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7.1 Introduction
The theory of probability was developed towards the end of the 18th century and
its history suggests that it developed with the study of games and chance, such as
rolling a dice, drawing a card, flipping a coin etc. Apart from these, uncertainty
prevailed in every sphere of life. For instance, one often predicts: "It will probably
rain tonight." "It is quite likely that there will be a good yield of cereals this year"
and so on. This indicates that, in laymans terminology the word probability thus
connotes that there is an uncertainty about the happening of events. To put
probability on a better footing we define it. But before doing so, we have to
explain a few terms."
7.2 Trial - A procedure or an experiment to collect any statistical data such as
rolling a dice or flipping a coin is called a trial.
Random Trial or Random Experiment
When the outcome of any experiment cannot be predicted precisely then the
experiment is called a random trial or random experiment. In other words, if a
random experiment is repeated under identical conditions, the outcome will vary at
random as it is impossible to predict about the performance of the experiment. For
example, if we toss a honest coin or roll an unbiased dice, we may not get the same
results as our expectations.
7.3 Sample space
The totality of all the outcomes or results of a random experiment is denoted by
Greek alphabet or English alphabets and is called the sample space. Each
outcome or element of this sample space is known as a sample print.
Event
Any subset of a sample space is called an event. A sample space S serves as the
universal set for all questions related to an experiment 'S' and an event A w.r.t it is
a set of all possible outcomes favorable to the even t A
For example, A random experiment :- flipping a coin twice
Sample space :- or S = {(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT)}
The question : "both the flipps show same face".
Therefore, the event A : { (HH), (TT) }
Complementary Events
Let S be the sample space for an experiment and A be an event in S. Then A is a
subset of S. Hence , the complement of A in S is also an event in S which
contains the outcomes which are not favorable to the occurrence of A i.e. if A
occurs, then the outcome of the experiment belongs to A, but if A does not occur,
then the outcomes of the experiment belongs to
It is obvious that A and
= and A
= S.
q = or q = 1 - m/n or q = 1 - p.
Now note that the probability q is nothing but the probability of the complementary
event A i.e.
Thus p ( ) = 1 - p or p ( ) = 1 - p ( )
so that p (A) + p ( ) = 1 i.e. p + q = 1
Relative Frequency Definition
The classical definition of probability has a disadvantage i.e. the words equally
likely are vague. In fact, since these words seem to be synonymous with "equally
probable". This definition is circular as it is defining (in terms) of itself. Therefore,
the estimated or empirical probability of an event is taken as the relative frequency
of the occurrence of the event when the number of observations is very large.
2. Van Mises Statistical (or Empirical) Definition
If trials are to be repeated a great number of times under essentially the same
condition then the limit of the ratio of the number of times that an event happens to
the total number of trials, as the number of trials increases indefinitely is called the
probability of the happening of the event.
It is assumed that the limit exists and finite uniquely. Symbolically p (A) = p
=
The two definitions are apparently different but both of them can be reconciled the
same sense.
Example Find the probability of getting heads in tossing a coin.
Solution: Experiment : Tossing a coin
Sample space: S = { H, T} n (S) = 2
A = { H} n (A) = 1
Therefore, p (A) =
or 0.5
Therefore, p (A) =
Example Two dice are rolled. Find the probability that the score on the second die
is greater than the score on the first die.
Solution: Experiment: Two dice are rolled
Sample space : S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6) (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2,
4), (2, 6)}... (6, 1), (6, 2) (, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }
n (S) = 6 6 = 36
Event A : The score on the second die > the score on the 1st die.
i.e. A = { (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6) (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) (3, 4), (3, 5),
(3, 6) (4, 5), (4, 6) (5, 6)}
n (A) = 15
Therefore, p (A) =
Example A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting at least one
head.
Solution: Experiment: A coin is tossed three times.
Sample space: S = {(H H H), (H H T), (HTH), (HTT), (THT), (TTH), (THH),
(TTT) }
n (S) = 8
Event A : getting at least one head so that A : getting no head at all
= { (TTT) n ( ) = 1
P( )=
Therefore, P (A) = 1 - P ( A ) =
Example A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white
balls and 5 blue balls. Determine the probability that the ball drawn is (i) red (ii)
white (iii) blue (iv) not red (v) red or white.
