March 20, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice
Newsletter

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EU Imports 130,102 Tons of Rice from Asian

LDCs in First Six Months of 2014-15, Up 3%
from Last Year

Mar 19, 2015

The European Union's (EU) rice imports, including milled and semi-milled, from the Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) of Asia such as Cambodia and Myanmar under the Everything But
Arms (EBA) Agreement have reached around 130,102 tons in the first six months of the crop
year 2014-15 (September 2014 - August 2015), up about 3% from around 126,502 tons imported
during the same period last year, according to data from the European Commission (EC).
The EC data shows that imports from Cambodia (which account for about 78% of total imports
from Asian LDCs in September 2014 February 2015) declined about 11% to around 102,084
tons from around 115,219 tons during the same period last year. On the other hand, rice imports
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from Myanmar (which account for about 19% of total imports from Asian LDCs in September
2014 January 2015) increased over three times to around 25,350 tons from around 8,804 tons
during the same period last year.
Under the EBA Agreement, the EU imports rice from the LDCs at zero-percent duty. It was
basically aimed to raise incomes and living standards of farmers in the LDCs. Rice imports
(milled equivalent) from the Asian LDCs mostly Cambodia and Myanmar) increased about forty
times to around 402,000 tons in MY 2013-14 from just 10,000 tons in MY 2008-09, according to
the new Chairman of Copa-Cogeca (The united voice of farmers and their co-operatives in the
European Union) Rice Working Party.
Italy, the EUs main rice producer, has been expressing concern that the competitiveness of
Italian rice has been declining significantly due to an increase in imports from EBA countries.
The Italian government and the Ente Nazionale Risi (National Agency for Rice) have been
urging the EU to adopt a safeguard clause to curtail imports from EBA countries.

Global Rice Quotes

March 19th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 400-410

Vietnam 5% broken

355-365

India 5% broken

390-400

Pakistan 5% broken

345-355

Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

425-435

U.S. 4% broken

480-490

Uruguay 5% broken

580-590

Argentina 5% broken

570-580

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

370-380

Vietnam 25% broken

340-350

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310-320

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420

India 25% broken

360-370

U.S. 15% broken

470-480

Pakistan 25% broken

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

385-395

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

555-565

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

570-580

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

380-390

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
Vietnam Jasmine

890-900
455-465

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Mails 790-800

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super

320-330

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

Pakistan 100% broken stxd
Cambodia A1 Super

280-290

345-355

India 100% broken stxd

275-285

Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

U.S. pet food

380-390

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Brazil half grain

NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Italian Paddy Rice Quotes Mixed

Mar 19, 2015

A general rebalance of paddy quotations is taking place on Italian market, according to local
sources.. Prices are still elevated compared to the same period last year.
Below are farm gate paddy quotations supplied by Milan Grain Exchange, as of March 17:
Arborio-Volano rice was shown at 705-735 euros (about $743-774) per ton, down from 715-745
euros (about $ 753-785) per ton one week prior..
Balilla paddy prices are firm at 370-385 euros (about $390-405) per ton, unchanged from the
prior week.
Lido and similar paddy varieties are again unchanged at 360-375 euros (about $379-395) per ton.
Padano-Argo is shown at 565-665 euros (about $595-701) per ton, unchanged from the prior
week.Vialone Nano quotes seem to be recovering from a recent downtrend.. On March 17 it was
shown at 785-835 euros (about $ 827-880), up from 770-820 euros (about $ 811-864) per ton of
March 10..
Thaibonnet and similar Indica varieties are firm at 328-338 euros (about $345-356) per ton on
both weeks; Sant'Andrea is quoted 570-620 euros (about $ 601-653) per ton, unchanged from the
prior week; Ariete and similar varieties received no quotations in the last two weeks.
Carnaroli advanced to 715-745 euros (about $753-785) per ton, up from 705-735 euros (about
$743-774) per ton shown a week prior.
Baldo paddy prices were firm at 575-625 euros (about $606-659) per ton, unchanged from the
prior week.
Roma is firm at 590-620 euros (about $622-653) per ton, unchanged from the prior month.

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Selenio declined to 380-405 euros (about $400-427) per ton on March 17 from 395-420 euros
(about $416-442) per ton a week prior.

