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CHAPTER 6
THE STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
CHAPTER OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES
This chapter discusses the relationship between security-specific factors and the interest rates
on their debt securities. It builds on the material of Chapter 4 which discusses how marketbased factors such as real rates and the inflation rates affect the level of interest rates in the
economy.
The chapter explains the relationship between term to maturity and interest rates and extends
the discussion into the role of the yield curve in the business cycle. Three theories that seek to
explain the shape of the yield cure are identified.
While there are many other variables, these factors affect the yield of a security more
significantly than others. It is important to not only know what these factors are but also how
changes in these factors influence the yield of a security.
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If you are interested in a particular area of finance, such as banking, or any other industry, such as
housing or chemicals, be aware of the several monthly or daily periodicals that you should be reading.
Anticipate the economic conditions of "your" industry in the next two or three years, when you will be
looking for a job and beginning your career. If you think you are studying now, wait until then!
Meanwhile, get ready! Read!
Interest rate changes and differences between interest rates can be explained by several variables.
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
II.
Term to Maturity
Default Risk
Tax Treatment
Marketability
Callability
Relationship between interest rates and term-to-maturity. Term structure may be studied
visually by plotting a yield curve at a point in time.
1.
2.
A graphical plot of yield vs. maturity for securities that are similar in all other
aspects is called the yield curve.
A yield curve is a smooth line which shows the relationship between maturity and a
security's yield at a point in time.
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3.
4.
B.
C.
D.
3.
The slope of the yield curve reflects investors' expectations about future interest
rates.
a.
An ascending yield curve is formed when interest rates increase
with maturity. Such yield curves are also called Normal Yield Curves.
According to the expectations theory, an ascending yield curve reflects
expectations of increasing interest rates in the future.
b.
Descending yield curves imply that short-term rates are higher
than long-term rates. These curves are inverted yield curves and reflect
expectations of lower interest rates in the future.
c.
A flat yield curve implies that interest rates are expected to be
stable in the near future.
4.
Long-term interest rates represent the geometric average of current and expected
future (implied, forward) interest rates. Forward rates (which are expected future
rates) may be calculated by observing two spot interest rates of differing
maturity.
Long-term securities have (a) greater price variability and (b) less marketability
than short-term securities. Consequently, investors require a premium for
investing in less liquid securities.
2.
Liquidity may be a more critical factor to investors at one point in time relative to
another. As a result, liquidity premiums change over time!
4.
Since the liquidity premium increases with maturity, it causes the observed market
yield curve to be more upward sloping than that predicted by the expectations theory.
5.
The liquidity premium suggests a more upward sloping yield curve than that
predicted by the expectations theory. It means that the liquidity premium theory
can explain why the yield curve slopes upward most of the time.
58
Maturity preferences may affect security prices, explaining variations in yields by time.
1. Investors (lenders) and borrowers (issuers) choose securities with maturities that satisfy
their forecasted cash needs. As a result, the yield curve is determined by the supply of
and the demand for securities at or near a particular maturity.
E.
2.
3.
Under this theory, investors will not shift out of their preferred maturities even if
offered higher yields.
4.
5.
The segmentation theory can explain twists, spikes, and discontinuities in the
yield curve, while the preferred habitat theory explains why the yield curve is
usually a smooth line without discontinuities.
F.
2.
G.
The current and expected slope of the yield curve is important to FIs that bear
maturity intermediation risk.
Depository institutions traditionally did well in periods with positively sloped
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yield curves - borrow short (deposits) and lend long (mortgages) at a higher rate.
III.
Default risk: Differences in interest rates may be explained by relative levels of default risk.
A.
B.
Default risk is the probability of the borrower not honoring the security contract.
1.
Losses may range from "interest a few days late" to a complete loss of principal.
2.
Investors require a default risk premium (above risk-free or less risky securities) for
added risk assumed.
1.
2.
3.
C.
Default risk premiums increase (widen) in periods of recession and decrease in economic
expansion.
1.
2.
D.
In good times, risky security prices are bid up; yields move nearer those of riskfree securities.
With increased economic pessimism, investors sell risky securities and buy
"quality," widening the DRP.
Credit rating agencies measure and grade relative default risk among DSUs and their
securities.
1.
2.
3.
IV.
