(b). Vertical shafts are utilised for test
boring to characterise underground geology and hydrology, for carrying away of the
excavated surplus soil, for ventilation, for drainage, etc. Figure 2 (c), (d) show the
second process which comprises the combination of the excavating at the roof of the
working tunnel with a little depth, around 0.1 to 0.2 m, and the infilling with the
filler including the dam wall material at the bottom with the same depth. Figure 2 (e),
(f), (g) show the third process. Figure 2 (g) shows the last stage of the third process,
where the top surface of the filler has reached at the depth equal to the top of the
plannedunderground dam wall. Figure 2 (h), (i) show the finish process, where the
working tunnel is backfilled and a part of vertical shafts are utilised as water supply
wells without backfilling.
Figure 2: Construction process of TEIM for an underground dam in longitude e-sectional view
63
Figure 3: Construction process of TEIM for an underground dam in cross sectional view
Figure 4: Construction process for the multiple-layer structure of underground dam wall
Figure 3 shows the construction processes with TEIM in cross-sectional view in the
case of simple underground dam wall having a single-phase layer, such as compacted fine
clay, with cement when it is affordable. The size and shape of the working tunnel in the
TEIM for manual excavation are chosen similar to those of the qanat tunnel which have
65
67
Figure 7: The combination of an underground dam with the TEIM and a qanat
water in the underground dam and to decrease the saline in the river water, because that
low height check dams series change the river bed configuration from gully, which erode
saline earth with high speed water flow, to flat river bed, where river water flows slowly
without erosion of saline river bed as shown in Figure 8. Low-height check dams having
0.5 to 2 m height can be constructed with piled gabions without applying high technologies with low cost and with the procurable materials in the vicinity.
The multiplicity of low-height check dams, which enable to raise the water level in
the river bed to widen the irrigated farmland with the combination with reservoir ponds,
terraced fields, etc., is effective to lower the total cost in comparison with a single big
dam and to drop the flow speed of river water flow to reduce the damage in flood and
the erosion of soil. The deposition of sediment at the upstream side of the low-height
check dams tends to raise and to flatten the river bed and can increase the quantity of
storage water in the underground dam with adding the water cut off wall at the top of
the underground dam wall with applying the traditional open cut excavation method as
shown in Figure 8(c).
(5) Vertical Desalinisation
In the late rainy season, when the saline of river water decreases and when the land at
69
For making the low permeable layer for water cut off wall of the underground dam,
the TEIM uses the traditional earth ramming technology with mixing lime for carbonation cementation, Ban-zhu technology, which originated in China in 2000 BC (Onitsuka,
2002). The technology has proven the long time durability as shown in the Great Wall.
(2) Minimum Ground Support
From the first process to the finish process of the construction work of the TEIM, the
shape and size of the cross-section of the working tunnel approximately keep its original
small ones. The construction work in the tunnel of the smaller cross section allows using
the lighter-duty ground support system because of the shorter span of its ground support
frame structure. The TEIM uses the light-weight strut supporting structure, which is removable and reusable, for ground support in the working tunnel. The cross section of the
working tunnel having the width of 0.8 m and the height of around 1.2 to 1.5 m, which
are similar to that of qanats, are chosen for manual work in the TEIM to minimise the
needs for the ground support and to utilise the abundant knowledge of qanats.
(3) Deep Wall Dam
In the first process as mentioned above, the working tunnel having a small cross-section
71
Figure 10: Manual work in the working tunnel with the TEIM for
construction of underground dams
73
Figure 12: The time dependency of the capability of the unsupported tunnel in relation to Q Value
75
Figure 13 shows the definition of the factors on the estimation. Table 1 shows the
factors and results on the quantity of storage water and the construction cost on the assumption that the construction cost of the underground dam wall per unit area is equal
to that of a shallow underground dam of hand made with applying the traditional open
cut excavation method as shown in the case 1 and 2. The construction cost of the underground dam wall per unit area with applying the TEIM, which excavates upward at the
roof of the working tunnel where soil tends to fall down with the action of the force of
the gravity in the loosen soil zone mentioned above, may be lower than that with applying the traditional open cut excavation method, which excavates downward at the bottom of the trench against the force of the gravity in the tight soil zone. The case 1 may
cause the problems of salinisationor over wetting the land above the area of the storing
water because the shallow water level induced by its shallow depth of the top of the dam
wall. The case 3 and 4 show the cheaper construction cost per unit volume of the storage
water for the deeper underground dam with applying the TEIM. The investigation on the
geology, hydro-geology and meteorology is necessary to make the plan of underground
dams, such as the selection of the location and the design of underground dams.
