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Back of the Net

by

James Leadbetter

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LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer & Terms of Use

This e-book has been put together for educational purposes only; it is not a guarantee that you will make a
profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very good living from football, but
trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to
"get rich quick". This book shares a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you decide to trade
using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for your own actions. Your success or
income level cannot be guaranteed.
The author shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental or other
consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this material which is provided as is
without warranties.
It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you are. In regions where gambling is illegal, this
e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in this e-book which lead to a third-party
website must only be used when the local laws allow.
You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may not be shared or
sold.
If you think you may have a problem with gambling, there is plenty of help out there for you. All of these
websites offer advice and assistance:-

http://www.gamcare.org.uk/
http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/
http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/

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Contents
Welcome ................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Daily Selections ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
First Half Goals (FHG) .............................................................................................................................................. 6
FHG Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 9
Second Half Goals (SHG) ....................................................................................................................................... 10
SHG Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 16
Trading on the Move ............................................................................................................................................ 16
Good Luck! ............................................................................................................................................................ 17

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Welcome
The excellent Team Stats module from Goal Profits has allowed us to look at new and innovative ways of
making great profits from Betfair football markets.
In this manual I will clearly explain how easy it is to trade two successful strategies that I have made available
to subscribers. But first a little about me:
I started trading football matches on Betfair in 2009, the sport has always been a big part of my life. Ive been
a Southend United supporter since 1988 so Im very much accustomed to the ups and downs of the beautiful
game! At first I had very mixed results, most of my selections were made on instinct as I had very little concept
of value at that stage. Knowing what I do today I would now consider myself as just another punter back
then, relying mostly on luck to turn a profit over the long-term (which of course I didnt!).
In 2012 I had the very good fortune to join the FootyTrading service run by Kevin Laverick (who you already
know!). I learnt an awful lot from Kevin and his service, even meeting him in person for a one-to-one Correct
Score training session which proved invaluable. My trading journey and Betfair bankroll took a distinct upturn.
In 2013 I was pointed in the direction of Goal Profits and continued to learn from another master trader in
Steve Brown.
By April 2013 I had started to look at developing my own strategies and hit upon an extremely simple lay
system which profited from predicting fixtures that would see at least one second half goal. The results were
excellent and with the help of Steve and Team Stats this led to the launch of the SHG (Second Half Goals)
service in August 2013. After SHG it seemed only logical that a First Half Goals system (FHG) would be a
possibility. Having trialled numerous filters to identify the strongest selections FHG was also launched on
January 1st 2014.
Both strategies rely heavily on one vitally-important keyword value. The price you are being offered has to
represent good value when compared to the statistical chances of winning your bet. Betting with value is
absolutely critical to success; if you trade without it then you simply cannot make money over the long-term.

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Daily Selections
You will receive a daily e-mail listing all BotN selections for the following day. I send the email out at
approximately 9pm UK time, even if there are no selections.
Below is an example:

This email contains all the information you need for both BotN strategies. I also number the selections so that
you are able to discuss them in the Goal Profits chat room should you wish.

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First Half Goals (FHG)

So lets talk about the process of trading the first system, FHG. While its a statistical fact that more goals are
scored in the second half of games than the first this is tempered by the lower lay odds when laying 0-0 in the
Half Time Score market compared to laying the current score in the main CS market at HT. A lower strike
rate is therefore required to make good profits.
During testing the strike rate was 81.7% which produced an ROI of 11.3%. The average lay price was 3.76
(27.60 investment to 10 stakes) with an average profit per trade of 3.11.
This is a very simple set-and-forget system which means its great for those who dont have time to monitor
trades in-play. You can open your positions in the morning after receiving my BotN selections e-mail and after
placing your FHG bets there is nothing to do other than check the first half scoreline at HT to see if its a
winner.
For each FHG selection, go to the Half Time Score market on Betfair of the specified trade. You are going to
lay 0-0 in this market (see Marseille vs Montpellier below):

You can see that the price to lay 0-0 is at 3.05. This is a particularly low price which is good news because the
lower the price, the lower the liability if the bet loses.
You are going to lay 0-0 at 3.05 for 10. The liability at 3.05 for a 10 stake is:
(3.05-1) x 10 = 20.50
If the score is 0-0 at HT you lose 20.50, if there is a first half goal you win 10 (minus Betfair commission).

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NOTE: There is no gap between the blue Back and pink Lay price in this example. If a market is low on
liquidity there may be a gap between the prices when you log in.

You can see below that there is a significant gap between the back and lay 0-0 prices for Cardiff City vs Arsenal.

