ABG Union Budget 2015-2016 - 280215

A growth oriented budget with realistic assumptions!
28th February 2015

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Budget Highlights
Budget fittingly tackles balancing of conflicting objectives - higher share of government revenues going to the states, maintaining a tight fiscal balance,
allocating higher public investments to spur growth as private investments are still lagging. In the process it deliberately compromised on the deficit
target which is projected at a tad higher at 3.9% vs 3.6% for the year with the 3% target being pushed back by a year to 2018 from 2017. But
importantly the additional spending Rs. 70000cr additional Gross Budgetary Support - targeted on infrastructure will be released immediately to kick
start growth (including 40000cr of GBS to Railways). Shovel ready projects will support immediate kick off of infra capex to push prime the economic
growth creating multiplier effect.
Phased cut in the corporate income tax starting FY17 from 30 to 25% is significantly positive along with simplification of the tax structure
(Rationalisation and removal of various tax exemptions). Support for Make in India was demonstrated through a 15% cut in royalty and fees for
technical services; lower corporate tax and commitment to implement GST by April 2016. Deferment of GAAR by 2 (prospective basis ONLY) years will
add to the confidence of foreign investors. Bringing NBFCs having asset size in excess of Rs. 5 bn under SARFAESI Act, Comprehensive Bankruptcy
Code, an independent debt management unit and a monetary policy committee for the RBI to deal with a formally mandated inflation target were some
of the major structural reforms announced which will lead to ease in doing business and propel the GDP growth to 8%+.
On its revenue front, the gross tax collections have been budgeted to grow at 15.8% to Rs.14.49 lakh crores. On spending side, slump in crude price is
a god sent opportunity supporting subsidy reduction in Oil. Budget targets to check subsidy leakages with further expansion of Direct Transfer of
Benefit. The FM has also spelt out provisions relating to the proposed bill (To be introduced in the current session) to curb both domestic and foreign
black money. In keeping with this theme, there is increasing thrust on financial inclusion and social security including Housing for all, employment
generation and poverty reduction. FM has budgeted for higher divestment proceeds (~70k crore). Pick up in taxes will be gradual and linked to revival of
the economy and therefore targeted disinvestments will be the key to boosting governments non-tax revenue kitty.
In conclusion, Budget gives clarity of long term vision and stability of fiscal policies in a potentially high growth environment. It carries forward the
governments thrust on taking our economy towards global standards of governance by making it more investment-friendly, fairer and transparent. It will
help create a business friendly tax environment and infrastructure spending boost while slightly relaxing the deficit reduction plan. FM has clearly set up
an ambitious reform agenda. Now he needs to ensure that the key initiatives are implemented flawlessly and we see tangible difference. Given the
deferment of GAAR by two years, the budget would be received favorably in most quarters of the global investor community. Budget is not very
expansionary which will assuage the concerns of the RBI, leading to a likely reducation in the interest rates. Rating upgrade for India in sometime in
future and paucity of investment opportunities in other EM spaces will keep the $ inflow robust.
Top Picks : Yes Bank, Axis Bank, L&T, Tata Motor DVR and Maruti
2
Hits and Misses from the Budget

Hits from the Budget
GAAR deferred by 2 years; to apply to investments made on or after 1st April 2017. It will not be implemented RETROSPECTIVELY Will remove
uncertainty for FIIs and will give further boost to inflow
Corporate tax rate to decline from current 30% to 25% over next 4 yrs, starting from next fiscal Earnings will get upgraded marginally; Will give
boost capex cycle
Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for technical services reduced from 25% to 10% to facilitate technology inflow Will encourage MNCs to
bring technology in India from abroad and boost MAKE IN INDIA initiative
Black Money Curb - Aim to move to cashless economy by encouraging shift to card based transaction; Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Bill to
curb domestic black money to be introduced in the current session of Parliament; PAN being made mandatory for any purchase or sale exceeding
Rs 1 lakh.
Stronger bankruptcy code enforcing better borrower discipline
Higher tax share for states, as per the 14th Finance Commission report, give leeway to spend as per need, rather than one size & style fits all
approach.
Misses from the Budget
Clarity on PSU banks reforms and lower allocation towards PSU Bank recpaitalisation (~8000crore)
Clarity on Retrospective taxation
Plan expenditure lower than expected