DRP = i - irf
The default risk premium (DRP) is the difference between the promised or
nominal rate and the yield on a comparable (same term) risk-free security
(Treasury security).
Investors are satisfied if the default risk premium is equal to the expected default
loss.
Cash flow, level of debt, profitability, and variability of earnings are indicators of
default riskiness.
As conditions change, rating agencies alter ratings of businesses and
governmental debtors.
Bonds in the top four rating categories Aaa to Baa (Moodys) or AAA to BBB
(S&Ps) are called investment grade bonds. Bonds rated below Baa or BBB are
called speculative grade ( or junk) bonds.
Tax Treatment: The taxation of security gains and income affects the yield differences among
securities. Investors are interested in their after-tax return on investments.
A.
The after-tax return, iat, is found by multiplying the pre-tax return by one minus the
investors marginal tax rate.
iat = ibt (1-t)
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B.
Municipal bonds issued by state and local governments are usually exempt from federal
income taxes.
C.
V.
Marketability - The costs and speed with which investors can resell a security.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Cost of trade
Physical transfer cost
Search costs
Information costs
B.
Securities with good marketability have higher prices (and demand) and lower
yields. This is because higher marketability lowers the risk to investors.
VI.
An option is a contract provision which gives the holder the right, but not the obligation,
to buy, sell, or convert an asset at some specified price within a defined future time
period.
B.
A call option permits the issuer (borrower) to call (redeem) the obligation before
maturity.
1.
2.
3.
C.
A put option permits the investor (lender) to sell the bond or terminate the contract at a
designated price before maturity.
1.
D.
CIP = ic - inc
A callable bond, ic, will be priced to yield a higher return (by the CIP)
than a similar non-callable, inc bond.
Investors are likely to "put" their security or loan back to the borrower during
periods of increasing interest rates. The difference in interest rates between
putable and non-putable contracts is called the put interest discount (PID).
a.
PID = ip - inp
b.
The yield on a putable bond, ip, will be lower than the yield on a similar
non-putable bond, inp, by the PIP.
A conversion option permits the investor to convert a security contract into another
security, usually common stock.
1.
2.
Convertible bonds generally have lower yields, icon, than non-convertibles, incon.
The conversion yield discount (CYD) is the difference between the yields on
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3.
62
VII.
Co-movement of Interest Rates - Interest rates tend to move up and down together.
A.
Securities of varying maturity, default risk, and contract provisions tend to have some
substitutability among investors.
B.
COMPLETION QUESTIONS
1.
Expectations of future interest rates may explain why interest rates vary by _______________.
2.
An ascending yield curve reflects investors' expectations that future short-term interest rates will
be _______________.
3.
4.
A ____________ premium may be added by investors in order for them to purchase long-term
bonds.
5.
When securities of varied terms are not acceptable substitutes for investors and institutions in the
short run, the _________ __________ theory may explain the shape of the yield curve.
6.
The default risk premium on a corporate bond may be computed by subtracting the yield on a
____________ bond from that of the ____________ bond.
7.
An increase in the required default risk premium of a security will lead to a(n) _______________
in the price of the security.
8.
9.
10.
A
option is an option of the lender to sell the security back to the issuer; a
option of the borrower to pay off the debt.
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_ option is an
TRUE-FALSE QUESTIONS
T
1.
F
2.
Treasury and corporate security yields may be plotted together
when generating a yield curve.
F
3.
One area of expectations affecting yields by maturities is
anticipated inflation.
F
4.
The expectations theory states that long-term rates represent the
market estimate of the average of current and future short-term rates.
F
5.
If interest rates are expected to increase in the future, one would
expect to see an upward sloping yield curve
F
6.
According to the preferred habitat theory, investors may move
out of their preferred maturities in response to expected yield premiums.
F
7.
The default risk premium compensates the holder of the risky
security for the risk assumed.
F
8.
Liquidity premiums cause an observed yield curve to be less
upward sloping than that predicted by the expectations theory
F
9.
The higher the marginal tax bracket of the investor, the less the
attraction of municipal bonds.
F
10.
Bonds with call options are likely to have lower yields than noncallable bonds.
MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS
1.
a.
b.
c.
d.
a.
b.
c.
d.
2.
64
3.
Applying the expectations theory, a bank depositor has the option of purchasing a one-year CD at
7 percent and a 9 percent two-year CD. If indifferent between the two, the depositor must expect
one-year CDs one year from now to have a rate of
a.