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Logging in to Betfair and laying 0-0 just before kick-off is one option. If this isnt possible though then its not a
problem. All you need to do is place a lay order at the lay price listed on my selections e-mail. Press the pink
3.6 lay button and change the lay odds to my listed price (in this case lets say I have listed this as 3.3). Click
Submit. You will be unmatched.

Click Go to My Bets and highlight the Keep option. Then click Update.

This will now ensure that your lay bet at 3.3 is held on the system after kick off and you will be matched
quickly (or maybe even before kick off if youre lucky). Make sure the Keep option is highlighted though or if
your bet is not matched by kick-off then it will be cancelled by Betfair.
The maximum price I will ever lay at is 4.0. If the Half Time Score market is showing a 0-0 lay price between
4.1 and 5.0 pre-match then put a keep order in to lay 0-0 at 4.0.
IMPORTANT: If a selection shows a lay price over 5.0 by KO then discard the trade and cancel your 4.0 order.

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FHG Summary

You are laying 0-0 in the Half Time Score market.

If you are unable to be matched straight away then you need to put a lay order in at the price listed
on my e-mail (making sure that the Keep option is highlighted).
If a selection has a lay price between 4.1 and 5.0 by KO then put a keep lay order in at 4.0. You will
be matched quickly in-play.
Do not trade any selection that has a lay price of over 5.0 at kick-off.

If you are a more conservative trader, you have the option of laying the draw in the Half Time market instead
at a lower price. You should be aware though that this method requires you to log in and trade out after a goal
to take your profit so would be unsuitable if you dont have time to monitor trades in-play.

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Second Half Goals (SHG)

SHG is an extremely robust system and produces solid, long-term profits. During testing the strike rate was
84.3% which produced an ROI of 7.9%. The average lay price was 4.4 (34.00 investment to 10 stakes) with an
average profit per trade of 2.69.
Now on the face of it you can be forgiven for thinking that this strategy makes less profit than FHG, however
SHG is the main breadwinner over the longer term due to the fact that it produces a higher volume of
selections than FHG.
Lets look at the process of trading SHG. Again its an extremely simple system and (like FHG) relies heavily on
value prices. The major benefit of SHG is that good value is not the only reassurance you will have on your
side. Selections only qualify for this system if the first half has been lively, therefore you are safe in the
knowledge that you have everything batting for you in the second half.

Half-Time Score
Im a firm believer that the number of goals scored in the first half can have an effect on the number of goals
scored in the second half, particularly if the first half goal count is well above average. The half time score does
play a part in whether I decide to enter an SHG trade.
If the first half goal count is 3 or more I will leave the selection alone and wait for a better opportunity. Often a
lot of goals in the first half will lead to one (or both!) managers looking to tighten up at the back in the second
half and this can affect the chance of a winning trade.
I dont want to be getting involved with selections that are 3-0/0-3 etc anyway at half-time as the game could
be effectively over by then, but I also steer clear of 2-1/1-2s too. Any fixture with no more than 2 goals scored
in the first half is fine for trading.

In-Play Stats
The number of corners and shots on target between the two sides at half-time plays a major part in this
strategy. The acceptable criteria are very simple:

4 corners and 4 shots on target between the two sides.

If there are just 3 corners then I will accept a trade if there have also been at least 7 shots on target
between the two sides.

IMPORTANT: If the corner count is lower than 3 then discard the trade. Also discard the selection if the shots
on target are lower than 4, regardless of a high corner count.

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OK so lets look at an example SHG trade from Finland:

You can clearly see that the above fixture qualifies for SHG on in-play stats. The corner and shot counts are
more than sufficient, while the 1-1 HT score is within the 2 goal maximum filter at half-time.

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You can now head over to Betfair:
Lets say that the maximum lay price for value that I have listed on the daily e-mail for this game is 4.4.

The price to lay 1-1 is lower than 4.4 and so you have excellent value here to lay 1-1, especially with the very
promising in-play stats on your side.
NOTE: Although the current lay odds on the screenshot are showing 3.95 I was matched a few minutes before
this at 3.8.
Nothing left to do now but wait for a goal. It didnt take long as the away side re-took the lead on 48 minutes
and the trade was a winner.

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Red Cards
I dont trade ANY game that has seen a red card in the first half. Red cards ruin games and destroy statistics;
its simply not worth the risk. The longer a game goes on the more the team down to ten men will likely shut
up shop if theyre not losing. Dont get involved in games you shouldnt or it will take its toll on your Betfair
balance.