Corporate surcharge increased by 2% to 12%
3
Agenda
Budget at a glance
Sector specific measures and impact
4
Budget at a glance
5
Budget at a glance
Particulars (In ` crore)
1.
4.
Revenue Receipts (2+3)
FY14
FY15
FY15
FY16
Actuals
Budget Estimates
Revised Estimates
Budget Estimates
1,014,724
1,189,763
1,126,294
1,141,575
2.
Tax Revenue (net to Centre)
815,854
977,258
908,463
919,842
3.
Non-tax Revenue
198,870
212,505
217,831
221,733
Capital Receipts (5+6+7)
544,723
605,129
554,864
635,902
5.
Recoveries of Loans
12,497
10,527
10,886
10,753
6.
Other Receipts
29,368
63,425
31,350
69,500
7.
Borrowings and other Liabilities*
502,858
531,177
512,628
555,649
8.
Total Receipts (1+4)
1,559,447
1,794,892
1,681,158
1,777,477
9.
Non-plan Expenditure
1,106,120
1,219,892
1,213,224
1,312,200
10. On Revenue Account of which,
1,019,040
1,114,609
1,121,897
1,206,027
374,254
427,011
411,354
456,145
11. Interest Payments

12. On Capital Account
87,080
105,283
91,327
106,173
453,327
575,000
467,934
465,277
14. On Revenue Account
352,732
453,503
366,883
330,020
15. On Capital Account
100,595
121,497
101,051
135,257
1,559,447
1,794,892
1,681,158
1,777,477
1,371,772
1,568,111
1,488,780
1,536,047
18. Of which, grants for creation of capital assets
129,418
168,104
131,898
110,551
19. Capital Expenditure (12+15)
187,675
226,781
192,378
241,430
357,048
378,348
362,486
394,472
(3.1)
(2.9)
(2.9)
(2.8)
227,630
210,244
230,588
283,921
(2.0)
(1.6)
(1.8)
(2.0)
502,858
531,177
512,628
555,649
(4.4)
(4.1)
(4.1)
(3.9)
128,604
104,166
101,274
99,504
(1.1)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.7)
13. Plan Expenditure
16. Total Expenditure (9+13)

17. Revenue Expenditure (10+14)
20. Revenue Deficit (17-1)

% of GDP
21. Effective Revenue deficit (20-18)
% of GDP
22. Fiscal Deficit {16-(1+5+6)}
% of GDP
23. Primary Deficit (20-11)
% of GDP
Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research
6
Budget at a glance (Contd)
Capital
Receipts
33.0%
Receipts Break-up FY15 RE
Receipts Break-up FY16 BE

Capital
Receipts
35.8%
Rs 6090 bn
Rs 5590 bn
Rs 8718 bn
Rs 10563 bn
Revenue
Receipts
64.2%
Revenue
Receipts
67.0%
Expenditure Break-up FY15 RE
Expenditure Break-up FY16 BE

Plan
Expenditure
26.2%
Plan
Expenditure
27.8%
Rs 5553 bn
Rs 4292 bn
Rs 10016 bn
Rs 11100 bn
Non-Plan
Expenditure
72.2%
Non-Plan
Expenditure
73.8%
7
Budget at a glance (Contd)

