ANN Techniques for Power Consumption Forecasting

Constantin Barbulescu, Stefan Kilyeni, Attila Simo, Oana Pop, Cosmin Oros, Raluca Schiopu, Antheia Deacu
Power Systems Department
Politehnica University of Timisoara
Timisoara, Romania
constantin.barbulescu@et.upt.ro
Abstract The authors are focusing on developing a software tool
designed for power consumption forecasting based on artificial
neural networks (ANN). The hourly and peak consumed power and
daily load curves are forecasted. The backpropagation algorithm
is presented within the paper. Also, some practical considerations
are highlighted, necessary to be known to develop a real application.
The base propagation algorithm is completed with conjugated
gradient and parabolic interpolation. A software tool has been
developed in Matlab environment. The results are compared with
the ones provided by classic forecasting methods. The analyses
and the corresponding conclusions highlight the fact that the ANN
based forecasting algorithm has a better behaviour.
Index Terms ANN, backpropagation, consumed power, daily load
curve, forecasting.

I.

INTRODUCTION

The consumer plays the most important role within the

electric network. Nowadays, the worldwide power systems
are passing through the deregulated power market conditions.
The consumed power random evolution represents one of its
characteristics [1]. Thus, new tools are necessary to be developed
having as a goal to forecast the consumed power evolution.
Few years ago the authors have worked on classic forecasting
methods and probabilistic consumer modelling [2].
Currently the use of artificial intelligence techniques has
come in the forefront. Within this field, the authors are focusing
on artificial neural networks (ANN). The paper aims to present
an application related to ANN applied for power consumption
forecasting.
Three applications are synthesized. Firstly, the daily load
curve is forecasted. It is followed by the hourly and peak
consumed power forecasting [3]. Real data have been used
for ANN training (provided by the power distribution system
operator), in each case. To prove the developed algorithm
efficiency, all the results are compared with the ones provided
by the classic forecasting methods. Better results are obtained
in case of ANN based forecast [4]-[6].
Within the literature there are several approaches dealing
with test data [3], [7] but also applications that are referring to
real cases [8]. There are also approaches focusing on combining
two artificial intelligence methods, such as ANN and fuzzy
logic [9], [10].

Following the introduction already presented, the 2nd section

is focusing on presenting the ANN based forecasting mechanism.
The results provided by the developed algorithm are discussed
within the 3rd section. 4th section synthesizes the conclusions.
II.

ANN BASED POWER CONSUMPTION FORECASTING

In the following the ANN backpropagation algorithm is

presented. The classic algorithm is completed with conjugated
gradient and interpolation for convergence acceleration.
1
has been used by the
The sigmoid function F ( x )
1 e x
authors as activation function.
1. Input data: number of neurons for the input (n), hidden (nh)
and output (no) layers, training ANN set (t), learning rate
(), precision (), maximum number of iterations, known
output (y0) [11].
2. Initialization: weights between the input hidden layers (w1),
respectively hidden output layer (w2), gradients corresponding to the two weights.
3. Step k compute weighted inputs' sum for the neurons belonging to the hidden (sh, yh) and output (s, y) layers:
n

yh kj f ( xi w1k 1 ),
ij

i 1

nh

y kj f ( xij w2k 1 ),
ij

i 1

j 1, nh

(1)

j 1, no

(2)

4. The epoch error (Ee) is computed:

Eeik ( y 0i yik 1 ) 2 , i 1, no
(3)
5. Backward step: gradients for the neurons belonging to the
output (o) and hidden (h) layers are computed.
k 1

ok
i

e si
(1 e

sik 1 2

Eeik , i 1, no

(4)

ss k , i 1, nh

(5)

k 1

kh
i

e shi
(1 e

shik 1 2

where: ss k ss k 1 ok w2k 1 , j 1, no .
j

ij

6. Adjusting step: weights' gradients between the input hidden

layers (gwih) and hidden output layers (gwho) are updated:
k
gwih
ij

k 1
gwih
kh
ij
i

t j ; i 1, nh, j 1, n

ij

Steps 3-6 are repeated for each pattern within the ANN
training set.
7. Conjugated gradient method:

gwihk ij
nh n

k
ih

i 1 j 1
nh n

i 1 j 1

k
gwho
ij

kho

i 1 j 1
nh n

i 1 j 1

(9)

k 1 2
gwho
ij

8. Weights' direction (input hidden layers and hidden output

layers) is computed:

h 3 Ee0 4 Eeh Ee2h

2 Ee0 2 Eeh Ee2h

(12)

