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Maths Unit 1
QS025 Chapter 8 Probability
Chapter 8 Probability
Learning Outcomes
8.1 Probability
a) Understand the concept of experiments,
outcomes, sample spaces, events and
random selections.
b) State the basic laws of probability.
c) Find the probability of an event.
d) Determine the probabilities of the
intersection and the union of two events.
e) Determine the conditional probability and
identify independent events.
f) Use of Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and
table of outcomes to solve probability
problems.
S {
Now, we set some conditions for event A, B and
C.
A is the event number is greater than 4 .
B is the event the number is odd .
C is the event the number is a prime number .
Lets observe
Example 1
List the sample space when two dice or a die is
tossed twice.
Experiment 1
Find the sample space for tossing a coin and a die.
1st of all, lets look at the outcomes of a die and a
coin.
Outcomes is the result of a single trial of an experiment.
Tossing a coin can result in {Head(H), Tail(T)}.
Tossing a die can result in six different outcomes
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment (Usually denoted by S).
In the experiment tossing a coin and a die, the
sample space is the list of 12 pairs of values which
you can observe in the table below.
H
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
(H,1) (H,2) (H,3) (H,4) (H,5) (H,6)
(T,1) (T,2) (T,3) (T,4) (T,5) (T,6)
Experiment 2
Three fair coins are tossed, so write down the
sample space S of the experiment.
Let H be head and T be tail. Then the sample space
is given by
Example 3
If a family has six children, find the probability that
all the children are (a) girls, and (b) boys.
Solution
1
.
6
P( A)
n( A)
n( S )
Example 2
A fair die is tossed. The sample space is
S {1,2,3,4,5,6} . If A is the event the number is
greater than 4, B is the event the number is odd,
then C is the event the number is a prime number.
Find the probabilities for events A, B and C .
Solution
Example 4
A five-digit number is to be formed from digits 2, 3,
5, 7 and 9, and repetitions are not allowed.
(a) What is the probability that the number is
an even number?
(b) What is the probability that the number is
an odd number?
(c) What is the probability that the number is
greater than 60000?
Solution
Example 6
Mazni has a set of seven cards numbered 1 to 7. A
card is drawn randomly from the set of cards. Find
the probability that the number drawn is
(a) 7
(b) not 7
Solution
Solution
A S
0 n( A) n( S )
1.Complementary Event
0
n( A) n( S )
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
S
A
A
Let A be the event A does not occur, and S the
sample space. Then
P( A ) 1 P( A)
A is called the complementary of an event A. It
can also be denoted as A' or A c .
P( A ) 1 P( A)
n( A ) n r
r
1 1 P( A)
n( S )
n
n
Therefore, we have
0 P( A) 1
Example 7
In a sample of 40 female students, 18 had type O
blood, 14 had type A blood, 6 had type B blood and
2 had type AB blood. A student is randomly
selected. Find the probability that the student
selected had
(a) type O blood
(b) type A blood
(c) neither of type O nor type A
Solution
More examples
Example 10
Two dice are tossed, find the probability
(a) the sum of two numbers is 8
(b) the sum of two numbers are prime numbers
Solution
Example 11
Three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously.
Find the probability of getting
(a) exactly two heads
(b) at least two heads
(c) at most one head
Solution
EXERCISES
1. On a single toss of one die, find the
probability of obtaining
a) a number 4
Answer:
1
6
Answer:
1
2
b) an odd number
c) an even number
Answer:
1
2
1
2
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
Where
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
1
3
De Morgan Rule
3
Answer:
28
b) is in either a sports team or the school
band
Answer:
19
28
Answer:
19
28
P( A B' ) P( A) P( A B)
P( A' B) P( B) P( A B)
Try to use Venn Diagram to illustrate the formulae above.
1
,
3
5
1
and P(A B) = . Find
9
6
P(A B)
P(A B ' )
P( A ' B ' )
P( A ' B ' )
Example 14
Probabilities of events C and D are such that
Example 15
A club consists of 80 members. 50 are females and
30 are males. Fifteen of the females wear glasses
while 10 of the males wear glasses. If a member is
selected at random, what is the probability the
selected person is a male or is wearing glasses.
Solution
Example 16
A and B are two events in the same sample space S.
If P( A) 0.3 , P( B) 0.8 , and P( A B) 0.2 ,
1
1
1
, P( D) , and P(C D) , find
9
3
9
P(C D) .
find
(a) P( A B)
Solution
(c) P( A B)
P(C )
(b) P( A )
(d) P( A B )
Solution
Example 19
A survey is conducted on a group of workers
comprising production operators, administrative
officers and security guards. The survey is to
determine the total working hours in a week.
Production
operator
Administrative
officer
Security
guard
< 40 hours
63
21
88
50 70 hours
46
14
10
70
> 70 hours
87
17
112
196
43
31
Example 18
Records showed that 80% of all Malaysia citizen
are smokers. 17% of the citizen have lung cancer,
with 13% who are smoker and have lung cancer. If
a Malaysia citizen is randomly selected, what is the
probability that the person is smoker or have lung
cancer?
Solution
Solution
EXERCISE
Example 21
Three red marbles, four yellow marbles and two
green marbles are arranged in one row on a table.
Find the probability
(a)
(b)
(c)
Solution
5
7
blue or green
Answer :
4
11
c)
not red
d)
Answer : 1
green or red
Answer :
e)
2
7
3
7
P( A B) P( A) P( B)
This is commonly referred to as addition law of
mutually exclusive events.
P( E1 E2 ... En ) P( E1 ) P( E2 ) ... P( En )
Example 22
Dermine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not when a dice is rolled.