Solution: Let R, W and B denote the events of drawing a red ball, a white ball and
a blue ball respectively.
(i)
Tuesday Wednesday
Friday - Saturday
Wednesday Thursday
Saturday - Sunday and
Sunday - Monday
There are 7 outcomes and 2 are favorable to the 53rd Sunday.
Example If four ladies and six gentlemen sit for a photograph in a row at random,
what is the probability that no two ladies will sit together ?
Solution:
Now if no two ladies are to be together, the ladies have 7 positions, 2 at ends and 5
between the gentlemen
Arrangement L, G1, L, G2, L, G3, L, G4, L, G5, L, G6, L
Example In a class there are 13 students. 5 of them are boys and the rest are girls.
Find the probability that two students selected at random will be both girls.
Solution: Two students out of 13 can be selected in
of 8 can be selected in
ways.
Example A box contains 5 white balls, 4 black balls and 3 red balls. Three balls
are drawn randomly. What is the probability that they will be (i) white (ii) black
(iii) red ?
Solution: Let W, B and R denote the events of drawing three white, three black
and three red balls respectively.
In general, if the letters A and B stands for any two events, then
A and B)
AB
n (AB) = 6
Corollary
You are flipping a coin and wanting to find the probability of at least one head or
at least one tail. Now it is clear that the probability of one coin flip landing heads is
1/2 and that of one coin flip landing tails is also 1/2. Now these two events are
mutually exclusive as you cannot expect a coin land both heads and tails in one
trial. Therefore you can determine the required probability by the mere addition of
the two probabilities:
(or certainty).
Thus if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then the probability that either
A or B will happen is the sum of the probabilities of A and B i.e. P (A + B) = P(A)
+ P(B)
Odds In Favor And Against
If P is the probability that an event will occur and q (= 1 - p) is the probability of
the non-occurrence of the event; then we say that the odds in favor of the event
occurring are p : q
(p to q) and the odds against its occurring are q : p.
For example, if the event consists of drawing a card if club from the deck of 52
cards, then the odds in favor are
Similarly the odds against a card of diamond would be 3 : 1. The odds in favor of 4
or 6 in a
single toss of a fair die are
For example, first flip a penny, then the nickel and finally flip the dime.
for a nickel
probability of heads is
for a dime
for a penny
or 0.125. (Note
Example Three machines I, II and III manufacture respectively 0.4, 0.5 and 0.1 of the total
production. The percentage of defective items produced by I, II and III is 2, 4 and 1 percent
respectively for an item randomly chosen, what is the probability it is defective ?
Solution:
Example In shuffling a pack of cards, 4 are accidentally dropped one after another.
Find the chance that the missing cards should be one from each suit.
Solution: Probability of 4 missing cards from different suits are as follows:
Let H, D, C and S denote heart, diamond, club and spade cards respectively
respectively.
Example Tom and his wife Jenny appear in an interview for two vacancies in the
same post. The chance of Toms selection is 1/7 and that of Jennys selection is
1/5. What is the probability that (i) both of them will be selected (ii) only one of
them will be selected (iii) none of them will be selected.
Solution: P (Toms selection) = 1/7 P (wife Jennys selection) = 1/5
Note that when we say only Tom is selected. Simultaneously we mean Jenny is
rejected. Thus the two events become independent and hence multiplication rule is
applied . Also Toms selection and Jennys selection in this case is a mutually
exclusive. Hence finally addition rule is applied.
Since there are 26 red cards of which 13 are diamonds, the probability that the card
is diamond is
occurred is
The probability of B under the condition that A has occurred is known as condition
probability and it is denoted by P (B/A) . Thus P (B/A) = . It should be observed
that the probability of the event B is increased due to the additional information
that the event A has occurred.
Justification :- P (A/B) =
Similarly P(A/B) =
In both the cases if A and B are independent events then P (A/B) = P (A) and
P(B/A) = P(B)
Therefore P(A) =
or P(B) =
Propositions
(1) If A and B are independent events then A and B' are also independent where B'
is the complementary event B.
(2) If A and B are independent events then A' and B' are also independent events.