11. Quantities specified at step 9 are recomputed for each pattern

within the ANN training set for optim .
12. The computing process is repeated iteratively until the computed error is below the imposed error or the maximum
iteration number is reached.
The presented algorithm has been implemented in Matlab
environment. No Matlab toolboxes have been used.
III.

(8)

k 1 2
gwih
ij

no nh

optim

(6)

k
k 1
gwho
gwho
ok yh kj ; i 1, no, j 1, nh (7)
ij

10. Optimum is computed:

RESULTS. DISCUSSIONS

A. Daily load curve forecasting

The software tool has been developed in Maltab environment
for ANN based daily load curve forecasting. The data have been
obtained from the power delivery operator, for a 10 years period.
The same day, from each year during the period 1999-2008
has been selected. The daily load curve forecasting is going to
be performed for the next 3 years (2009, 2010, 2011).
The daily load curves' plot is presented in Fig. 1. It corresponds to the known 10 years period. Analyzing the curves it
is highlighted that the consumed power is increasing between
8-10 and 21-23 hours. These are the peak hours.

k
k
k
k 1
wdih
gwih
ih
wdih
; i 1, nh, j 1, n (10)
ij
ij
ij
k
k
k
k 1
wd ho
gwho
ho
wd ho
; i 1, no, j 1, nh (11)
ij

ij

ij

9. Based on the interpolation step h, three values are considered

for : 0 = 0, 1 h ; 2 2 h . For 1 and 2 the following quantities are computed (for 0 they are known from
the previous step):
weights for all the neurons:
k
w1ijk w1ijk 1 wdih
; i 1, nh, j 1, n

(10)

k
w2ijk w2ijk 1 wd ho
; i 1, no, j 1, nh

(11)

ij

ij

step 3 using the new weights' values (forward step);

epoch error step 4, resulting Ee1 and Ee2 (Ee0 from the
previous step).

Fig. 1. Load curves used for ANN training

Data corresponding to the load curves are presented in

Table I. These data are representing the known output for the
ANN supervised training process.
To validate the results provided by the own forecasting
software tool, the real daily curves for the analyzed period are
also known (Table II).

TABLE I. DATA CORRESPONDING TO THE KNOWN LOAD CURVES [KW]