The Bet365 Console

The above in-play screenshots from Finland are taken from the Bet365 console. This is where I always obtain
my in-play stats at HT, it really is a fantastic website/app and Ive found it gives the most accurate
representation of virtually any game being played in world football at that time. I trust the stats and their help
in deciding on qualifiers for SHG is invaluable.
Lets take a look at a few more screenshots, these will give you a visual representation of what in-play stats I
deem acceptable for trading:

You can see in the above fixture that Roma have picked up a red card. In reality they were reduced to ten men
very early in the second half but lets pretend in this instance that they had a man dismissed in the first half.
Despite the corner and shots on target stats comfortably qualifying this would still not be a trade I would look
to get into due to the red card. In this case Roma did make a brilliant recovery to draw 2-2 but getting involved
here is more of a gamble than a trade.
Dont gamble; pick your trades based on value and with everything on your side to give you the best possible
chance of a positive outcome.

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The above game from Turkey is a little different. Firstly you can see that the in-play stats in this one dont
qualify for SHG as they are a corner short. Lets pretend that there are 4 corners in this game instead of 3 so
that on paper it is a qualifier for the system (depending on Betfair price of course).
I still wouldnt be looking to trade the above game as SHG and heres why: the away side are 1-0 down and are
yet to have a single shot on target. In situations where one team is leading at half-time the trailing side must
have made some kind of contribution to the shots on target statistics, even if its just one.
The home side dont need to score again to win the game; they may do so of course in the second half but
they dont have to if the opposition cant find the net themselves. So I do need a trailing side to have mustered
at least one SOT in the first half in order to accept the trade. This match finished 1-0.
NOTE: If the score is 0-0 at half-time and one of the two teams hasnt had a shot on target then thats not a
problem. As long as the in-play stats still qualify then the game is fine for trading.

While the above selection from the Premier League is a comfortable qualifier on in-play stats at half-time I
would discard this trade due to the 1-2 scoreline which exceeds my 2 goals maximum filter for the first half.
This match finished 1-2.

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This game from Belgium has only 3 corners at half-time. However, because the shots on target figures add up
to my minimum of 7, this is still a qualifier for SHG if the price is right. The match finished 0-2.

Finally, here is a qualifier from League One. This is a textbook SHG trade, lots of corners and plenty of shots on
target. It flies past the filters and the final score was 1-1.

Maximum Lay Prices

If Betfair is showing a lay price above 6.0 for any fixture then do not trade it. If the Betfair lay price is 6.0 or
below and is also lower than the attached value lay price in the selections e-mail then you have a possible
trade. In this instance:

If the lay price is between 5.1 and 6.0, place a lay order at 5.0 and wait to be matched in-play.
If the lay price is 5.0 or under, get matched immediately by laying at that price.

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SHG Summary

There must be no more than 2 goals scored in the first half.

In-play stats must show at least 4 corners and 4 shots on target between the two sides OR 3 corners
with at least 7 shots on target between the two sides.
If the side trailing at HT have had no shots on target then discard the trade.
Do not enter a trade with a first half red card.
Make sure that the Betfair price to lay the HT score is equal to or lower than the value price listed on
the selections e-mail.
The maximum lay price is 5.0. If the Betfair lay price is between 5.1 and 6.0 at HT then place a lay
order at 5.0 and wait to be matched in-play.

Trading on the Move

Due to the wonders of modern technology, we are no longer stuck in front of a PC and can trade anywhere we
like via smartphone, iPad, etc. I do a lot of my trading on the move and the two strategies explained in this
manual are extremely quick and simple for mobile trading.
If you havent already got it then I would strongly advise downloading Futbol24, its a fantastic mobile app that
allows you to add games from my selections e-mail to your favourites list. Futbol24 then gives you half-time
alerts for these fixtures so that you know exactly when to check in-play stats and price to see if you have a
trade. Its an app Ive been using for a long time now and I dont know what Id do without it!

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Good Luck!
There is one main attribute a trader must have to be successful: DISCIPLINE!
Both BotN strategies are extremely straightforward. The FHG selections are set-and-forget and can be set up
each morning if you dont have the time to monitor the price close to kick-off.
If you follow SHG rules to the letter then there is no thinking to be done with this strategy either; its all done
for you. Each time you find yourself thinking, hmmm this SHG selection doesnt qualify but its only one shot
on target short so what the hell Ill play it remember that each and every loss will take 3-4 winning trades to
recover.
People who trade SHG with discipline will make very nice profits and those who do not will struggle. Simple.
Money saved is the same as money won!
I made mistakes in the beginning but I am more disciplined now than I was when I first started. There is no
need to take unnecessary risks. The Team Stats software at Goal Profits gives me stats for over sixty leagues
throughout the year so I can cherry-pick the strongest trades for you.
I wish you the very best of luck with your trading. If you have any questions then feel free to contact me at
jamesl@goalprofits.com.

Kind Regards,
James

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