National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook

Predictive Services
National Interagency Fire Center
Issued: March 1, 2015
Next Issuance: April 1, 2015

Outlook Period March, April & May through June 2015

Executive Summary
The March, April and May through June 2015 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in
this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services
Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
March
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential
exists across much of the Hawaiian Islands.
- Below normal significant wildland fire potential
is expected for the Southeast from Texas to the
mid-Atlantic as well as Puerto Rico.
- Normal significant
elsewhere.

wildland

fire

potential

April
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential
will develop throughout the Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes.
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential
will continue across much of Hawaii.
- Below normal significant wildland fire potential
will continue along the coastal plain of the
Southeast and through central Texas as well as
Puerto Rico.
May through June
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential
will develop across portions of Southern
California. Above normal significant wildland fire
potential will continue across much of Hawaii.
- Above normal significant wildland fire potential
will reduce to normal across the Mississippi
Valley and the Great Lakes.
- Below normal significant wildland fire potential
will develop across the Southwest and continue
on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts.

Past Weather and Drought

Major winter storms continued to plague the eastern U.S. in February with heavy snow and freezing
rain across the Eastern Seaboard. By mid-month a deep low pressure trough sent bitter cold and
winter precipitation well into the South. In contrast, it was quite dry over the western half of the country
with the exception of the Rocky Mountains where snowfall was plentiful. The last week of February
introduced a pattern change to the West with a series of low pressure systems delivering widespread
rainfall to southern California and Arizona. The Great Basin and central Rockies also benefited from
precipitation as this pattern opened up opportunities for additional snowpack to close out the month.
Temperatures were split from west to east in February with much above normal in the western U.S.
and well below normal in the eastern U.S.
Most of the nation received less than normal precipitation in February, especially the Great Basin and
Gulf Coastal regions. The Central Rockies and adjacent Plains saw much above normal precipitation.
Extreme to exceptional drought remained over California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon.
Extreme to exceptional drought also remained along the border of Oklahoma and Texas.
Left: Departure from Normal Temperature (top) and Percent of Normal Precipitation (bottom) (from High Plains
Regional Climate Center). Right: U.S. Drought Monitor (top) and Drought Outlook (bottom) (from National Drought
Mitigation Center and the Climate Prediction Center)

Weather and Climate Outlooks

ENSO-neutral conditions continue. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern
Pacific. There is still a chance of weak El Nio developing within the Northern Hemisphere late winter
and early spring and ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.
For March, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a higher probability of warmer-thannormal conditions in Alaska and all of the western U.S. Below normal temperatures are anticipated in
the northeastern quarter of the U.S. Precipitation is expected to be above median in March for the
southern half of Alaska, the Four Corners region and the southeastern U.S. from the Gulf Coast
through the Tennessee Valley. Below median precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and
northern California, while the remainder of the U.S. should receive near median precipitation.
For April through June, above normal temperatures are expected to continue for Alaska and across
the West. Above normal temperatures are also favored this spring for the northeastern quarter of the
U.S. from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Normal temperatures are
expected for the rest of the nation. Precipitation is expected to remain above median for the Four
Corners region with median precipitation elsewhere.
Top row: One-month (March) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). Bottom row: Three month (April-June)
outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right). (from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA)

March 2015

April - June 2015

Fuel Conditions
Wet weather patterns across the southern U.S. are keeping fuels
wet through most of the Southern Area. However, in Oklahoma
weather-driven events will likely lead to short duration peaks in
fire activity that will continue into the spring.
Fuel moistures and drier-than-usual conditions across portions of
the Mississippi and Missouri River areas as well as the Great
Lakes will increase the likelihood for early season pre-greenup
fires. These conditions will likely return to normal in April.
Significant fire potential is low for most of the Southwest entering
the spring season. Fuels are abundant in many areas but the
expectation is that precipitation inputs will continue and that fire
activity will continue below normal.
Southern California will begin to see fuel conditions become a
concern in May thanks in large part to long term drought. Dry
conditions will gradually spread northward into June.
Limited snowpack in Alaska is trending toward the likelihood of
fuels becoming exposed earlier than usual which will in turn lead
to drier-than-usual conditions early.
The Hawaiian Islands will also continue to see some drier-thanusual fuels. These conditions are likely to only cause short term
concerns.
The remainder of the U.S. is out of fire season. Pre green-up fire
activity may become a concern in March and April in areas that
are dominated by grass fuel types that are available to burn
before fuel moistures rise.