Hour
Year

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

122.0
134.0
127.2
114.9
116.0
91.1
110.9
108.9
117.0
112.6

113.6
126.9
119.5
107.7
108.7
83.5
102.6
100.6
107.5
104.8

111.4
123.5
116.2
104.8
105.2
81.3
100.9
99.2
102.4
100.6

111.9
121.8
115.4
104.3
103.3
80.0
98.0
99.7
100.2
102.6

113.6
123.0
115.6
106.5
104.8
81.9
99.4
99.0
101.5
102.2

120.8
131.4
122.5
113.5
109.5
87.7
103.9
103.6
104.6
102.6

139.3
151.4
138.7
127.2
119.9
97.9
115.3
114.6
115.0
116.0

160.2
172.7
156.5
143.3
137.0
111.6
134.4
135.2
134.7
135.7

162.8
177.0
161.7
150.1
147.0
120.2
144.9
143.1
144.0
144.5

161.6
166.0
160.5
148.5
148.6
122.8
146.5
142.6
145.1
145.3

154.6
161.1
153.4
143.4
147.5
121.4
143.9
141.1
143.7
143.3

152.5
160.4
152.4
145.9
147.3
123.7
145.1
143.5
146.2
146.4

148.3
156.3
149.2
143.5
145.1
122.7
143.8
142.6
146.2
145.4

148.0
155.6
148.1
144.3
143.4
123.7
143.0
143.6
145.1
146.9

146.8
151.2
145.6
141.1
138.9
121.5
141.9
141.3
144.1
143.1

135.5
148.6
136.4
131.1
129.2
116.1
135.3
134.2
137.0
135.4

128.9
147.8
133.1
126.5
123.5
111.9
131.3
127.4
132.3
129.7

127.7
147.4
128.9
123.6
122.4
110.6
127.8
125.7
129.3
126.7

126.4
148.7
127.2
122.3
120.1
109.3
125.3
121.4
126.7
124.7

133.3
156.2
131.3
125.4
119.8
111.0
123.3
120.6
125.0
122.7

158.4
174.4
148.2
140.8
131.0
120.5
128.3
125.5
133.0
127.3

22

23

24

170.8 157.7 142.5

185.7 169.1 151.4
168.7 156.9 141.9
160.2 150.0 134.8
152.8 147.9 130.6
141.1 139.8 122.1
148.2 147.8 130.2
141.0 143.6 127.2
142.3 139.9 126.0
139.7 149.3 131.0

TABLE II. REAL DAILY LOAD CURVES [KW] CORRESPONDING TO THE FORECASTED PERIOD
Year / Hour

10

11

12

11

111.4

104.9

102.8

99.8

100.9

103.0

116.5

137.4

147.6

151.1

151.2

154.0

12

118.5

109.2

103.9

103.2

104.3

105.0

115.3

133.8

145.0

148.4

148.0

152.0

13

127.9

116.3

111.7

110.4

111.3

113.8

122.7

139.9

147.9

151.3

150.8

153.0

TABLE II. REAL DAILY LOAD CURVES [KW] CORRESPONDING TO THE FORECASTED PERIOD (CONTINUATION)
Year / Hour

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

11

153.0

152.8

149.8

143.2

136.2

133.3

131.7

133.7

136.6

145.1

145.2

128.3

12

150.7

150.3

149.7

143.6

138.9

134.9

131.5

132.3

133.8

142.0

154.2

140.6

13

151.6

151.8

149.9

143.5

139.6

136.9

133.7

133.1

136.5

145.7

155.3

140.5

The correlation between the daily load curves composing

the ANN training set (for the known 10 years) is studied
based on the following relation:

Prel

Pi Pavg
Pi

100, i 1; 24

(1)

where: Prel real relative power; Pavg average real consumed

power during the 24 hours; Pi hourly real consumed power.
The correlation study is graphically presented within the
Fig. 2.

Fig. 2. Load curves' correlation study

For the 03-04 and 22-24 hours a miscorrelation is highlighted in case of the 6th year. The same conclusion is obtained
in case of 10-16 hours, for the 2nd year. Thus, it is concluded
that these curves have an acceptable correlation; they are not
strong correlated.
The ANN based algorithm for daily load forecasting has
been developed in Matlab environment. The ANN toolbox has

not been used. Backpropagation ANN has been considered,

having the following configuration:
number of input neurons 1;
number of hidden neurons 2;
number of output neurons 24;
number of patterns within the training set 10 (load curves
for 10 years are known);
random values (representing the weights between the input
layer and the hidden one, respectively between the latter
and the output one), are generated within the rage [-1; 1];
= 0.5 learning rate has been considered;
being a supervised learning ANN, the known outputs are
requested to be displayed. They are represented by the 24
hours daily load curves;
precision (error) used for the forecast = 8.5E-04.
Conjugated gradient and parabolic interpolation have been
used for the ANN training process.
For the beginning, the daily load curves have been forecasted
using the classic methods (with the same input data): 2nd degree
polynomial and 2nd degree exponential functions.
In the following, the ANN based daily load forecasting has
been performed. The corresponding results are numerically
presented in Table III. They are also graphically presented in
Figs. 3-5.
The figures are highlighting that the 2nd degree exponential
function is more accurate than the polynomial one. The forecasted curves are following the real load curve, but they have
a considerable deviation (compared with the ANN ones). These
results are useful for comparison with the ones provided by the
ANN based algorithm.