Construction, Operation and Maintenance of Deep Underground Dams by
Community Participation
Stakeholders or community participation is an important area that needs special attention for the successful implementation of any development programme. People who live
77
References
ASAL Consultant Ltd., Water Supply by Rural Builders, Water for Arid Land.http://www.waterforaridland.
com/publications/Book8/book8chapter6.asp.
Beaumont P., Qanat Systems in Iran, Bulletin of the International Association of Scientific Hydrology,
XVI, 1. 3, 1971, pp. 39-50.
Carman P.C., Flow of gases through porous media, (London: Butterworths ScientificPublications,
London, 1956).
79
Assessment of Drought
Vulnerability in North Western
Region of Bangladesh
Shams Al-Amin, Umme Salma Rima, and Md. Monsurul Huda
Abstract
North-western region of Bangladesh, commonly known as the Barind Tract, is the largest Pleistocene physiographic unit of the Bengal Basin, which is comparatively at a higher elevation than
the adjoining floodplains. During monsoon, the Barind Tract remains free from flooding; it is
drained by a few small streams. Landscape modification has minimised groundwater recharge
through rainwater, and shifting of the Tista and the Atrai and their distributaries has greatly
influenced the climatic conditions of the area too, turning it into a hot region. This paper presents Aridity Index map of North-western region of Bangladesh for their vulnerability of agricultural drought following UNESCOs (1979) proposed rainfall-evapotranspiration ratio approach.
Through Historical analysis of precipitation and evaporation data over 36 years in the area,
annual rainfall and PET has been calculated. Aridity Index (AI) has been used as a numerical
indicator of the degree of dryness of the climate in the area. Maps have been generated by GIS for
analysing trend of change in precipitation.
Introduction
Increased dryness has long been recognised as a major environmental problem affecting
the living conditions of the people in the affected regions in many countries of the world.
The studies indicated that over the preceding 20 years, the problem of land degradation,
due to increased aridity, had continued to worsen. In the past, dry lands recovered easily
following long droughts and dry periods. Under modern conditions, however, they tend
to lose their biological and economic productivity quickly unless they are managed in a
81
Methodogy
Study Area
The study area (Figure 1) represents the drought prone areas of
Bangladesh, which is the North-western and Central-western
zone of Bangladesh. Increased dryness has long been recognised as a major environmental problem, affecting the living
conditions of the people in these affected regions.
Climate Class
<0.03
Hyper Arid
0.03-0.2
Arid
0.2-0.5
Semi-arid
0.5-0.65
Dry sub-humid
>0.65
Humid
83
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Min
0.57
0.96
0.72
0.60
0.04
1.04
1.07
Max
3.82
3.27
2.80
2.49
3.40
4.07
3.33
Mean
1.40
1.92
1.38
1.48
1.94
2.05
1.79
Std Dev
0.51
0.56
0.42
0.46
0.57
0.62
0.53
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Min
0.90
0.76
0.88
0.68
1.19
0.75
0.61
Max
3.11
3.36
4.07
4.84
4.07
3.91
3.16
Mean
1.62
1.69
1.76
2.01
2.04
1.74
1.70
Std Dev
0.46
0.56
0.65
0.80
0.66
0.54
0.45
85
A.
87
AI
AI
in 1972
in 2007
0.69-1.50
1.37-2.02
Humid
0.69-1.53
1.42-3.16
Humid
1.17-2.04
1.59-2.21
Humid
Humid
0.5-1.42
1.13-1.74
Dry Subhumid
Humid
0.55-0.98
1.15-1.62
Dry Subhumid
Humid
0.83-1.9
1.38-2.31
Humid
1.09-1.45
1.24-2.22
Humid
Humid
0.97-1.31
1.56-1.91
Humid
Humid
0.66-1.09
1.15-1.93
Humid
0.9-1.39
1.15-1.78
Humid
1.72-1.92
0.61-2.17
Humid
[2] 2. Shahid, Chen, Hazarika (2005). Assessing Aridity in Bangladesh using GIS,
Bangladesh, 2005
[3] UNESCO, 1979. Aridity definition (UN documents), UNESCO, New York
Conclusion
An attempt has been made for the mapping of dryness of north-western region of Bangladesh using geographic information system for assessment of vulnerability of drought in
north-western region of Bangladesh. The most recently used model is used for this purpose. The result shows that there exists no climatically dry zone in Bangladesh although
some parts in the western side of the country have AI that is close to dry zone. Deforestation and other environmentally harmful activities in the region might cause a gradual
declination of rainfall, inclination of temperature, and consequent increase of aridity of
the region. If the aridity of the area tends to increase, it might lose its productivity and
become an arid region. Necessary steps should be taken to manage the situation in a sustainable manner
References
Ahmed K.M., Barind Tract, In Banglapedia, S. Islam edited, Asiatic Society of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2003.