(3) Two independent events cannot be mutually exclusive.
(4) De Morgans Laws : P (A B)' = P (A' B')
P (A B)' = P (A' B' )
Example A bag contains 6 red and 4 blue balls. One ball is drawn at random from
the first bag and put into the second bag. A ball is then drawn from the second bag.
What is the probability that is red ?
Solution:
Let A = getting a red ball from the 1st bag.
B = getting a blue from the first bag.
C = getting a red ball from the second bag after the ball drawn from the first
bag is put into it.
Since there are 10 balls in the first bag out of which 6 are red and 4 are blue.
Suppose that A has occurred. Then a red ball is transferred into second bag. The
probability of getting a red ball from the second bag when a red ball is got from the
first is P (C/A) = 5/11
The probability of getting a red ball from the first bag and a red ball from the
second is
Now, suppose the event B has occurred then a blue ball is transferred into the
second bag. There are now 11 balls in the second bag out of which 4 are red.
Example In a certain school, 25% of the boys and 10% of the girls are studying
French. The girls constitute 60% of the students boy. If a student is selected at
random and is studying French, determine the probability that the student is a girl.
Solution: Let there be 100 students. 60% of which are girls.
i.e. number of girls is 60 and number of boys is 40.
Example A purse contains 6 silver coins and 3 copper coins. Another purse
contains 4 silver coins and 5 copper coins. A purse is selected at random and a coin
is drawn from it. What is the probability that it is a silver coin?
Solution:
Let A = the first purse selected
B = the second purse is selected
C = a silver coin is drawn from the purse
Since there are two purses
P (A) =
and P (B) =
Suppose the event A has occurred. Since there are 6 silver coins out of 9
P (C/A) =
The probability of getting the first purse and a silver coin from it is
P (A C) = P (A) . P (C/ A) =
P ( B C) = P (B) P (C/ B) =
Now A C and B C are mutually exclusive.
P (A C B C) = P (A C) + P (B C) =
, in B as
, in C as
and in D
as
. To qualify he must pass in A and atleast two other subjects. What is the
probability that he passes ?
Solution:
Example Probability that a man will be alive 25 years is 0.3 and that his wife will
be alive 25 years is 0.4. Find the probability that 25 years hence (1) Both will be
alive (2) Only man will be alive (3) Only wife will be alive (4) At least one of
them will be alive.
Solution:
Let A : the man will be alive 25 years hence P(A) = 0.3
Let B : His wife will be alive 25 years hence P(B) = 0.4
(1) P (both will be alive)
= P (A) P (B)
= 0.3 0.4 = 12
= P (A) P (B)
= P (A) [1 - P (B)]
= 0.3 [1 - 0.4]
= 0.3 0.6 = 0.18
= P (B) P (A)
= P(B) [1 - P(A)]
= 0.4 [1 - 0.3]
= 0.4 0.7 = 0.28
= 1 - P(A) . P(B)
= 1 - (0.7) (0.6)
= 1 - 0.42
= 0.58
Example A box contains 6 white and 4 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random
one after the other. Replace the first ball after noting its color. Find the probability
that (1) both are white (2) both are black (3) the first is white, the second is black
(4) the first black the second white (5) one white and one black.
Solution: Since the first ball is replaced, the outcome of the second draw is no way
affected i.e. the events are independent.
Example From a deck of 52 cards, cards are drawn randomly without replacement.
What is the probability of drawing a King of hearts at the third attempt ? If it was
drawn at the 15th attempt, what was the probability ?
Solution: Since the cards are not replaced,
Example One card is drawn randomly from a pack of 52 cards and put aside. What
is the probability of drawing an ace or a king in a single draw, from the remaining
51 cards ?
Solution: The probability of the required draw depends upon the results of the first
draw. There are three cases (1) First card is an ace (2) a king (3) neither an ace nor
a king.
(1) P (A) =
Now in the remaining lot of 51 cards, there are 3 aces and 4 kings.
(2) P (A) =
Now in the remaining lot of 51 cards, there are now 4 aces and 3 kings.
Required probability
Example The odds in favor of A winning a race against B are 5 : 2. If three races
are attended, what are the odds in favor of A winning at least one race ?