Tax Revenue Break-up FY16 BE
Tax Revenue Break-up FY15 RE

Taxes on U.T.
0.3%
Customs
15.1%
Service Tax
13.4%
Wealth Tax
0.1%
Union
Excise Duties
14.8%
Corporation Tax
34.0%
Customs
14.4%
Service Tax
14.5%
Non-Planned Expenditure FY15 RE
Police
4.0%
Others
5.6%
Non-Planned Expenditure FY16 BE
Interest
Payments etc.
34.1%
Pensions
6.8%
Police
3.9%
Economic
Services
2.2%
Others
7.0%
Interest
Payments etc.
34.7%
Pensions
6.7%
Grants to
State & UT
6.7%
Defence Services
(RE+CE)
18.4%
Corporation Tax
32.5%
Taxes
on Income
22.6%
Union
Excise Duties
15.9%
Taxes
on Income
22.3%
Economic
Services
2.2%
Taxes on U.T. Wealth Tax

0.2%
0.0%
Grants to
State & UT
8.2%
Defence Services
(RE+CE)
18.7%
Subsidies
22.1%
8
Subsidies
18.5%
Changes in FY16BE over FY15RE
FY15 RE
FY16 BE
FY16BE /
FY15RE
Corporation Tax
426,079
470,628
10%
Taxes on Income
278,599
327,367
18%
Customs
188,713
208,336
10%
Union Excise Duties
185,480
229,809
24%
Service Tax
168,132
209,774
25%
2. Non-Tax Revenue
217,831
198,133
-9%
Interest receipts
22,166
23,599
6%
Dividend and Profits
88,781
100,651
13%
Other Non Tax Revenue
103,555
94,413
-9%
31,350
69,500
122%
Particulars (` Cr.)
REVENUE RECEIPTS
1. Tax Revenue
3. Capital Receipts
Miscellaneous Capital Receipts (on a/c of Disinvestment)
9
Agenda
Budget at a glance
10
11
Agriculture
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Incremental agriculture credit target of Rs

500 bn in FY16 to Rs 8500 bn.
These measures are expected to lead to

increased demand for fertilisers, agro
chemicals, hybrid seeds, farm equipment,
irrigation projects. Beneficial in medium to long
term for agri-equipment sectors, seeds,
agrochemicals, tractor segment etc.
BASF, Monsanto, Kaveri Seeds, PI Industries,

Insecticides, Advanta, Coromandel, M&M, VST
Tillers (+ve)
These measures are expected to give further

push for various irrigation projects and is
positive for overall supply chain of irrigation
industry.
Jain Irrigation, EPC Industries (+ve)
Rs 53 bn allocated to support microirrigation, watershed development and the

Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana.
State govt can allocate further funds
Top Picks: M&M, PI Industries
12
Automobiles & Aviation/Tourism

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Excise duty on chassis for ambulance is

being reduced from 24% to 12.5%
Auto companies are likely to pass-on the

benefits to end consumers
Force Motors (+ve)
Validity period of concessional excise duty

of 6% granted to specified goods used in
the manufacture of electrically operated
vehicles and hybrid vehicles is being
extended by one more year up to 31st
March, 2016.
Will enable electric/hybrid vehicles to remain

competitive in the market.
M&M, Electrotherm (+ve)
This measures has been taken to protect

domestic industry and give push to Make in
India project.
Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors

(+ve)
Will give boost to domestic tourism
Indian Hotel, Cox & Kings, Thomas Cook,

Mahindra Holidays (+ve)
Custom duty on import of commercial

vehicles has been increased from 10% to
40%.
10% custom duty has been applied on
imports of CKD kits of CV.
CV imported in any other forms has been
levied with import duty of 20%.
Visa on arrival to be to be increased to 150
countries from 43 currently in phased
manner.
Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for
technical services reduced from 25% to
10% to facilitate technology inflow.
Will be beneficial
companies
for
MNC
automobile
Top Picks: Maruti, Tata Motors, Cox & Kings
13
Maruti (+ve)
Banking & Financials