Low Domestic Prices Have Led to a decline in

SBS Rice Imports in JFY2014, Says USDA
Post
Mar 19, 2015

USDA Post reports that due to low domestic prices in 2014, Japan's food service industry, which
normally uses imported rice, has shifted to domestic rice and consecutively only 11,506 tons of
rice was contracted in the eight Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) tenders JF2014 (April 2014 March 2105). As of March 3, 2015, eight Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) tenders and thirteen
Ordinary Minimum Access (OMA) tenders had been held in JFY2014. Last month, the Post
reported that Japan may not import the targeted 100,000 tons under the SBS tenders due to
declining local prices. The SBS rice goes to retailers and foodservice users and is consumed as
table rice.
A bumper harvest in 2014 and high level of stocks from previous years have led to a 16% y/y
decline in prices. In order to avert further price falls, the Rice Stable Supply Support
Organization, a private group consisting of producers and wholesalers, has decided to hold
200,000 tons of table rice without entering the market until the price recovers by bearing their
storage costs.

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The USDA Post has estimated Japan to import around 700,000 tons of rice in 2015, up about 7%
from an estimated 650,000 tons in 2014 due to an expected decline in production.
Based on production data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the
Post reports that the 2014 rice production declined about 1.2% to around 7.583 million tons from
around 7.676 million tons in 2013. The decline is attributed to a decline in the planting area by
about 1.5% y/y to around 1.575 million hectares. Declining prices in 2014 are said to have
discouraged plantings. The Post reports that weak prices are expected to continue in 2015 as well
discouraging 2015 planting.
The Post reports that per capita consumption of table rice in Japan has been declining but that for
feed has been increasing. Per capita consumption of table rice is expected to decline to about
56.1 kilograms in 2015, which is less than half of about 11.3 kilograms in 1962. The government
has been incentivizing the conversion from production of rice for food to production for feed.
Feed production increased about 55% to around 178,000 tons in 2014 from around 115,000 tons
in 2013. Most of the OMA rice is used for production of feed.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Mar 19, 2015

Rain is expected across the Yangtze valley and western south China this week, which will
favour early rice crop growth there.
A few isolated showers are expected across north-western Pakistan this week.
Weather is expected to remain dry in India and Bangladesh this week.
In Indonesia, rain is expected across western Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Kalimantan, East
Malaysia, Sulawesi, and Java this week.
Rain is expected across central Thailand this week, which will maintain moisture for second
season rice growth.
Light rain is expected across northern Vietnam this week.
In the Philippines, rain showers are expected across north-eastern Luzon this week.
Rain is expected across northern and eastern portions of the centre-south Brazil and across
northeast Brazil this week, which could slow harvesting there.
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A few light showers are expected in north-western Argentina this week.
In the U.S., rain is expected across the Coastal Bend and southern Delta this week. Rice planting
will begin in April.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Give Back a Portion of
Yesterday's Gains but Close Far from Session
Low
Mar 19, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at
$10.925 per cwt (about $241 per ton). Rough rice futures failed to find follow-through buying
interest following yesterdays nearly 50 cent per cwt (about $11 per ton) rally. Prices pulled back
overnight and fell further upon the opening of floor trading this morning. However, the market
did manage to close well off of session lows and has maintained a good portion of gains earned
yesterday. Despite the days losses, traders see a positive tilt to the market and expectations are
for higher prices.
The other grains finished mostly lower, with only wheat managing to close higher on support
from weather concerns; Soybeans closed about 1.1% higher at $9.6500 per bushel; wheat
finished about 1.4% higher at $5.1075 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% higher at
$3.7475 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on Thursday as investors weighed the
Federal Reserve statement that indicated a rate hike would come gradually. Only the Nasdaq
traded higher. The Dow Jones industrial average fell by as much as 128 points before paring
losses and the S&P edged lower, giving back some of their major gains from Wednesday
following dovish Fed news.
The U.S. Federal Reserve removed "patient" from its statement on Wednesday, as most analysts
expected, but lowered its December rate outlook and cut economic forecasts. The U.S. 10-year
note yield held below 2%. The U.S. dollar recovered some of its recent losses. Crude oil fell
more than 3% after the Kuwaiti finance minister said OPEC had no choice but to keep
production steady. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly to 291,000 for the week ended March 14.
The national current account deficit sharply widened in the fourth quarter to the largest level
since 2012. The Philly Fed index showed a modest increase in manufacturing in March. Leading
indicators rose 0.2%, in-line with estimates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 117
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points, or 0.66%, at 17,958. The S&P 500 fell 12 points, or 0.58%, to 2,087, with energy leading
nine sectors lower and health care the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded up 5 points, or 0.10%,
to 4,987. Gold is trading about 1.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.9% lower, and the
U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.8% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 700 contracts traded, up from 227 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest the number of contracts outstanding on Wednesday decreased by 149 contracts to
8,702.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Slip as