Solution: P (A winning) =
P (A losing) =
P (A winning the race at least once)
= 1 - P ( A losing all)
= 1 - P (A losing first) P (A losing second) P (A losing third)
=1-
\
99 = n - 1
100 = n
\
7.7 Theoretical Distributions
Random variable and probability distributions
Random variables : When we assign a number to each point of a sample space,
we have a function which is defined on the sample space. This function is called a
random variable (or stochastic variable).
It is usually denoted by bold letters like X or Y.
Consider two independent tosses of a fair coin
\ S = { (HH), (HT), (TH), (TT) }
Let X denote the number of heads.
Then X (HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X(TH) = 1 and X(TT) = 0
i.e. X = 0, 1, 2. Here X is known as a random variable. Thus a random variable is
one, which denotes the numerical value of an outcome, of a random experiment.
(1) If the random variable X takes only finite values or countably infinite values,
then X is known as a discrete variable
(2) If the random variable takes the uncountably infinite values between a specified
range or limit, it is called as continuous random variable.
For example : X denotes the age of a person.
Discrete probability distribution
Return to the above given example of tossing of a fair coin twice.
S = { (HH), (HT), (TH), (TT) }
Then X (HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X (TH) = 1 and X(TT) = 0
Also P (HH) =
, P (HT) =
, P (TH) =
and P (HH) =
P(x)
0 or 0.25
1
2 or 0.25
or 0.50
The probability graph can be obtained by using a bar chart as shown in figure 1 or
a Histogram as shown in figure 2.
Total of probabilities of discrete random variables: As you have noted from the
probability distribution table or from the bar chart (in which the sum of ordinates
i.e. heights of bar is 1) and from the Histogram (in which sum of the rectangular
area is 1), the sum (total) of probabilities of all values of X always equal to 1.
Thus, if the random variable X = X1, X2 , X3, ......Xi , ......Xn and Xi each is
associated with a number Pi i.e. X1 with P1, X2 with P2 ......., Xn = Pn. Then Pi is
called probabilities of Xi and is denoted by P (Xi ) or simply P(X) which satisfies
(1) P (Xi) > 0
(2)
then P (Xi ) or P(X) is called the probability mass function of the
discrete random variable X.
i.e.
P(X)
X1 X2
X3 ......... Xn
P1
P3 ......... Pn
P2
Mean ( X or ) =
Therefore
or =
= E (X)
i.e. x2 =
Example A business can make a profit of $2000/- with the probability 0.4 or it can
have a loss of $1000/- with the probability 0.6. What is the expected profit ?
Solution: The discrete random variable x is
x1 = $ 2000 (profit)
x2 = - $1000 (loss)
=
Example Two dice are thrown. Find the mathematical expression of the sum of the
points obtained.
Solution : Let X = sum of points obtained.
P (Xi) =
E (x) =
E(x) = 7
Example Given the following probability distribution .
x : 0,
1,
2,
3, 4,
5, 6,
Pi : 0, 2 , 2 , , 3, 2, 2 2 ,
7
72 + l
= 1/10 or = -1 (discarded)
= 102 + l
=5
= 0.5
8. Binomial Distribution
Bernoullis trials : A series of independent trials which can be resulted in one of
the two mutually exclusive possibilities 'successes' or 'failures' such that the
probability of the success (or failures) in each trials is constant, then such repeated
independent trials are called as "Bernoullis trials".
A discrete variable which can results in only one of the two outcomes (success or
failure) is called Binomial.
For example, a coin flip, the result of an examination success or failures, the result
of a game - win or loss etc. The Binomial distribution is also known as Bernoullis
distribution, which expresses probabilities of events of dichotomous nature in
repeated trials.
When do we get a Binomial distribution ?
The following are the conditions in which probabilities are given by binomial
distribution.
1. A trial is repeated 'n' times where n is finite and all 'n' trials are identical.
2. Each trial (or you can call it an event) results in only two mutually
exclusive, exhaustive but not necessarily equally likely possibilities, success
or failure.
3. The probability of a "success" outcome is equal to some percentage which is
identified as proportion, (or p)
4. This proportion (or p), remains constant throughout all events (or trials). It
is defined as the ratio of the number of successes to the number of trials.