http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/B_0309.htm.
89
Introduction
Disaster management (DM) is not only relief and response activities but is also inclusive of
pro-active strategies like preparedness, mitigation, and development of various resources.
A strong need has emerged today for mainstreaming DM into the development goals.
Mainstreaming DM into developmental goals means systematic and more conscious ways
of integrating disaster risk reduction into the development process. In other words, one
needs to see that the process of development and the kind of development choices do not
create or increase the risk of disasters. This has reflected in the recognition that disaster
risk reduction strategies must be addressed as one of the developmental goals. Therefore,
it is of an immediate necessity to develop tools which help effectively in mainstreaming
disaster risk reduction strategies into developmental goals.
In this context, quantifying vulnerability due to the natural disasters is the first necessary step for any serious contemplation of disaster reduction strategies of development
policies. Quantifying vulnerability indicators is an emerging technique, which can systematically assess and analyse vulnerability and risk due to future possible climatic hazards. It can reveal many adverse effects, which are led by climate-induced disasters on
society. Therefore, it helps state as well as society for preparing and adopting adequate
and successful measures for reducing the risk factors. In other words, quantifying vulnerability can show direction for preventing losses. It leads towards preparedness to reduce
recovery time rather than dependence on relief and reconstruction. Therefore, measuring
the vulnerability can help decision-makers in prioritising their intervention for pro-active
91
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
ity remained a challenge for this study. The UNDPs effort dealt with this challenge and
derived relative index of vulnerability at country level in a study entitled Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development. As UNDPs focus is mainly on human well being,
the vulnerability indicators related to socio-economic vulnerability included economic
growth, diversification of economic activities, demographic scenario, health andsanitation, early warning capability, education and knowledge, and human development
index. However, inadequacy in data at country level made the scope of the work carried
out by UNDP very limited in deriving a comprehensive index of vulnerability.
India is also one of the important signatories in Hyogo action plan. The finance commission in India devotes a whole chapter on disaster relief in India from the 6th finance
commission. The 13th finance commission very distinctly addressed this issue by introducing two types of fundsdisaster response fund and disaster mitigation fund (in place
of calamity relief fund). Further, the 11th five-year plan has very clearly called for a strong
action for integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning. The preparation of Vulnerability Atlas (VA) is one of the actions carried out to address the issues of
vulnerability and risk due to natural disasters. The VA considered the vulnerability as
major function of physical condition and structural aspects in a society. Although it has
considered some of the socio-economic variables, the fundamental question has to be
elucidated that whether the characteristic of the vulnerability remain analogous over
space. As the characteristic of vulnerability depends upon a variety of factors, it needs to
be specified on a basis of location. Therefore, it is appropriate to measure the vulnerability
at regional level. In this context, regional vulnerability is the vulnerability of a specified
region incorporating its people, society, economy, ecosystem and environment. Regional
model of vulnerability tries to address the issues related to the development of a region.
As the regional vulnerability looks into its human development, economic growth and
equity, sustainable livelihood, infrastructural development and environmental resources
within the region, it can be useful for administrative planning.