Fire Season Timing

As spring develops and pre-greenup conditions become
prevalent, expect to see short-duration spikes in fire potential
and scattered large fires, especially in the finer fuels with any
associated wind events, throughout the majority of the U.S. This
is not uncommon during this time of year.
Portions of the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys as well as the
Great Lakes states are likely to see somewhat above normal
activity during the early season.
Portions of California will likely see increased activity earlier than
usual thanks to the dryness from the long term drought. This will
primarily begin in the south and spread northward.
Alaska is likely to see earlier-than-normal development of fire
activity in large part due to fuels becoming exposed sooner
thanks to the limited snowpack.
In the Southwest, little concern for early fire season exists. A
moist pattern will likely keep significant fire activity at bay even
though the snowpack is low.

Normal fire season progression across the

contiguous U.S. and Alaska shown by monthly
fire density (number of fires per unit area). Fire
size and fire severity cannot be inferred from this
analysis. (Based on 1999-2010 FPA Data)

Geographic Area Forecasts

Alaska: Significant wildland fire potential is expected to be normal in March, though there is a
possibility that southern areas could become snow-free two weeks earlier than normal. April and May
have above normal significant wildland fire potential over southern and southwestern Alaska. The MayJune forecast is for significant wildland fire potential to return to normal in June.
This winter has been extremely warm across the state. Much of southern Alaska has very little snow,
leaving wind-blown areas virtually snow-free. Anchorage set a new warm record, not dipping below 0F
for all of 2014. Northern Alaska has snow on the ground, but not nearly as much as normal. Interior
Alaska had its first -40F to -50F stretch at the end of January, which is extremely late in the year. After
the wet summer of 2014, drought had not been a concern, but now the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates
Abnormally Dry conditions in portions of the Interior. The significantly low snowpack has persisted
and in some areas worsened with unusually warm, above-freezing temperatures. This low snowpack
may lead to a vigorous early fire season particularly in south central and southwestern Alaska. The last
week of February has seen much above normal temperatures with above freezing temperatures as far
north as Bettles, above the Arctic Circle.
Long range forecast models indicate, with some confidence, that significantly warmer-than-normal
temperatures will continue to dominate the state, particularly over southern and southwestern Alaska
through the spring and into the summer months. There is a slight tilt towards wetter-than-normal
conditions through March along the Gulf of Alaska coast and a bit inland. Otherwise, precipitation
anomalies are not expected. Alaska typically has most of its snowpack established by now, and
without significant snowfall, the potential for rapid snowmelt and a quick transition into a busy early fire
season is high.
Northwest: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
As has been the case since October, the Northwest Geographic Area endured warmer-than-normal
temperatures in February 2015. Some areas in eastern Oregon and eastern Washington have
averaged six to nine degrees above normal for the month. This is an unusually high departure from
normal temperature. Precipitation in February fell mainly during a series of wet and warm storms from
Feb 2nd through 9th but then tapered off to dry weather until the end of the month. Some regions east
of the Cascades remain unusually dry, such as central and southeastern Oregon and central
Washington.
Overall, it has been an unusually warm autumn and winter for the Northwest and all the western
states. Because of the prevailing warmth, snowpack over the higher terrain of the region is dismal.
Many SNOTEL reporting stations in the Cascades have no snow at all in Oregon while in Washington
only stations near the Canadian border are anywhere close to normal. Stations reporting in the
Oregon Cascades are generally below 30 percent of normal while in Washington reporting stations
range from zero to 60 percent of normal from south to north.
Overall, no fundamental change in the warm pattern is expected over the western states.
Accumulation of snow to normal levels appears very unlikely in March and April since no major
weather pattern shift is expected.
Northern California and Hawaii: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook
period in Northern California. Above normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the same
period for most of Hawaii.
For northern California, February was another drier-than-normal month in most areas. After a wet
November through December, the region is drying out rapidly and snowpack is near record low levels
for the end of February.