5. The events (or trials) are independent.
6. If probability of success is p or , then the probability of failures is 1 - p or 1
- this is denoted by q. Thus p + q = 1.
Suppose a coin is flipped twice. Let p (or ) be the probability of getting heads
and q the probability of tails, such that p + q = 1 (note that p = q = 1/2 if the coin is
fair) Then there are three possible outcomes which are given below.
by,
Example What is the expression of heads if an unbiased coin is tossed 12 times.
Solution: Since the expression of x in a binomial distribution is given by,
E (x) = np where n = 12 and p = 0.5 .
We could expect 12 0.5 = 6 heads.
Example For a Binomial distribution, mean is 2 and standard deviation is 1. Find
all the constants of the distribution.
Solution: We are given, Mean () = n p = 2 and S.D. =
Example Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least
three dice to show 5 or 6?
Solution: Let P = probability (showing 5 or 6) = 2/6 = 1/3
q = 1 - p = 1- 1/3 = 2/3
n = 6 and r = 3
Also p (x = r) = probability (at least 3 dice will show 5 or 6 in one trial)
Using the 'complement' theorem
p (x = r) = 1 - [p (x = 0) + p (x = 1) + p (x = 2)]
Therefore in 100 sets = N p (r) = 100 (0.171) 17 times you can expect to get at least
7 heads.
that the probability of getting at least one success, is just greater than
Solution:
Let 'n' be the required number of trials to get the probability of at least one success
which is ,
1 - n C 0 P 0 Q n-0 [ since probability (at least one success) = 1 - p (x = 0)
i.e. 1 - probability (No success)]
Example Assume that the probability of a bomb dropped from an aero plane,
striking a target is 1/5. If 6 bombs are dropped, find the probability that
Example The probability of a man hitting a target is 1/3. How many must he fire
so that the probability of hitting the target, at least once, is more than 90% ?
Solution: Here p = 1/3 and q = 2/3 and n = ?
Now, p (hitting the target at least once) > 90%
p ( x 1) = 1 - p (x = 0) must be greater than 90%
Therefore, he must fire at least 6 times so that the probability of hitting the target at
least once is more than 90%
Example If an average 8 ships out of 10 trials arrive safely at a port. Find the mean
and standard deviation of the number of ships arriving safely out of the total of
1600 ships.
Solution: p = 0.8 therefore q = 1 - p = 1- 0.8 = 0.2 and n = 1600
Mean (m) = n p = 1600 0.8 = 1280
Hence the mean and standard deviation of ships, returning safely respectively 1280
and 16.
Example In a hurdle race, a player has to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he
will clear each hurdle is 5/6. What is the probability that he will knock down fewer
than 2 hurdles ?
Solution: n = 10, q = probability that he will clear each hurdle = 5/6
p = probability that he will knock down = 1 - 5/6 = 1/6
Therefore, p (knocking down fewer than 2 hurdles) = p (0) + p (1)
Example The probability that a man aged 60 will live to be 70 is 0.65. What is the
probability that out of 10 men, now 60, at least 7 will live to be 70?
Solution: P = The probability that a man aged 60 will live to be 70 = 65
q = 1 - P = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35
Number of men ( n ) = 10
Probability that at least 7 men will live to 70
= P ( 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 )
Example A and B take turns in throwing dice. The first to throw 10 is awarded the
prize, show that if A has the first throw, their chance of winning are in the ratio 12
: 11.
Solution: The combinations of throwing 10 from two dice can be (6 + 4), (4 + 6),
(5 + 5).
The number of combination is 3
Total combinations from two dice = 6 x 6 = 36
If A is to win, he should throw 10 in either the first, the third, the fifth, ... throws.
Their respective probabilities are P1 Q2 P, Q4P1.....
Among all the probability curves, the normal curve is the most important one. The
corresponding function is called the normal probability function and the
probability distribution is called the normal distribution. The normal distribution
can be considered as the limiting form of the Binomial Distribution, however n, the
number of trials, is very large and neither P nor q is very small.