Exports Disappoint; Dollar Regains Most of
Its Losses
Mar 19, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker after long grain export sales and shipment figures
disappointed traders coupled with fact that the dollar regained most of its loses from
yesterday.Analysts note that export sales figures will have to increase significantly if this rally is
to be sustainable and that will be unlikely unless Venezuela and/or Iraq show interest in U.S.
origin.
In the meantime, the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on
March 12, totaled 76,500 tons, which was 7% lower than last week but 11% lower than the prior
4-week average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including 36,200 tons to Japan, 22,000
tons to South Korea, 9,000 tons to Saudi Arabia, 2,100 tons to unknown destinations, and 2,000
tons to Colombia.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 41,800 tons, which was 21% lower than last week and 15% lower
than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included 17,000 tons to Mexico, 13,100
tons to Japan, 3,600 tons to Saudi Arabia, 2,400 tons to Canada, and 2,300 tons to Jordan.

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Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Sharply Lower Overnight as
Market Reevaluates Yesterdays Move
Mar 19, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently listed 28.5 cents per cwt (about $6 per
ton) lower at $10.760 per cwt (about $237 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading higher this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% higher,
wheat is listed about 0.4% higher and corn is currently noted unchanged.U.S. stock index futures
indicated a flat to lower open on Thursday, after closing sharply higher Wednesday following a
dovish statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which indicated that rate hike may come later
rather than sooner. The Fed dropped the word "patient" from its March meeting statement, a
subtle indication that the era of zero interest rates could end in the coming months.
However, the U.S. central bank was seen as broadly dovish, with the Federal Open Market
Committee lowering its December rate outlook by about 50 basis points. Weekly jobless claims
rose slightly to 291,000 for the week ended March 14. The national current account deficit
sharply widened in the fourth quarter to the largest level since 2012. Data expected on Thursday
include the Philly Fed's business outlook index at 10.00 a.m. ET, along with the Conference
Board's Leading Indicator for February. Across the Atlantic, European equities traded higher
after the Fed's dovish comments, with all European indices and sectors except the German DAX
trading in positive territory. Gold is currently trading about 1.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading
about 3.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher at 8:00am Chicago
time.

Pakistan FY 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production

Estimated to Decline 19% y/y to 8.437
Million Tons
Mar 19, 2015

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In the February Crop Monitoring System Bulletin, the National Space Agency of Pakistan
(SUPARCO) and UNs Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO have estimated Pakistan FY
2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production to decline about 19% to around 8.437 million tons
(around 5.65 million tons, basis milled) from around 10.04 million tons (around 6.72 million
tons, basis milled) produced last year.
The decline is attributed to floods that hit the Punjab state in the month of August 2014 having
damaged around 116,700 hectares of paddy fields. Over 217,000 tons of paddy is said to be lost
in the Punjab state. The government of Punjab has announced a compensation of Rs.16 billion
(around $159 million) to the flood-affected communities.SUPARCO is estimating FY 2014-15
paddy rice acreage at around 3.285 million hectares and yield at around 2.568 tons per hectare.
According to SUPARCO, January received slight rain after dry periods in November and
December, and received heavy rains in February, The weather was cool in February and is
expected to be favorable (due to expected heavy rains) for the cultivation of ongoing rabi crops
such as wheat.
Paddy prices of both non-basmati and basmati, which began to decline since November
2014 continued to decline in January due to increased supplies from the just completed harvests.
Prices of basmati dropped to around Rs.1,500 - 1,600 per 40 kilograms (around $368 - $392 per
ton) in February from around Rs.4,500 - 4,800 per 40 kilograms (around $1,121 - $1,196 per ton)
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in the beginning of November. Prices of non-basmati prices declined to around Rs.700 - 800 per
40 kilograms (around $172 - $196 per ton) in February from Rs.900 - Rs.1,000 per 40 kilograms
(around $224 - $249 per ton) in November 2014.
Meanwhile, experts have been urging the government to take appropriate measures to increase
fertilizer production to around 5 million tons from the existing 3.1 million tons. Pakistan needs
about 4 million tons of fertilizer yearly for paddy cultivation. production reaches 5 million tons.
USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to decline
about 3% to around 6.5 million tons (around 9.75 million tons, basis paddy) from around 6.7
million tons (around 10.05 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14.