8 percent.
b.
11 percent.
c.
slightly over 11 percent.
d.
12 percent.
4.
The yield differentials between a AAA corporate bond and a BAA corporate bond of the same
maturity may be explained by
a.
marketability.
b.
tax treatment.
c.
default risk.
d.
term to maturity.
5.
7.43%
9.25%
7.12%
3.50%
6.
The slope of the yield curve for U.S. Treasury securities indicates
a.
declining interest rates in the future.
b.
increasing interest rates in the future.
c.
increasing prices on U.S. Treasuries in the future.
d.
constant interest rates in the future.
7.
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8.
9.
The yield difference between the corporate and municipal bond may be best explained by the fact
that
a.
the muni has lower default risk.
b.
the capital gain income on a municipal bond is tax-free.
c.
the interest income on each is federal tax exempt.
d.
the interest income on the municipal bond is federal tax exempt.
10.
Which of the following bonds probably has the highest call premium included in its yield?
a.
a low coupon, short-term corporate note in an increasing rate market
b.
a high coupon rate bond in a falling interest rate market
c.
a high coupon rate bond in a rising interest rate market
d.
a low coupon rate bond in an increasing interest rate market.
11.
A downward sloping yield curve indicates that future short-term rates are expected to ______ and
outstanding security prices will _______.
a.
fall; rise.
b.
fall; fall.
c.
rise; rise.
d.
rise; fall.
12.
Suppose we consider a yield curve that has taken into consideration both the expectations theory
and the liquidity premium theory. Assume the yield curve is initially downward sloping. If
liquidity premium theory is no longer important, the yield curve you would expect to see would
be:
a.
more steeply downward sloping
b.
more upward sloping
c.
less steeply downward sloping
d.
none of the above.
13.
According to expectations theory, an investor who believes that interest rates are likely to
decrease in the near future would
a.
would invest in short-term securities immediately.
b.
would invest in long-term securities immediately.
c.
would sell long-term securities from her portfolio.
d.
would sell short-term securities from her portfolio.
14.
According to expectations theory, if the market believes that interest rates are expected to
increase in the near future,
a.
borrowers would immediately increase their supply of short-term securities.
b.
investors would immediately increase their demand for long-term securities.
c.
borrowers would immediately increase their supply of long-term securities.
d.
neither borrowers nor investors would do anything until the interest rates actually
increased.
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15.
According to expectations theory, if the market believes that interest rates are likely to decrease
in the near future, it would lead to:
a.
b.
c.
d.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
A)
B)
t nk
where t+n-kfk =
fk
1 t rn n
1 t rnk nk
1/ k
Rn =
actual observed interest rate at time t for an n period security (years to maturity)
67
Example: An investor is interested in purchasing one of the following government bonds, each of which
yields (annual compounding):
Term
2 year
5 year
Market Yield
6.50%
7.25%
Should the investor buy the two- or five-year bond? Of course it depends on what interest rates will be
two years from now. A $100 investment in the five-year bond will yield (1.0725) 5 = $141.90 in five
years. Purchase of the two-year bond would give the investor (1.065) 2 = $113.42 at the end of the two
years and the need to reinvest the proceeds for three more years. At what rate does he need to reinvest to
accumulate a sum of $141.90 by the end of the fifth year? We need to solve for the three-year forward
rate, two years from now, that allows a $113.42 investment to grow to $141.90. Or, what are expected
three-year rates two years from now as revealed by the current yield structure of interest rates?
Using our formula above where k = 3,
1 t r5 5
t 2 f 3
2
1 t r2
1/ 3
1.07255
1
2
1.065
1/ 3
1.4190
1
1.1342
1/ 3
1 7.75%
The expected one-year interest rate two years from now is 7.75 percent. Investing $113.42 at 7.75 percent
for three years equals $141.90 at the end of five years. This is the same as the total return from the fiveyear bond (1.0725)5 = $141.90. The three-year forward rate of 7.75 percent is the forecasted or expected
three-year rate two years from now as indicated by today's actual market rates.