The normal distribution is given by
Solution:
The Normal Curve: The shape of a normal curve is like a bell. It is symmetrical
about the maximum ordinate If P and Q are two points on the x-axis (see figure),
the shaded are PQRS, bounded by the portion of the curve RS, the ordinates at P
and Q and the x-axis is equal to the probability that the variate x lies between x = a
and x = b at P and Q respectively. We have already seen that the total area under a
normal curve is unity. Any probability distribution, defined this way is known as
the normal distribution. The distribution can be completely known if we know the
values of m and s. Therefore m and s are known as the parameters of the
distribution. The normal distribution with mean m and standard deviation s is
denoted by N (m, s ).
2. We know that the area under the normal curve is equivalent to the
probability of randomly drawing a value in the given range. The area is the
greatest in the middle, where the "hump" (where mean, mode and median
coincide) and then thin out towards out on the either sides of the curve, i.e.
tails, but never becomes zero. In other words, the curve never intersects xaxis at any finite point. i.e. x-axis is its Asymptote.
3. Since the curve is symmetrical about mean. The first quartile Q1and the third
quartile Q3 lie at the same distance on the two sides of the mean . The
distance of any quartile from is 0.6745 units. Thus,
4. Since the normal curve is symmetrical its skewness is zero and kurtosis is 3.
The curve is meso kurtic.
approximately.
6. As discussed earlier, the probability for the variable to lie in any interval ( a,
b ) in the range of variable is given by the are under the normal curve, the
two ordinates x = a and x = b, and the x-axis.
Q1 and Q3
Mean deviation
Inter-quartile range.
ii.
iii.
Q1 = -
= 50 -
15 = 40
Also Q3 = + - 50 + 15 = 60
The mean deviation is =
=
15 = 12
Inter quartile range = Q 3 - Q 1 = 60 - 40 = 20
The Standard Normal Variate (Z-Score): The problem of finding the probability
reduces to finding the area between the two ordinates. For different values
of m and s we get different normal curves, which multiplies it into too many
problems if we are to find the area between the given values for different curves
with different m and s .
All such problems can be reduced to a single one by reducing all normal
distributions to a single normal distribution called 'Standardized Normal
Distribution' or to what is known as the z-score.
Example For the z-score, find the probability that z lies between (i) 0 and 1.98 (ii)
-0.68 and 0 (iii) 1.35 to 2.18 ( iv) -2.18 to - 1.35 (v) To the left of -0.6 (vi) To the
right of z = -1.28 (vii) -2.18 to 1.35
Solution : Here we are given z-scores, we have only to refer to the table and
find the areas corresponding to these numbers and add or subtract accordingly as
the numbers are negative or positive.
i) From the table z = 1.98 gives z = 1.98 is 0.4762
Thus P ( 0 z 1.98 ) = 0.4762 i.e. 47% of area.
Note : For z = 1.18 looking into the table of z-score, first find 4.9 in the first
column and move to your right along the same horizontal row till you get column
with head 0.08. The intersection of the two is 0.4762 (refer to Table 1)
See this First column 0.01
(z) 1.9
ii.
0.02
.............0.08
0.09
0.4767
iii) Area from 0 to 1.35 is 0.4115 and from 0 to 2.18 is 0.4854. The required area is
the difference between the two areas.
P ( 1.35 z 2.18 = 0.4854
- 0.4115
= 0.739
i.e. 7% of area.
v)
Example In a sample of 1000 cases, the mean of a certain test is 14 and standard
deviation is 2.5. Assuming the distribution to be normal.
1) How many students score between 14 and 15 ?
2) How many score above 18 ?
3) How many score below 18 ?
4) How many score 16 ?
Solution : n = 1000, = 14 and = 2.5
(1)
z=
Area right to 1.6
= 0.5 - Area ( z = 0 to z = 1.6 )
= 0.5 - P ( 0 z 1.6)
= 0.5 - 0.4452
= 0.0548
Therefore, the number of students score above 16 = nP
= 1000 0.0548
= 54.8 = 55
3)
z=
Area left to z = -2.4
= 0.5 - Area ( z = 0 to z = 2.4)
= 0.5 - 0.4918 = 0.0082
Therefore, the number of students score
below 8 = NP
= 1000 0.0082
= 8.2
=8
4)
1.5
1.6
1.7
0.93319
0.94520
0.95543
.8
0.96407