Near normal precipitation is expected for March through June. However, current snowpack is less
than 20 percent of normal and seasonal snowpack totals by the end of winter will likely remain
significantly below normal.
For Hawaii, despite a wet 2014, most of the islands (with the exception of Kauai) have become very
dry over the past three to four months with many of the southern islands receiving half or less of
normal precipitation. Drought indices have steadily risen to above normal levels and there has been
increased wildfire activity recently. With dry conditions continuing and abundant fuels from last years
wet weather on the landscape, above normal significant wildland fire activity is expected for the entire
outlook period.
Southern California: Significant wildland fire potential is expected to be normal for March and April,
but above normal for portions of the Geographic Area during the May and June outlook period.
A strong ridge of high pressure parked off the coast deflected the storm track north of the district
during the critical rainy season months of January and February. As a result, temperatures were well
above normal during the first two months of the year. Some locations in southern California were well
on their way to having the warmest February on record before slightly cooler, onshore flow returned to
the state. A few weak systems brought some rainfall to southern California in early January and again
the last week of February but otherwise, the southern part of the state has been completely dry.
Across central California, conditions swung from very wet to very dry. Precipitation over the far
northern part of the district has been close to normal due to two very wet storms, but south of Pt.
Conception, precipitation is less than a third of normal since January 1st. Due to the tropical origin of
the pair of storms over central California, snow levels were very high and the Sierra snowpack
remains far below normal for the fourth year in a row.
Long range models indicate a return of wetter weather for March and April which may keep significant
wildland fire potential in check despite drier-than-average soil moisture and poor high elevation
snowpack. As the weather turns warmer and drier in May and June, expect significant wildland fire
potential to climb to above normal. Due to the rainfall in late November and December, a heavier
grass crop has appeared compared to the past three years, and a higher number of grass fires may
occur in May and June. Mid slope areas and higher elevations will see significant wildland fire
potential climb in June due to the expectation of above normal temperatures this summer. Lower
elevations, including the coastal plains, may continue to see near normal fire potential through June
due to onshore flow and marine layer influences. But these areas will likely join the rest of the district
in seeing above normal significant wildland fire potential later this summer.
Northern Rockies: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period. Normal
during this time of year indicates out-of-season conditions.
Drought signals are still generally absent from the region, with the exception of some short term
drying over eastern North Dakota. A very warm period occurred over northern Idaho and most of
Montana the last week of January through about the 20th of February. Precipitation over the past
month has been limited to east of the Continental Divide, but for the winter as a whole, only far
eastern Montana and much of North Dakota have been drier-than-normal. The periods of warm
chinook flow during this time melted snow accumulations over all but the highest elevations east of
the Continental Divide in Montana, and dried fine fuels enough to allow sporadic grass and brush fire
activity. This is not an unusual occurrence as these warm dry periods in winter occur most years to
some degree. Lower elevations in Idaho and western Montana lost all their snow cover, and
significant losses occurred at middle and higher elevations on south and west facing slopes and
ridges. Some rainfall did occur in these areas and in central and eastern Montana, much of which ran
off quickly. Current snow water equivalent measurements are showing only 56 to 77 percent of normal
snowpack in northern Idaho and far northwestern Montana, and 80 to 110 percent of normal over
western and central Montana.