Being one of the forefront states of India, Gujarat has achieved significantly in terms
of economic growth. It recorded the third highest per capita income (Rs. 63,961 or US$
1351) in 2010. Favourable industrial strategies have facilitated the economic growth of
the state in recent decade. At the same time the state is also considered as one of the most
disaster prone states in India. It faces several natural disasters such as droughts, famines,
cyclones, earthquakes and floods. The pace of development put the state more exposed
towards the potential risk due to disaster. The statistics of the disaster scenario in Gujarat
indicates that the state faces a high risk due to various disasters. Therefore, the state has
93
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
of the disaster. These are coefficient of mortality, coefficient of social vulnerability and coefficient of economic vulnerability. The methodology for calculating these coefficients is
adopted from UNDPs approach. The coefficient of mortality is derived by calculating the
total death toll divided by the population of the state. The 2001 data has been selected as
the base year. The coefficient of social vulnerability has been derived by dividing the total
affected people with the total population of the base year. The coefficient of economic
vulnerability is derived by dividing the total damage with the gross domestic product of
the selected base year. Further, the risk also depends on the vulnerability of the region
which is exposed to the selected disasters. Therefore, the vulnerability index is carried out
separately. Vulnerability, by its simple definition, refers to the susceptibility of a person,
group, society, region, or system to any external risk. In this context, the external risk is
in terms of disasters. Although there are number of attempts made to define vulnerability
it lead to the simple meaning explained in above definition. In fact, it is not possible to
define vulnerability precisely. The concept of vulnerability provides flexibility to accommodate a number ofphenomena under it. Therefore the term vulnerability is relative
and explanation of the term depends upon various factors. United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISRD) defines vulnerability as the condition determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors, which increase the susceptibility
of a community to the impact of hazards(UN/ISRD, 2004).
Vulnerability indicators need to be robust, evident, self-expressive, replicable, comparable and easy to understand. The selection of the indicators is a technical challenge.
Based on UNDPs approach and other literature, the indicators are selected. For instance,
Human Development Index is an important indicator of vulnerability which explains
the status of human condition in a given region. This exercise is limited to the indicators
which could be derived based on availability of information at district level in the state
of Gujarat. Some of the indicators are inversely related to vulnerability. For instance,
the area under forest can protect the region and community from the intensive effect of
disasters.
In order to derive the vulnerability index in this paper, various demographic, physical, economic, social and environmental indicators have been identified and clubbed
together. The indicators selected under each category of factors are shown in Table 1.
About 22 indicators have been selected under four major factors, which are responsible
for vulnerability of Gujarat.
95
Indicators
Demographic Indicators
1.
Population Density
Dependency ratio
Poverty rate
Unemployment rates
10
Un-irrigated land
11
12
HDI
13
GDI
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
As the number of indicators is large and overlapping, the principle component analysis was used to reduce the number of indicators and derive the major drivers of vulnerability. The SPSS (Statistical Programme for Social Science) was used for carrying out
principle component analysis. The major aim to use this technique was to reduce the
complexity of information and reduce the observed variables by clubbing them together
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
in a hidden factor which represents the number of variables. The variables were scaled
up in order to compare with each other. The formula used for scaling up remained X = X
-(Mean-2SD)/SD for each data set.
The vulnerability index has been also calculated by giving equal weightage to each
driver of vulnerability. The four major regional drivers of vulnerability derived from the
exercise are exposure to hazards, vulnerable people, vulnerable surrounding, and vulnerable resources. These are explained in detail in the following section.
Annual Probability
Drought
7.5
Flood
20
25
Cyclones
14
17.5
97
Drought
Flood
Cyclone
1921-30
56
1941-50
45
1951-60
17
1961-70
100
1971-80
1348
172
1981-90
2139
1171
1991-2000
1948
3149
2000-03
20
233
Total
20
5,830
4,553
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
death due to drought mainly because of
heat wave along with the drought or suicide due to debt burden in the period of
drought.
Although there in an inconsistency in
data on people affected by various disasters, the overall pattern is very clear showing that the reported number of people
affected by various disasters has increased
sharply over a period of time. Furthermore, the intensity of effects is the highest observed
in the decade of ninety in which the state faced severe negative social implications of
disasters such as flood, drought, cyclone and epidemics.
As far as an adverse economic impact of disasters is concerned, the data
shows that the economic loss due to
various disasters has dramatically increased since 1970. The increase in
decadal loss from 1970s to 1990s is
very high. The economic loss during
1990s is 30 times higher than those
during 1970s. Further, the economic
loss during the years of 2001 and 2002
was around US$ 4.2 million, which is
almost 88 per centof economic loss
due to the damage during 1990s. This indicates the severity of damage is increasing over
a period of time in the state. This confirms the fact that the trend of human suffering and
economic loss is worsening in Gujarat.