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
FPI, FDI shareholding to be merged and to

be considered as composite cap.
Distinction between different foreign
investment to be abolished
Currently, the foreign shareholding in private

banks is capped at 74% of equity capital with
FII limit capped at 49%. With composite cap,
the banks in which FII limit is near trigger point
of 49% will be able to increase FII limit upto
74%. This will increase the headroom for FII
to buy the shares. With more FII headroom,
the weight in indices of these banks is also
likely to increase.
Axis Bank, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank (+ve)
Negative for banks as higher borrowing target

will translate into higher bond yields and
consequently higher MTM losses
Mainly PSU banks including PNB, Union Bank,

OBC (-ve)
PSU banks are struggling for capital as they

bore the brunt of asset quality pain. With lower
capital allocated by government, the banks
with low tier 1 ratio will not have healthy
business, NII and profit growth going ahead
PSU banks including Union Bank, IDBI Bank,

IOB, OBC (-ve)
Market borrowing of the Government is

pegged at Rs 5556.5 bn for FY16E (3.9%
of GDP) which is higher than the street
expectation of 3.6%
Government allocated Rs 79.4 bn for PSU
bank re-capitalisation which is lower than
estimate of Rs 150-180bn
Top Picks: Yes Bank, Indusind Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance
14
Banking & Financials (Contd)

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Agriculture credit target for banking

industry increased from Rs 8000 bn in
FY15 to Rs 8500 bn in FY16E
Agricultural loans are usually provided to

financially weaker section of the society and
are highly prone to NPA risk. Largely negative
for PSU banks as they mainly extend credit to
direct agriculture and are starved of capital to
further bear NPA risk
Mainly PSU banks including Union Bank, OBC,

IDBI, IOB (-ve)
Strong bankruptcy code to enforce better

borrower discipline
Strong bankruptcy code will lower slippages

and improve the recovery of dues which shall
lower the stressed assets of PSU banks.
However, the positive results to be showcased
in medium to long term
SBI, BOI, BOB, Canara Bank (+ve)
As more business is done through card usage,

the deposit growth of banks shall improve.
With Jan dhan scheme, over 11 crore Rupay
cards have already been issued which shall be
supportive.
SBI, BOI, BOB, Canara Bank (+ve)
Clarity in tax structure will make it attractive for

the real estate players to raise funds instead of
taking loans from financial institutions
HDFC, Indiabulls Housing Finance (-ve)
FM stated that several measures may

soon be introduced to incentivise credit or
debit card transaction in order to curb the
flow of black money by discouraging cash
transaction
Government to soon
structure for REITs
clarify
the
tax
15
Banking & Financials (Contd)

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
NBFCs with assets more than Rs 5 bn will

be allowed to use SARFESI
This will benefit NBFCs to recover the NPAs

faster. SARFESI will allow NBFC to auction
properties when borrowers fail to repay their
loans. NBFCs having property as collateral will
be major beneficiaries
Bajaj Finance, Capital First, HDFC (+ve)
Increase in tax exemption limit will encourage

people to take health insurance in which Max
India is a major player
Max India (+ve)
Forward Market Commission (FMC) is the

watchdog for commodity futures market in
India while SEBI is the regulator for capital
markets. The merger of these two regulators
will strengthen the regulation of commodity
markets
MCX (+ve)
Majority of the banks and financial institutions

pay tax of ~30% and would be steadily
benefitting by lower tax rate over next 4 years
which would add to their bottom-line
HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank, Yes Bank, Axis

Bank, ICICI Bank, etc (+ve)
Tax exemption limit for health insurance

increased from Rs 15000 to Rs 25000. For
the senior citizens the limit is hiked to Rs
30000
FMC and SEBI to be merged
Reduce corporate tax from 30% to 25%

over next 4 years
16
Cement
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Clean energy cess increased from Rs 100

to Rs 200 per tonne of coal, etc. to finance
clean environment initiatives.
Marginal increase in coal cost for all cement

players.
Focus on reviving investment cycle.
Revival in investment cycle will drive cement

demand in medium to long term.
We believe the budget is mixed bag for cement

industry and hence the impact is marginally
positive indirectly from short to medium term
perspective.
Additional investment allowance (@ 15%)

and additional depreciation (@35%) to new
manufacturing units set up during the
period 01-04-2015 to 31-03-2020 in
notified backward areas of Andhra Pradesh
and Telangana.
Will create cement demand from housing and

industries in the region of Andhra and
Telangana.
Sagar Cement, Orient Cement, NCL industries,