Vietnam Exports About 443,639 Tons Rice

During January 1 March 10, 2015
Mar 19, 2015

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Vietnam exported about 443,639 tons of rice in January 1 - March 10, 2014, down about 64%
from about 1.22 million tons of rice exported in in first three months of 2014, according to data
from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at
about $452 per ton (FOB), up about 4% per ton from same time last year.During March 1-10,
2015, Vietnam exported about 22,437 tons of rice, down about 96% from about 583,294 tons
rice exported in full month of March 2014, and down about 89% from about 200,814 tons rice
exported in full month of February 2015. Average export prices in so far in March stands at
about $427 per ton, down about 2.7% from a year ago, and down about 6% per ton from a month
ago.

Thai Court to Prosecute Former Prime

Minister in Rice Pledging Case
Mar 19, 2015

Thailand's Supreme Court has decided to prosecute the former Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra for her alleged role in encouraging corruption in the rice pledging scheme introduced
by her government in October 2011, according to Bloomberg.The Supreme Court's Criminal
Division for Holders of Political Positions will hear the case against the former PM. According
to local sources, a panel of nine judges have decided to accept the case against the former PM
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and has scheduled the first hearing on May 19, 2015.Ms.Yingluck has been charged with
dereliction of duty and with abuse of authority under Section 157 of the Criminal Code and
Section 123/1 of the 1999 Counter Corruption Act, according to local sources. She reiterated her
innocence in the case after the decision was announced.The former PM was impeached by the
Thai National Legislative Assembly on January 23, 2015 banning her from active politics for
five years. If found guilty in the present case, she may have to face a ten-year jail term,
according to local sources.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has also advised the government to file a
civil suit against the former PM to recover the money lost in the rice program, which the Finance
Ministry claims to be about 600 billion baht (around $18 billion).The Yingluck-led government
promised to buy paddy from farmers at nearly 50% above market prices under the controversial
rice pledging scheme. While Yingluck claims the scheme was aimed at reducing inequality
among farmers by boosting rural incomes, many opined that it was ill-conceived, encouraged
corruption and was a form of vote-buying. The scheme is being blamed to have pushed up
market prices and impacted Thai rice exports severely.

Water Rationing Measures in Taiwan May

Reduce 2015 Rice Production by 10% y/y but
No Increase in Imports Seen, Says USDA
Post
Mar 19, 2015

USDA Post reports that water rationing measures in Taiwan due to extended drought conditions
are likely to reduce 2015 rice production by about 10% or about 110,000 tons over last year.
USDA forecasts Taiwan's 2015 milled rice production at around 1.1 million tons, down about
9.6% from an estimated 1.22 million tons in 2014.
However, the Post says rice imports are unlikely to increase due to sufficient stocks from
increased harvests in recent years. It expects no changes in 2015 country specific quota (CSQ)
allotments and tender schedules. According to Taiwans WTO accession agreement, Taiwan's
rice TRQ (tariff rate quota) is 126,000 tons (milled basis). Of this the U.S. country specific quota
(CSQ) allocation is 56,000 tons. The Post estimates Taiwan's 2015 rice imports at around
134,000 tons.

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Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) has decided to implement water rationing
measures in response to drought conditions in three stages. First stage began on December 26,
2014 and has reportedly reduced water supply to about 44,000 hectares of annual agricultural
area. Of this 23,000 hectares are under rice cultivation. The Post estimates Taiwan 2015 rice
acreage at around 248,000 hectares, down about 8.5% from an estimated 271,000 last year.The
Post reports that rice farmers would be provided with additional subsidies to the extent of
about NTD $80,000 (around $2,545) per hectare to substitute for losses from decline in
production. However, amount of compensation depends on land use, says USDA Post.While
agriculture accounts of 70% of total annual water usage in Taiwan, industry and households
account for 10% and 20% respectively.
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Vietnam Rice sellers Lower Some of Their

quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Today
Mar 19, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $10
per ton and $5 per ton to around $355-$365 per ton and around $305-$315 per ton, respectively,
today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, down about $10 per ton from yesterday.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on
Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$360 - $370, about a $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $310 - $320
per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, on par with Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around
$380 - $390 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $15 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, down about $5 per
ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5
per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.

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