TABLE III. ANN FORECASTED DAILY LOAD CURVES [KW]

Year / Hour

10

11

12

11

112.9

105.5

104.4

99.0

102.1

106.2

124.1

134.1

139.3

143.9

141.8

151.4

12

114.6

106.5

106.2

100.4

103.3

107.8

126.7

137.1

140.0

145.0

143.3

154.9

13

116.5

107.7

108.1

101.9

104.6

109.5

129.7

140.4

140.9

146.2

145.0

158.5

TABLE III. ANN FORECASTED DAILY LOAD CURVES [KW] (CONTINUATION)

Year / Hour

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

11

144.8

143.6

145.7

143.1

135.4

133.8

128.1

126.3

134.3

145.0

150.7

127.8

12

148.0

146.5

147.9

135.4

136.8

137.2

129.8

128.4

136.2

146.3

153.4

128.7

13

151.3

149.6

150.2

136.8

138.3

140.8

131.6

130.8

138.2

147.9

156.4

129.7

Fig. 5. 13th year forecasted daily load curve

Fig. 3. 11th year forecasted daily load curve

B. Hourly load forecasting

The software tool has been developed in Maltab environment
for ANN based hourly load forecasting. Real data have been
also used for this case.
The same day has been selected from the 10 years period
and it was forecasted for the next 3 years (Table IV).
Data correlation is presented in Fig. 6.
The figure highlights that the average input data correlation is around 60 %. These input data are well correlated
(07, 21, respectively 23 hours 80 %). If each input data set
is individually analyzed, the correlation is situated between
43-80 %. In case of 13-19 hours, a small correlation is highlighted 40 %.

Fig. 4. 12th year forecasted daily load curve

TABLE IV. HOURLY LOAD [KW] KNOWN DATA

Hour
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1st hour

3rd hour

5th hour

7th hour

9th hour

11th hour

13th hour

15th hour

17th hour

19th hour

21st hour

23rd hour

122.0
134.0
127.2
114.9
116.0
91.1
110.9
108.9
117.0
112.6

111.4
123.5
116.2
104.8
105.2
81.3
100.9
99.2
102.4
100.6

113.6
123.0
115.6
106.5
104.8
81.9
99.4
99.0
101.5
102.2

139.3
151.4
138.7
127.2
119.9
97.9
115.3
114.6
115.0
116.0

162.8
177.0
161.7
150.1
147.0
120.2
144.9
143.1
144.0
144.5

154.6
161.1
153.4
143.4
147.5
121.4
143.9
141.1
143.7
143.3

148.3
156.3
149.2
143.5
145.1
122.7
143.8
142.6
146.2
145.4

146.8
151.2
145.6
141.1
138.9
121.5
141.9
141.3
144.1
143.1

128.9
147.8
133.1
126.5
123.5
111.9
131.3
127.4
132.3
129.7

126.4
148.7
127.2
122.3
120.1
109.3
125.3
121.4
126.7
124.7

158.4
174.4
148.2
140.8
131.0
120.5
128.3
125.5
133.0
127.3

157.7
169.1
156.9
150.0
147.9
139.8
147.8
143.6
139.9
149.3

Fig. 6. Hourly load data correlation

Backpropagation ANN has been also used. Its configuration has been established as follows:

one single input;

three neurons corresponding to the hidden layer;
one single neuron corresponding to the output layer;
imposed error = 4E-05;
ANN training set patterns: 10.

The training ANN algorithm has been completed with

conjugated gradient and parabolic interpolation. These approaches have a good influence from converge and accuracy
point of view.
A supervised learning process is applied in case of the
ANN. The data set presented in Table I represents the known
output.
The forecasted load power values using classic methods
are presented in Table V.

TABLE V. HOURLY LOAD FORECASTED VALUES [KW] 2ND DEGREE POLYNOMIAL FUNCTION
Hour
Year

1st hour

3rd hour

5th hour

7th hour

9th hour

11th hour

13th hour

15th hour

17th hour

19th hour

21st hour

23rd hour

150.3
156.5
163.9

130.3
134.0
138.3

130.9
136.4
143.0

130.4
135.4
142.1

147.7
150.8
154.7

150.84
157.87
166.63

136.83
142.91
150.49

131.22
137.29
144.94

133.87
140.07
148.42

147.59
150.56
154.47

2nd degree polynomial function

2009
2010
2011

118.4
124.0
130.8

104.5
108.9
114.3

105.8
111.0
117.4

119.8
125.6
133.0

150.8
157.9
166.7

148.8
154.4
161.3

151.1
156.7
163.3

2nd degree exponential function

2009
2010
2011

118.94
125.37
133.68

104.96
109.92
116.41

106.25
112.07
119.70

119.87
125.81
133.80

151.11
158.85
168.97

149.16
155.37
163.29

ANN based peak consumed power forecasting provided

the results presented in Figs. 7-9.