Deccan Cement, Kesoram, Ramco etc
Will be beneficial for MNC cement companies
ACC, Ambuja, Heidelberg (+ve)
Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for

technical services reduced from 25% to
10% to facilitate technology inflow.
Top Picks: Orient Cement and OCL India
17
Consumption (FMCG/Retail/Jewellery)
Budgetary Measures
Marginal decrease in tax burden for all
taxpayers due to incremental benefits
under various heads of tax exemptions.
Roadmap for reduction in corporate tax
from current 30% to 25% in next 4 yrs.
Increase in excise duty in the range of 1530% for various size of cigarettes.
Roadmap for implementation of GST

mentioned.
Increased effective service tax burden
from 12.36% to 14%.
Excise Duty on leather footwear of Retail
Sale Price exceeding Rs.1000 per pair has
been reduced from 12% to 6%. (abatement
as a percentage of Retail Sale Price is
being reduced from 35% to 25% for all
footwear)
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Increased focus rural areas, lower personal tax

outgo to increase disposable income of
consumers. Majority of the FMCG companies
are full tax paying companies and they will
benefit marginally in form of lower tax outgo.
HUL, Dabur, Marico, Godrej Consumer

Products Limited. Emami, Pidilite, Asian Paints
etc. (+ve)
Increase in excise duty has been more than

street expectation of 8-10%. Subdued industry
cigarette volumes are likely to come under
further pressure, as cigarette companies will
pass-on the increased tax burden to
consumers.
GST is likely to get implemented from 1st April
2016. Beneficial for all retail store network
owners.
For ITC, majority volume contribution is from

65mm+ category and the company has to take
~15-16% price hike to maintain current
profitability. (-ve)
Godfrey Phillips & VST Industries (-ve)
Shoppers Stop, Trent, Titan etc (-ve in FY16E,

+ve from FY17E onwards, net net neutral)
Increased burden on service tax on rent and

other services will hit profitability marginally
Footwear companies are likely to pass-on the

benefits of effective lower taxes to consumers
so as to boost volume.
Top Picks: HUL, Dabur, Emami, Pidilite, Marico, Bata India
18
Bata India (+ve)
Construction/Infrastructure/Engineering
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Rs.12bn allocated for DMIC and , as the

pace of expenditure picks up additional
funds will be provided
Ahmedabad-Dhaulera Investment Region in

Gujarat, and the ShendraBidkin Industrial
Park, in Maharashtra, are now in a position to
start work on basic infrastructure. Additional
allocation will further boost the DMIC project.
L&T, Simplex Infrastructure, (+ve)
National Investment and Infrastructure

Fund (NIIF), to be established with an
annual flow of `200bn to it.
Positive The investment will be in the form of

equity and will create room for huge leverage
All Infrastructure companies (+ve)
Tax free infrastructure bonds can be

issued for the projects in the rail, road and
irrigation sectors
Positive - The move is likely to boost the rural

infrastructure and help the smaller regional
players in the infra space.
Players operating in Railways, Roads, Ports,

and irrigation segment. (+ve)
Ports in public sector will be encouraged,

to corporatize, and become companies
under the Companies Act
Negative for private ports - Public sector ports

will be able to attract investment and leverage
the huge land resources
GPPL, Adani ports, Essar ports (-ve)
2lakh kms of road to be built.(This includes

one lakh km already under construction
and sanctioning another one lakh km of
roads)
A very ambitious target has been set and the

ministry is working on various means to
achieve the same.
IRB, ITNL,Sadbhav, Ashoka, MBL