Looking from the disaster point of view, Gujarat emerges at global level by an earthquake hit area where earthquake seems to be the most dangerous disaster. Or in other
words, Gujarat is always illustrated as earthquake hit state in the global picture. In fact, the
DM activities started only after the event of an earthquake. However, this does not mean
that other disasters are less dangerous for the state. Comparing the impact of various disasters, cyclones are the worst disasters which have made tremendous economic loss (US$
4.3 million) in the state. This is in spite of the fact that many minor disasters (flood and
cyclones) with less economic impact are not taken into estimation of economic loss.
99
Flood
Cyclone
Drought/Heat Wave
13,463
5,069
685
26.6
10
1.4
25,61,18,523
1,07,33,839
39,11,75,000
5.1
0.2
7.7
19,01,669
43,23,056
6,76,359
12.2
27.7
4.3
It is assumed here that the higher impact of disaster is mainly due to greater intensity.
Table 4 denotes the coefficient of vulnerability. The coefficient of mortality is the highest
for flood, which is followed by cyclone and drought. Paradoxical to this the coefficient of
social vulnerability is the highest for drought and lowest for cyclone. This shows that the
social impact of drought is prevalent in the state. The majority of the rural population
is dependent on rain fed agriculture for their livelihood maintenance in the state. The
drought affects the livelihood of the people at a great extent. It is interesting to note here
that the coefficient of economic vulnerability is the highest for the cyclone. The coastal
area of the state is highly prone to cyclone. Further, the port led economy has developed
the coastal area with higher economic growth. Densely populated and economically well
developed coastal region put the area more exposed to cyclones, and therefore, the probability of economic damage due to cyclone is exponentially high in the state.
Vulnerability Index
As discussed in the earlier section, vulnerability indicators are identified and measured
through principle component analysis. Indicators are the operational representation of
attributes showing qualities or characteristics of vulnerability. Identification of indicators
is carried out by refereeing various studies on disaster indicators. The first step towards
analysis was to club the overlapping indicators and identify the drivers of vulnerability
pattern in Gujarat. The analysis resulted in four major drivers of vulnerability which persuaded the vulnerability pattern in the state of Gujarat. These four drivers are exposure,
vulnerable people, vulnerable surrounding and vulnerable resources. Figure1 represents
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
the conceptual model for all the drivers
of vulnerability. Each driver is explained
here in elaboration.
1. Vulnerable people: The first important driver of vulnerability is vulnerable people. The variable under these
drivers mainly represent the marginalised groups of the society. These
are dependents, percentage of SC/
ST, persons below poverty line, unemployed, female agricultural labour,
destitute,illiterate females. Higher the numbers in these variables make the districtmore
vulnerable. Further lower human development index, gender development index, gender empowerment measure and infant mortality rates are also the variables falling into
this category. These indicators are negative indicators. Lower the values of these indices make the district more vulnerable. The vulnerability explained by these variables
has major role indetermining vulnerability pattern of the state. These variables have
played asignificant role in making backward districts, such as Dahod, Panchamahal,and
drought prone districts, such as Kachchh and Surendranagar more vulnerable.
2. The second driver of vulnerability is named as an exposure which incorporates the
growth of population and economy. Densely populated areas with high industrial
growth and even higher economic growth are more vulnerable. Most of the districts
having higher exposure are located in the coastal areas. For instance, Jamnagar, Rajkot,
Porbanadar, and Amreli.
3. The third set of variables, which shapes the vulnerability, is called vulnerable surrounding. An easy access to basic services for human being provides better surrounding. Lack
of such services makes people of that region more vulnerable towards the selected disasters. The important basic services in this category involve access to drinking water
and sanitation, access to health and education and access to pakka road and electricity.
When disaster strikes, an inadequate access to such basic services drastically increases
the impact of disasters and reduces the chances of survival. These variables have played
major role in determining vulnerability in backward districts such as Dohad, Dangs,
Panchmahal and Surendranagar as well as coastal districts such as Kachchh Jamnagar
and Valsad.