(a) Getting 3 and getting 6.
(b) Getting an even number and getting an odd
number.
(c) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a
number less than 3.
(d) Getting an even number and getting a number
greater than 4.
Example 23
A developer has 3 red houses, 5 green houses, and
6 yellow houses. If a customer randomly selects a
house, find the probability that it will be either a red
or a yellow house.
Solution
Example 24
A ball is drawn from a box containing 7 yellow
balls, 5 black balls, and 8 green balls. Determine
the probability that it is
(a) Yellow
(b) Black
(c) red
(d) yellow or green
(e) not green
(f) neither yellow nor green
Are events drawing a yellow ball and drawing a
black ball mutually exclusive?
Example 27
1
a statistics course is
and the
8
1
. What is the probability he will get a grade
16
better than D?
(a) P(E F)
(b) P( E F)
Solution
Solution
Example 28
Example 26
C and D are two events where P(C) = 0.1, P(D) =
0.2 and P(C D) = 0.3.
(a)
Determine whether C and D are two
mutually exclusive events.
(b)
Find P(D' ) and P(C 'D' ) .
Solution
Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events in a sample space S, the
conditional probability of A, given that B has
occurred is the probability that A occurs, given that
B has occurred. This conditional probability is
denoted by P( A B) .
For two events A and B with P( A) 0 and
P( A B)
P( A B)
P( B)
P( A B)
Similarly,
P( B A)
P( B A)
P( A)
P( B A)
Example 29
Example 31
In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed, 15%
of the students are curly haired and 3% are both
left-handed and curly haired.
(a)
Independent Events
PA B P( A)
Solution
PB A P( B)
And P( A B) P( A) P( B)
Similarly, if events A, B and C are independent,
then
P( A B C ) P( A) P( B) P(C )
Relationship between mutually exclusive events and
independent events
If A and B are mutually exclusive events when
P( A) 0, P( B) 0 , then P( A B) 0 and
P( B A) 0 .
This is because for mutually exclusive events,
P( A B) 0 .
Thus,
Example 35
Events R and T are such that P( R) 0.4 ,
P(T ) 0.2 and P[( R T ' ) ( R'T )] 0.25 .
(a)
Find P( R T ) .
(b)
Determine if R and T are independent.
Solution
Solution
Example 34
Three balls are drawn successively from a box
containing 5 green balls, 3 white balls and 4 blue
balls. Find the probability that they are drawn in the
order green , white and blue if each ball is
(a) replaced
(b) Not replaced
Solution
Example 36
A Mathematics puzzle is given to three students,
Anand, Balqis and Chua. From the past experience,
known that the probabilities Anand, Balqis and
Chua will get the correct solutions are 0.65, 0.60
and 0.55 respectively. If three of them attempt to
solve the puzzle without consulting each other, find
the probability that:
(a) the puzzle will be solved correctly by all of
them
(b) only one of them will get the correct solution.
Solution
Example 37
The probability that Sofea is late for college on any
day is 0.15 and is independent of whether she was
late on the previous day. Find the probability that
she
a)
is late on Monday and Tuesday
b)
arrives on time on one of these days
c)
arrives on time on Tuesday knowing that
she was late on Monday
Solution
Example 38
A college buys printers from three different
companies F, G and H. The college buys 50% of
the total number of printers from company F, 40%
from Company G and 10% from Company H. The
percentages of defective printers supplied by
Company F, Company G and Company F are
respectively 5 %, 3% and 2%.
(a)
If a printer is selected at random, what is
the probability the printer is defective?
(b)
If a printer is found to be defective, what is
the probability that it is supplied by
(i) Company F?
(ii) Company H?
Solution
Miscellaneous Examples
Example 40
A computer laboratory has three printers X, Y and
Z which print at different speeds. Programs are
routed to the first available printer. The
probabilities that a program is routed to printer X,
Y and Z are 0.45, 0.35 and 0.20 respectively.
Sometimes, a printer will jam and destroy a printout.
The probability that X, Y and Z will jam are 0.02,
0.04 and 0.03 respectively. Adnans program is
destroyed when printer jams. What is the
probability that
(a)
Printer X is involved?
(b)
Printer Y is involved?
(c)
Printer Z is involved?
Solution
Example 43
A committee is formed to investigate bribery in a
ministry. The committee is picked from nine ACA
staff and four from NGOs. Find the probability that
a)
b)
Example 42
There are 60 students in a certain college, 27 of
them are taking Mathematics, 20 are taking Biology
and 22 are taking neither Mathematics nor Biology.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected
student takes
i)
both Mathematics and Biology.
ii)
Mathematics only.
(b) A student is selected at random. Determine
whether the event taking Mathematics is
statistically independent of the event taking
Biology.
Solution
c)
Solution
Mathematics
Statistics
UKM
UPM
USM
80
50
40
50
65
70
a)
b)
c)
Computer
Science
30
40
25
EXERCISES
1. A card is chosen at random from a set of
twenty-five cards numbered from 1 to 25.
What is the probability that the card chosen
is a multiple of 4, given that it is greater
than 15?
Answer :
3
10
Solution
3. A box contains eight milk chocolates and
seven plain chocolates. Aishah chooses a
chocolate at random and eats it. She then
chooses another chocolate.
Find the probability that :
a) the first chocolate is a milk
chocolate
b) the first chocolate is a milk
chocolate and the second is a plain
chocolate
c) the two chocolates are different
( one plain and one milk)
Answer: a)
8
4
8
; b)
; c)
15
15
15