Infrastructure (+ve)
Top Picks: L&T, IDFC
19
Construction/Infrastructure/Engineering (Contd)
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Gross Budgetary Support (GBS) for the

Railways has been pegged at Rs. 400bn.
GBS for current year is higher by Rs. 100bn

over the last fiscal year and 41.6% of the total
plan outlay ~Rs. 1000bn in 2015-16 financial
year.
Bhel, Siemens (+ve)
The move will lead to higher use of LEDs

which are more efficient then CFLs.
Havells, Crompton Greaves, Bajaj Electricals

(+ve)
Excise duty reduced from 12% to 6% for

Inputs used in the manufacture of LED
drivers and MCPCB for LED lights, fixtures
and LED lamps.
Top Picks: L&T, IDFC
20
Metals & Mining

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Customs duty hiked from 10% to 15% on

iron & steel and articles of iron or steel,
falling under Chapters 72 and 73 of the
Customs.
Positive
Tata Steel, JSW Steel (+ve)
Marginally Negative
Tata Steel, JSW Steel (-ve)
Higher investments in railways and capex will

create additional demand for steel.
Tata Steel, JSW Steel (+ve)
Customs duty hiked from 2.5% to 5% on

metallurgical coke
Higher thrust on railway and infrastructure

capex .
Top Picks: Tata Steel
21
Power
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
5 new Ultra Mega Power Projects, each of

4000 MW, in the Plug-and-Play mode
In the plug and play mode government will put

in all the clearances in place and will also
partner in the project.
Power sector players (+ve)
This will encourage domestic production and

promote power players to purchase locally.
Bhel (+ve)
Clean energy cess increased from `100 to

`200 per metric tonne of coal, etc. to
finance clean environment initiatives
Mildly Negative
Adani Power, Tata Power, JSW Energy (-ve)
Target of renewable energy capacity

revised to 175000 MW till 2022(100000
MW Solar, 60000 MW Wind, 10000 MW
Biomass and 5000 MW Small Hydro)
Government is focusing on promoting

energy especially solar power
Zero excise duty on round copper wire and

tin alloys for use in the manufacture of
Solar PV ribbon for manufacture of solar
PV cells
Positive
Nil excise duty on goods for setting up of

UMPP
clean
NTPC, Tata Power ,Suzlon and other power

players (+ve)
Bhel, Indosolar, Moser Baer (+ve)
Top Picks: BHEL,Tata Power
22
Retail/Gems and Jewellery

Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Marginal increase in consumer spending

power due to adjustment in tax slab
Marginally positive for the organised retail

space as it would lead to more money in the
hands of consumers
Shoppers Stop & TITAN
Will lead to marginal decrease in prices of

branded garments, which we believe will be
passed by the retailers to consumers and
thereby boost the volumes marginally. Overall
positive
Shoppers Stop
GST network likely to be rolled-out by

August 2012.
Excise duty on branded garments
decreased from ~4.5% to ~3.6%.
Increase in service tax on rentals from
10% to 12%.
Levy of excise duty of 1% on branded
precious metal jewellery to be extended to
include unbranded jewellery.
Custom duty on gold ores and

concentrates for use in manufacture of
gold from 1% to 2%.
Will lead to increased cost for the unbranded

jewellery makers and thereby eliminate the
price difference between branded and
unbranded players. We believe this is
marginally positive for branded jewellery
makers.
The increase in custom duty on gold ores and
concentrates will increase the cost for gold
refiner and hence for jewellery makers. It will
have negligible adverse impact on jewellery
volume.
Top Picks: Titan
23
Titan and Gitanjali Gems
Real Estate
Budgetary Measures
Impact
Stocks to Watch
Rationalization of capital gains regime for

the sponsors exiting at the time of listing of
the units of REITs and InvITs.
The rental income of REITs from their own
assets will have pass through facility
Positive - The move is likely to bring in higher