151.63
157.89
165.70

All these figures are highlighting that the ANN based forecasting provides the best results compared to the real values. Greater
deviations are recorded in case of the classic forecasting methods.
C. Peak consumed power forecasting
The peak consumed power forecasting has been performed
for 9 (morning peak power) and 21 hours (evening peak power).
3 data sets have been used corresponding to the 2001-2006
period. Within the paper only 1 set is presented (Table VI).
TABLE VI. PEAK CONSUMED POWER [KW] KNOWN DATA

Fig. 7. 11th year hourly load forecasting

Data 26
26
26
26
26
26
Hour
Year
July August September October November December
10
9.5
16.5
18
21.5
12
09:00
2001
12
12.5
16
17
21
15
21:00
15
12.5
13
15
15.5
11
09:00
2002
15
15
14
15
17
13.5
21:00
14.5
11
13
10.5
15
7
09:00
2003
12.5 11.5
12.5
15
16
10.5
21:00
14
11.5
6
12.5
14.5
5
09:00
2004
12
13
10.5
14
14.5
9
21:00
12
10.5
11
10.5
14.5
5.5
09:00
2005
12.5 10.5
12
12
12
8.5
21:00

2006

Fig. 8. 12th year hourly load forecasting

Fig. 9. 13th year hourly load forecasting

10
10

8.5
9.5

12
10

11.5
12.5

8.5
13

7.5
10

09:00
21:00

An important difference is recorded between the morning

peak consumed power and evening one. In case of the evening
peak power an increasing trend is highlighted until the end
of the year. The consumed power decreases for the last month.
A maximum is recorded in case of November moth.
Data correlation is presented in Fig. 10.

Fig. 10. Peak consumed power data correlation

Evening peak power data correlation is continuously improving. In case of morning peak power 90 % maximum value
is recorded; for September month it decreases.
It significantly decreases for the 3rd month.
ANN used for peak consumed power forecasting has the
same type and configuration as the one presented in case of
point B. The only difference is represented by the ANN
training set. 6 patterns have been used in this case.
The forecasted peak consumed power values using classic
methods are presented in Table VII.
TABLE VII. PEAK CONSUMED POWER [KW] CLASSIC FORECASTING
Hour

9:00
21:00
9:00
21:00

26
26
26
26
26
26
July August September October November December
2nd degree polynomial function
4.80 5.70
15.45
13.60
8.40
9.40
7.95 7.05
10.70
11.75
13.10
11.10
2nd degree exponential function
6.54 6.47
16.83
13.21
7.61
9.45
8.44 7.75
10.36
11.68
12.58
10.80

2nd degree exponential function provides better results than

the 2nd degree polynomial one.
The ANN based forecasting results are synthesized in
Table VIII.
TABLE VIII. ANN PEAK CONSUMED POWER FORECASTING [KW]
Hour

9:00
21:00

26
26
26
26
26
26
July August September October November December
10.76 7.80
13.32
12.64
12.44
6.43
10.97 9.10
13.96
13.93
12.40
8.96

Graphically, these results are presented in Fig. 11.

Fig. 11. ANN peak consumed power forecasting

This figure highlights that the best results are provided by

ANN based forecasting. Important deviations are recorded
between the real values and the ones forecasted using classic
methods.

IV.

CONCLUSION

ANN based power consumption forecasting provides better

results than the ones obtained applying classic forecasting
methods. Three applications have been presented: daily load
curve forecasting, respectively peak power and hourly load
forecasting. Within this paper, the algorithms have been tested
on real data.
The backpropagation ANN has been used for these applications. Its algorithm has been updated using the conjugated
gradient and interpolation methods.
A very important factor is represented by the tuning of the
algorithm.
The work is going to be continued taking into consideration
additional factors as input data (such as: day type work day
or week end, temperature etc.).
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