101
Exposure
District
Vulnerable
people
District
Vulner- District
able surrounding
Vulnerable resources
Gandhinagar
15.2
Dohad
26.5
Dohad
16.4
Sabarkantha
15.6
Ahmedabad
14.3
Dangs
24.8
Dangs
15.3
Valsad
15.6
Jamnagar
14.1
Navsari
21.8
Navsari
13.9
Vadodara
14.3
Rajkot
13.2
Panchmahals
21.1
Surendranagar
12.4
Junagadh
14.3
Patan
12.9
Surendranagar
15.0
Panchmahals
11.9
Panchmahals 13.3
Porbandar
10.5
Narmada
13.4
Kachchh
10.0
Patan
12.9
Amreli
10.4
Kachchh
12.6
Jamnagar
9.6
Ahmedabad
12.9
Mehsana
10.2
Vadodara
10.6
Valsad
9.6
Bharuch
12.7
Bhavnagar
8.5
Mehsana
9.1
Vadodara
8.8
Kachchh
11.5
Junagadh
8.0
Banaskantha
8.8
Narmada
8.6
Surat
11.0
Bharuch
7.9
Sabarkantha
8.5
Surat
8.4
Amreli
9.9
Sabarkantha
7.7
Jamnagar
8.0
Bharuch
8.2
Anand
8.9
Banaskantha
7.7
Junagadh
8.0
Junagadh
8.2
ICheda
8.9
Anand
7.5
Valsad
7.4
Bhavnagar
8.1
Porbandar
8.9
Narmada
7.3
Amreli
7.1
Banaskantha
8.0
Narmada
7.9
Vadodara
7.2
Surat
S.I
Mehsana
8.0
Gandhinagar
7.7
Navsari
7.0
Gandhinagar
5.8
Porbandar
7.7
Rajkot
6.9
Kheda
S.8
Bhavnagar
5.2
Anand
6.9
Dangs
6.4
Kachchh
S.8
Bharuch
4.1
Amreli
6.7
Navsari
6.4
Panchmahals
S.7
Kheda
1.8
Sabarkantha
6.5
Mehsana
6.0
Dangs
S.5
Patan
1.4
Kheda
6.3
Surendranagar
6.0
Valsad
S.3
Anand
0.8
Rajkot
5.5
Banaskantha
5.1
Surendranagar
5.5
Porbandar
0.7
Gandhinagar
4.8
Dohad
3.0
Surat
5.1
Ahmedabad
0.2
Patan
4.2
Bhavnagar
2.3
Dohad
3.1
Rajkot
0.1
Ahmedabad
2.3
Jamnagar
1.8
QUANTIFYING DISASTER RISK AND VULNERABILITY AT STATE LEVEL: A CASE OF GUJARAT, INDIA
4. The fourth category derived from the analysis was named as vulnerablere sources of
the region, which make the region more vulnerable towards the selected disasters. The
contributory indicators in this category are degraded forest land, waste land, over used
ground water and deteriorated quality of drinking water sources. The degraded resources
do not support the community livelihood at the time of disaster such as drought, flood
and cyclone and therefore make the people of that region more vulnerable towards disasters. In Gujarat, the poor base of natural resources in Sabarkantha, Valsad, Vadodara,
Junagadhad; Panchmahal put this districts in vulnerable region.
Table 6: Relative vulnerability Index at district level in Gujarat
District
Vulnerability Index
District
Vulnerability Index
Panchmahal s
13.3
Mehsana
8.3
Dangs
13.2
Bharuch
8.2
Dohad
12.3
Patan
7.9
Navsari
12.3
Surat
7.7
Vadodara
10.2
Banaskantha
7.4
Kachchh
10.2
Porbandar
7.0
Surendranagar
9.7
Jamnagar
6.7
Valsad
9.7
Anand
6.1
Junagadh
9.6
Kheda
6.0
Sabarkantha
9.6
Ahmedabad
6.0
Narmada
9.3
Rajkot
4.8
Amreli
8.5
Bhavnagar
4.3
Gandhinagar
8.4
The above analysis clearly indicates that the pattern of vulnerability can be explained
by four major drivers of vulnerability. Therefore, in order to reduce the vulnerability of
the region, it is important to address the drivers of vulnerability. Addressing these drivers can essentially reduce disaster risks by reducing vulnerability. The vulnerability index
derived from these drivers represents the relative position of districts within the state.
Vulnerability index, in this context, helps in prioritising the district for development
planning. The following table presents the vulnerability index.
As far as vulnerability pattern in Gujarat is concerned, the backward districtsPanchmahal, Dangs and Dohadare at higher risk due to disaster. Given a similar hazard scenario within the state, these districts have higher chances of potential losses at the time
103
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