investments in these sectors.
L&T, DLF, Oberoi Realty

and other
infrastructure and real estate players (+ve)
Positive
Ashiana Housing, Sobha Developers (+ve)
~Rs.224bn for
development
housing
and
urban
Top Picks: Sobha, Oberoi Realty
24
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan
Head of Research
022-61802820
vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com
Hemant Thukral
Head Derivatives Desk
022-61802870
hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com
Fundamental Team
Sunny Agrawal
FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps
022-61802831
sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
Shreyans Mehta
Construction/Real Estate
022-61802829
shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
Jaymin Trivedi
Banking & Finance
022-61802833
jaymin.trivedi@adityabirla.com
Naveen Baid
Oil & Gas/IT
022-61325226
naveen.baid@adityabirla.com
Pradeep Parkar
Database Analyst
022-61802839
pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com
Sudeep Shah
Sr.Technical Analyst
022-61802837
sudeep.shah@adityabirla.com
Rahil Vora
Technical Analyst
022-61802834
rahil.vora@adityabirla.com
Soni Patnaik
Derivative Analyst
022-61802832
soni.patnaik@adityabirla.com
Avinash Nahata
Advisory Desk
022-61802824
Avinash.Nahata@adityabirla.com
Suresh Gardas
Advisory Desk
022-61207619
suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
Salim Hajiani
Advisory Desk
022-61207618
salim.hajiani@adityabirla.com
Mohan Jaiswal
Executive Research Support
022-61802838
mohan.jaiswal@adityabirla.com
Quantitative Team
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ABG Union Budget 2015-2016 - 280215

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ABG Union Budget 2015-2016 - 280215

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A growth oriented budget with realistic assumptions!

28th February 2015

Hits and Misses from the Budget

Plan expenditure lower than expected

Sector specific measures and impact

Revenue Receipts (2+3)

Tax Revenue (net to Centre)

Capital Receipts (5+6+7)

Borrowings and other Liabilities*

Total Receipts (1+4)

10. On Revenue Account of which,

11. Interest Payments

14. On Revenue Account

15. On Capital Account

18. Of which, grants for creation of capital assets

19. Capital Expenditure (12+15)

13. Plan Expenditure

16. Total Expenditure (9+13)

20. Revenue Deficit (17-1)

Budget at a glance (Contd)

Receipts Break-up FY15 RE

Receipts Break-up FY16 BE

Expenditure Break-up FY15 RE

Expenditure Break-up FY16 BE

Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research

Budget at a glance (Contd)

Tax Revenue Break-up FY15 RE

Non-Planned Expenditure FY15 RE

Non-Planned Expenditure FY16 BE

Taxes on U.T. Wealth Tax

Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research

Changes in FY16BE over FY15RE

Union Excise Duties

Dividend and Profits

Other Non Tax Revenue

Sector specific measures and impact

Sector specific measures and impact

Incremental agriculture credit target of Rs

These measures are expected to lead to

BASF, Monsanto, Kaveri Seeds, PI Industries,

These measures are expected to give further

Jain Irrigation, EPC Industries (+ve)

Rs 53 bn allocated to support microirrigation, watershed development and the

Top Picks: M&M, PI Industries

Automobiles & Aviation/Tourism

Excise duty on chassis for ambulance is

Auto companies are likely to pass-on the

Force Motors (+ve)

Validity period of concessional excise duty

Will enable electric/hybrid vehicles to remain

M&M, Electrotherm (+ve)

This measures has been taken to protect

Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors

Will give boost to domestic tourism

Indian Hotel, Cox & Kings, Thomas Cook,

Custom duty on import of commercial

Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research

Top Picks: Maruti, Tata Motors, Cox & Kings

Banking & Financials

FPI, FDI shareholding to be merged and to

Currently, the foreign shareholding in private

Axis Bank, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank (+ve)

Negative for banks as higher borrowing target