Assignment:
1)
In July 2002 the yield curve for U.S. Treasury securities was the following:
Treasury
3 month
6 month
9 month
1 year
2 year
3 year
4 year
5 year
6 year
7 year
Yield
1.71%
1.73%
1.73%
1.83%
2.60%
3.18%
3.59%
3.90%
4.09%
4.36%
Calculate the implied one-year forward (expected) rates over the next six years. What are the
expectations of future one-year rates one, two, three, four, five, and six years from July, 2002? How
accurate was the market in predicting interest rates for the next few years?
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2)
Calculate the expected 90-day (3-month) rates 3 months, 6 months, and 9 months from now using
the rates above. (Hint: Use the same formula, but with fractions of the year: 1/4 for 3 months,
2/4 for 6 months, etc.; then annualize when finished.) Prove your answers.
3)
Bond Rating Changes. From a recent issue of Standard and Poor's Credit Week or Moody's The
Bond Record, what corporate security ratings have been changed recently and why? These two
sources are excellent sources for keeping in touch with changes in default risk as assessed by two
important rating services.
69
term or maturity
2.
higher
3.
short; short
4.
liquidity
5.
market segmentation
6.
Treasury; corporate
7.
decline
8.
widen; narrow
9.
after
10.
put; call
2.
3.
Inflation expectations affect both the level and slope of the yield curve.
4.
5.
T
Investors expecting rates to go up will invest in short-term securities and shun
long-term securities. This drives up the price of short-term securities and its yield down.
At the same time long-term securities prices decrease driving up its yield.
6.
F
If yields increase sharply, security prices must be falling, indicating a movement
away from a maturity range - market segmentation.
7.
T
Default risk premiums reflect the market's expected default losses from a large
portfolio of securities of similar risk.
8.
F
Liquidity premiums actually cause the slope of the yield curve to be more
upward sloping because liquidity premiums increase with maturity.
9.
F
The higher the marginal tax bracket, the greater the after-tax return compared to
other taxable bonds.
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10.
F
Investors demand a yield premium if the borrower has an option to terminate
their investment, usually when rates are low.
a.
Term structure of interest rates describes the relationship between maturity and
yield for similar securities.
c.
A graphical plot of yield vs. maturity for securities that are similar in all other
aspects is called the yield curve.
c
The two-year CD available at 9 percent represents the geometric average of
current one-year CDs at 7 percent and an estimated one-year rate one year from now of
slightly more than 11 percent.
Llet X equal the t+1f1, or one-year forward rate one year from today.
1.09 =
(1.07) (X)
X = 11.04%
The geometric mean is a more accurate average with compound interest rates or growth
rates than an arithmetic mean.
4.
The ratings on the bond refer to relative default risk between the securities.
5.
Investors will pay less, requiring a higher yield on a bond with a call option.
6.
b
The upward sloping yield curve reflects the market expectation of higher shortterm rates in the future.
7.
a
The difference between a risk-free ten-year (holding maturity constant) and a
risky corporate bond.
8.
d
A yield of 6.57 percent on the one-year bill less the expected loss in purchasing
power of 3.5 percent.
9.
10.
b
The high coupon bond in a falling rate market has the best chance of being
called, thus investors want added returns for added call risk.
11.
a.
A descending yield curve forecasts lower rates possibly related to slower
economic growth or lower inflation rates. Investors demand for short-term securities will
decline driving down their prices.
71
12.
a.
The removal of liquidity premiums will decrease the yield at every maturity making the
yield curve to be more steeply downward sloping
13.
b.
Investors wanting to lock in on the current higher rates would invest in long-term
securities immediately.
14.
c.
To avoid higher rates, borrowers would immediately increase their supply of long-term
securities
15.
b.
Investors wanting to lock in on the current higher rates would invest in long-term
securities immediately leading to an increase in the demand for long-term securities.
72
The expected one-year rate three years from July, 2002, using the forward rate calculator:
t 3 f1 =
(1.0359 )4
(1.0318 )3
2.
The expected 90-day (three months) rate three months (one quarter) from today is
t 0.25
f 0.25 =
(1.0173 )0.5
-1
(1.0171 )0.25
1.00861
.5 = (1.00435 ) - 1
Proof: (1.0171).25 (1.0175).25==1.0
(1.0173)
0425. Investing for six months (0.5 exponent) at 1.73%
annualized is equivalent to investing in a three-month or one-quarter (0.25 exponent) rate of
1.71% followed by another quarter at 1.75%.
= 1.75%( annualized)
73