Great Basin: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period.
Average temperatures over the last 30 days were 5 to 14 degrees above normal over the entire Great
Basin. Precipitation over parts of central and southwestern Idaho, central Utah, and northwestern
Nevada was near to above normal. The highest precipitation amounts were over western and
northwestern Nevada where it ranged from 125 to 200 percent of normal. With well-above normal
temperatures, only minor impacts were observed to the snowpack. Precipitation since October 1 is
still well-below normal across most of the Great Basin, with the exception of central and southwestern
Idaho, where precipitation is 110 to 150 percent of normal. Extreme to exceptional drought continues
over western and central Nevada, with abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought over most the
rest of the Great Basin. The drought conditions are expected to persist through the end of May 2015
across the Great Basin.
The strong west coast ridge that has kept much of the West warm and relatively dry during February
is breaking down to allow for storm systems to move through the Great Basin through much of March.
Average temperatures in early March will likely be near normal in most areas or even below normal at
times due to an increase in storms moving through the area. At this time it looks like most areas of the
Great Basin will see precipitation with most of the storms moving through. Longer range models are
still trying to keep some chances of precipitation in April and possibly May, however there is still low
confidence in precipitation later in the spring.
Southwest: Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for March and April. For May and
June significant wildland fire potential will be below normal.
So far this winter, temperatures have averaged near to below normal from around the New Mexico
central mountain chain eastward into west Texas, but slightly above normal further west. Precipitation
has been a mix of above and below normal, depending on location. The driest area overall has been
across northwest Arizona. Snowpack so far this winter has been below normal with the lowest
amounts across eastern and central Arizona.
An east-central Pacific trough, with a western Canadian ridge, as well as an eastern/southeastern
U.S. trough has been the overall weather pattern for the past several months. This is expected to
change for the ever-important March-May period with an active jet stream frequently positioned from
the northern Pacific towards the west coast and eastward over the Southwest Geographic Area. This
is expected to be a cooler pattern for the region overall. Above normal precipitation is expected for
many areas, especially along and east of the Continental Divide.
Rocky Mountain: Normal significant wildland fire potential is anticipated for much of the Rocky
Mountain Geographic Area for late winter through spring. A later than average start to the core fire
season is predicted, mainly in south-central Colorado. Above normal significant wildland fire potential
is possible during the April pre-greenup period across portions of the eastern plains, especially north.
Precipitation amounts for the month of February were above Normal east of the Continental Divide.
West of The Divide, precipitation totals were below normal, but late-month storm systems alleviated
these deficits, especially in southwest Colorado. Snowpack was also below normal west of The
Divide, with some late-month relief also. Long term drought persists primarily across far southern
Colorado and much of Kansas, with lesser drought indices across portions of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Moderate drought has emerged across much of western Colorado into southwest Wyoming.
An active weather pattern is predicted during the early portion of March with continued opportunities
for precipitation. Longer range predictors for the upcoming spring months, which are typically among
our wettest of the year, point toward normal temperature and precipitation, with associated mountain
snow-pack near normal as well. A slightly drier than normal regime is more likely this spring across
the eastern plains, especially in northern sections.

Eastern Area: An earlier start to the fire season is expected with conditions escalating to above
normal significant wildland fire potential across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward
into Ohio through the period.
Thirty to ninety day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were below normal levels through much
of the winter season of 2014-2015 across portions of the Upper and Mid-Mississippi Valley as well as
the western and central Mid-Atlantic States northward into western New York. Abnormally dry
conditions were indicated across much of Minnesota, southwestern Missouri, central Pennsylvania,
and southwestern New York.
Colder than normal conditions will likely linger into March across much of the Eastern Area before
transitioning to above normal temperature trends over the Great Lakes later in the month. Above
normal temperatures are forecast to spread eastward into the Northeast into April and then south into
the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley into May.
Drier-than-normal conditions overall are expected to persist into March across the Great Lakes
spreading into the Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward into Lower Ohio River Valley as April progresses.
Drier-than-normal conditions overall are forecast across much of the Eastern Area in May. This will
likely lead to above normal fire potential over the western Great Lakes later in March and April and
spreading south and east as the spring progresses.
Southern Area: Below normal significant wildland fire potential is expected for the outlook period
from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic. An area from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio
Valley will increase to above normal significant wildland fire potential in April but return to normal in
May and June.
Despite a progressive weather pattern with precipitation every 5 to 7 days, cumulative precipitation
amounts were below normal in February, especially in western Kentucky/Tennessee, eastern
Arkansas, and south Florida.
This progressive storm pattern will continue through March and into April with cold air masses
producing an overall trend of below normal temperatures and periods of post-frontal low humidity and
gusty winds. There remains some risk of below normal precipitation in the same areas described
above. The complicating factor is the frequency of storm systems that may produce below normal
precipitation, but still limit significant and persisting fire activity. Southern Florida rain fall is still
expected to be lean into March with higher rain fall totals in April. The May/June timeframe is less
clear.

Outlook Objectives
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook is intended as a decision support tool for
wildland fire managers, providing an assessment of current weather and fuels conditions and how
these will evolve in the next four months. The objective is to assist fire managers in making proactive
decisions that will improve protection of life, property and natural resources, increase fire fighter safety
and effectiveness, and reduce firefighting costs.
For questions about this outlook please contact the National Interagency Fire Center at (208) 387-5050
or your local Geographic Area Predictive Services Unit.
Note: Additional Geographic Area assessments may be available at the specific GACC websites. The GACC websites can
also be accessed through the NICC webpage at: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm